Part 1. Collect Data and Summarize How Innovations are Measured¶

Text Analysis¶

Based on Global Innovation Index 2023:¶

In [ ]:
# upload GII 2023 file
from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()
Upload widget is only available when the cell has been executed in the current browser session. Please rerun this cell to enable.
Saving global-innovation-index-2023-16th-edition.pdf to global-innovation-index-2023-16th-edition.pdf
In [ ]:
try:
    import PyPDF2
except:
    !pip install PyPDF2
    import PyPDF2
import PyPDF2
pdf_path = 'global-innovation-index-2023-16th-edition.pdf'

with open(pdf_path, 'rb') as file:
    reader = PyPDF2.PdfReader(file)
Collecting PyPDF2
  Downloading pypdf2-3.0.1-py3-none-any.whl (232 kB)
     ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 232.6/232.6 kB 4.6 MB/s eta 0:00:00
Installing collected packages: PyPDF2
Successfully installed PyPDF2-3.0.1
In [ ]:
# Top 20 frequent words in the whole pdf file
# Stop words, conjuctions, numbers are not included
import PyPDF2
import re
from collections import Counter
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from nltk.corpus import stopwords

# Download NLTK stopwords data
import nltk
nltk.download('stopwords')

# Function to extract text from a PDF file
def extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path):
    with open(pdf_path, 'rb') as file:
        reader = PyPDF2.PdfReader(file)
        text = ''
        for page_number in range(len(reader.pages)):
            page = reader.pages[page_number]
            text += page.extract_text()
    return text

# Function to find the most frequent words
def find_most_frequent_words(text, top_n=20):
    # Tokenize and convert to lowercase, excluding numbers and single-letter words
    words = re.findall(r'\b[^\d\W]+\b', text.lower())

    # Remove stop words and single-letter words
    stop_words = set(stopwords.words('english'))
    words = [word for word in words if word not in stop_words and len(word) > 2]  # Adjust length as needed

    word_counts = Counter(words)
    return word_counts.most_common(top_n)

pdf_path = 'global-innovation-index-2023-16th-edition.pdf'
pdf_text = extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path)

# Find the 20 most frequent words (exclude numbers, stop words, and conjunctions) regardless of capitalization
most_frequent_words = find_most_frequent_words(pdf_text, top_n=20)

# Display the results
for word, count in most_frequent_words:
    print(f'{word}: {count} occurrences')

# Plot the results
words, counts = zip(*most_frequent_words)
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
plt.bar(words, counts, color='skyblue')
plt.xlabel('Words')
plt.ylabel('Frequency')
plt.title('Top 20 Most Frequent Words (Excluding Numbers and Stop Words, Regardless of Capitalization)')
plt.xticks(rotation=45, ha='right')
plt.show()
[nltk_data] Downloading package stopwords to /root/nltk_data...
[nltk_data]   Package stopwords is already up-to-date!
gdp: 4114 occurrences
ppp: 2179 occurrences
trade: 1277 occurrences
total: 1180 occurrences
knowledge: 969 occurrences
pop: 942 occurrences
top: 935 occurrences
innovation: 808 occurrences
data: 768 occurrences
rank: 725 occurrences
business: 724 occurrences
market: 696 occurrences
origin: 677 occurrences
global: 661 occurrences
index: 654 occurrences
services: 602 occurrences
value: 594 occurrences
ict: 569 occurrences
exports: 557 occurrences
environment: 556 occurrences
In [ ]:
# Count the frequency of key words which are relevant to innovation factors
import re

# Function to extract text from a PDF file
def extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path):
    with open(pdf_path, 'rb') as file:
        reader = PyPDF2.PdfReader(file)
        text = ''
        for page_number in range(len(reader.pages)):
            page = reader.pages[page_number]
            text += page.extract_text()
    return text

# Function to count word frequency
def count_word_frequency(text, target_words):
    word_counts = {}
    for word in target_words:
        # Use a case-insensitive regular expression to find the word
        matches = re.findall(fr'\b{re.escape(word)}\b', text, flags=re.IGNORECASE)
        word_counts[word] = len(matches)
    return word_counts

pdf_path = 'global-innovation-index-2023-16th-edition.pdf'
target_words = ['education','research and development',
                'market sophistication', 'business environment',
                'knowledge and technology outputs', 'creative outputs']  # Replace with the words you want to count

pdf_text = extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path)
word_frequency = count_word_frequency(pdf_text, target_words)

# Print the word frequencies
for word, count in word_frequency.items():
    print(f'{word}: {count} occurrences')
education: 427 occurrences
research and development: 137 occurrences
market sophistication: 139 occurrences
business environment: 136 occurrences
knowledge and technology outputs: 139 occurrences
creative outputs: 140 occurrences
In [ ]:
# Create a word cloud for GII2023
# Only the first 75 pages are used for extracting (Economy profiles are not included)
from wordcloud import WordCloud
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

def extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path, start_page, end_page):
    with open(pdf_path, 'rb') as file:
        reader = PyPDF2.PdfReader(file)
        text = ''
        for page_number in range(start_page - 1, end_page):
            page = reader.pages[page_number]
            text += page.extract_text()
    return text

pdf_path = 'global-innovation-index-2023-16th-edition.pdf'
start_page = 1
end_page = 75  # Replace with the end page number you desire

text_from_pages = extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path, start_page, end_page)
#print(text_from_pages)
In [ ]:
def generate_word_cloud(text):
    # Generate a word cloud for GII 2023
    wordcloud = WordCloud(width=800, height=500, background_color='white').generate(text)

    # Display the word cloud using Matplotlib
    plt.figure(figsize=(10, 8))
    plt.imshow(wordcloud, interpolation='bilinear')
    plt.axis('off')
    plt.title('Word Cloud for GII_2023')
    plt.show()

# Example usage
pdf_path = 'global-innovation-index-2023-16th-edition.pdf'
start_page = 1
end_page = 75  # Replace with the end page number you desire

text_from_pages_GII2023 = extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path, start_page, end_page)

# Generate and display the word cloud
generate_word_cloud(text_from_pages_GII2023)

Innovations in different countries¶

6 Countries selected: United Kingdom, United States of America, Japan, Republic of Korea (Korea), Switzerland, Singapore

Innovation in Switzerland:¶

In [ ]:
from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()
Upload widget is only available when the cell has been executed in the current browser session. Please rerun this cell to enable.
Saving innovation-switzerland.pdf to innovation-switzerland.pdf
In [ ]:
import PyPDF2
from wordcloud import WordCloud
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt


def extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path):
    with open(pdf_path, 'rb') as file:
        reader = PyPDF2.PdfReader(file)
        text = ''
        for page_number in range(len(reader.pages)):
            page = reader.pages[page_number]
            text += page.extract_text()
    return text

pdf_path = 'innovation-switzerland.pdf'

text_from_pages_swiss = extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path)
#print(text_from_pages_swiss)
In [ ]:
import nltk
from nltk.tokenize import word_tokenize
nltk.download('punkt')
def preprocess_text(text):
    # Remove punctuation, convert to lowercase
    text = re.sub(r'\b\w+\b', lambda w: w.group().lower(), text)
    text = re.sub(r'\b[^\d\w\s]+\b', '', text)

    # Tokenize and remove stopwords
    stop_words = set(stopwords.words('english'))
    words = word_tokenize(text)
    words = [word for word in words if word not in stop_words]

    return ' '.join(words)

pdf_path = 'innovation-switzerland.pdf'
pdf_text_swiss = extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path)

# Preprocess the text
preprocessed_text_swiss = preprocess_text(pdf_text_swiss)

# Create and generate a word cloud
wordcloud = WordCloud(width=800, height=400, background_color='white').generate(preprocessed_text_swiss)

# Display the word cloud using Matplotlib
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
plt.imshow(wordcloud, interpolation='bilinear')
plt.axis('off')
plt.title('Word Cloud Switzerland')
plt.show()
[nltk_data] Downloading package punkt to /root/nltk_data...
[nltk_data]   Package punkt is already up-to-date!

Innovation in the United Kingdom:¶

In [ ]:
from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()
Upload widget is only available when the cell has been executed in the current browser session. Please rerun this cell to enable.
Saving uk-science-technology-framework.pdf to uk-science-technology-framework.pdf
In [ ]:
# Stop words, conjuctions, numbers excluded
try:
    import PyPDF2
except:
    !pip install PyPDF2
    import PyPDF2

import re
from wordcloud import WordCloud
from collections import Counter
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from nltk.corpus import stopwords

# Download NLTK stopwords data
import nltk
nltk.download('stopwords')

# Function to extract text from a PDF file
def extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path):
    with open(pdf_path, 'rb') as file:
        reader = PyPDF2.PdfReader(file)
        text = ''
        for page_number in range(len(reader.pages)):
            page = reader.pages[page_number]
            text += page.extract_text()
    return text

# Function to find the most frequent words
def find_most_frequent_words(text, top_n=20):
    # Tokenize and convert to lowercase, excluding numbers
    words = re.findall(r'\b[^\d\W]+\b', text.lower())

    # Remove stop words
    stop_words = set(stopwords.words('english'))
    words = [word for word in words if word not in stop_words]

    word_counts = Counter(words)
    return word_counts.most_common(top_n)

# Example usage
pdf_files = [
    "uk-science-technology-framework.pdf",
    "uk-international-technology-strategy-web-version.pdf",
    "uk-innovation-strategy.pdf",
    "UK Build Back Better.pdf",
    "evidence-for-innovation-strategy.pdf"
]

# Extract text from each PDF and combine
pdf_text = ""
for file in pdf_files:
    pdf_text += extract_text_from_pdf(file)

# Removing specific words from the text before generating the word cloud
words_to_remove = ['UK', 'innovation', 'new', 'strategy', 'world', 'across', 'will']
for word in words_to_remove:
    pdf_text = pdf_text.replace(word, "")

# Create a new word cloud with the updated text
wordcloud = WordCloud(width=800, height=400, background_color ='white').generate(pdf_text)

# Display the updated word cloud using matplotlib
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
plt.imshow(wordcloud, interpolation='bilinear')
plt.axis('off')
plt.title('Word Cloud The United Kingdom')
plt.show()
Collecting PyPDF2
  Downloading pypdf2-3.0.1-py3-none-any.whl (232 kB)
     ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 232.6/232.6 kB 4.2 MB/s eta 0:00:00
Installing collected packages: PyPDF2
Successfully installed PyPDF2-3.0.1
[nltk_data] Downloading package stopwords to /root/nltk_data...
[nltk_data]   Unzipping corpora/stopwords.zip.

Innovation in Korea:¶

In [ ]:
from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()
Upload widget is only available when the cell has been executed in the current browser session. Please rerun this cell to enable.
Saving korea.pdf to korea.pdf
In [ ]:
# Convert PDF file to text page-by-page
pdf_summary_text = ""
pdf_file_path = 'korea.pdf'
pdf_file = open('korea.pdf', 'rb')
pdf_reader = PyPDF2.PdfReader(pdf_file)
paper_text = ""
for page_num in range(len(pdf_reader.pages)):
    page_text = pdf_reader.pages[page_num].extract_text().lower()
    paper_text += page_text+"\n\n"

from wordcloud import WordCloud
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt


wordcloud = WordCloud(
    width=800,
    height=400,
    background_color='white',
    max_words=200,
    colormap='viridis'
).generate(paper_text)

# show word cloud
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
plt.imshow(wordcloud, interpolation='bilinear')
plt.axis("off")
plt.title('Word Cloud Korea')
plt.show()

Innovation in Japan:¶

In [ ]:
from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()
Upload widget is only available when the cell has been executed in the current browser session. Please rerun this cell to enable.
Saving Japan_innovation_strategy.pdf to Japan_innovation_strategy (2).pdf
In [ ]:
# Top 20 frequent words in the Japan Report
# Stop words, conjuctions, numbers excluded
import PyPDF2
import re
from collections import Counter
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from nltk.corpus import stopwords


import nltk
nltk.download('stopwords')

# Function to extract text from a PDF file
def extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path):
    with open(pdf_path, 'rb') as file:
        reader = PyPDF2.PdfReader(file)
        text = ''
        for page_number in range(len(reader.pages)):
            page = reader.pages[page_number]
            text += page.extract_text()
    return text

# Function to find the most frequent words
def find_most_frequent_words(text, top_n=20):
    # Tokenize and convert to lowercase, excluding numbers
    words = re.findall(r'\b[^\d\W]+\b', text.lower())

    # Remove stop words
    stop_words = set(stopwords.words('english'))
    words = [word for word in words if word not in stop_words]

    word_counts = Counter(words)
    return word_counts.most_common(top_n)

# Example usage
pdf_path = 'Japan_innovation_strategy.pdf'
pdf_text = extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path)

# Find the 20 most frequent words (excluding numbers, stop words, and conjunctions) regardless of capitalization
most_frequent_words = find_most_frequent_words(pdf_text, top_n=20)

# Display the results
for word, count in most_frequent_words:
    print(f'{word}: {count} occurrences')

# Plot the results
words, counts = zip(*most_frequent_words)
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
plt.bar(words, counts, color='skyblue')
plt.xlabel('Words')
plt.ylabel('Frequency')
plt.title('Top 20 Most Frequent Words Japan')
plt.xticks(rotation=45, ha='right')
plt.show()
[nltk_data] Downloading package stopwords to /root/nltk_data...
[nltk_data]   Package stopwords is already up-to-date!
society: 22 occurrences
innovation: 15 occurrences
technology: 14 occurrences
social: 11 occurrences
science: 9 occurrences
growth: 7 occurrences
economic: 6 occurrences
technologies: 6 occurrences
quantum: 6 occurrences
new: 6 occurrences
world: 5 occurrences
problems: 5 occurrences
japan: 5 occurrences
research: 5 occurrences
strategy: 4 occurrences
pillars: 4 occurrences
future: 4 occurrences
advanced: 4 occurrences
r: 4 occurrences
investment: 4 occurrences
In [ ]:
from wordcloud import WordCloud, STOPWORDS
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt


def blue_color_func(word, font_size, position, orientation, random_state=None, **kwargs):
    return f"hsl(210, 100%, {np.random.randint(25, 75)}%)"

# Initialize the word cloud with custom settings
wordcloud = WordCloud(
    width=800,
    height=400,
    background_color='white',
    max_words=200,  # Maximum number of words
    stopwords=STOPWORDS,
    color_func=blue_color_func,
    random_state=42
).generate(pdf_text)

# Plot the word cloud
plt.figure(figsize=(15, 7.5))
plt.imshow(wordcloud, interpolation='bilinear')
plt.axis('off')  # Turn off the axis
plt.title('Word Cloud Japan')
plt.show()

Innovation in the United States:¶

In [ ]:
from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()
Upload widget is only available when the cell has been executed in the current browser session. Please rerun this cell to enable.
Saving NDSTS-FINAL-WEB-VERSION.PDF to NDSTS-FINAL-WEB-VERSION.PDF
Saving Population2030.pdf to Population2030.pdf
Saving US-Gov-National-Standards-Strategy-2023.pdf to US-Gov-National-Standards-Strategy-2023.pdf
In [ ]:
try:
    import PyPDF2
except:
    !pip install PyPDF2
    import PyPDF2

import re
from wordcloud import WordCloud
from collections import Counter
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from nltk.corpus import stopwords

# Download NLTK stopwords data
import nltk
nltk.download('stopwords')

# Function to extract text from a PDF file
def extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path):
    with open(pdf_path, 'rb') as file:
        reader = PyPDF2.PdfReader(file)
        text = ''
        for page_number in range(len(reader.pages)):
            page = reader.pages[page_number]
            text += page.extract_text()
    return text

# Function to find the most frequent words
def find_most_frequent_words(text, top_n=20):
    # Tokenize and convert to lowercase, excluding numbers
    words = re.findall(r'\b[^\d\W]+\b', text.lower())

    # Remove stop words
    stop_words = set(stopwords.words('english'))
    words = [word for word in words if word not in stop_words]

    word_counts = Counter(words)
    return word_counts.most_common(top_n)

# Example usage
pdf_files = [
    "NDSTS-FINAL-WEB-VERSION.PDF",
    "Population2030.pdf",
    "US-Gov-National-Standards-Strategy-2023.pdf"
]

# Extract text from each PDF and combine
pdf_text = ""
for file in pdf_files:
    pdf_text += extract_text_from_pdf(file)

# Removing specific words from the text before generating the word cloud
words_to_remove = ['US', 'countries', 'development', 'per', 'cent','develpment','growth','years', 'will']
for word in words_to_remove:
    pdf_text = pdf_text.replace(word, "")

# Create a new word cloud with the updated text
wordcloud = WordCloud(width=800, height=400, background_color ='white').generate(pdf_text)

# Display the updated word cloud using matplotlib
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
plt.imshow(wordcloud, interpolation='bilinear')
plt.axis('off')
plt.show()
Collecting PyPDF2
  Downloading pypdf2-3.0.1-py3-none-any.whl (232 kB)
     ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 232.6/232.6 kB 3.1 MB/s eta 0:00:00
Installing collected packages: PyPDF2
Successfully installed PyPDF2-3.0.1
[nltk_data] Downloading package stopwords to /root/nltk_data...
[nltk_data]   Unzipping corpora/stopwords.zip.

Innovation in Singapore:¶

In [ ]:
from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()
Upload widget is only available when the cell has been executed in the current browser session. Please rerun this cell to enable.
Saving The National Innovation System of Singapore.pdf to The National Innovation System of Singapore.pdf
In [ ]:
# Extract text from pdf file:
import PyPDF2
from wordcloud import WordCloud
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt


def extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path):
    with open(pdf_path, 'rb') as file:
        reader = PyPDF2.PdfReader(file)
        text = ''
        for page_number in range(len(reader.pages)):
            page = reader.pages[page_number]
            text += page.extract_text()
    return text

# Example usage
pdf_path = 'The National Innovation System of Singapore.pdf'

text_from_pages_singapore = extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path)
#print(text_from_pages_singapore)
In [ ]:
def preprocess_text(text):
    # Remove punctuation, convert to lowercase
    text = re.sub(r'\b\w+\b', lambda w: w.group().lower(), text)
    text = re.sub(r'\b[^\d\w\s]+\b', '', text)

    # Tokenize and remove stopwords
    stop_words = set(stopwords.words('english'))
    words = word_tokenize(text)
    words = [word for word in words if word not in stop_words]

    return ' '.join(words)

# Example usage
pdf_path = 'The National Innovation System of Singapore.pdf'
pdf_text_singapore = extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path)

# Preprocess the text
preprocessed_text_singapore = preprocess_text(pdf_text_singapore)

# Create and generate a word cloud
wordcloud = WordCloud(width=800, height=400, background_color='white').generate(preprocessed_text_singapore)

# Display the word cloud using Matplotlib
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
plt.imshow(wordcloud, interpolation='bilinear')
plt.axis('off')
plt.title('Word Cloud Singapore')
plt.show()

Identify Innovation Measurement and Factors by 21 Reports¶

7 Countries selected: Canada, United Kingdom, United States of America, Japan, Republic of Korea (Korea), Switzerland, Singapore

In [ ]:
from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()
Upload widget is only available when the cell has been executed in the current browser session. Please rerun this cell to enable.
Saving annual-report-2017-2018-eng.pdf to annual-report-2017-2018-eng.pdf
Saving bridging_the_gap_en.pdf to bridging_the_gap_en.pdf
Saving budget-2017-en.pdf to budget-2017-en.pdf
Saving evidence-for-innovation-strategy.pdf to evidence-for-innovation-strategy.pdf
Saving factsheet-innovation-switzerland-s-ge-en-2020_1.pdf to factsheet-innovation-switzerland-s-ge-en-2020_1.pdf
Saving innovation_challenges_report_-_en_final_oct14.pdf to innovation_challenges_report_-_en_final_oct14.pdf
Saving Innovation-for-a-better-Canada.pdf to Innovation-for-a-better-Canada.pdf
Saving Japan_innovation_strategy.pdf to Japan_innovation_strategy.pdf
Saving mitacs_-_joining_the_dots_en.pdf to mitacs_-_joining_the_dots_en.pdf
Saving mitacs_skills_innovation_en.pdf to mitacs_skills_innovation_en.pdf
Saving NDSTS-FINAL-WEB-VERSION.PDF to NDSTS-FINAL-WEB-VERSION.PDF
Saving New_ISEDC_19-044_INNOVATION-SKILLS_E_web.pdf to New_ISEDC_19-044_INNOVATION-SKILLS_E_web.pdf
Saving Population2030.pdf to Population2030.pdf
Saving S2-Korea-s-Digital-Platform-Government.pdf to S2-Korea-s-Digital-Platform-Government.pdf
Saving The National Innovation System of Singapore.pdf to The National Innovation System of Singapore.pdf
Saving UK Build Back Better.pdf to UK Build Back Better.pdf
Saving uk-innovation-strategy.pdf to uk-innovation-strategy.pdf
Saving uk-international-technology-strategy-web-version.pdf to uk-international-technology-strategy-web-version.pdf
Saving uk-science-technology-framework.pdf to uk-science-technology-framework.pdf
Saving US-Gov-National-Standards-Strategy-2023.pdf to US-Gov-National-Standards-Strategy-2023.pdf
Saving wipo-pub-2000-2023-en-main-report-global-innovation-index-2023-16th-edition.pdf to wipo-pub-2000-2023-en-main-report-global-innovation-index-2023-16th-edition.pdf
In [ ]:
# Stop words, conjuctions, numbers excluded
try:
    import PyPDF2
except:
    !pip install PyPDF2
    import PyPDF2

import re
from wordcloud import WordCloud
from collections import Counter
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from nltk.corpus import stopwords

# Download NLTK stopwords data
import nltk
nltk.download('stopwords')
Collecting PyPDF2
  Downloading pypdf2-3.0.1-py3-none-any.whl (232 kB)
     ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 232.6/232.6 kB 3.4 MB/s eta 0:00:00
Installing collected packages: PyPDF2
Successfully installed PyPDF2-3.0.1
[nltk_data] Downloading package stopwords to /root/nltk_data...
[nltk_data]   Unzipping corpora/stopwords.zip.
Out[ ]:
True
In [ ]:
# Data Cleaning
# Function to extract text from a PDF file
def extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path):
    with open(pdf_path, 'rb') as file:
        reader = PyPDF2.PdfReader(file)
        text = ''
        for page_number in range(len(reader.pages)):
            page = reader.pages[page_number]
            text += page.extract_text()
    return text

# Example usage
pdf_files = [
    'wipo-pub-2000-2023-en-main-report-global-innovation-index-2023-16th-edition.pdf',
    'factsheet-innovation-switzerland-s-ge-en-2020_1.pdf',
    'S2-Korea-s-Digital-Platform-Government.pdf',
    'Japan_innovation_strategy.pdf',
    "NDSTS-FINAL-WEB-VERSION.PDF",
    "Population2030.pdf",
    "US-Gov-National-Standards-Strategy-2023.pdf",
    'The National Innovation System of Singapore.pdf',
    "uk-science-technology-framework.pdf",
    "uk-international-technology-strategy-web-version.pdf",
    "uk-innovation-strategy.pdf",
    "UK Build Back Better.pdf",
    "evidence-for-innovation-strategy.pdf",
    'annual-report-2017-2018-eng.pdf',
    'bridging_the_gap_en.pdf',
    'budget-2017-en.pdf',
    'innovation_challenges_report_-_en_final_oct14.pdf',
    'Innovation-for-a-better-Canada.pdf',
    'mitacs_-_joining_the_dots_en.pdf',
    'mitacs_skills_innovation_en.pdf',
    'New_ISEDC_19-044_INNOVATION-SKILLS_E_web.pdf'
]


# Extract text from each PDF and combine
pdf_text = ""
for file in pdf_files:
    pdf_text += extract_text_from_pdf(file)
In [ ]:
# keep a copy
pdf_text_copy = pdf_text[:]
In [ ]:
# remove exact word from the text before generating the word cloud
word_to_remove_1 = ['pop', 'ing', 'US', 'UK', 'n', 'r', 'e']
remove = '|'.join(r'\b{}\b'.format(re.escape(word)) for word in word_to_remove_1)
pdf_text_copy= re.sub(remove, '', pdf_text_copy)
In [ ]:
# Removing specific words from the text before generating the word cloud
words_to_remove = ['will', 'rank', 'index', 'world', 'high', 'total', 'top',
                   'value', 'innovation', 'per', 'countries', 'development',
                   'cent','develpment','growth','years', 'new', 'strategy',
                   'across', 'bn', 'year', 'use', 'level',
                   'deals', 'origin', 'mn', 'canada', 'canadian',
                   'also', 'including', 'access', '\n']
for word in words_to_remove:
    pdf_text_copy = re.sub(word, "", pdf_text_copy.lower())
In [ ]:
# WordCloud and Word Frequency
# Function to find the most frequent words
def find_most_frequent_words(text, top_n):
    # Tokenize and convert to lowercase, excluding numbers
    words = re.findall(r'\b[^\d\W]+\b', text.lower())

    # Remove stop words
    stop_words = set(stopwords.words('english'))
    words = [word for word in words if word not in stop_words]

    word_counts = Counter(words)
    return word_counts.most_common(top_n)

# Find the 40 most frequent words (exclude numbers, stop words, and conjunctions) regardless of capitalization
most_frequent_words = find_most_frequent_words(pdf_text_copy, top_n=40)

# Display the results
for word, count in most_frequent_words:
    print(f'{word}: {count} occurrences')

# Plot the results
words, counts = zip(*most_frequent_words)
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
plt.bar(words, counts, color='skyblue')
plt.xlabel('Words')
plt.ylabel('Frequency')
plt.title('Top 40 Most Frequent Words (Excluding Numbers Stop Words and Special Characters)')
plt.xticks(rotation=45, ha='right')
plt.show()
gdp: 4275 occurrences
ppp: 2180 occurrences
government: 1826 occurrences
research: 1662 occurrences
trade: 1600 occurrences
r: 1520 occurrences
business: 1508 occurrences
technology: 1424 occurrences
global: 1386 occurrences
data: 1308 occurrences
skills: 1219 occurrences
support: 1162 occurrences
knowledge: 1131 occurrences
services: 1058 occurrences
market: 973 occurrences
science: 964 occurrences
businesses: 930 occurrences
investment: 901 occurrences
industry: 841 occurrences
economic: 834 occurrences
technologies: 773 occurrences
economy: 765 occurrences
capital: 756 occurrences
income: 754 occurrences
education: 734 occurrences
national: 721 occurrences
infrastructure: 717 occurrences
environment: 697 occurrences
international: 673 occurrences
sector: 646 occurrences
population: 627 occurrences
funding: 626 occurrences
million: 614 occurrences
university: 609 occurrences
exports: 600 occurrences
ict: 591 occurrences
firms: 588 occurrences
work: 570 occurrences
tech: 567 occurrences
available: 558 occurrences
In [ ]:
# Create a new word cloud with the updated text
wordcloud = WordCloud(width=800, height=400, background_color ='white').generate(pdf_text_copy)

# Display the updated word cloud using matplotlib
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
plt.imshow(wordcloud, interpolation='bilinear')
plt.axis('off')
plt.title('Word Cloud for Top 40 Frequent Words')
plt.show()

Clustering to Find the Innovation Measurements¶

K-Means Clustering¶

In [ ]:
from nltk.tokenize import sent_tokenize
nltk.download('punkt')

# Function to clean text
def clean_text(text):
    # Remove special characters and digits
    cleaned = re.sub(r'[^a-zA-Z\s]', '', text, re.I|re.A)
    # Remove extra spaces
    cleaned = cleaned.strip()
    return cleaned

# Split the text into sentences
transcript_sentences = sent_tokenize(pdf_text_copy)

# Clean each sentence
cleaned_transcript = [clean_text(sentence) for sentence in transcript_sentences]
[nltk_data] Downloading package punkt to /root/nltk_data...
[nltk_data]   Package punkt is already up-to-date!
In [ ]:
from gensim.models import Word2Vec
from nltk.tokenize import word_tokenize

# Set of English stop words
stop_words = set(stopwords.words('english'))

# Tokenize and remove stop words
tokenized_transcript = [[word for word in word_tokenize(sentence.lower()) if word not in stop_words]
                       for sentence in cleaned_transcript]

# Train Word2Vec model
transcript_model = Word2Vec(tokenized_transcript, vector_size=100, window=5, min_count=1, workers=4)
In [ ]:
from sklearn.cluster import KMeans
import numpy as np
transcript_vectors = np.array([transcript_model.wv[word] for word, _ in most_frequent_words if word in transcript_model.wv])

# KMeans clustering
num_clusters = 5
transcript_kmeans = KMeans(n_clusters=num_clusters, random_state=0).fit(transcript_vectors)

# Assign each word to a cluster
word_cluster_labels = transcript_kmeans.labels_
for word, cluster in zip(most_frequent_words, word_cluster_labels):
    print(word, cluster)
('gdp', 4275) 2
('ppp', 2180) 2
('government', 1826) 0
('research', 1662) 1
('trade', 1600) 3
('r', 1520) 1
('business', 1508) 0
('technology', 1424) 1
('global', 1386) 1
('data', 1308) 4
('skills', 1219) 1
('support', 1162) 0
('knowledge', 1131) 2
('services', 1058) 3
('market', 973) 0
('science', 964) 1
('businesses', 930) 0
('investment', 901) 0
('industry', 841) 0
('economic', 834) 1
('technologies', 773) 1
('economy', 765) 4
('capital', 756) 0
('income', 754) 4
('education', 734) 0
('national', 721) 1
('infrastructure', 717) 1
('environment', 697) 0
('international', 673) 0
('sector', 646) 0
('population', 627) 4
('funding', 626) 0
('million', 614) 0
('university', 609) 1
('exports', 600) 3
('ict', 591) 3
('firms', 588) 0
('work', 570) 0
('tech', 567) 1
('available', 558) 4
/usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages/sklearn/cluster/_kmeans.py:870: FutureWarning: The default value of `n_init` will change from 10 to 'auto' in 1.4. Set the value of `n_init` explicitly to suppress the warning
  warnings.warn(
In [ ]:
from sklearn.decomposition import PCA
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy.spatial import ConvexHull

# Reduce dimensions (using PCA)
pca = PCA(n_components=2)
reduced_vectors = pca.fit_transform(transcript_vectors)

# Determine number of unique clusters
num_clusters = len(np.unique(transcript_kmeans.labels_))

# Generate a color palette with the same number of colors as clusters
colors = plt.cm.tab10(np.linspace(0, 1, num_clusters))

# Plot clusters with boundaries
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 8))

# Plot points with colors based on cluster label
for i, color in zip(range(num_clusters), colors):
    # Select the points that belong to the current cluster
    points = reduced_vectors[transcript_kmeans.labels_ == i]

    # Plot points with cluster color
    plt.scatter(points[:, 0], points[:, 1], c=[color], label=f'Cluster {i+1}')

    # Calculate the convex hull
    hull = ConvexHull(points)

    # Plot the convex hull
    for simplex in hull.simplices:
        plt.plot(points[simplex, 0], points[simplex, 1], c=color, lw=2)

# Annotate words
for i, word in enumerate(most_frequent_words):
    plt.annotate(word[0], xy=(reduced_vectors[i, 0], reduced_vectors[i, 1]), xytext=(5, 2),
                 textcoords='offset points', ha='right', va='bottom')

# Add legend
plt.title('K-Means Clustering with PCA for Top 40 Frequent Words')
plt.xlabel('Principal Component 1')
plt.ylabel('Principal Component 2')

plt.legend()

plt.show()

Hierarchical Clustering¶

In [ ]:
from sklearn.preprocessing import normalize
import scipy.cluster.hierarchy as sch
from scipy.cluster.hierarchy import ClusterWarning
from warnings import simplefilter
simplefilter("ignore", ClusterWarning)
from scipy import zeros as sci_zeros
from scipy.spatial.distance import euclidean
import pandas as pd
In [ ]:
hierarchical_df = pd.DataFrame(transcript_vectors, columns=[str(i) for i in range(100)])
hierarchical_df['word'] = most_frequent_words
hierarchical_df.head()
Out[ ]:
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ... 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 word
0 -0.040931 1.850250 2.119662 0.921297 -1.205153 -0.476608 2.753282 2.507986 -2.754706 1.097617 ... 1.210643 3.093227 0.033169 4.334396 0.576041 -0.418050 -0.112893 0.473023 -1.905070 (gdp, 4275)
1 0.924144 1.212314 1.324252 0.621084 -1.031327 -0.294056 1.972244 2.918112 -2.551270 0.696567 ... 1.924718 3.812440 0.649979 4.070718 1.959110 -0.607687 0.093566 0.625782 -2.708960 (ppp, 2180)
2 -0.403362 0.015838 0.617242 1.107581 -0.430967 -0.968608 2.681908 1.542306 -0.517952 -0.548056 ... 0.331150 -0.073956 0.496492 1.450592 0.184501 0.331876 -1.034551 0.797544 0.592050 (government, 1826)
3 -1.656122 1.113124 0.400824 0.660582 0.016417 -0.701617 2.875629 1.879950 -1.220748 -0.059630 ... 0.053125 0.535051 -0.562413 1.921014 -0.321322 1.742988 -1.003647 1.209130 0.259992 (research, 1662)
4 -2.048074 0.696605 1.358067 0.183600 -2.200032 -0.694631 3.004037 0.944650 -2.392390 -1.505533 ... 1.315291 1.050739 1.144548 2.928250 0.394462 0.155225 -0.466476 -1.182730 0.388381 (trade, 1600)

5 rows × 101 columns

In [ ]:
from scipy.cluster.hierarchy import linkage, dendrogram, fcluster
hierarchical_df.set_index('word', inplace=True)

# Perform hierarchical clustering on the features
linkage_matrix = linkage(hierarchical_df, method='complete', metric='euclidean')

# Create a dendrogram
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
dendrogram(linkage_matrix, labels=hierarchical_df.index, orientation='top', leaf_font_size=8)

# Display the plot
plt.title('Hierarchical Clustering for Top 40 Frequent Words')
plt.xlabel('Word')
plt.ylabel('Distance')
plt.xticks(rotation=90)
plt.show()
In [ ]:
# Perform hierarchical clustering on the features
linkage_matrix = linkage(hierarchical_df, method='complete', metric='euclidean')

# Create a dendrogram
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
dendrogram(linkage_matrix, labels=hierarchical_df.index, orientation='top', leaf_font_size=8)

# Determine the optimal number of clusters (you can adjust this value)
num_clusters = 5

# Cut the dendrogram to get clusters
clusters = fcluster(linkage_matrix, t=num_clusters, criterion='maxclust')

# Plot a dashed line indicating the number of clusters
plt.axhline(y=num_clusters, color='black', linestyle='--', label=f'Number of Clusters: {num_clusters}')

# Display the plot
plt.title('Hierarchical Clustering for Top 40 Frequent Words')
plt.xlabel('Word')
plt.ylabel('Distance')
plt.xticks(rotation=90)


plt.show()
In [ ]:
# Create a dictionary to group words by cluster
word_cluster_mapping = {cluster: [] for cluster in set(clusters)}
for word, cluster in zip(hierarchical_df.index, clusters):
    word_cluster_mapping[cluster].append(word)

# Print the result
for cluster, words in word_cluster_mapping.items():
    print(f"Cluster {cluster}: {words}")
Cluster 1: [('trade', 1600), ('services', 1058), ('exports', 600)]
Cluster 2: [('gdp', 4275), ('ppp', 2180), ('knowledge', 1131)]
Cluster 3: [('research', 1662), ('r', 1520), ('technology', 1424), ('global', 1386), ('data', 1308), ('skills', 1219), ('science', 964), ('investment', 901), ('economic', 834), ('technologies', 773), ('economy', 765), ('capital', 756), ('education', 734), ('national', 721), ('infrastructure', 717), ('international', 673), ('funding', 626), ('million', 614), ('university', 609), ('tech', 567), ('available', 558), ('digital', 553)]
Cluster 4: [('income', 754), ('population', 627)]
Cluster 5: [('government', 1826), ('business', 1508), ('support', 1162), ('market', 973), ('businesses', 930), ('industry', 841), ('environment', 697), ('sector', 646), ('firms', 588), ('work', 570)]

Compare Canada's Performance on Innovation Measurements with 6 Other Countries¶

6 Countries selected: United Kingdom, United States of America, Japan, Republic of Korea (Korea), Switzerland, Singapore

Knowledge and Technology Output Comparison¶

Find two factors under this measurment which Canada has the largest gap compared with other countries

In [ ]:
# upload the csv file which created by ourselves
from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()
Upload widget is only available when the cell has been executed in the current browser session. Please rerun this cell to enable.
Saving Knowledge.csv to Knowledge.csv
In [ ]:
import pandas as pd
df_countries = pd.read_csv('Knowledge.csv')
df_countries
Out[ ]:
Country knowledge and technology outputs score knowledge creation patents by origin/bn PPP$GDP PCT patents by origin/bn PPP$ GDP scientific and technical articles/bn PPP$GDP citable documents H-index knowledge impact labor productivity growth, % unicorn valuation, %GDP software spending, %GDP high-tech manufacturing, % knowledge diffusion intellectual property receipts, %total trade production and export complexity high-tech exports, %total trade ICT services exports, %total trade ISO 9001 quality/bn PPP$GDP
0 Canada 19 16 32 24 21 4 21 94 17 5 34 41 18 43 33 55 77
1 United Kingdom 7 9 16 20 16 1 4 86 7 2 22 9 9 10 22 20 23
2 United States of America 2 8 7 13 52 1 1 50 1 1 24 14 1 12 20 57 104
3 Japan 13 12 3 1 57 9 41 111 46 42 8 6 1 1 11 83 37
4 Korea 11 5 1 1 29 17 22 58 24 65 7 19 20 4 6 68 41
5 Switzerland 1 1 4 1 3 10 7 68 28 9 2 4 1 2 26 49 25
6 Singapore 10 20 24 11 33 22 2 31 8 59 1 13 16 5 4 46 42
In [ ]:
# plot the rankings between Canada and other countries based on each sub-category of knowledge and technology output
import seaborn as sns
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
df_countries.set_index('Country', inplace=True)
for col in df_countries.columns:
    sns.barplot(x=df_countries.index, y=df_countries[col], label=col)
    plt.title(f'{col} by countries')
    plt.xlabel('Country')
    plt.xticks(rotation=90)
    plt.ylabel('Ranking')
    plt.show()
In [ ]:
# A general plot, illustrate the ranking between Canada and other countries only based on the scores, provided by GII2023.
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from math import pi
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# Inverting the rankings
df_countries= df_countries.set_index('Country')
inverse_data = 132 - df_countries

# Number of variables
categories = list(inverse_data.columns)
N = len(categories)

# What will be the angle of each axis in the plot
angles = [n / float(N) * 2 * pi for n in range(N)]
angles += angles[:1]

# Radar chart plot
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 8), subplot_kw=dict(polar=True))
plt.xticks(angles[:-1], categories, color='black', size=8, rotation='vertical')

# Draw one country per time and highlight Canada
for country in inverse_data.index:
    values = inverse_data.loc[country].values.flatten().tolist()
    values += values[:1]
    if country == 'Canada':
        ax.plot(angles, values, linewidth=3, linestyle='solid', label=country, color='red')
    else:
        ax.plot(angles, values, linewidth=1, linestyle='solid', label=country)

# Add legend and adjust its position
plt.legend(loc='upper right', bbox_to_anchor=(1.2, 1.1))

# Improve the layout
plt.tight_layout()

# Show the plot
plt.title('Knowledge and Technology Output Factors by Country')
plt.show()
In [ ]:
# Heatmap
import seaborn as sns
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# Create the heatmap with adjusted formatting
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
sns.heatmap(df_countries, annot=True, cmap='coolwarm', fmt='g')

# Add labels and title if necessary
plt.title(' Knowledge and technology output Factors by Country')
plt.xlabel('Factors')
plt.ylabel('Countries')

plt.show()

Based on the general ranking plot above, we select "production and export complexity" and "labor productivity growth, %" as the two factors.

Business Sophistication¶

Find two factors under this measurment which Canada has the largest gap compared with other countries

In [ ]:
# upload the csv file which created by ourselves
from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()
Upload widget is only available when the cell has been executed in the current browser session. Please rerun this cell to enable.
Saving data.csv to data.csv
In [ ]:
import pandas as pd
data = pd.read_csv("data.csv")
data
Out[ ]:
Country Business sophistication Knowledge workers Knowledge-intensive employment, % GERD performed by business, % GDP GERD financed by business, % Females employed w/advanced degrees, % Innovation linkages University–industry R&D collaboration State of cluster development GERD financed by abroad, % GDP Joint venture/strategic alliance deals/bn PPP$ GDP Patent families/bn PPP$ GDP Knowledge absorption Intellectual property payments, % total trade High-tech imports, % total trade ICT services imports, % total trade FDI net inflows, % GDP Research talent, % in businesses
0 Canada 18 28 25 28 37 35 6 7 15 28 1 19 16 10 32 63 58 14
1 Switzerland 5 9 10 8 7 31 3 3 3 21 9 1 13 1 112 13 131 27
2 United Kingdom 13 10 11 10 17 22 11 12 14 9 10 20 30 13 36 40 76 34
3 Repulic of Korea 9 3 31 2 4 28 19 21 22 69 32 1 11 21 13 74 106 1
4 Japan 11 18 73 4 2 25 20 28 20 62 42 1 4 7 16 23 100 5
5 United States of America 2 2 9 3 6 9 4 2 1 15 5 12 5 20 9 60 91 2
6 Singapore 3 5 2 18 16 3 12 8 11 38 6 14 1 9 5 9 6 19
In [ ]:
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from math import pi
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# Inverting the rankings
data = data.set_index('Country')
inverse_data = 132 - data

# Number of variables
categories = list(inverse_data.columns)
N = len(categories)

# What will be the angle of each axis in the plot
angles = [n / float(N) * 2 * pi for n in range(N)]
angles += angles[:1]

# Radar chart plot
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 8), subplot_kw=dict(polar=True))
plt.xticks(angles[:-1], categories, color='black', size=8, rotation='vertical')

# Draw one country per time and highlight Canada
for country in inverse_data.index:
    values = inverse_data.loc[country].values.flatten().tolist()
    values += values[:1]
    if country == 'Canada':
        ax.plot(angles, values, linewidth=3, linestyle='solid', label=country, color='red')
    else:
        ax.plot(angles, values, linewidth=1, linestyle='solid', label=country)

# Add legend and adjust its position
plt.legend(loc='upper right', bbox_to_anchor=(1.2, 1.1))

# Improve the layout
plt.tight_layout()

# Show the plot
plt.show()
In [ ]:
import seaborn as sns
# Create the heatmap with adjusted formatting
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
sns.heatmap(data, annot=True, cmap='coolwarm', fmt='g')

# Add labels and title if necessary
plt.title('Business Sophistication Factors by Country')
plt.xlabel('Factors')
plt.ylabel('Countries')

plt.show()

From the radar plot and heatmap above, Canada tend to perform weakly on ICT services imports, % total trade and FDI net inflows, % GDP.

Infrastructure¶

Find two factors under this measurment which Canada has the largest gap compared with other countries

In [ ]:
from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()
import pandas as pd
Upload widget is only available when the cell has been executed in the current browser session. Please rerun this cell to enable.
Saving Infrastructure_data.csv to Infrastructure_data.csv
In [ ]:
Infrastructure_data = pd.read_csv('Infrastructure_data.csv')
Infrastructure_data.set_index('Country', inplace=True)
Infrastructure_data
Out[ ]:
Infrastructure Information and communication technologies (ICTs) ICT access* ICT use* Government’s online service* E-participation* General infrastructure Electricity output, GWh/mn pop. Logistics performance* Gross capital formation, % GDP Ecological sustainability GDP/unit of energy use Environmental performance* ISO 14001 environment/bn PPP$ GDP
Country
Canada 30 31 73 48 27 14 5 6 7 70 73 107 42 91
United Kingdom 6 6 10 3 17 6 42 50 18 114 2 12 2 20
United States of America 25 11 56 11 9 10 12 9 16 81 62 73 36 116
Japan 13 12 54 31 10 1 19 20 13 47 28 37 25 24
Korea 11 1 14 4 3 9 10 12 16 18 55 90 49 28
Switzerland 4 25 21 1 49 41 16 26 3 42 7 4 9 29
Singapore 8 5 1 40 5 3 9 15 1 69 37 20 37 40
In [ ]:
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas as pd
from math import pi

# Inverting the rankings
inverse_data = 132 - Infrastructure_data

# Number of variables
categories = list(inverse_data)
N = len(categories)

# What will be the angle of each axis in the plot
angles = [n / float(N) * 2 * pi for n in range(N)]
angles += angles[:1]

# Radar chart plot
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = plt.subplot(111, polar=True)
plt.xticks(angles[:-1], categories, color='black', size=8)

# Draw one country per time and highlight Canada
for country in inverse_data.index:
    values = inverse_data.loc[country].values.flatten().tolist()
    values += values[:1]
    if country == 'Canada':
        ax.plot(angles, values, linewidth=3, linestyle='solid', label=country, color='red')
    else:
        ax.plot(angles, values, linewidth=1, linestyle='solid', label=country)

# Add legend and adjust its position
plt.legend(loc='upper right', bbox_to_anchor=(1.2, 1.2))

plt.show()
In [ ]:
import seaborn as sns
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# Create the heatmap with adjusted formatting
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
sns.heatmap(Infrastructure_data, annot=True, cmap='coolwarm', fmt='g')

# Add labels and title if necessary
plt.title('Infrastructure Factors by Country')
plt.xlabel('Factors')
plt.ylabel('Countries')

plt.show()

From the radar plot and heatmap above, Canada tend to perform weakly on GDP/unit of energy use and ISO 14001 environment/bn PPP$ GDP.

Part 2 & 3. Develop proposal for Canada's Innovation Ecosystem Development and Design Practical Strategies based on the Proposal¶

(Import related sources (e.g., PDF, websites) to the openAI API, and let the API provide useful policies on Canada's weak aspects)

Knowledge and Technology Output Comparison¶

In [ ]:
## Import or install PDF-to-text library
try:
    import PyPDF2
except:
    !pip install PyPDF2
    import PyPDF2
Collecting PyPDF2
  Downloading pypdf2-3.0.1-py3-none-any.whl (232 kB)
     ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 232.6/232.6 kB 3.7 MB/s eta 0:00:00
Installing collected packages: PyPDF2
Successfully installed PyPDF2-3.0.1
In [ ]:
# Importing relevant libraries needed for GPT and set parameters
try:
    import openai
except:
    !pip install openai
    import openai
Collecting openai
  Downloading openai-1.3.6-py3-none-any.whl (220 kB)
     ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 220.9/220.9 kB 2.0 MB/s eta 0:00:00
Requirement already satisfied: anyio<4,>=3.5.0 in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (from openai) (3.7.1)
Requirement already satisfied: distro<2,>=1.7.0 in /usr/lib/python3/dist-packages (from openai) (1.7.0)
Collecting httpx<1,>=0.23.0 (from openai)
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In [ ]:
## API Key
# Ricardo's API key here, insert your own API key instead
import os
API_KEY= "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"

os.environ['OPENAI_API_KEY'] = API_KEY
openai.api_key = os.getenv("OPENAI_API_KEY")

## OpenAI API parameters
# model = "gpt-3.5-turbo" # 4K tokens
model = "gpt-4" # 16K tokens
max_tokens = 2048
n = 1
stop = None
temperature = 0.5

Exports Complexity:¶

In [ ]:
# links searched by ourseleves, relevant to 'exports complexity'
link_exports = 'https://www.eda.admin.ch/aboutswitzerland/en/home/wirtschaft/uebersicht/export.html,\
https://www.s-ge.com/en/article/news/singapore-six-strategies-economic-growth-promote-internationalization?ct,\
https://meti-journal.japantimes.co.jp/2021-11-18/'
In [ ]:
prompt1_new = "I want to extract and summarize the export complexity related policies for Switzerland, Japan, and Singapore. I will provide you with several weblinks, \
and you will create a list of policy summary of how these countries implemented or plan their export complexity methods could improve their complexity or other relative policies related to export.\
Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. \
Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text and website, and conclude without personal opinions. The website link is: '{input_countries}'.".format(input_countries = link_exports)

# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt1_new[:min(len(prompt1_new),40000)]
Out[ ]:
"I want to extract and summarize the export complexity related policies for Switzerland, Japan, and Singapore. I will provide you with several weblinks, and you will create a list of policy summary of how these countries implemented or plan their export complexity methods could improve their complexity or other relative policies related to export.Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text and website, and conclude without personal opinions. The website link is: 'https://www.eda.admin.ch/aboutswitzerland/en/home/wirtschaft/uebersicht/export.html,https://www.s-ge.com/en/article/news/singapore-six-strategies-economic-growth-promote-internationalization?ct,https://meti-journal.japantimes.co.jp/2021-11-18/'."
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the first prompt
# Policies in Switzerland, Singapore and Japan

response1_new = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful  assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt1_new[:min(len(prompt1_new),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput1_new = response1_new.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput1_new)
1. Switzerland: 

   - The Swiss government encourages the diversification of export markets to improve the complexity of its exports. This is done through the Swiss Global Enterprise (S-GE) which supports Swiss companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in their international business ventures. 
   
   - They also promote Switzerland as a business location abroad. Their main task is to help SMEs from Switzerland and Liechtenstein to identify and develop new international business opportunities. 
   
   - The Swiss government also provides information about the economic situation, the business environment and opportunities in foreign markets, and organizes promotional events and business trips to target markets. 

2. Singapore:

   - The Singapore government has six strategies to promote economic growth and internationalization. This includes building a global Asia node, deepening and diversifying international connections, strengthening enterprise capabilities to seize global opportunities, promoting technology adoption and innovation, building a vibrant business ecosystem, and developing a diverse and global-ready talent pool. 

   - They also have the Global Trader Programme (GTP) which encourages trading companies to use Singapore as a base for their commodity trading operations. This program provides various benefits including tax incentives to companies that meet the qualifying criteria.

   - The government also encourages companies to upgrade their capabilities, innovate, and venture overseas through various schemes and grants.

3. Japan:

   - The Japanese government has a new growth strategy that aims to promote digital transformation, green growth, and regulatory reform. This includes the creation of a Digital Agency that will serve as a control tower for digital transformation in both the public and private sectors. 

   - They are also promoting green growth by creating a virtuous cycle of the economy and environment. This includes the promotion of carbon recycling technologies and the expansion of renewable energy. 

   - The government is also promoting regulatory reforms to create new markets and business opportunities. This includes the revision of regulations that hinder digital transformation and the promotion of new business models that utilize digital technologies.
   
   - Japan also promotes the internationalization of its companies and industries through various measures including the provision of information on overseas markets, support for overseas business development, and the promotion of exports and inward investment.
In [ ]:
# links of Canada policies relevant to 'exports'
canada_links = 'https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/march-2023/economy-industrial-policy/ ,\
https://www.tradecommissioner.gc.ca/canadexport/0006901.aspx?lang=eng'
In [ ]:
prompt2_new = "Next, I will provide you two weblinks about Canada policies, \
and you will create a list of policy summary of how Canada implement their exports and trade policies. \
Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. \
Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the websites. \
You should not include any personal opinions or interpretations in your summary,\
Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, and accurately reflects the website, here is the website link: '{input_ca}'.".format(input_ca = canada_links)

# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt2_new[:min(len(prompt2_new),40000)]
Out[ ]:
"Next, I will provide you two weblinks about Canada policies, and you will create a list of policy summary of how Canada implement their exports and trade policies. Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the websites. You should not include any personal opinions or interpretations in your summary,Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, and accurately reflects the website, here is the website link: 'https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/march-2023/economy-industrial-policy/ ,https://www.tradecommissioner.gc.ca/canadexport/0006901.aspx?lang=eng'."
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the second prompt
response2_new = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful  assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt2_new[:min(len(prompt2_new),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput2_new = response2_new.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput2_new)
I'm sorry, but I'm currently unable to browse the internet. However, I can provide general information on how countries typically implement their export and trade policies. 

1. Trade Agreements: Countries often enter into bilateral or multilateral trade agreements with other countries. These agreements can reduce tariffs, establish trade standards, and promote certain industries.

2. Export Controls: Governments often implement export controls to regulate what goods and services can be exported. This can be for reasons of national security, protecting domestic industries, or complying with international obligations.

3. Trade Promotion: Governments often have agencies dedicated to promoting trade and helping domestic businesses export their goods and services. These agencies can provide information, training, and financial assistance.

4. Trade Policy Review: Governments often review their trade policies to ensure they are effective and meeting their goals. This can involve consulting with businesses, industry groups, and the public.

5. Trade Dispute Resolution: Trade disputes can arise when one country believes another is not complying with a trade agreement. Countries often have mechanisms in place to resolve these disputes, which can involve negotiations, mediation, or arbitration.

6. Trade Sanctions: In some cases, governments may impose trade sanctions on other countries. This can be in response to human rights abuses, acts of aggression, or other actions that are contrary to international law.

7. Customs Procedures: Governments have customs procedures in place to regulate the import and export of goods. This can involve checking goods at the border, collecting tariffs, and enforcing trade laws.

8. Trade Adjustment Assistance: Governments often provide assistance to workers and businesses that are negatively affected by trade. This can include retraining programs, financial assistance, and other support measures.
In [ ]:
# compare exports complexity policies between Canada and Japan
prompt2_new_compare = "I want to compare the policies of exports trade in Canada and Japan based on their policies.\
I will provide you with the summary, and you will create three list of comparison result of policy summary for how \
Canada and Japan implemented or plan the policies to improve their exports trade.\
One list for similarity and one list for difference, especially what Canada didn't do. \
Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. \
Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of website links.\
You should not include any personal opinions or interpretations in your summary.\
Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, and accurately reflects the information provided on websites. \
The policy for Japan is: '{input_J}'. The policy for Canada is: {input_C}.".format(input_J = coutput1_new, input_C = coutput2_new)
# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt2_new_compare[:min(len(prompt2_new_compare),40000)]
Out[ ]:
"I want to compare the policies of exports trade in Canada and Japan based on their policies.I will provide you with the summary, and you will create three list of comparison result of policy summary for how Canada and Japan implemented or plan the policies to improve their exports trade.One list for similarity and one list for difference, especially what Canada didn't do. Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of website links.You should not include any personal opinions or interpretations in your summary.Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, and accurately reflects the information provided on websites. The policy for Japan is: '1. Switzerland: \n\n   - The Swiss government encourages the diversification of export markets to improve the complexity of its exports. This is done through the Swiss Global Enterprise (S-GE) which supports Swiss companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in their international business ventures. \n   \n   - They also promote Switzerland as a business location abroad. Their main task is to help SMEs from Switzerland and Liechtenstein to identify and develop new international business opportunities. \n   \n   - The Swiss government also provides information about the economic situation, the business environment and opportunities in foreign markets, and organizes promotional events and business trips to target markets. \n\n2. Singapore:\n\n   - The Singapore government has six strategies to promote economic growth and internationalization. This includes building a global Asia node, deepening and diversifying international connections, strengthening enterprise capabilities to seize global opportunities, promoting technology adoption and innovation, building a vibrant business ecosystem, and developing a diverse and global-ready talent pool. \n\n   - They also have the Global Trader Programme (GTP) which encourages trading companies to use Singapore as a base for their commodity trading operations. This program provides various benefits including tax incentives to companies that meet the qualifying criteria.\n\n   - The government also encourages companies to upgrade their capabilities, innovate, and venture overseas through various schemes and grants.\n\n3. Japan:\n\n   - The Japanese government has a new growth strategy that aims to promote digital transformation, green growth, and regulatory reform. This includes the creation of a Digital Agency that will serve as a control tower for digital transformation in both the public and private sectors. \n\n   - They are also promoting green growth by creating a virtuous cycle of the economy and environment. This includes the promotion of carbon recycling technologies and the expansion of renewable energy. \n\n   - The government is also promoting regulatory reforms to create new markets and business opportunities. This includes the revision of regulations that hinder digital transformation and the promotion of new business models that utilize digital technologies.\n   \n   - Japan also promotes the internationalization of its companies and industries through various measures including the provision of information on overseas markets, support for overseas business development, and the promotion of exports and inward investment.'. The policy for Canada is: I'm sorry, but as an AI, I am currently unable to browse the internet or access external websites. However, I can provide a general summary of how Canada implements its export and trade policies based on pre-existing knowledge:\n\n1. Canada's trade policies are developed and implemented by the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development. These policies are designed to support Canadian businesses in international markets, promote foreign investment, and foster global trade.\n\n2. Canada follows a liberal trade policy, aiming to reduce trade barriers and promote free trade. This is evident in its involvement in numerous bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).\n\n3. The government provides various support programs for exporters, such as the CanExport program, which provides financial assistance to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) seeking to develop new export opportunities.\n\n4. Canada's export controls are guided by its commitment to international peace and security. They have strict regulations on the export of sensitive goods, including military and strategic goods, nuclear energy materials, and dual-use goods.\n\n5. The Trade Commissioner Service (TCS) plays a crucial role in implementing Canada's trade policies. The TCS provides essential market intelligence, practical advice, and support to Canadian companies planning to export, invest abroad, attract investment, or develop innovation and R&D partnerships.\n\n6. Canada also has specific policies in place to respond to unfair trade practices. These include anti-dumping and countervailing duties to protect Canadian industries from injury caused by the dumping and subsidization of imported goods.\n\n7. The country's trade policy also includes a focus on inclusive trade, aiming to ensure that the benefits and opportunities created by trade are widely shared. This includes a focus on gender equality, environmental sustainability, and the rights of indigenous peoples in trade policy.\n\n8. Canada's trade policy is also geared towards promoting the digital economy and e-commerce, recognizing the increasing importance of digital trade in the global economy.\n\nPlease note that the accuracy of this information might not be up-to-date or fully accurate, as I am unable to access the specific websites provided to extract the latest information.."
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the compare prompt

response2_new_compare = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful  assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt2_new_compare[:min(len(prompt2_new_compare),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput2_new_compare = response2_new_compare.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput2_new_compare)
Similarities in Export Trade Policies between Canada and Japan:

1. Both Canada and Japan focus on supporting their small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in their international business ventures. Canada does this through the CanExport program, while Japan does this by providing information on overseas markets and supporting overseas business development.

2. Both countries have strategies to promote digital transformation and innovation. Canada promotes the digital economy and e-commerce, while Japan aims to promote digital transformation through the creation of a Digital Agency.

3. Both countries have policies in place that aim to promote environmental sustainability. Canada's trade policy includes a focus on environmental sustainability, while Japan promotes green growth by creating a virtuous cycle of the economy and environment.

Differences in Export Trade Policies between Canada and Japan:

1. While both countries support their SMEs, their methods differ. Canada provides financial assistance to SMEs seeking to develop new export opportunities, while Japan provides information and support for overseas business development.

2. Japan has a specific focus on promoting green growth by expanding renewable energy and promoting carbon recycling technologies. Canada, while focusing on environmental sustainability, does not specify a similar green growth strategy.

3. Canada has specific policies in place to respond to unfair trade practices, including anti-dumping and countervailing duties. Japan's summary does not mention similar policies.

4. Canada's trade policy includes a focus on inclusive trade, aiming to ensure that the benefits and opportunities created by trade are widely shared, including a focus on gender equality and the rights of indigenous peoples. Japan's summary does not mention similar inclusivity goals.

5. Canada's trade policy is guided by its commitment to international peace and security, with strict regulations on the export of sensitive goods. Japan's summary does not mention similar regulations.

What Canada didn't do that Japan does:

1. Japan promotes the internationalization of its companies and industries through various measures, including the promotion of exports and inward investment. Canada's summary does not mention a similar focus on internationalization.

2. Japan is promoting regulatory reforms to create new markets and business opportunities, including the revision of regulations that hinder digital transformation. Canada's summary does not mention a similar focus on regulatory reform.

3. Japan has a new growth strategy that aims to promote digital transformation, green growth, and regulatory reform. While Canada promotes digital transformation and environmental sustainability, it does not mention a similar comprehensive growth strategy.

Labor Productivity:¶

In [ ]:
link_labor = "https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/0a2f3a71-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/0a2f3a71-en ,\
https://sr-verse.jp/2023/02/07/717/ ,\
https://content.mycareersfuture.gov.sg/budget-2023-career-resilience-upskilling-reskilling-courses-job-skills-integrators/ ."
In [ ]:
prompt3_new = "I want to extract and summarize the labor productivity growth related policies for Switzerland, Japan, and Singapore. I will provide you with several weblinks, \
and you will create a list of policy summary of how these countries implemented or plan their export complexity methods could improve their complexity or other relative policies related to export.\
Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. \
Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text and website, and conclude without personal opinions. The website link is: '{input3}'.".format(input3 = link_labor)

#list three countries' policies in labor productivity
prompt3_new[:min(len(prompt3_new),40000)]
Out[ ]:
"I want to extract and summarize the labor productivity growth related policies for Switzerland, Japan, and Singapore. I will provide you with several weblinks, and you will create a list of policy summary of how these countries implemented or plan their export complexity methods could improve their complexity or other relative policies related to export.Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text and website, and conclude without personal opinions. The website link is: 'https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/0a2f3a71-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/0a2f3a71-en ,https://sr-verse.jp/2023/02/07/717/ ,https://content.mycareersfuture.gov.sg/budget-2023-career-resilience-upskilling-reskilling-courses-job-skills-integrators/ .'."
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the third prompt
# Policies of labor productivity growth in Swiss, Japan and Singapore
response3_new = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful  assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt3_new[:min(len(prompt3_new),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput3_new = response3_new.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput3_new)
1. Switzerland: As per the OECD report, Switzerland's labor productivity growth has been driven by a number of policies. The Swiss government has implemented a policy of encouraging innovation through substantial investment in research and development (R&D). Further, it has promoted the digitization of businesses and encouraged the adoption of digital technologies, which has improved productivity. The government has also focused on improving the skills of the workforce, with a particular emphasis on lifelong learning and vocational training. Moreover, Switzerland has a policy of open markets, which has allowed it to benefit from the global division of labor and increased its export complexity. The government has also implemented policies to improve the business environment, including reducing administrative burdens and improving the regulatory framework.

2. Japan: According to the SR Verse report, Japan's labor productivity growth has been influenced by several policies. The Japanese government has pursued a policy of promoting innovation and technology adoption, which has led to increased productivity. The government has also introduced measures to improve the skills of the workforce, including training and education programs. Additionally, the government has implemented policies to increase the competitiveness of Japanese businesses in the global market, which has improved the country's export complexity. The government has also focused on creating a conducive business environment, including reducing red tape and improving the regulatory framework.

3. Singapore: As per the MyCareersFuture report, Singapore's labor productivity growth has been driven by a variety of policies. The Singaporean government has implemented a policy of promoting skill development and lifelong learning, which has helped to improve the skills of the workforce and increase productivity. The government has also pursued a policy of promoting innovation and technology adoption, which has led to increased productivity. Additionally, the government has implemented measures to increase the competitiveness of Singaporean businesses in the global market, which has improved the country's export complexity. The government has also focused on creating a conducive business environment, including reducing administrative burdens and improving the regulatory framework. The government has also introduced a number of initiatives to support workers in adapting to changes in the job market, including reskilling and upskilling programs.
In [ ]:
Singapore_vs_Canada_labor = "https://content.mycareersfuture.gov.sg/budget-2023-career-resilience-upskilling-reskilling-courses-job-skills-integrators/ ,\
https://www.canada.ca/en/innovation-science-economic-development/news/2023/02/canada-steps-up-to-meet-the-skilled-labour-needs-of-high-growth-sectors.html ."
In [ ]:
# compare labor productivity
prompt3_Singapore_vs_Canada_compare = "I want to compare the policies of labor productivity growth in Canada and Singapore based on their policies.\
I will provide you with the summary, and you will create three list of comparison result of policy summary for how \
Canada and Singapore implemented or plan the policies to improve their exports trade.\
One list for similarity and one list for difference, especially what Canada didn't do. \
Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. \
Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of website links.\
You should not include any personal opinions or interpretations in your summary.\
Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, and accurately reflects the information provided on websites. \
The links for Singapore and Canada are: {input_Singapore_vs_Canada_compare}.".format(input_Singapore_vs_Canada_compare = Singapore_vs_Canada_labor)
# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt3_Singapore_vs_Canada_compare [:min(len(prompt3_Singapore_vs_Canada_compare ),40000)]
Out[ ]:
"I want to compare the policies of labor productivity growth in Canada and Singapore based on their policies.I will provide you with the summary, and you will create three list of comparison result of policy summary for how Canada and Singapore implemented or plan the policies to improve their exports trade.One list for similarity and one list for difference, especially what Canada didn't do. Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of website links.You should not include any personal opinions or interpretations in your summary.Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, and accurately reflects the information provided on websites. The links for Singapore and Canada are: https://content.mycareersfuture.gov.sg/budget-2023-career-resilience-upskilling-reskilling-courses-job-skills-integrators/ ,https://www.canada.ca/en/innovation-science-economic-development/news/2023/02/canada-steps-up-to-meet-the-skilled-labour-needs-of-high-growth-sectors.html .."
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the compare prompt

response3_Singapore_vs_Canada_compare = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful  assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt3_Singapore_vs_Canada_compare[:min(len(prompt3_Singapore_vs_Canada_compare),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput3_Singapore_vs_Canada_compare = response3_Singapore_vs_Canada_compare.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput3_Singapore_vs_Canada_compare)
I'm sorry, but I'm unable to access the internet, including the specific web pages you mentioned. However, I can provide you with a general comparison structure based on your request. 

1. Similarities:
   - Both countries recognize the importance of upskilling and reskilling their labor force.
   - They both implement policies to meet the skilled labor needs of high-growth sectors.
   - Both are focusing on integrating job skills into their labor force.

2. Differences:
   - Singapore might have specific programs for career resilience and job skills integrators, while Canada might focus more on meeting the needs of high-growth sectors.
   - The specific sectors of focus might differ between the two countries.
   - The implementation methods and specific policies could also differ.

3. What Canada didn't do:
   - Based on the information you provide, I can list out specific policies or initiatives that Singapore implemented but Canada did not.

Please provide more specific information or details so I can give a more accurate comparison.
In [ ]:
# links for labour producivity especially in knowledge workers in singapore
link_kw_singapore= 'https://content.mycareersfuture.gov.sg/budget-2023-career-resilience-upskilling-reskilling-courses-job-skills-integrators/,\
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/05/lessons-from-singapore-on-upskilling-for-the-future/,\
https://www.anza.org.sg/2022/11/03/2023-changes-to-the-singapore-work-pass-framework/'
In [ ]:
prompt_2_1 = "I want to extract and summarize the knowledge workers related policies for Singapore. I will provide you with several weblinks, \
and you will create a list of policy summary of how these countries implemented or plan their methods to improve their knowledge workers.\
Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. \
Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text and website, and conclude without personal opinions. The website link is: '{input1}'.".format(input1 = link_kw_singapore)

# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt_2_1[:min(len(prompt_2_1),40000)]
Out[ ]:
"I want to extract and summarize the knowledge workers related policies for Singapore. I will provide you with several weblinks, and you will create a list of policy summary of how these countries implemented or plan their methods to improve their knowledge workers.Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text and website, and conclude without personal opinions. The website link is: 'https://content.mycareersfuture.gov.sg/budget-2023-career-resilience-upskilling-reskilling-courses-job-skills-integrators/,https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/05/lessons-from-singapore-on-upskilling-for-the-future/,https://www.anza.org.sg/2022/11/03/2023-changes-to-the-singapore-work-pass-framework/'."
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the first prompt

response_2_1 = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful  assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt_2_1[:min(len(prompt_2_1),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput_2_1 = response_2_1.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput_2_1)
After analyzing the provided links, here are the key policies related to knowledge workers in Singapore:

1. Career Resilience and Upskilling/Reskilling Courses: As part of the 2023 budget, Singapore is implementing policies that focus on career resilience and upskilling/reskilling of its workforce. The government is funding courses that equip workers with industry-relevant skills, preparing them for the future economy. Emphasis is placed on lifelong learning and adaptability. (Source: MyCareersFuture)

2. Job Skills Integrators (JSIs): To facilitate the upskilling/reskilling process, Singapore has introduced Job Skills Integrators. JSIs are professionals who provide career guidance and help individuals identify suitable training programs. They play a crucial role in the successful implementation of the government's upskilling and reskilling initiatives. (Source: MyCareersFuture)

3. Lessons from Singapore on Upskilling for the Future: The World Economic Forum highlighted Singapore's approach to upskilling its workforce. The government has launched the SkillsFuture initiative, which provides all Singaporeans aged 25 and above with an initial credit of S$500 to pay for a wide range of approved skills-related courses. The initiative is part of a broader effort to create a culture of lifelong learning and to prepare the workforce for the future economy. (Source: World Economic Forum)

4. Changes to the Singapore Work Pass Framework: In 2023, Singapore made changes to its work pass framework to attract and retain high-quality foreign talent. The new framework includes the introduction of the Tech.Pass, which allows tech professionals to start and operate businesses, be an investor, employee, consultant or director in Singapore-based companies, or lecture at local universities. This policy is aimed at bolstering Singapore's position as a global-Asia node of technology, innovation, and enterprise. (Source: ANZA)

5. Complementarity between Local and Foreign Workforce: The revised work pass framework also emphasizes the importance of complementarity between the local and foreign workforce. The government is taking measures to ensure that the foreign workforce supplements rather than substitutes the local workforce. This includes stricter qualifying criteria for Employment Pass (EP) and S Pass holders. (Source: ANZA)
In [ ]:
# links for labour productivity especially for knowledge workers in Canada
link_kw_Canada ='https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/global-hr/pages/canada-lifelong-learning-for-workers.aspx,\
https://www.labourandemploymentlaw.com/2023/07/canadas-first-ever-tech-talent-strategy/'
In [ ]:
prompt_2_4 = "I want to extract and summarize the knowledge workers related policies for Canada. I will provide you with several weblinks, \
and you will create a list of policy summary of how these countries implemented or plan their methods to improve their knowledge workers.\
Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. \
Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text and website, and conclude without personal opinions. The website link is: '{input4}'.".format(input4 = link_kw_Canada)

# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt_2_4[:min(len(prompt_2_4),40000)]
Out[ ]:
"I want to extract and summarize the knowledge workers related policies for Canada. I will provide you with several weblinks, and you will create a list of policy summary of how these countries implemented or plan their methods to improve their knowledge workers.Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text and website, and conclude without personal opinions. The website link is: 'https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/global-hr/pages/canada-lifelong-learning-for-workers.aspx,https://www.labourandemploymentlaw.com/2023/07/canadas-first-ever-tech-talent-strategy/'."
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the prompt

response_2_4 = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful  assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt_2_4[:min(len(prompt_2_4),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput_2_4 = response_2_4.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput_2_4)
1. Lifelong Learning for Workers in Canada (source: SHRM):

   - The Canadian government is focusing on lifelong learning and skills development to improve the quality of its knowledge workers.
   - The government has launched an initiative called the Future Skills Centre, which is a forward-thinking research project aimed at exploring new ways to enhance the skills of Canadian workers.
   - The Canada Training Benefit program is another initiative that provides workers with a tax credit to pursue training and education to improve their skills.
   - The government also encourages employers to invest in skills development and training for their employees. This is done through the Canada Job Grant, which provides financial support to businesses that offer training programs.

2. Canada's First-Ever Tech Talent Strategy (source: Labour and Employment Law):

   - The Canadian government has launched its first-ever tech talent strategy to attract and retain skilled knowledge workers in the tech sector.
   - The strategy includes a commitment to train up to 10,000 Canadians for in-demand tech jobs. This is done through partnerships with educational institutions and businesses.
   - The strategy also includes a new immigration stream called the Global Talent Stream, which aims to attract global tech talent to Canada. This stream provides a fast-track visa process for skilled tech workers.
   - The government also plans to invest in diversity and inclusion initiatives in the tech sector, with a focus on increasing the representation of women, Indigenous peoples, and other underrepresented groups.
   - The strategy also emphasizes the importance of collaboration between the government, businesses, and educational institutions in developing and implementing policies to improve the skills and capabilities of knowledge workers.
In [ ]:
prompt_2_5 = "I want to compare the knowledge workers related policies in Canada and Singapore based on their policy summary. I will provide you with the summary, \
and you will create two list of comparison result of policy summary for how Canada and Singapore implemented or plan the policies to their knowledge workers.\
One list for similarity and one list for difference, especially what Canada didn't do. Your answer should be shown in list, starting \
from 1. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text. You should not include any personal opinions or \
interpretations in your summary, but rather focus on objectively presenting the information from the inout. Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, \
and accurately reflects the content of the original text. \
The policy for Singapore is: '{input1}'. The policy for Canada is: {input4}.".format(input1 = coutput_2_1, input4 = coutput_2_4)
#The policy for United States of America is: '{input2}.
#The policy for Republic of korea is: '{input3}.
# input2 = coutput_2_2, input3 = coutput_2_3,
# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt_2_5[:min(len(prompt_2_5),40000)]
Out[ ]:
"I want to compare the knowledge workers related policies in Canada and Singapore based on their policy summary. I will provide you with the summary, and you will create two list of comparison result of policy summary for how Canada and Singapore implemented or plan the policies to their knowledge workers.One list for similarity and one list for difference, especially what Canada didn't do. Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text. You should not include any personal opinions or interpretations in your summary, but rather focus on objectively presenting the information from the inout. Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, and accurately reflects the content of the original text. The policy for Singapore is: 'After analyzing the provided links, here are the key policies related to knowledge workers in Singapore:\n\n1. Career Resilience and Upskilling/Reskilling Courses: As part of the 2023 budget, Singapore is implementing policies that focus on career resilience and upskilling/reskilling of its workforce. The government is funding courses that equip workers with industry-relevant skills, preparing them for the future economy. Emphasis is placed on lifelong learning and adaptability. (Source: MyCareersFuture)\n\n2. Job Skills Integrators (JSIs): To facilitate the upskilling/reskilling process, Singapore has introduced Job Skills Integrators. JSIs are professionals who provide career guidance and help individuals identify suitable training programs. They play a crucial role in the successful implementation of the government's upskilling and reskilling initiatives. (Source: MyCareersFuture)\n\n3. Lessons from Singapore on Upskilling for the Future: The World Economic Forum highlighted Singapore's approach to upskilling its workforce. The government has launched the SkillsFuture initiative, which provides all Singaporeans aged 25 and above with an initial credit of S$500 to pay for a wide range of approved skills-related courses. The initiative is part of a broader effort to create a culture of lifelong learning and to prepare the workforce for the future economy. (Source: World Economic Forum)\n\n4. Changes to the Singapore Work Pass Framework: In 2023, Singapore made changes to its work pass framework to attract and retain high-quality foreign talent. The new framework includes the introduction of the Tech.Pass, which allows tech professionals to start and operate businesses, be an investor, employee, consultant or director in Singapore-based companies, or lecture at local universities. This policy is aimed at bolstering Singapore's position as a global-Asia node of technology, innovation, and enterprise. (Source: ANZA)\n\n5. Complementarity between Local and Foreign Workforce: The revised work pass framework also emphasizes the importance of complementarity between the local and foreign workforce. The government is taking measures to ensure that the foreign workforce supplements rather than substitutes the local workforce. This includes stricter qualifying criteria for Employment Pass (EP) and S Pass holders. (Source: ANZA)'. The policy for Canada is: 1. Lifelong Learning for Workers: The Canadian government is committed to lifelong learning for workers, particularly those in the knowledge sector. They have implemented the Canada Job Grant, which provides up to $10,000 in government support per person for training costs. The employer is expected to contribute one-third of the total costs. This initiative is aimed at providing employees with the necessary skills for their current and future jobs. The government also offers the Lifelong Learning Plan, which allows individuals to withdraw amounts from their Registered Retirement Savings Plan to finance full-time training or education for themselves or their spouse. [Source: SHRM](https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/global-hr/pages/canada-lifelong-learning-for-workers.aspx)\n\n2. Canada's Tech Talent Strategy: In an effort to attract and retain top tech talent, the Canadian government has introduced the Global Talent Stream (GTS) program. This program provides innovative firms in Canada with faster access to highly skilled employees from around the world. The processing time for work permit applications is two weeks, which is significantly faster than the usual process. The program also requires companies to develop a Labour Market Benefits Plan, which outlines the company's commitment to activities that will have lasting, positive impacts on the Canadian labour market. [Source: Labour and Employment Law](https://www.labourandemploymentlaw.com/2023/07/canadas-first-ever-tech-talent-strategy/)\n   \n3. Workforce Development Agreements: The Canadian government has also entered into agreements with each of the provinces and territories to deliver key employment and skills training programs. These Workforce Development Agreements (WDAs) help Canadians, including knowledge workers, to upgrade their skills, gain experience, or get help to start their own business. The WDAs also aim to help underrepresented groups, such as people with disabilities, Indigenous people, and women in trades, to access the training and services they need to find and keep good jobs. [Source: SHRM](https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/global-hr/pages/canada-lifelong-learning-for-workers.aspx)\n\n4. Promoting Digital Skills: The Canadian government is also investing in initiatives to help Canadians improve their digital skills. The CanCode program, for instance, provides coding and digital skills learning opportunities to students from kindergarten to grade 12, including underrepresented groups. The program also provides teachers with the tools needed to teach digital skills and coding. [Source: Labour and Employment Law](https://www.labourandemploymentlaw.com/2023/07/canadas-first-ever-tech-talent-strategy/)."
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the prompt

response_2_5 = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful  assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt_2_5[:min(len(prompt_2_5),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput_2_5 = response_2_5.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput_2_5)
Similarities:
1. Both countries emphasize lifelong learning and upskilling/reskilling of their workforce. Singapore does this through the 2023 budget and the SkillsFuture initiative, while Canada implements the Canada Job Grant and Lifelong Learning Plan.
2. Both countries have introduced measures to attract and retain foreign talent in the tech sector. Singapore has introduced the Tech.Pass, and Canada has launched the Global Talent Stream (GTS) program.
3. Both countries have initiatives to provide career guidance and identify suitable training programs for their workforce. Singapore has introduced Job Skills Integrators (JSIs), while Canada has Workforce Development Agreements (WDAs).
4. Both countries have policies that focus on balancing the local and foreign workforce. Singapore has stricter qualifying criteria for Employment Pass (EP) and S Pass holders, while Canada requires companies to develop a Labour Market Benefits Plan.

Differences:
1. Singapore provides all citizens aged 25 and above with an initial credit of S$500 to pay for a wide range of approved skills-related courses under the SkillsFuture initiative. Canada, on the other hand, provides up to $10,000 in government support per person for training costs through the Canada Job Grant.
2. Singapore's Tech.Pass allows foreign tech professionals to start and operate businesses, be an investor, employee, consultant, or director in Singapore-based companies, or lecture at local universities. Canada's GTS program focuses more on providing faster access to highly skilled employees from around the world.
3. Canada's Lifelong Learning Plan allows individuals to withdraw amounts from their Registered Retirement Savings Plan to finance full-time training or education for themselves or their spouse. This is not mentioned in Singapore's policy summary.
4. Canada has initiatives like the CanCode program to promote digital skills among students from kindergarten to grade 12 and provide teachers with the tools needed to teach digital skills and coding. This specific focus on promoting digital skills among students and teachers is not highlighted in Singapore's policy summary.
5. Canada's WDAs aim to help underrepresented groups, such as people with disabilities, Indigenous people, and women in trades, to access the training and services they need to find and keep good jobs. This focus on underrepresented groups is not mentioned in Singapore's policy summary.

Business Sophistication¶

In [ ]:
# Importing relevant libraries needed for GPT and set parameters
try:
    import openai
except:
    !pip install openai
    import openai
In [ ]:
## API Key

import os
API_KEY= "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" #Bohan's API Key

os.environ['OPENAI_API_KEY'] = API_KEY
openai.api_key = os.getenv("OPENAI_API_KEY")

## OpenAI API parameters
model = "gpt-4" # 16K tokens
max_tokens = 2048
n = 1
stop = None
temperature = 0.5
In [ ]:
link_export_GRED = 'https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/statistical-programs/document/5198_D1_T2_V1,\
  https://www.asiaiplaw.com/article/singapore-is-the-7th-most-innovative-country-in-the-world'
In [ ]:
prompt_2_8 = "Given two websites, one detailing Singapore's GERD financed by business and the other about Canada's GERD in the same area,\
 please analyze the advantages of Singapore's approach and the policies that Canada lacks. Based on this comparison, \
 summarize five policy recommendations that could benefit Canada in enhancing its business-financed GERD.\
  The website link is: '{input8}'.".format(input8 = link_export_GRED)

# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt_2_8[:min(len(prompt_2_8),40000)]
Out[ ]:
"Given two websites, one detailing Singapore's GERD financed by business and the other about Canada's GERD in the same area, please analyze the advantages of Singapore's approach and the policies that Canada lacks. Based on this comparison,  summarize five policy recommendations that could benefit Canada in enhancing its business-financed GERD.  The website link is: 'https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/statistical-programs/document/5198_D1_T2_V1,  https://www.asiaiplaw.com/article/singapore-is-the-7th-most-innovative-country-in-the-world'."
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the first prompt

response_2_8 = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful  assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt_2_8[:min(len(prompt_2_8),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput_2_8 = response_2_8.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput_2_8)
As an AI text-based model, I'm unable to directly access or browse the internet, including the specific websites you provided. However, I can provide a general comparison and policy recommendations based on commonly known facts about Singapore's and Canada's approach to Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D (GERD) financing.

Singapore is known for its robust innovation ecosystem, supported by strong government policies and significant private sector investment. The country's GERD is largely financed by businesses, which shows a high level of industry involvement in R&D activities. This approach has several advantages:

1. It encourages a culture of innovation within the private sector.
2. It ensures that R&D activities are closely aligned with market needs.
3. It promotes collaboration between industry and academia.
4. It reduces dependence on public funding for R&D.
5. It stimulates economic growth and competitiveness.

On the other hand, Canada has a well-developed R&D ecosystem, but it might lack some of the policies that have contributed to Singapore's success in business-financed GERD. Based on this comparison, here are five policy recommendations that could benefit Canada:

1. **Encourage Private Sector Investment**: Implement policies that incentivize businesses to invest in R&D, such as tax credits or grants.
2. **Promote Industry-Academia Collaboration**: Foster partnerships between universities and businesses to ensure that R&D activities are aligned with market needs.
3. **Support Start-ups and SMEs**: Provide financial and non-financial support to start-ups and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) engaged in R&D.
4. **Develop a Strong Intellectual Property (IP) Regime**: A robust IP regime can encourage innovation by ensuring that businesses can protect and profit from their R&D outcomes.
5. **Invest in Skills Development**: Equip the workforce with the necessary skills for R&D through education and training programs.

Remember, these are general recommendations and the specific needs and circumstances of Canada's R&D ecosystem should be taken into account when developing policies.
In [ ]:
prompt_2_9 = "one detailing American's GERD financed by business and the other about Canada's GERD in the same area,\
 please analyze the advantages of American's approach and the policies that Canada lacks. Based on this comparison, \
 summarize five policy recommendations that could benefit Canada in enhancing its business-financed GERD."

# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt_2_9[:min(len(prompt_2_9),40000)]
Out[ ]:
"one detailing American's GERD financed by business and the other about Canada's GERD in the same area, please analyze the advantages of American's approach and the policies that Canada lacks. Based on this comparison,  summarize five policy recommendations that could benefit Canada in enhancing its business-financed GERD."
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the first prompt

response_2_9 = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful  assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt_2_9[:min(len(prompt_2_9),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput_2_9 = response_2_9.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput_2_9)
GERD, or Gross Domestic Expenditure on Research and Development, is a vital indicator of a country's investment in innovation and technological advancement. In the United States, a significant portion of GERD is financed by businesses, which has led to a thriving innovation ecosystem. On the other hand, Canada's GERD is not as heavily financed by businesses, leading to potential gaps in innovation and progress.

Advantages of American's Approach:
1. Increased Innovation: The US has a high level of private sector participation in R&D, which leads to more innovation and technological advancements.
2. Job Creation: R&D activities financed by businesses often lead to job creation in high-tech sectors.
3. Economic Growth: Business-financed R&D contributes to economic growth by developing new products and services that can be commercialized.
4. Global Competitiveness: The US's approach to GERD enhances its global competitiveness, as it allows for rapid technological advancements.
5. Self-Sustaining: Since businesses finance a significant portion of R&D, the US government doesn't need to allocate as much public funding to this area.

Based on this comparison, here are five policy recommendations that could benefit Canada in enhancing its business-financed GERD:

1. Tax Incentives: Canada could offer more generous tax credits for businesses that invest in R&D. This could incentivize more private sector investment in innovation.
2. Public-Private Partnerships: The Canadian government could form partnerships with private businesses to jointly fund R&D projects. This could help share the risk and reward of innovation.
3. Innovation Clusters: Canada could encourage the creation of innovation clusters, where businesses, universities, and government entities collaborate on R&D. These clusters can spur innovation and economic growth.
4. Regulatory Reform: Canada could streamline its regulatory processes to make it easier for businesses to invest in R&D. This could include reducing red tape and speeding up approval processes for new technologies.
5. Investment in Education: Canada could invest more in STEM education to ensure a steady supply of skilled workers for its R&D sector. This could help attract businesses to invest in R&D in Canada.

Infrastructure¶

In [ ]:
from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()
Upload widget is only available when the cell has been executed in the current browser session. Please rerun this cell to enable.
Saving 5008-Infoblatt StromVG d.pdf to 5008-Infoblatt StromVG d (1).pdf
Saving 9740-Programmstrategie ECH 2021-2030.pdf to 9740-Programmstrategie ECH 2021-2030 (1).pdf
Saving Energy Strategy 2050 once the new energy act is in force.pdf to Energy Strategy 2050 once the new energy act is in force (1).pdf
In [ ]:
## Import or install PDF-to-text library
try:
    import PyPDF2
except:
    !pip install PyPDF2
    import PyPDF2
Collecting PyPDF2
  Downloading pypdf2-3.0.1-py3-none-any.whl (232 kB)
     ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 232.6/232.6 kB 3.5 MB/s eta 0:00:00
Installing collected packages: PyPDF2
Successfully installed PyPDF2-3.0.1
In [ ]:
def extract_text_from_pdf(pdf_path):
    with open(pdf_path, 'rb') as file:
        reader = PyPDF2.PdfReader(file)
        text = ''
        for page_number in range(len(reader.pages)):
            page = reader.pages[page_number]
            text += page.extract_text()
    return text
In [ ]:
# Example usage
swiss_energy_files = [
    '5008-Infoblatt StromVG d.pdf',
    '9740-Programmstrategie ECH 2021-2030.pdf',
    'Energy Strategy 2050 once the new energy act is in force.pdf']

# Extract text from each PDF and combine
swiss_energy_text = ""
for file in swiss_energy_files:
    swiss_energy_text += extract_text_from_pdf(file)
In [ ]:
print(swiss_energy_text)
 
 Eidgenössisches Departement für  
Umwelt, Verkehr, Energie und Kommunikation UVEK 
Bundesamt für Energie BFE 
  
 
 
 C:\Documents and Settings\u80770367\Local Settings\Temporary Internet Files\OLK1B\Infoblatt StromVG d.doc 
 
 April 2010 
Infoblatt: Stromverso rgungsgesetz (StromVG)  
Am 22. September 2002 lehnten die Schweizer Stim mbürgerinnen und -bürger das Elektrizitätsmarkt-
gesetz (EMG) mit 52,5% Nein-Stimmen ab. In der Folge beauftragte der Bundesrat die Verwaltung, 
eine neue Vorlage für die Öffnung des schweizerischen Strommarktes vorzubereiten. Von März 2003 
bis Juni 2004 erarbeitete eine vom UVEK eingesetzte Expertenkommiss ion unter Leitung der Berner 
Alt-Regierungsrätin Dori Schaer-Born einen neu en Gesetzesentwurf, der den Hauptgründen für die 
Ablehnung des EMG ebenso Rechnung tragen sollte wie den drei wesentliche Rahmenbedingungen, 
die sich seit der EMG-Abstimmung ergeben hatten:  1.) Der Bundesgericht sentscheid von Mitte 2003 
im Fall Entreprises Electriques Fribourgeoises (EEF) gegen Watt/Migros (BGE 129 II 497), in welchem die faktische Marktöffnung auf Basis des Kartellgeset zes verfügt wurde. 2.) Da s weitere Fortschreiten 
der Liberalisierung in der Europäischen Union, de ren Strommärkte seit 1. Juli 2007 vollständig geöff-
net sind. 3.) Der Stromausfall vom 28. September 2003 in Italien. 
Der Bundesrat verabschiedete die Botschaft zum Bundesgesetz über die Stromversorgung (StromVG) 
und zur Revision des Elektrizitätsgesetzes (EleG) am 3. Dezember 2004. Die eidgenössischen Räte 
stimmten der Vorlage in der Schlussabstimmung vom 23. März 2007 deutlich zu (Annahme im Natio-nalrat mit 166:27 Stimmen und im Ständerat mit 41: 0 Stimmen bei 1 Enthaltung). Die Referendums-
frist lief am 12. Juli 2007 unbenutzt ab. 
Das vom Parlament verabschiedete Gesetz sieht eine  zweistufige Marktöffnung vor: In den ersten fünf 
Jahren (2009-2013) haben Endverbraucher mit einem Jahresverbrauch von mehr als 100'000 kWh 
freien Marktzugang. Nach fünf Jahren können dan n auch Haushalte und andere Kleinverbraucher 
ihren Stromlieferanten frei wählen. Die Einführ ung der vollen Marktöffnung erfolgt per Bundesbe-
schluss, der einem fakultativen Referendum unt ersteht. Das Höchstspannungsnetz muss von einer 
nationalen Netzgesellschaft (swissgrid) mit Schw eizer Mehrheitsbeteiligung betrieben werden. Fünf 
Jahre nach Inkrafttreten des Ge setzes muss auch das Eigentum an den Höchstspann ungsnetzen an 
diese Netzgesellschaft übergehen. 
Zusammen mit dem Stromversorgungsgesetz wurde mi t der Revision des Energiegesetzes auch ein 
Paket von Massnahmen zur Förderung der erneuerbar en Energien sowie zur Förderung der Effizienz 
im Elektrizitätsbereich. Hauptpfeiler ist dabei die kostendeckende Einspeisevergütung für Strom aus 
erneuerbaren Energien. Das revidierte Energiege setz schreibt vor, dass die Stromerzeugung aus 
erneuerbaren Energien bis zum Jahr 2030 um mi ndestens 5,4 Milliarden Kilowattstunden erhöht wer-
den muss. Das entspricht rund 10% des heutigen St romverbrauchs (2008: 58,7 Milliarden Kilowatt-
stunden). 
Die im Herbst 2008 angekündigten Strompreiser höhungen führten in Wirtsc haft, Politik und Öffentlich-
keit zu teils heftigen Reaktionen. Bundesrat Moritz Leuenberger führte dazu im Oktober 2008 eine 
Aussprache mit Vertretern der Stromwirtschaft sowie der Kantone und Gemeinden durch. Aufgrund 
der Ergebnisse wurde eine Vorlage zur Revision der Stromversorgungsverordnung erarbeitet, die der Bundesrat am 5. Dezember 2008 verabschiedete. Di e Revision beschränkte sich auf wenige Punkte, 
vor allem auf die Netzkosten und die Kosten für di e Systemdienstleistungen (Reserveenergie). Wei-
tergehende Anpassungen der gesetzlichen Grundlagen wollte der Bundesrat erst nach Auswertung 
der ersten praktischen Erfahrungen mit der neuen Marktordnung in Angriff nehmen. Zudem wollte er 
die Untersuchungen und die ersten Entscheide der Elektrizitätskommission nicht behindern.  
 16. Dezember 2019  
 Programmstrategie  
 
EnergieSchweiz  
2021 bis 2030  
 
 
 
  
Die vorliegende Programmstrategie wurde am 16.12. 2019 vom  Generalsekretariat UVEK verab-
schiedet.  
 
Aus Gründen der einfacheren Lesbarkeit wird bei der Beschreibung von Akteuren und Zielgruppen 
auf die geschlechtliche Differenzierung verzichtet. Entsprechende Begriffe gelten im Sinne der 
Gleichbehandlung grundsätzlich für beide Geschlechter.  
 
 
 
Adresse  
EnergieSchweiz , Bundesamt für Energie BFE  
Mühlestrasse 4, CH -3063 Ittigen. Postadresse: 3003 Bern  
Infoline 0848 444 444. www.energieschweiz.ch/beratung  
energieschweiz@bfe.admin.ch, www.energieschweiz.ch  3 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Zusammenfassung  
EnergieSchweiz ist die zentrale Plattform des Bundes für Sensibilisierung, Information, Beratung, 
Aus- und Weiterbildung sowie für die Qualitätssicherung in den Themengebieten Energieeffizienz 
und erneuerbare Energien. EnergieSchweiz ist ein integraler Bestandteil des Massnahmenmix der 
Schweizer Energiepolitik. Dabei orientiert sich das Programm an den im Energiegesetz festgelegten 
Zielvo rgaben für den Energie - und den Stromverbrauch sowie der Stromproduktion aus erneuerba-
ren Energien. Das Programm verstärkt und ergänzt mittels freiwillige r Massnahmen  die Wirkungen 
der anderen Fördermassnahmen. EnergieSchweiz zielt vor allem auf den Abbau nicht preislicher 
Hemmnisse und entsprechender Transaktionskosten, die der Realisierung von Effizienzmassnah-
men und der Ausschöpfung des Potenzials an erneuerbaren Energien entgegenstehen.  
Die Programmstrategie EnergieSchweiz 2021 –2030 baut auf dem vom Bun desrat im Jahr 2018 
verabschiedeten strategische n Auftrag EnergieSchweiz 2021 –2030 auf und konkretisiert diesen.  
Folglich dient die vorliegende  Programmstrategie den Programmverantwortlichen und den Projekt-
begleitenden als Orientierung bei der Bestimmung d er konkreten Massnahmen und der Ressour-
cenallokation sowie den internen und externen Stakeholdern als Basis für ein gemeinsames Ver-
ständnis der Ausrichtung von EnergieSchweiz.  
Die bisherigen Schwerpunkte von EnergieSchweiz werden durch prioritäre Handlungs felder ersetzt. 
Dies entspricht den aktuellen Bedürfnissen bezüglich Flexibilität und Priorisierung  von Energie-
Schweiz. Die drei prioritären Handlungsfelder sind:  
 G: Gebäudeeffizienz und erneuerbare Energien für private Haushalte (vgl. Kapitel 3) 
 M: Mobilität von privaten Haushalten und Unternehmen (vgl. Kapitel 4) 
 A: Anlagen und Pro zesse in Industrie und Dienstleistungen ( vgl. Kapitel 5)  
Diese drei Handlungsfelder  sind verantwortlich für total 74 Prozent des Endenergieverbrauchs der 
Schweiz. Entsprechend sollen für Massnahmen in diesen drei Handlungsfeldern mindestens drei 
Viertel des Gesamtbudgets von EnergieSchweiz eingesetzt werden . 
Die prioritären Handlungsfelder werden durch weitere Handlungsfelder , u.a. Grossanlagen für er-
neuerbare Energie und Netze und Speicher  ergänzt . Die Handlungsfelder  werden durch Quer-
schnittsthemen  unterstützt . Diese umfassen die  Aus- und Weiterbildung, Städte , Gemeinden,  Quar-
tiere und Regionen,  Kommunikation, Zusammenarbeit mit dem Klimaprogramm des BAFU , Digita-
lisierung  sowie Innovation . Die Querschnittsthemen sind zentral, um die  prioritären Handlungsfelder  
zu adressieren . 4 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Inhalt  
 
Zusammenfassung  ................................ ................................ ................................ ..............................  2 
 Einleitung  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...............................  6 
1.1 Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ..........................  6 
1.2 Zweck der Prog rammstrategie  ................................ ................................ ................................ . 7 
1.3 Gliederung  ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................  7 
1.4 Prozesse zur Def inition der prioritären Handlungsfelder: Erstellung Produktstrategie und 
Ressourcenallokation  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...............  7 
 Eckpfeiler EnergieSchweiz 2021 –2030  ................................ ................................ ...............  9 
2.1 Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..........  9 
2.2 SWOT -Analyse  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 10 
2.3 Strategie  ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .11 
 Gebäude und erneue rbare Energien in privaten Haushalten  ................................ .........  14 
3.1 Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 14 
3.2 Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 19 
3.3 Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 21 
 Mobilität von Privaten und Unternehmen  ................................ ................................ .........  24 
4.1 Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 24 
4.2 Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 29 
4.3 Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 30 
 Anlagen und Prozesse in Industrie und Dienstleistungen  ................................ .............  36 
5.1 Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 36 
5.2 Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 41 
5.3 Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 43 
 Weitere Handlungsfelder  ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 46 
6.1 Gebäude und erneuerbare Energien in Industrie und Dienstleistungen  ................................ 46 
6.2 Elektrogeräte und Beleuchtungen in privaten Haushalten  ................................ ..................... 47 
6.3 Grossanlagen für erneuerbare  Energien  ................................ ................................ ............... 49 
6.4 Netze und Speicherung ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 51 5 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 
 Querschnittsthemen  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...........  53 
7.1 Aus- und Weiterbildung  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 53 
7.2 Städte, Gemeinden, Quartiere und Regionen  ................................ ................................ .......55 
7.3 Klimaschutz  ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 57 
7.4 Digitalisierung  ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 57 
7.5 Innovation  ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 59 
 Kommunikation  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................  61 
8.1 Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 61 
8.2 Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 62 
8.3 Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 62 
 Zusammenarbeit mit Partnern  ................................ ................................ ...........................  64 
 Anhang  ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ . 65 
10.1  Tabellenverzeichnis  ................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 65 
10.2  Ausführliches Inhaltsverzeichnis  ................................ ................................ ............................ 65 
 
 
Ein ausführliches Inhal tsverzeichnis befindet sich im Anhang.   6 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 
 Einleitung   
1.1 Ausgangslage   
Das Aktionsprogramm EnergieSchweiz basiert auf seinem Vorgänger Energie 2000 und wurde vom 
Bundesrat im Jahr 2001 eingeführt. Es stützt sich auf den  Verfassungsauftrag im Energie - und 
Klimabereich (Art. 73, 74 und 89 der Bundesverfassung, SR 101) und das Energiegesetz (Art. 2, 3, 
47, 48 und 50, SR 730.0 ). Entsprechend ist das Ziel von EnergieSchweiz, die Energieeffizienz und 
den Anteil der erneuerbare n Energien in der Schweiz zu erhöhen.  
In der Phase von 2011 –2020 hat sich EnergieSchweiz Ziele und Massnahmen in acht Schwerpunkten 
gesetzt. Im Jahr 2012 verstärkte der Bundesrat im Rahmen des ersten Massnahmenpakets zur Um-
setzung der Energiestrategie 205 0 das Programm EnergieSchweiz und definierte dieses als integralen 
Bestandteil  der Energiestrategie  2050 . Dabei  wurde das Budget auf 55 Millionen Franken erhöht  und 
Massnahmen namentlich in den Themengebieten  energieeffiziente und emissionsarme Mobilität, 
elektrische  Geräte  und Motoren, Industr ie und Dienstleistungen, Städte  und Gemeinden sowie Aus - 
und Weiterbildung verstärkt . Für die  Phase 2021 –2030 wurde vom Bundesrat eine inhaltliche Fokus-
sierung sowie eine Reduktion des Budgets (derzeit bei 44 Millionen Franken) vorgegeben .  
EnergieSchweiz is t die zentrale Plattform des Bundes für Sensibilisierung, Information, Beratung, 
Aus- und Weiterbildung sowie  die Qualitätssicherung in den  Themengebieten  Energieeffizienz und 
erneuerbare Ene rgien. Das Programm hat Angebote wie Minergie, 2000 Watt -Areale, Energie-
städte, Zielvereinbarungen für die Wirtschaft oder Mobility CarSharing mitentwickelt. Es verstärkt 
mit freiwilligen Massnahmen die Wirkung der regulativen Massnahmen und der anderen Fö rder-
massnahmen. Es zielt vor allem auf den Abbau der Hemmnisse, die der Ausschöpfung von Ener-
gieeffizienzmassnahmen und des Potenzial s an erneue rbaren Energien entgegenstehen.  Energie-
Schweiz ist ein partnerschaftliches Programm und arbeitet eng zusammen mi t Kantonen, Städten, 
Gemeinden und Partnern aus der Wirtschaft, Umwelt - und Konsumentenorganisationen sowie pri-
vatwirtschaftlichen Agenturen.  
Der Energielandschaft der Schweiz stehen bedeutende Veränderungen auf energietechnischer und 
politischer Ebene bev or, welche neue Möglichkeiten  und Anforderungen  im Energiemarkt mit sich 
bringen. Die Schweiz hat sich im Rahmen des Pariser Klimaübereinkommens verpflichtet, bis 2030 
ihren Treibhausgasausstoss gegenüber dem Stand von 1990 zu halbieren. Aufgrund der neuen  
wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnisse des Weltklimarates hat der Bundesrat im August 2019 entschie-
den, dieses Ziel zu verschärfen: Ab dem Jahr 2050 soll die Schweiz unter dem Strich keine Treib-
hausgasemissionen mehr ausstossen. Die fortschreitende Elektrifizier ung, die Substitution von fos-
silen Treib - und Brennstoffen im Verkehr und in der Wärmeproduktion bewirken eine  Dekarbonisie-
rung des Energieverbrauchs. Erneuerbare Energien werden dank Kostensenkungen zu relevanten 
Alternativen für fossile Energieträger . Durch technische Innovationen verschwimmen die Grenzen 
zwischen Energiekonsumenten und -produzenten immer mehr, was neue Akteure wie Eigenver-
brauchsgemeinschaften schafft. Gleichzeitig benötigen zum Beispiel die Nutzung von Blockchains 
und des Internet of Th ings für Datenspeicher, Sensoren und weitere Komponenten Energie für Pro-
duktion und Betrieb und führen damit zu einem Mehrverbrauch an elektrischer Energie.  7 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Standardisie rten Massnahmen, abgeleitet aus den Gesetzen, geling t es immer weniger , die Dyna-
mik und K leinräumigkeit der Gesellschaft zu adressieren, die sich als Folge des Individualismus  
bilden . Nachhaltige Lösungen werden immer seltener von einer zentralen Aut orität angeordnet, son-
dern partnerschaft lich entwickelt und finanziert im Rah men von Public Private Partnerships . Die 
Massnahmen von EnergieSchweiz können rasch auf diese Marktdynamiken reagieren, reduzieren 
den Regulierungsbedarf und haben aufgrund ihrer Neutralität und Freiwilligkeit eine hohe Glaub-
würdigkeit bei Unternehmen, Pri vaten und der öffentlichen Hand.  
1.2 Zweck der Programmstrategie   
Die vorliegende Programmstrategie ist die Ko nkretisierung des vom Bundesrat im Dezember 2018 
verabschiedeten strategischen Auftrag s «EnergieSchweiz 2021 bis 2030 ». Sie dient den Pro-
grammverantw ortlichen und den Projektbegleitenden als Orientierung zur Bestimmung der konkre-
ten Mass nahmen und Ressourcenallokation sowie  internen und externen Stakeholdern als Basis 
für ein gemeinsames Verständnis der Ausrichtung von EnergieSchweiz.  Die Programmstrat egie 
EnergieSchweiz 2021 –2030 wird regelmässig überprüft . Gegebenenfalls werden Anpassungen vor-
genommen, welche  durch die Geschäftsleitung des Bundesamts für Energie ( BFE) beantragt und 
durch das Generalsekretariat  (GS) des  UVEK zur Umsetzung freigegeben  werden . Die Pro gramm-
strategie und die grösseren Änderungen werden zudem den externen Stakeholdern zur Konsulta-
tion unterbreitet.   
1.3 Gliederung   
In Kapitel 2 werden die groben Züge der Strategie von EnergieSchweiz für die Periode von 2021 –
2030 dargestellt. In den darauffolgenden drei Kapiteln werden die drei prioritären Handlungsfelder 
beleuchtet: Kapitel 3 beschäftigt sich mit den Gebäuden und erneuerbaren Energien in privaten 
Haushalten, Kapitel 4 mit der Mobilität von Privaten und Unternehmen und Kapitel 5 mit den Anlagen 
und Prozessen in Industrie und Dienstleistungen. Anschliessend stellen Kapitel 6 weitere  Hand-
lungsfelder für Massnahmen und Kapitel 7 einige Querschnittsthemen dar. In Kapitel 8 wird das 
Thema Kommunikation diskutiert. Kapitel 10 beschreibt die Zusammenarbeit mit Partnern , Kapitel 
10 bildet den Anhang und gleichzeitig den Abschluss d ieses Dokuments.  
1.4 Prozesse zur Definition der prioritären Handlungsfelder:  
Erstellung Produktstrategie und Ressourcenallokation  
Die prioritären Handlungsfelder wurden in einem standardisierten Prozess definiert, einer soge-
nannten Umfeldanalyse.  
Die Priorisierung der Handlungsfelder wird durch das BFE erstellt und durch das UVEK unter Beizug 
der Strategiegruppe freigegeben. Die möglichen Handlungsfelder werden durch die Massnahmen der 
Energiestrategie 2050 und die Zielgruppen bestehend aus Private n, Unternehmen und der öffentlichen 
Hand in einer Matrix aufgespannt.  8 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Um die prioritären Handlungsfelder zu bestimmen , werden die 21 Handlungsfelder bezüglich ihrem 
Potenzial  für freiwillige Massnahmen (im Hinblick auf Energieeffizienz und erneuerbare Ene rgien) be-
wertet. Da einzelne Handlungsfelder einen starken Zusammenhang mit anderen Handlungsfeldern 
haben, werden diese zu prioritären Handlungsfeldern zusammengeschlossen. So bestehen die für 
2021 priorisierten Handlungsfelder (Mobilität, Gebäude  und ern euerbare Energien  und Anlagen und 
Prozesse) aus jeweils zwei Handlungsfeldern.  
 
Tabelle 1: Prioritäre Handlungsfelder EnergieSchweiz 2021 –2030 nach Massnahmen der Energiestrategie 
2050 (Botschaft vom 4. September 2013, BBl 2013 75 61) und nach Zielgruppen Private, Unternehmen sowie 
öffentliche Hand.  
Massnahmen Energiestrategie 2050  Zielgruppen  
Private  Unternehmen  Öffentliche Hand  
Energieeffizienz Gebäude     
Energieeffizienz Industrie und Dienstleistungen     
Energieeffizienz Mobilität     
Energieeffizienz Elektrogeräte     
Energieeffizienz Stromlieferanten     
Erneuerbare Energien     
Diverse (WKK, Netze usw.)     
 
Entsprechend der Fokussierung auf die drei prioritären Handlungsfelder werden die Ressourcen 
zugeteilt und die spezifischen Zielgruppen individuell angesprochen.  
Die Beurteilung der Prioritäten wurde intern wie extern vorgenommen . Dazu wurden eine Onlineum-
frage  und Experteninterviews  durchgeführt, sowie Beratungen in der  EnergieSchweiz Strategie-
gruppe, der Geschäftsleitung  BFE und mit den  Schwerpunktverantwortliche n von EnergieSchweiz  
geführt . Insgesamt  waren die Prioritäten eindeutig.  
Da einzelne Handlungsfelder einen starken Zusammenhang mit anderen Handlungsfeldern haben, 
werden diese zu prioritären Hand lungsfeldern zusammengeschlossen  (vgl. Kap 2.2).  
Neben den prioritären Handlungsfelder n bestehen weitere relevan te Handlungsfelder  mit tieferer 
Priorität. EnergieSchwe iz kann auf Grund ihres  allgemeinen Auftrages und einer politischen Ausge-
wogenheit nicht ganze Themenfelder ausschliessen , für den Fall, dass  ihnen eine Relevanz im Rah-
men des Auftrages von EnergieSchweiz zukommt.  
Für die priori tären Handlungsfelder werde n mindestens 75 Prozent  und für die weiteren Handlungs-
felder bis zu 20 Prozent  der Ressourcen alloziert. Rund 5 Prozent  der Ressourcen werden für Scou-
ting und Akquisition  innovativer Umsetzungen und Partner aufgewendet. Dadurch soll sichergestellt 
werden, dass Partner und Projekte mit dem grössten Nutzen für die Energie strategie  2050  unter-
stützt und um gesetzt werden.  
Jährlich wird die Ressourcenallokation an der Programmle iterkonferenz auf Projektebene im Rah-
men der strategischen Vorgaben konkretisiert und die operative Umsetzung durch  Projekte geplant .  9 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 
 Eckpfeiler EnergieSchweiz 2021 –2030   
2.1 Ziele  
Energie Schweiz ist ein integraler Bestandteil des Massnahmenmix der Schweizer Energiepolitik. 
Das Programm verstärkt und ergänzt mittels freiwilligen Massnahmen in den Themengebieten  Ener-
gieeffizienz und erneuerbaren Energien die Wirkungen der anderen Fördermassna hmen. Es trägt 
dazu bei, dass die Schweizer Bevölkerung, die Unternehmen und die öffentliche Hand über die 
nötigen Kompetenzen verfügen und sich engagieren, alle relev anten Potenz iale in den Themenge-
bieten der Energieeffizienz und erneuerbaren Energien aus zuschöpfen. Das Programm sensibili-
siert, informiert und berät neutral und produkteunabhängig Private, Unternehmen und die öffentliche 
Hand zu Energiethemen, fördert innovative Projekte und unterstützt die Aus - und Weiterbildung der 
benötigten Fachkräfte so wie die Qualitätssicherung der eingesetzten Technologien.  Energie-
Schweiz vernetzt die Akteure  und fördert den Wissenstransfer.  Über die Projektförderung unterstützt 
EnergieSchweiz die Verbreitung von neuen Technologien. Es trägt dazu bei, dass Neues marktfähig 
wird, Fuss fassen kann und Sichtbarkeit erlangt.  
EnergieSchweiz zielt vor allem auf den Abbau nicht preislicher Hemmnisse und entsprechender 
Transaktionskosten, die der Realisierung von Effizienzmassnahmen  und der Ausschöpfung des Po-
tenzials an erneuerbaren Energien entgegenstehen. Als Plattform setzt  das Programm sämtliche 
unterstützenden Massnahmen unter einem Dach um und macht Synergien nutzbar. Dadurch wer-
den Doppelspurigkeiten vermieden. Es trägt zur marktkonfo rmen Einführung und Verbreitung neuer 
Technologien und innovativer Anwendungen sowie zur Schaffung nachhaltiger Arbeitsplätze in die-
sen Bereichen bei. Projekte, die von EnergieSchweiz unterstützt werden, sollen sich langfristig auf 
dem Markt etablieren, we shalb die Finanzierung zeitlich befristet ist. Gegebenenfalls werden spezi-
fische Absenkpfade für die Finanzierung definiert.  
Das Aktionsprogramm EnergieSchweiz soll die Wirkung der regulativen Massnahmen, der Förder-
massnahmen und der marktwirtschaftlichen Massnahmen möglichst effektiv und effizient verstär-
ken. Damit soll ein wesentlicher Beitrag zur Zielerreichung in den Themengebieten  Energieeffizienz 
und erneuerbare Energien der Energiestrategie 2050 geleistet werden. Durch die Stärkung der frei-
willigen M assnahmen soll der künftige Regulierungsbedarf so gering wie nötig gehalten werden.  
EnergieSchweiz definiert keine neuen Energie - oder Klimaziele. Für die Massnahmen in den einzel-
nen Handlungsfeldern sind jedoch Ziele zur Orientierung sehr wichtig. Diese Z iele sind aus der 
Energiestrategie, dem CO 2-Gesetz oder deren Grundlagen  hergeleitet,  wie z.B. aus der Botschaft 
und den Energieperspektiven, veröffentlichten Leitfäden , Visionen sowie  Roadmaps.  
Konkret soll der Energieverbrauch pro Person und Jahr gegenü ber dem Stand im Jahr 2000 bis 
zum Jahr 2035 um 43  Proze nt und der Stromverbrauch um 13  Prozent gesenkt werden. Die 
durchschnittliche inländische Produktion von Elektrizität im Jahr 2035 soll für erneuerbare Ener-
gien, ohne  Wasserkraft, bei mindestens 11  400 GWh liegen, während es bei der Wasserk raft 
mindestens 37  400 GWh sein sollen. Im August 2019 hat der Bundesrat entschieden, dass die 
Schweiz bis 2050 das Ziel verfolgt, die CO 2-Emissionen insgesamt auf Null zu reduzieren. Bereits 
2013 hatte sich der Bu ndesrat zum Ziel gesetzt, die jährlichen CO 2-Emissionen aus dem fossilen 10 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Energieverbrauch bis 2050 auf 1 bis 1.5 Tonnen pro Kopf zu senken (vgl. Botschaft vom 4. Sep-
tember 2013 zum ersten Massnahmenpaket der Energiestrategie 2050, BBI 2013 7561, Ziff. 2.1,  
2.3.1 und 2.5.1).   
Die formulierten Ziele in der Programmstrategie haben keinen politischen Anspruch und stellen kei-
nen neuen Vorgaben dar, sondern dienen einzig der Orientierung des Programms EnergieSchweiz.  
2.2 SWOT -Analyse  
Im Rahmen der strategischen Vorbe reitungsarbeiten für die vorliegende Programmstrategie wurde 
eine umfassende SWOT -Analyse für EnergieSchweiz erstellt.  
Die wichtigsten Stärken von EnergieSchweiz sind:  
 hohe Vertrauenswürdigkeit: Neutralität, Fachkompetenz, Freiwilligkeit , Absender Bund  
 flächendeckendes Netzwerk  (aktuell ca. 450 Partner)  
 klare gesetzliche Grundlage  und Bestätigung durch den Bundesrat  
 hohe Flexibilität  und Individualität  im Vergleich zu  Verordnungen  
 Relevanz de r Themen  Energie  und Klima  
 hohe Innovationskraft im Vergleich zur öffentlichen Hand  
Die wichtigsten Schwächen von EnergieSchweiz sind:  
 politische Exposition (aktive Gegner der Energiestrategie)  und Konjunktur  
 Die Them en Energie  und Klima  werden  als stark ideologisiert wa hrgenommen . 
 Planungssicherheit Budgetverfügbarkeit  
 Umgang mit Tabuthemen wie Ernährung, Flugverkehr  
 Direkter Wirkungsnachweis (k Wh) nicht eindeutig herleitbar, da verschiedene externe Faktoren 
auf die Ziele der Energiestrategie  wirken.  
Die wichtigsten Chancen von Energie Schweiz sind:  
 zunehmende Dynamik in Energietechnologie und Digitalisierung  
 zunehmende Relevanz der Energie - und Klima themen für Politik und Bevölkerung  
 Bestehende Lösungen , welche sich auf dem Markt noch zu  wenig durchgesetzt haben . 
 Integration des Themas Klima  dort, wo Energie aspekte  relevant  sind.  
 wachsender Bedarf bei der Aus- und Weiterbildung  
Die wichtigsten Gefahren für EnergieSchweiz  
 Widerstand der «alten» Technologien  
 Verlust Vertrauens basis bei Zielgruppen und Partnern  
 nicht adäquates  Controlling wegen  Ressourcen engpass und ex ternen Anforderungen  
 weitere Reduktion der Finanzmittel und Personal ressourcen  11 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 2.3 Strategie   
Die bisherigen Schwerpunkte von EnergieSchweiz werden durch prioritäre Handlungsfelder ersetzt . 
Dies entspricht den aktuellen Bedürfnissen bezüglich Flexibilität und Repriorisierung  von Energie-
Schweiz.  Die prioritären Handlungsfelder wurden in einem standardisierten Prozess definiert, einer 
sogenannten Umfeldanalyse (vgl. Kapitel 1.4).  
Tabelle 2: Prioritäre Handlungsfelder EnergieSchweiz 2021 –2030 nach Massnahmen der Energiestrategie 
2050 (Botschaft vom 4. September 2013, BBl 2013 7561) und nach den Zielgruppen Private, Unternehmen 
sowie öffentliche Hand. Die Prozentzahlen in Klammern stellen den anteiligen Energieverbrauch des Hand-
lungsfeldes dar.  
Massnahmen Energiestrategie 2050  Zielgruppen  
Private  Unternehmen  Öffentliche Hand  
Energieeffizienz Gebäude  G (23  %)   
Energieeffizienz Industrie und Dienstleistungen   A (8 %)  
Energieeffizienz Mobilität  M (21  %) M (13  %)  
Energieeffizienz Elektrogeräte   A (9 %)  
Energieeffizienz Stromlieferanten     
Erneuerbare Energien  G   
Diverse  (WKK, Netze usw.)     
Daraus entstanden sind die drei folgenden prioritären Handlungsfelder:  
 G: Gebäudeeffizienz und erneuerbare Energien für priv ate Haushalte (vgl. Kapitel 3) 
 M: Mobilität von privaten Haushalten und Unt ernehmen (vgl. Kapitel 4) 
 A: Anlagen und Prozesse in Industr ie und Dienstleistungen (vgl. Kapitel 5).  
Diese drei Handlungsfelder  sind verantwortlich für total 74 Prozent des Endenergieverbrauchs der 
Schweiz. Entsprechend solle n für Massnahmen in diesen drei Handlungsfeldern mindestens drei 
Viertel des Gesamtbudgets von EnergieSchweiz eingesetzt werden. In allen drei Handlungsfeldern  
bestehen grosse Energieeffizienz - und Energieproduktionspotenziale . Im Handlungsfeld  Mobilität 
liegen diese Potenzial e unter anderem beim Kaufverhalten und der Wahl eines effizienteren Fahr-
zeugs. Dabei betragen die Effizienz potenzial e insgesamt über 50 Prozent. Im Handlungsfeld Ge-
bäude liegen die Potenzial e unter anderem in der gemeinsamen Betrachtun g von Effizienz und Pro-
duktion. Bei Gebäudesanierungen beträgt das Effizienz potenzial  bis zu 50 Prozent. Im Handlungs-
feld Anlagen und Prozessen liegen die Potenzial e in der Infrastruktur, inklusive der  Informations - 
und Kommunikationstechnologie und den Prozessanlagen , z.B. elektrische n Antriebssysteme n. 
Hier beträgt das Effizienz potenzial  20 bis 30 Prozent. Folglich können Massnahmen in diesen drei 
Handlungsfeldern bedeutende Wirkungen entfalten.  
Als Ergänzung zu diesen zentralen Handlungsfeldern werden  einige zusätzliche Massnahmenbe-
reiche  sowie das Querschnittsthema Innovation  in zweiter Priorität mit rund einem Viertel des Bud-
gets bearbeitet (vgl. Kapitel 6). Die f inanziellen Ressourcen (vgl. Kapitel  1.1) sind in ein Beschaf-
fungsbudget und in ein Subventionsbudget aufgeteilt. Es wird dabei weiterhin angestrebt, möglichst 
viel des  Gesamt budgets als Subvention einzusetzen. Der Vorteil  der Subvention ist, dass 60  Prozent  
oder mehr der finanziellen Mittel und der grösste Teil der Personalressourcen vom Markt getragen 
werden , was g leichzeitig bestätigt, dass das Projekt einem Marktbedürfnis entspricht.  12 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Die Querschnitts themen Städte , Gemeinden , Areale und Regionen, Aus - und Weiterbildung , Kom-
munikation  und Digitalisierung  sind Teil der Umsetzung in den prioritären und weiteren Handlungs-
felder n. Sie stellen sicher, dass die Infor mationen an die gewünschten Zielgruppen gelangen, die 
notwendigen Rahmenbedingungen geschaffen und die Fachkräfte ausgebildet werden.  
 
Dank der Fokussierung auf diese drei prioritären Handlungsfelder kann EnergieSchweiz rascher auf 
Entwicklungen reagieren , die aufgrund der erhöhten Dynamik im Energiemarkt bestehen, ausgelöst 
beispielsweise durch die Digitalisierung. EnergieSchweiz wird damit zukünftig über eine flexiblere 
Programms trategie anstatt über ein auf zehn Jahre ausgelegtes Detailkonzept geführt. Für diese 
Flexibilität und Agilität soll sich das Programm durch eine gewisse inhaltliche Offenheit auszeichnen. 
Zudem sollen finanzielle Freiheiten für neue Entwicklungen und Innovationen sichergestellt werden.  
Generell verfolgt EnergieSchweiz die Strateg ie einer noch wirksameren Unterstützung der regulati-
ven Massnahmen, der Fördermassnahmen sowie der marktwirtschaftlichen Massnahmen. Zu letz-
teren gehören die CO 2-Abgaben und das Emissionshandelssystem. Erreicht werden soll die erhöhte 
Wirksamkeit durch gez ielte begleitende Massnahmen, wie Sensibilisierung, Information, Beratung, 
Aus- und Weiterbi ldung sowie Qualitätssicherung.  Um eine Wirkung zu erreichen,  wird dabei immer 
eine Verhaltensänderung angestrebt, analog zu den regulativen Massnahmen . Im Falle von Ener-
gieSchweiz ist das eine freiwillige Änderung. Das Verhalten wird dabei in zwei Gruppen eingeteilt:  
 einmalige Entscheid ungs situation (selten, z.B. ein Heizungsersatz)  
 wiederholtes, bis zu tägliche m Verhalten (oft, z.B. die Wahl der Mobilitätsform)  
Bei der verhaltensorientierten Information wird verstärkt darauf geachtet, dass nicht nur ein be-
stimmtes Verhalten angepriesen wird (z.B. erneuerbar es Heizen) , sondern auch die Hemmnisse 
gegenüber diesem Verhalten (z.B. Komplexität  des Problems ) behoben wer den (z.B. durch neutrale 
Beratung). Damit wird für die entsprechende Zielgruppe eine neue Verhal tensoption geschaffen, die 
aufgrund des Nutzens und nicht wegen eines schlechten Gewissens freiwillig gewählt werden kann. 
Dies bedarf einer vorgängigen intensi ven Auseinandersetzung mit der jeweiligen Zielgruppe.  
  
13 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Bei den weiteren Handlungsfelde rn von EnergieSchweiz steht insbesondere die Innovation im Vor-
dergrund. Viele der notwendigen Technologien und Prozesse zur Umsetzung der Energiestrategie 
sind verfügbar , stehen aber in Konkurrenz zu etablierten Technologien und finden ihren Weg in den 
Markt nur sehr zögerlich. Ziel ist es, den Prozess zur Verankerung und «Industrialisierung» von 
Innovationen in den Themengebieten  Energieeffizienz und erneuerbare Energie im Markt zu be-
schleunigen. Die dazu notwen digen Massnahmen wie Scouting, Wettbewerb, Kommunikation, ge-
zielte Unterstützung und Risikoabschätzung werden verstärkt. Neu wird ein Teil des Budgets für die 
Erkennung von innovativen Ansätzen und neuen Themen im Markt verwendet.  
EnergieSchweiz will verstärkt vernetzte  Lösungen  anstreben, da d ie verschiedenen Handlungsfel-
der von EnergieSchweiz nicht isoliert adressiert werden  können . Produktion, Transport und Nutzung 
von Energie können nur dann besonders effizient realisiert werden, wenn die einzelnen Technolo-
gien aufeinander abgestimmt werden. Aufgrund dieses systemischen Ansatzes können einzelne 
Projekte nicht immer trennscharf ein em Handlungsfeld zugeordnet werden. Sie müssen ganzheitli-
cher und stärker vernetzt mit anderen Themen  bearbeitet werden , z.B. mit Gesundheit oder Sicher-
heit. Zudem ist es aufgrund möglicher technologischer und wirtschaftlicher Entwicklungen notwen-
dig, die Prioritäten periodisch zu überprüfen und gegebenenfalls anzupassen.  
Die Zusammenarbeit mit Partnern von EnergieSchweiz soll verstärkt werden. Dabei sollen me hr 
relevante Partner involviert und  die Zusammenarbeit flexibilisiert werden. Die bisherige, enge Z u-
sammenarbeit mit Kantonen, Städten, Gemeinden Quartieren und Regionen  wird fortgeführt. Als 
nationales Programm schafft EnergieSchweiz Synergien und entlastet die anderen Staatsebenen  
bei der Erarbeitung ähnlicher Aktivitäten. Aus - und Weiterbildungsangeb ote, Informations - und Be-
ratungsaktivitäten sowie innovative Konzepte und Projekte von EnergieSchweiz unterstützen deren 
Energiepolitik. Um die Synergien mit Kantone , Städten und Gemeinden optimal zu nutzen,  sind 
diese unter anderem auch in der Strategiegr uppe EnergieSchweiz vertreten.  
Weiter soll die interne Zusammenarbeit mit der Energieforschung und dem Pilot-, Demonstrations - 
und Leuchtturm - (P+D+L ) Programm optimiert werden , indem aktiv Projekte in EnergieSchweiz 
überführt werden . Auch die Zusammenarb eit mit den Verbänden der Wirtschaft sowie anderen Bun-
desämtern, z.B. dem Bundesamt für Umwelt ( BAFU ) und dem Bundesamt für Strassen ( ASTRA ), 
soll vertieft werden. Beispielsweise werden mit dem BAFU Klimaschutzthemen bzgl. des  CO 2-Ge-
setzes bestimmt und nac h Möglichkeit im Programm EnergieSchweiz integriert. Rund drei Viertel 
der Treibhausgasemissionen sind auf den Ausstoss von CO 2 durch die Verbrennung von fossilen 
Energien zurückzuführen. Die Reduktion der CO 2-Emissionen aus fossilen Brenn - und Treibstoffe n 
überschneidet sich folglich  stark mit der Erhöhung der Energieeffizienz und der Förderung von er-
neuerbaren Energien.  
Die vom Bundesrat beschlossenen nahtlose Fortführung des Programms bis 2030 stellt ein wichti-
ges Element der Umsetzung der Energiestrate gie 2050 dar. Mittels freiwilliger Massnahmen wird 
das Programm dazu beitragen, den künftigen Regulierungsbedarf tief zu halten. Die Wirkung des 
Gesamtprogramms sowie einzelner Massnahmen soll wie in den Vorperioden regelmässig durch 
unabhängige Stellen ev aluiert werden.   14 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 
 Gebäude und erneuerbare Energien in privaten 
Haushalten   
Rund die Hälfte der beheizten Gebäudefläche liegt in privaten Händen. Prioritär sind die Investoren 
(Wohneigentümer, Vermietende) zu nennen , da sie mit ihren Entscheiden massge bend  sind, wie 
ein Haus energetisch ausgerüstet und betrieben wird. Wohneigentümer sind eine breite und grosse 
Zielgruppe, die für die Argumente von EnergieSchweiz empfänglich ist, da ihr Eigenheim einen ho-
hen Stellenwert geniesst. Vermietende sind als Zielgru ppe kleiner und können gleichzeitig auf meh-
rere Gebäude Einfluss nehmen. Sie sind jedoch aufgrund des geringen direkten Nutzens schwieri-
ger für energetische Massnahmen zu gewinnen. Den Mietenden kommt eine sekundäre Rolle zu. 
Sie können vor allem bezüglich  Betriebs - und Nutzerverhalten beeinflusst werden.  
3.1 Ausgangslage   
3.1.1  Energieverbrauch  
Der Gebäudepark besteht insgesamt aus rund 1  800 000 beheizten Gebäuden mit einer Fläche von 
gesamthaft 800 Millionen m2. Davon sind 500 000 Mehrfamilienhäuser (350 Millionen  m2 – wovon 
70 % in Privatbesitz), 1  000 000 Einfamilienhäuser (160 Millionen m2), zudem Verwaltungsgebäude 
und Büros (60 Millionen m2), Geschäftshäuser (40 Millionen m2) sowie Industriebauten und Lager-
hallen (80 Millionen m2). 
Der Gebäudepark verbraucht pro Jahr etwa 100 TWh oder rund 45  Prozent  des Endenergiebedarfs 
der Schweiz. Rund 66 TWh  entfallen auf die Raumwärme , wovon  mehr als 40 Prozent  durch Heizöl 
gedeckt werden , gefolgt von Erdgas mit einem Anteil von 27 Prozent . Holz liefert 11 Prozent, Elekt-
rizität 8 Prozent, Umweltwärme (inklusive Solarthermie) sowie Fernwärme je 6 Prozent . 
In Wohngebäuden  werden  rund 24 Prozent des gesamten Endenergieverbrauchs der Schweiz be-
nötigt (Prognos, INFRAS TEP 2018). Davon wird der weitaus grösste Anteil (etwa s über 80  %) für 
Raumwärme verwendet. Heizöl deckt knapp 45 Prozent, Erdgas rund 25 Prozent, und die erneuer-
baren Energien decken knapp 18 Prozent des Raumwärmebedarfs ab. Der Stromverbrauch für 
Raumwärme, Warmwasser und die Haus -, Lüftungs - und Klimatechn ik beträgt rund 14 Prozent.  
3.1.2  Trends  
Verschiedene Trends werden den zukünftigen Energiebedarf sowie die Energieproduktion der pri-
vaten Haushalte sowohl negativ wie positiv stark beeinflussen.  Nachstehend eine Auswahl, welche 
direkt auf den Energiebedarf der  Gebäude Einfluss hat.   
Trends mit verbrauchs - und CO 2-mindernder  Wirkung   
 Dank g riffigere n Energie - und Umweltvorschriften werden fossile Wärm eerzeuger durch Wär-
meerzeuger mit erneuerbaren Energien ersetzt und Gebäude energetisch saniert.  
 Die vermehrte Digitalisierung der Gebäudetechnik  ermöglicht es , z.B. Gebäude vorausschau-
end wetter - und temperaturabhängig zu betreiben.  Dies k ann aber auch z.B. durch übermäs-
sigen Einsatz von Sensoren und Steuerungen zu einem zusätzlichen Energieeinsatz führen.  15 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
  Die Dek arbonisierung wird zu einer stärkeren Elektrifizierung führen , z.B. verstärkter Einsatz 
von Wärmepumpen , Photovoltaik -Anlagen, Elektro fahrzeugen und el ektrischen Speichern 
(Batterien ). 
 Die zunehmende Wettbewerbsfähigkeit erneuerbarer Energien  und von Energ ieeffizienztech-
nologien  führt dazu, dass sich diese Technologien im Markt durchsetzen.  
 Die Systembetrachtung eines Gebäudes in Verbindung zu seiner Umgebung führt zur optima-
leren Produktion, Nutzung und Speicherung von erneuerbaren Energien und Abwärme in  Ver-
bindung mit den Verbrauchern.   
 Der Bevölkerungszunahme wird mit verdichtetem Bauen entgegnet werden müssen, womit die 
Wohnfläche und damit der Energiebedarf pro Einwohner  gesenkt werden können . 
Trends mit verbrauchs - und CO 2-steigernder Wirkung   
 Höhere Komfortanforderungen der Bewohner (u.a. Klimatisierun g, mehr Geräte, mehr Wohn-
fläche)  und die Bevölkerungszunahme werden den Energiebedarf erhöhen.  
 Höhere Baukosten führen zu Konkurrenz zwischen energetischen Massnahmen und anderen 
Gebäudemassnahmen . 
Trends mit unklarer  Wirkung  
 Der Klimawandel  führt zu einem Druck nach vermehrter Klimatisierung in der Sommerperiode, 
zu kürzeren Winterperioden und in der Folge zu Notwendigkeit neue r städtebauliche r Lösun-
gen ( z.B. vermehrte Begrünung der Innenstädte).  
3.1.3  Potenziale  
Im Themengebiet  Gebäude und erneuerbare Energie in privaten Haushalten gibt es einige Poten-
ziale für Energieeinsparungen:  
 Durch eine Gebäudehüllensanierung kann der Energiebedarf bei bestehenden Gebäuden re-
alistisch  gesehen  durchschnittlich um  rund 50 Prozent reduziert werden.  
 Gleichzeitig kann nahezu jedes Wohngebäude (Ausnahmen vorbehalten) mit erneuerbaren 
Energien betrieben werden  (u.a. Photovoltaik, Umgebungswärme/Wärmepumpen, Holzener-
gie/Pellets , Solarwärme ). Einfamilien - und M ehrfamilienhäuser  können zudem für die Produk-
tion von erneuerbaren Energien genutzt werden, welche sogar den Eigenbedarf übersteigt. 
Aus diesem Grunde ist es wichtig, bei den Gebäuden die Effizienz und die Produktion erneu-
erbarer Energien (inkl. Elektrizit ät für die Elektromobilität) zusammen zu betrachten.  
  16 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 3.1.4  Hemmnisse  
Vor allem folgende Aspekte  wirken  im Gebäudebereich als Hemmnisse oder Wissens - und Hand-
lungsdefizite:  
 Nur knapp die Hälfte der privaten Haushalte kann allein entscheiden. Vor allem mit der Part-
nerin/dem Partner, mit Familienmitgliedern oder mit Nachbarn zusammen wird die Entschei-
dung getroffen1.  
 Eine Investition , z.B. in eine Heizung , die mit erneuerbaren Energien betrieben wird, wird als 
mühsam, schwierig umzusetzen oder aufwändig empfunde n. Viele Konsumenten bleiben aus 
«Bequemlichkeit» bei einem Anbieter, weil man für einen Wechsel Zeit und Energie investieren 
müsste1. 
 Fossile Heizungen sowie Elektrodirektheizungen werden immer noch in den selteneren Fällen 
durch eine Wärmeerzeugung mit e rneuerbare n Energien ersetzt. Vielfach werden nicht einmal 
Alternativen zum bisherigen System geprüft.  
 Teilerneuerungen und Gesamtsanierungen werden oftmals ohne eigentliche Strategie und 
energetisch ungenügend erstellt ( z.B. Wärmebrücken, nicht im Neubau - oder Minergie stan-
dard).  Gebäudesanierungsstrategien werden kaum erstellt.  
 Dachsanierungen oder Fassadensanierungen gegen Süden werden erst selten für den Einsatz 
von Photovoltaik und/oder Solarthermie genutzt.  
 Es fehlen genügend gut ausgebildete Fachleu te, Planer und Architekten.  
 Überforderung der Eigentümer aufgrund der hohen Komplexität resp. vieler anderer zu ent-
scheidender Punkte beim Bau oder der Sanierung eines Gebäudes.  
 Fehlendes Wissen bezüglich den Gebäudestandards Minergie und SNBS (Möglichkeit en, Nut-
zen und Kosten, etc.).  
 Leitungsgebundene Gebäude sind zukünftig vermehrt mit erneuerbaren Energien für Strom 
und Wärme zu versorgen. Die Umwandlung der Netze ist unumgänglich, damit in grossem 
Ausmass erneuerbare Energie genutzt werden kann.  
 Die Woh neigentümer sind sich des Energiebedarfs und effektiven Energieverbrauchs ihres 
Gebäudes zu wenig bewusst.  
 Die Wohneigentümer (insbes. von grösseren Gebäuden) kontrollieren ihre Gebäude im Betrieb 
noch ungenügend und setzen Optimierungen zu wenig um.  
 Woh neigentümer und Mietende betreiben und nutzen ihr Gebäude noch zu wenig energie-
effizient.  
 Die Wohneigentümer wissen kaum, wie sie die selber produzierte n erneuerbare Energien op-
timal nutzen können.  
 Bei grösseren Immobilienentwicklungen (Brache, Quartier -Areal) sind Zielkonflikte mit anderen 
Bereichen im Sinne der nachhaltigen Entwicklung vermehrt zu berücksichtigen.  
  
                                                      
1 Quelle: Verhaltensmessung im Rahmen des Programms «erneuerbar heizen»  17 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 3.1.5  Energie - und klimapolitische Ziele und Massnahmen  
Das Energie - und das CO 2-Gesetz formulieren verschieden klare Zielsetzungen, wel che teilweise 
den Energiebedarf privater Haushalte direkt adressieren.  
Im Themengebiet  der Energieeffizienz ist der durchschnittliche Pro -Kopf-Energieverbrauch gegen-
über dem Jahr 2000 bis 2020 um 16 Prozent und bis 2035 um 43 Prozent zu senk en (EnG, Art. 3, 
Abs. 1). Der durchschnittliche Pro -Kopf-Stromverbrauch ist gegenüber dem Jahr 2000 bis 2020 um 
3 Prozent und bis 2035 um 13 Prozent zu senken (EnG, Art. 3, Abs. 2).  
Im Bereich der erneuerbaren Energien ist bei der Produktion von Elektrizität aus erneuer baren Ener-
gien (Wasserkraft  ausgenommen ) ein Ausbau anzustreben, mit dem die durchschnittliche inländi-
sche Produktion im Jahr 2020 bei mindestens 4  400 GWh und im Jahr 2035 bei mindestens 11  400 
GWh liegt (EnG, Art. 2, Abs. 1).  
Das CO 2-Gesetz definiert im Entwurf zur Totalrevision (befindet sich in der parlamentarischen De-
batte) verschiedene Verminderungsziele. So sollen die Treibhausgasemissionen im Jahr 2030 
höchstens 50 Prozent der Treibhausgasemissionen im Jahr 1990 betragen. Im Durchschnitt der 
Jahre 2 021 bis 2030 müssen die Treibhausgasemissionen um mindestens 35 Prozent gegenüber 
1990 vermindert werden. Dabei soll die Verminderung im Jahr 2030 zu mindestens 60 Prozent mit 
im Inland durchgeführten Massnahmen erfolgen. Im Durchschnitt der Jahre 2021 bis  2030 sollen 
die Treibhausgasemissionen im Inland um mindestens 25 Prozent gegenüber 1990 vermindert wer-
den (Botschaft zur Totalrevision CO 2-Gesetz, Art. 3, Abs. 1).  
Die CO 2-Ziele führen in Ergänzung zum Energieeffizienzziel zu einem grossen Druck, fossile  Brenn - 
und Treibstoffe durch erneuerbare Wärme und Treibstoffe zu substituieren. Bei den Gebäuden folgt 
aus den CO 2-Zielen, dass bis 2050 kein Heizöl, Erdgas oder Strom für den direkten Verbrauch zum 
Heizen eingesetzt werden soll  (Ausnahmen vorbehalten) . Ein Grossteil der Gebäude soll bis 2050 
saniert sein. Erdöl - und Erdgasheizungen sowie ortsfeste elektrische Widerstandsheizungen sollen 
– soweit technisch möglich und wirtschaftlich tragbar – durch erneuerbare Energien ersetzt werde n2. 
Es bestehen bereits eine Reihe von energie - und klimapolitische n Massnahmen , um die entspre-
chenden Zielsetzungen zu erreichen : 
 Materielle Vorschriften zu Gebäuden (Baugesetzgebung, Energiegesetz, Raum - und Energie-
planung)  geben die minimalen energetischen Anforderungen an ein Gebäude vor.  Diese liegen 
vor allem in der Kompetenz der Kantone oder teilweise sogar der Gemeinden. Der Bund be-
schränkt sich auf eine Rahmengesetzgebung mit allfälligen Zielvorgaben.  
 Die CO 2-Abgabe führt dazu, dass erneuerbare Energi en und Energieeffizienztechnologien ge-
genüber fossilen Energien konkurrenzfähiger werden.  
 Die CO 2-Teilzweckbindung dient u.a. zur Finanzierung des Gebäudeprogramms  zur Förderung 
der Energieeffizienz und der vermehrten Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien und von Abwärme . 
Damit werden u.a. Gebäudehüllenmassnahmen, Minergie -Bauten, Wärmepumpen,  Holz- und 
Pellet feuerungen, solare Wärmekollektoren, Fernwärmeprojekte etc. finanziell unterstützt.  
                                                      
2 Quelle: «Gebäudepark 2050 – Vision des BFE», BFE 2018  18 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
  Die Einmalvergütung  sowie die kostendeckende Einspeisevergütung dienen  zur Förderung der 
Stromproduktion aus erneuerbaren Energien.  Dadurch werden u.a. vermehrt Photovoltaikan-
lagen auf Dächern und an Fassaden von Wohngebäuden angebracht.  
 Dank den Bestimmungen in der Luftreinhalteverordnung, welche laufend durch den Bund ins-
beson dere an die EU und den Stand der Technik angepasst wird , gelten bei der Verbrennung 
von Brennstoffen hohe Anforderungen . Dies führt dazu, dass überalterte Wärmeerzeuger er-
setzt werden müssen.  
 Vorschriften im Gerätebereich (welche laufend durch den Bund ins besondere  an die EU ange-
passt werden ), führen dank den relativ kurzen Ersatzzyklen dazu, dass in Gebäuden mittelfris-
tig weitgehend effiziente Geräte im Einsatz sind . 
 Von den w ettbewerbliche n Ausschreibungen zur Förderung von Programme n und Projekten 
für St romeffizienzmassnahmen  profitieren direkt auch Gebäudebesitzer . 
 Im Rahme n der Kompensationsprojekte zur Förderung von Programme n und Projekte n zur 
Treibhausgasreduktion  werden u.a. Projekte im Gebäudebereich unterstützt (z.B. Wärmenetze) . 
 Dank den s teuerli chen Abzüge n für Energiespar - und Umweltschutzmassnahmen  werden In-
vestitionen in entsprechende Massnahmen günstiger . 
3.1.6  Verbleibende Herausforderungen  
Im Rahmen einer Verhaltensmessung des Programm s «erneu erbar heizen» hat sich gezeigt, dass e in 
generelles Bewusstsein für den CO 2-Effekt des Heizens besteht, jedoch wird der eigene Beitrag als 
nicht signifikant eingeschätzt. Dieser Gap lässt sich dadurch erklären, dass die Schweizerinnen und 
Schweizer zu wenig informiert sind und zu unregelmässig informiert we rden. Um eine nachhaltige 
Verhaltensänderung zu bewirken, müssen die Entscheidungsträger die richtigen Informationen, in der 
richtigen Form, zum richtigen Zeitpunkt und am richtigen Ort durch eine Vertrauensperson erhalten3. 
EnergieSchweiz will vor allem i n den «Feldern» tätig werden, bei denen das Programm eine we-
sentliche Rolle einn ehmen und Wirkung erzielen kann  u.a.:  
 Minimierung von Hemmnisse n (vgl. u.a. 3.1.4) , welche den klima - und energiepolitische n Ziel-
setzungen entgegenstehen . 
 Sicherstellung der Aus- und Weiterbildung für genügend Fachkräfte  
 Bereitstellung von neutrale n Informationsmaterialien, Hilfsmittel n und Werkzeuge n 
 Anpassung von Normen, Baustandards und Labels zeitgerecht entsprechend der technischen 
Entwicklung sowie den internationalen N ormen.  
                                                      
3 Quelle: Verhaltensmessung im Rahmen des Programms «erneuerbar heizen»  19 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 3.2 Ziele   
3.2.1  Effizienzziele  
Aufgrund der im Energiegesetz festgelegten Richtwerte, der im CO 2-Gesetz vorau ssichtlich zukünf-
tig definierte n Reduktionsziele und unter Berücksichtigung bestehender sektorspezifische r Strate-
gien4 und der Effizienzpotenziale we rden im Sinne von Orientierungsgrössen bezüglich Gebäuden 
folgende Effizienzziele für die privaten Haushalte definiert:  
 Bis 2030 beträgt der Endenergieverbrauch (Wärme und Elektrizität) des schweizerischen Ge-
bäudeparks 805 TWh anstelle von 100 TWh (Dur chschnitt 2010 –2015).  
 Der mittlere Verbrauch je m2 ist 2030 im Vergleich zu 2010 um 306 Prozent  tiefer. Wird das 
Wachstum der Gebäudeflächen berücksichtigt, ist je m2 Energiebezugsfläche eine noch grös-
sere Anstrengung nötig. So muss der Durchschnitt der Ener giekennzahl über alle Energieträ-
ger auf 100 kWh/m2/Jahr gesenkt werden (im Vergleich zu 145 kWh/m2/Jahr in 2010).  
 Bis 2030 beträgt der Primärenergieverbrauch pro Person 30007 Watt (inklusive Mobilität).  
3.2.2  Produktionsziele  
Die Ziele zur Produktion von Elektrizität aus erneuerbaren Energien leiten sich aus den Vorgaben 
des Energiegesetzes und bezgl. Wärme aus erneuerbaren Energien aus dem CO 2-Gesetz ab. Be-
treffend Ausbauzielen für einzelne Technologien orientiert sich das BFE an den Energieperspekti-
ven8. In der Vision für den Gebäudepark 2050 hat das BFE (2018) Ziele betreffend die Abdeckung  
des Eigenbedarfs und die Stromproduktion aus erneuerbaren Energien für die Elektromobilität defi-
niert. Zudem sollen die Energienetze bis 2050 den Austausch ermögliche n, d.h. Energie zu liefern 
und die Möglichkeit, Überproduktion einzuspeisen.   
Die Ziele betreffend Stromproduktion  lauten:  
1. Die Haushalte erzeugen bis 2035 49 TWh Elektrizität aus erneuerbaren Energien ( etwa 1/3 des 
Richtwerts  aus dem En ergie gesetz ). Für Haushalte eignet sich praktisch nur die Photovoltaik 
als Produktionstechnologie. Somit sind die 4 TWh mittels Photovoltaik zu decken.  
2. Bis 2030 ist der Eigenbedarf zu rund 3010 Prozent in jeder Jahreszeit abgedeckt und zusätzli-
che Energieerzeugung für andere  Anwendungen  sichergestellt . Ein Gebäude, Quartier, Areal 
oder Stadt wird seinen energetischen Bedarf möglichst selbst decken, ohne die Speicherkapa-
zität des Netzes in Anspruch zu nehmen.  
                                                      
4 Zum Beispiel «Gebäudepark 2050 – Vision des BFE», BFE 2018  
5 Abgeleitet aus Zielsetzung GPS 2050 von 55 TWh bis 2050.(lineare Reduktion)  
6 Abgeleitet aus Zielsetzung GPS 2050 von 60% bis 2050.(lineare Reduktion)  
7 Quelle: Leitkonzept «2000 -Watt-Gesellschaft mit Netto Null Treibhausgasemissionen», aktuell in V ernehmlassung, Publi-
kation vorgesehen Ende Q3 2019, Voraussichtliche Träger BFE, BAFU, Städte Zürich, Winterthur, Trägerverein Energie-
stadt, SIA, Minergie, WWF. Zielsetzung ist die Adaption des Endenergieziels der Energiestrategie 2050 näherungsweise 
umger echnet auf Primärenergie für das Jahr 2030.  
8 Quelle Energieperspektiven 2050   
9 Abgeleitet aus Art. 2 EnG Abs.1  
10 Abgeleitet aus  Zielsetzung GPS 2050 von «möglichst grosse Abdeckung» bis 2050.(grobe Schätzung)  20 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 3. Bis 2030 erzeugen Gebäude zu rund 3011 Prozent der Elektrizität für d ie Elektromobilität. Die 
Elektromobilität wird auch lokale Speicherkapazitäten bereitstellen können, mit denen die Ge-
bäude in Wechselwirkung stehen.  
Die Ziele betreffend Wärmenutzung  und -produktion  lauten:  
1. Ab 2030 dürfen beim Wärmeerzeugerersatz nur noch  in sehr gut gedämmten Gebäuden, als 
Spitzenlastkessel sowie in Ausnahmefällen (technische, finanzielle Gründe, Denkmalschutz 
usw.) fossile Kessel eingesetzt werden (vgl. Botschaft zur Totalrevision des CO 2-Gesetzes 
nach 2020). D as heisst  bis 2030 beträgt der Anteil erneuerbarer Energien (u.a. Photovoltaik, 
Umgebungswärme/Wärmepumpen, Holzenergie/Pellets , Solarwärme ) bei neu installierten 
Wärmerzeugern in Neubauten 100  Prozent  und bei Altbauten 8012 Prozent . 
2. Bis 2025 werden die Fernwärmenetze zu über 8013 Prozent  mit Abwärme oder erneuerbaren 
Energien versorgt. Für die Abdeckung des Spitzenbedarfs werden die Fernwärmenetze noch 
auf fossile Anlagen zurückgreifen dürfen.  
3. Das aus dem Netz bezogene Gas soll bis 2035 zu einem möglichst hohen Anteil  aus erneuer-
baren Quellen gedeckt werden (einheimisch und ausländisch).  
3.2.3  Verhalten der verschiedenen Akteure  
 Wohneigentümer  (Einfamilienhaus -, Wohnungs - und Stockwerkeigentümer) sind hinsichtlich 
des optimalen Betriebs und der optimalen Nutzung eines Gebäudes sensibilis iert und bereit, 
eine energetisch optimale Sanierung durchzuführen.  
 Mietende  entscheiden sich vermehrt für ein energieeffizientes Gebäude und machen  den Ver-
mieter auf Gebäudeteile aufmerksam, welche in einem schlechten energetischen Zustand sind 
oder nich t korrekt betrieben werden.  
 Mietende /Vermietende  beeinflussen den Energieverbrauch bei technischen Anlagen und Ge-
räten (z.B. Komfortlüftung, Thermostatventil, Waschmaschinen, Geschirrspüler, Warmwasser-
temperatur etc.) durch entsprechende Einstellungen, War tungen und Nutzung.  
 Vermietende  (Private, Genossenschaften und professionelle Investoren) nehmen ihre poten-
tiell grosse Multiplikationswirkung für eine erfolgreiche Umsetzung der Ziele im Gebäudebe-
reich wahr.  
 Für die anvisierten Themen werden passende Mittler und Multiplikatoren  gewählt , welche 
direkt oder indirekt auf die Zielgruppen einwirken. Eine direkte Informierung läuft beispiels-
weise vom Heizungsinstallateur oder der Gebäudeversicherung an die Eigentümer. Umgekehrt 
wirkt die indirekte Informieru ng über Aus - und Weiterbildungsorganisationen, die Fachleute 
ausbilden, welche dann die Eigentümer beraten.  
                                                      
11 Abgeleitet aus Zielsetzung GPS 2050 von «einen Grossteil» bis 2050.(grobe Schätzung)  
12 Zielsetzungen abgeleitet aus der Botschaft zur Totalrevision des CO 2-Gesetzes nach 2020.  
13 Quelle: GPS 2050  21 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 3.3 Massnahmen   
Die Priorisierung der zukünftigen Stossrichtungen resp. Massnahmen von EnergieSchweiz im  Be-
reich der privaten Haushalte  basiert auf folg enden Überlegungen:  
 Massnahmen im bestehenden Gebäudepark verfügen über ein grosses Potenzial bezüglich 
der Reduktion sowie Optimierung des Energiebedarfs, der Substitution fossiler Energien resp. 
des Einsatzes erneuerbarer Energien.  
 Mit gezielten Richtungsentscheiden können im Infrastrukturbereich (Energienetze, Immobilien-
entwicklungen) grosse Wirkungen im Sinne der nachhaltigen Entwicklung erzielt werden.  
 Technische Anlagen sind korrekt in Betrieb zu nehmen und zu betreiben, damit d ie Planungs-
werte eingehalten und der Betrieb der Anlagen dauerhaft energieeffizient erfolgt.  
 Will man die Zielsetzungen erreichen, werden genügend gut ausgebildete und kompetente 
Fachleute benötigt. Die Aus - und Weiterbildung und die Qualitätssicherung neh men deshalb 
über alle Themen eine zentrale Querschnittsfunktion ein.  
Die Massnahmen erster Priorität  lauten wie folgt:  
 Förderung des Ersatzes fossiler Wärmeerzeuger sowie Elektrodirektheizungen durch erneuer-
bare Energien: z.B. m it Aus - und Weiterbil dung, Beratung, Kommunikationsgrundlagen, tech-
nische Grundlagen  und Massnahmen zur Qualitätssicherung sowie über verschiedene  Kom-
munikationskanäle und Partnerschaften soll EnergieSchweiz dazu beitragen, dass bei jedem 
Ersatz ein erneuerbares Heizsystem mitofferi ert wird.  
 Förderung und Vereinfachung des Einsatzes erneue rbarer  Energien u.a. durch:  
o Grundlagenermittlung und g ezielte Information sverbreitung zu allen Themen, die bei Pla-
nung, Bau und Betrieb von Anlagen zur Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien wichtig sind  (vgl. 
z.B. Kapitel 6.3 und 6.4), in Abstimmung /Zusammenarbeit mit den Branchenverbänden 
von erneuerbaren Energien.  
o Unterstützung der Aktivitäten von  Institutionen und Anlässen, die für Endkunden den Ein-
satz erneuerbarer Energien fördern und vereinfachen . 
o Abbau von Hürden und Vorurteilen und Bewerben v on erneuerbaren Energien durch Stu-
dien, Kampagnen etc. , in Abstimmung/Zusammenarbeit mit den Branchenverbänden von 
erneuerbaren Energien.  
o Unterstützung von Massnahmen zur Verbesserung der Qualität der Anlagen ( z.B. Stär-
kung der Position der Endkunden undqu alitätssteige rnde Massnahmen der Branchen, 
Verbände und sonstiger Ins titutionen wie Fachhochschulen)  
 Förderung des Umbaus des Schweizer Energiesystems (z.B. Stromnetz) hin zu starker de-
zentraler, erneuerbarer  und digitalisierter Energieerzeugung insbesonde re durch:  
o Wissenserwerb durch Studien , Umfragen etc. und Unterstützung entsprechender Akt ivi-
täten anderer Akteure  und Verbreitung dieser Erkenntnisse in der breiten Öffentlichkeit 
sowie bei m Fachpublikum.  
o Verbreitung von Erkenntnissen  
o Unterstützung der Branchenverbände von e rneuerbaren  Energien bei der Mitarbeit an 
Normen und Branchenlösungen bei anderen Verbändern und Gremien (VSE, SIA, etc.)  
o Erstellung von Hilfsmitteln zur Erleichterung der Umsetzung hoheitlicher Massnah men 
und Regelungen  22 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
  Information u nd Beratung der Fachverbände für Gebäudehüllenmassnahmen sowie der Gebäu-
deeigentümer u.a. über energetisch optimale  Gebäudehüllen sanierungslösungen  mit dem bes-
ten Kosten/Nutzen -Verhältnis sowie über den Einsatz von S olaranlagen (Dach und Fassade)  
 Gezielte Information für Gebäude eigentümer, Vermieter und Mietende , damit sie in der Lage 
sind, den energetischen Zustand des Gebäudes richtig zu beurteilen sowie das Gebäude bzw. 
die technischen Anlagen richtig zu betreiben und zu optimieren.  
 Unterstützung der Au s- und Weiterbildung der Fachleute bezüglich z.B. effiziente Materialien, 
innovative Technologien sowie das nachhaltige Bauen ( Planung und Umsetzung der Gebäu-
destandards Minergie und SNBS, GEAK Plus, 2000 -Watt-Areale, energierelevanter SIA -Nor-
men, grauer E nergie, LowTech -Lösungen und Digitalisierung etc. ) in Zusammenarbeit mit den 
Fachverbänden und Kantonen.  
 Unterstützung u.a. von Gemeinden und Energieversorgern bei der Analyse von bestehenden 
Energienetzen, damit diese  bis im Jahr 2050 so angepasst werden können, dass sie  nicht nur 
erneuerbare Energie liefern, sondern auch jedem Produzenten ermöglichen, seine Überpro-
duktion – sei sie thermisch oder elektrisch – einzuspeisen.  
 Unterstützung insbesondere von Analysen bei grösseren Immo bilienentwicklungen (Brache, 
Quartier -Areal , inklusive induzierte Mobilität  und Mobilitätsmassnahmen ) im Sinne der nach-
haltigen Entwicklung und der Ziele der 2000 -Watt -Gesellschaft , um Zielkonflikte mit anderen 
Bereichen im Sinne der nachhaltigen Entwicklu ng zu berücksichtigen.  
Die Massnahmen zweiter Priorität  lauten wie folgt:  
 Verstärkte Information der Eigentümer bezüglich des Nutzen s einer Gebäudesanierungsstra-
tegie resp. der Erstellung eines GEAK Plus  in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Verein GEAK und den 
Kantonen, welche hier im Lead sind.  Das Ziel ist die v ermehrte Anwendung und Praxistaug-
lichkeit eines zentralen und qualitativ hochstehenden Instrumentes (GEAK Plus).  
 Verstärkte Information  der Eigentümer und Miete nden  z.B. bezüglich des  Nutzen s einer Ge-
samtsa nierung anstelle von Teil - und Pinselsanierungen  in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Verein 
Minergie und d en Kantone n (Gebäudeprogramm) .  
 Verstärkte Information der Investoren z.B. bezüglich des  Nutzen s eines Neubaus resp. Ersatz-
neubaus nach Minergie - oder SNBS -Standard  in Zusammenarbeit mit den Vereine n Minergie 
und NNBS  (Netzwerk Nachhaltiges Bauen Schweiz)  sowie den Kantone n (Gebäudeprogramm) .  
 Gezielte Information der Investoren z.B. bezüglich einer gesamtheitlichen und nachhaltigen 
Betrachtung eines Gebäudes in deren Umfeld (Areal, Gemeinde, Region) (Gebäude als Sys-
tem im System) sowie gebäudespezifischen Themen wie  graue Energie, Low Tech, Energie -
Monitoring und Mobilitätsinfrastruktur (u.a. Ladestationen)  in Zusammenarbeit mit den Verei-
nen Minergie und NNBS sowie 2000 -Watt -Areale, der Wirtschaft (u.a. Energieversoger, Ver-
bände, Herstel ler), Hochschulen und Gemeinden.  
 Gezielte Information der Investoren z.B. über den Nutzen, Bestgeräte zu kaufe n resp. alte Ge-
räte zu ersetzen  (z.B. Weissgeräte, Pumpen,  Ventilatoren, Heizungs - und Lüftungssysteme ). 
Zudem sollen sie dazu motiviert werden, die Geräte im Smart -Grid-ready -Standard zu wählen. 
In Zusammenarbeit mit der Branche (z.B. Küchenbauer, Grossverteiler etc.) soll erreicht wer-
den, dass  bei Offertanfrage n immer auch ein Bestgerät angeboten wird. 23 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
  Gezielte Information der Wohneigentümer  z.B. bezüglich der optimalen Eigennutzung der 
selbst produzierten erneuerbaren Energie . Dazu gehört z.B. die Optimierung und/oder der Zu-
sammenschluss zum Eigenverbrauch von Elektrizität. Partner wie Swissolar und EVU sollen 
einbezogen werden.  
 Gezielte Information der Wohneigentümer und Mietende n z.B. bezüglich der energieeffizienten 
Betreibung und Nutzung ihres Gebäude s. Dazu soll mit Verbänden (Eigentümer, Mieter) zu-
sammeng earbeitet werden.  
  24 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 
 Mobilität von Privaten  und Unternehmen   
Jede Schweizerin und jeder Schweizer legen im Jahr im Schnitt knapp 25  000 km zurück, davon 55  
Prozent im Inland und 36 Prozent  mit dem Flugzeug.  Mehr als drei Viertel der Haushalte besitzen 
minde stens ein Auto, in nahezu jedem dritten Haushalt sind zwei oder mehr Personenwagen vor-
handen.  Durchschnittlich 90 Minuten pro Tag sind Menschen in der Schweiz mobil und legen dabei 
im Inla nd knapp 37 km zurück, davon 65 Prozent  im Auto, ca. 24  Prozent  im öffentlichen Verkehr, 
5 Prozent  zu Fuss und 2  Prozent  auf dem Velo. Der Freizeitverkehr ist mit einem Anteil von 44  
Prozent  an der täglich zurückgelegten Distanz der mit Abstand bedeutendste Verkehrszweck, ge-
folgt vom Weg zur Arbeit (24%), dem Einkaufs verkehr (13%) sowie dem Geschäftsverkehr (7%). 
Und der Verkehr wird weiter hin wachsen . Sämtliche Szenarien der Schweizerischen Verkehrsper-
spektiven 2040 zeigen, dass sowohl der Strassen - als auch der Schienenverkehr bis ins Jahr 2040 
stark zunehmen werden.  Die wichtigsten Erkenntnisse  aus dem Referenzszenario sind (Szenario 
ohne staatliche Eingriffe; im Vergleich zu 2010):  
 Im Personenverkehr steigt die Verkehrsleistung um 25 Prozent  von 115 auf 145 Mrd. Perso-
nenkilometer. Der öffentliche Verkehr (ÖV) weist mit +51  Prozent  ein deutlich hö heres Wachs-
tum auf als der MIV mit +18  Prozent . Als Folge erhöht sich der Anteil des ÖV am Modal Split 
bei den Verkehrsleistungen von 19  Prozent  im Jahr 2010 auf 23  Prozent  im Jahr 2040 . 
 Einkau fs- (38 %) und Freizeitwege (32  %) nehmen am stä rksten zu, die Arbeitswege (16  %) 
am geringsten.  
 Im Güterverkehr steigt die Verkehrsleistung um 37 Prozent  (37 Mrd. Tonnenkilometer). Im Ver-
gleich Strasse -Schiene findet eine Verlagerung um 2 Prozentpunkte zur Schiene statt.  
Ferner ist beim Luftverkehrsaufkommen von 2013 bis 2030 mit einer Zunahme um 68 Prozent , von 
14.9 auf 25.1 Mio. Reisen  zu rechnen14. 
Alleine mit Ausbauten wird dieses Verkehrswachstum nicht zu bewältigen sein. Und auch aus ener-
getischer Sicht muss die Effizienz bei der Bewältigung der Mobilität sbedürfnisse  erheblich gesteigert 
werden, um die Ziele der Energie - und Klimapolitik erreichen zu können. Bestehende Mobilitätsformen 
müssen effizienter und neue effiziente Technologien vermehrt genutzt werden. Aber auch die Tren ds 
in den Bereichen Elektrifizierung, Digitalisierung und Sharing werden helfen, die Effizienz zu erhöhen.  
4.1 Ausgangslage   
4.1.1  Energieverbrauch  
Der Anteil des Verkehrs am Energieverbrauch der Schweiz beträgt 2017 36 Prozent (BFE; Schweiz. 
Gesamtenergiestatistik ). Der Verbrauch wird dominiert vom Strassenpersonenverkehr (70  %). Fos-
sile Treibstoffe sind mit Abstand die wichtigsten Energieträger im Verkehr (Anteil von über 9 5 %). 
Jährlich geben Schweizerinnen und Schweizer im Schnitt über 10 Mrd. Franken für Treibst offe aus.  
                                                      
14 Quelle: Entwicklung des Luftverkehrs in der Schweiz bis 2030 – Nachfrageprognose, Intraplan Consult GmbH, Juni 2015  25 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Der Verkehrsanteil an den Schweizer Treibhausgasemissionen ohne den internationalen Luftver-
kehr beträgt 2017 knapp 32  Prozent , drei Viertel davon werden von den Personenwagen verursacht, 
gefolgt von schweren Nutzfahrzeugen (12  %) und Lieferwagen (7 %). 
Pro Jahr werden in der Schweiz rund 300  000 Personenwagen und rund 30  000 leichte Nutzfahr-
zeuge neu immatrikuliert. Der Fahrzeugbestand hat seit dem Jahrtausendwechsel konstant zuge-
nommen und setzt sich im 2018 zusammen aus: 4.6 Mio. Personenwagen, 375 000 leichten Nutz-
fahrzeugen (bis 3.5t) und gut 52  500 schweren Nutzfahrzeugen (über 3.5t).  
4.1.2  Trends  
In den letzten zehn  Jahren kam es zur Stabilisierung des Energieverbrauchs im Verkehrssektor. 
Das Zwischenziel für 2015, die Stabilisierung der CO 2-Emissi onen – ohne internationalem Luftver-
kehr – auf dem Niveau 1990, wurde hingegen verpasst.  
Die Mobilität wird in den kommenden Jahren noch stärker durch die Megatrends Digitalisierung und 
Sharing geprägt werden. Zudem wird die Elektrifizierung der Antriebe weiter voranschreiten.  Dies 
wird sich stark  auf das Mobilitätssystem auswirken . Folgende Trends  sind dabei zu beachten:  
Trends mit verbrauchssteigernder  Wirkung : 
 Kontinuierlicher Anstieg des Fahrzeugbestandes  
 Kontinuierlicher Anstieg der Verkehrsleistung, sowohl auf Strasse und auf Schiene  
 Die Neuwagenflotte wird aufgrund der höheren Kaufkraft der Schweizer Bevölkerung weiterhin 
schwerer und leistungsstärker sein als in den anderen europäischen Ländern  
 Bisher t endenziell r ückläufige Auslastung der Personenwagen , zukünftige Entwicklung unklar 
(grosse Potenziale durch Carpooling/Ridesharing)  
 Überproportionaler Anstieg beim internationalen Flugverkehr  
 Rückgang bei der Velonutzung der Kinder und Jugendlichen  
 Zunehmende Mobilität der über 64 -Jährigen – insbesondere Fahrten mit dem Auto (steigender 
Führerausweisbesitz bei dieser Alter sgruppe ) 
 Freizeitverkehr nimmt weiterhin  zu. 
Trends mit verbrauchsmindernder  Wirkung :  
 Die fortschreitende Digitalisierung ermöglicht eine noch bessere Vernetzung der Mobilitätsträger . 
 Die Einführung des neuen Prüfzyklus WLTP  (Worldwide harmonized Light vehicle Test Proce-
dure) stellt sicher , dass Effizienzsteigerungen zur Einhaltung der gesetzlichen Zielvorgaben auch 
im realen Fahrbetrieb erzielt werden. Weitergehende V orgaben (z.B. RDE -Messungen für CO 2-
Emissionen) und Verschärfungen sowie Ausweitungen im Bereich der CO 2-Emissionsvorschrif-
ten auf weitere Fahrzeugkategorien  führen zu einer markanten Absenkung de s CO 2-Ausstosses . 
 Politischer Druck und gesellschaftliche Diskussionen führen zur aktiven Förderung der Elekt-
romobilität sowie Verkauf - und Fahrverboten  in verschiedenen europäischen Ländern  für kon-
ventionelle Antriebstechnologien. Dies wirkt sich auf das Fahrzeugangebot der Hersteller aus . 
 Zunahme der Anteile al ternativer Antriebe – insbesondere der Elektromobilität , wo das Ange-
bot an Modellen erheblich  zunehmen wird , und die Herstellungskosten der Fahrzeuge und in 
Folge auch deren Preise stark sinken werden . 26 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
  Aufbau der nötigen Infrastruktur für die Elektromobili tät. Förderung des Eigenverbrauchs von 
selbsterzeugtem Strom , um die Belastung der Netze zu verringern . 
 Stärkere Verbreitung von  Assistenzsysteme n, die  zu einem energieeffizienteren Fahrverhalten 
beitragen . 
 Rückgang beim Führerausweisbesitz bei den jungen Erwachsenen bis 2010, seit 2015 wieder 
leichte Erhöhung . 
 Aufkommen neuer Mobilitätsformen wie Carsharing oder Carpooling  und der daraus resultie-
renden effizienteren Nutzung  der Fahrzeuge  und einer Abnahme beim Fahrzeugbesitz . 
 Weitere Abnahme beim Fahrzeugbesitz in urbanen Gebieten  
 Zunahme von Microbility , E-Scooter n im urbanen Bereich und in Verbindung mit dem öffentli-
chen Verkehr  
 Aufkommen neuer Arbeitsformen ( z.B. Home -Office ), die den Pendlerverkehr  reduzieren.  
 Weiterer Ausbau und Optimierung des öffentlichen Verkehrs und der Verlagerung des Güter-
verkehrs  auf die Schiene . 
Trend mit unklarer  Wirkung : 
 Entwicklung hin zu selbstfahrenden Fahrzeugen:  Bei dieser Entwicklung sind die Auswirkun-
gen auf die Mobilität  und auf den Energieverbrauch  noch kaum abschätzbar. Zahlreiche Stu-
dien zeigen, dass n eue Nutzergruppen , die Möglichkeit, unterwegs zu arbeiten sowie  Leerfahr-
ten zu erheblichem Mehrverkehr führen  können . Eine zeitliche Einschätzung in Bezug auf die 
Einführung von vollautomatisierten Fahrzeugen u nd deren Marktdurchdringung ist derzeit  al-
lerdings  schwierig.  
4.1.3  Poten ziale  
Im Verkehrsbereich bestehen erhebliche Effizienzpotenziale. Durch die Wahl energieeffizienter 
Transportmittel und eine intelligentere Steuerung von Mobilitätsketten, durch den Kauf e nergieeffi-
zienter Personenwagen sowie mit einem energieeffizienten Fahrverhalten und der intensiveren Nut-
zung von neuartigen  Assistenzsystemen erscheint eine Verbesserung der Energieeffizienz im Mo-
bilitätsbereich bis 2030 um mindestens 20 Prozent realisier bar. Zusätzliche Potenziale bestehen bei 
Unternehmen sowie der Güterlogistik. Dieses Potenzial kann teilweise durch den Ersatz fossiler 
Treibstoffe insbesondere durch Strom und erneuerbare Treibstoffe realisiert werden.  
Die Poten ziale unterscheiden sich je  nach Massnahmenschwerpunkt deutlich:   
a) Mobilitätsverhalten : Einspar potenzial  bis zu 100 Prozent  (Umstieg vom Auto auf das Velo , 
Ersatz von Flugreisen durch Videokonferenzen ), rasch realisierbar, aber nicht zwingend dau-
erhaft und häufig geringe Akzeptanz bzw. grosse Bedeutung von Routinen.  
b) Kaufverhalten : Energieeffiziente Fahrzeuge und alternative Antriebe  (inkl. Infrastruktur) : Ho-
hes Potenzial  von bis zu 50 Prozent , wegen der hohen Fahrzeuglebensdauer und der geringen 
Erneuerungsrate jedoch erst langfristig voll realisierbar . 
c) Fahrverhalten/e ffizientes Fahren : Reduktions potenzial  ca. 20  Prozent , rasch umsetzbar aber 
nicht zwingend dauerhaft.  Grosse Zielgruppe  von 4.6 Millionen Fahrzeugbesitz ende n, die an-
gesprochen werden können , dadurch grosses Ein sparpotential vorhanden.  27 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 d) Energieeffiziente Mobilität in Unternehmen : Erhebliche Einsparpotenziale bestehen beim 
Pendler -, Geschäfts -, Besucher - und Kundenverkehr . Reduktionspotenziale von mindestens  
20 Prozent lassen sich bei der durch die Unternehmen bee influssbaren Personenmobilität  mit-
tel- und langfristig realisieren.  
e) Energieeffizienz im Güterverkehr und der Logistik : Auch bei den Transportmitteln  und im 
Bereich der Güterlogistik sind verschiedene Effizienzpotenziale vorhanden , u.a. bei der Be-
schaffung und beim Betrieb der Nutzfahrzeuge  und in der Güterfeinverteilung.   
4.1.4  Hemmnisse  
Die Hemmnisse  sind vielfältig . Dazu gehören : 
 Mobilitätskosten haben bei vielen Unternehmen, vor allem im Dienstleistungssektor (ohne 
Transport) eine untergeordnete  Bedeutung, u.a., weil ein wesentlicher Teil der unternehmens-
induzierten Mobilität kosten durch  Pendler und Besucher getragen wird . 
 Fehlanreize  durch Arbei tgeber , Steuerbehörden, Detailhandel, Tourismus , Autobranche/Im-
porteure : Gratisparkplätze, ho he Kilometer -Pauschalen für PW -Fahrten, Flottenrabatte für 
grosse und leistungsfähige Personenwagen, Flugmeilen bleiben bei den Mitarbeitenden etc.  
 Fehlende Anreize z.B. durch Arbeitgeber (Jobtickets, attraktive Veloangebote, kein Home -
Office o.ä.)  
 Schlecht e ÖV-Erschliessung  von Firmenstandorte n 
  Flugreisen sind oft billiger als Zugreisen . 
 Vergleichsweise geringe Bedeutung der Energieeffizienz beim finalen Kaufentscheid  des Fahr-
zeuges  
 Komfortaspekte des Automobils , die insbesondere im ländlichen Raum schwer zu ersetzen sind . 
 «Mach t der Gewohnheit», grosse Rolle von täglichen Routinen  insbesondere im Pendler - und 
Einkaufsverkehr  
 Informationsdefizite bei den Mobilitätsteilnehmenden in sämtlichen Bereichen  
 Treibstoffe sind in den CO 2-Zielvereinbarungen der (grossen) Unternehmen nicht abgedeckt.  
 Noch (zu) wenig kundenfreundliche, multimodale Mobilitätslösungen  
 Häufig wenig velofreundliche Infrastruktur  
 Teilweise geringe (politische) Akzeptanz der Massnahmen  
 Spezifischer Ausbildungsbedarf bei Garagisten und im Fahrzeughandel  
 Viele Leut e sind von ihrer Fahrweise überzeugt und für andere Handlungsweisen schwer er-
reichbar . 
  28 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 4.1.5  Energie - und klimapolitische Ziele  und Massnahmen  
Zur Verbesserung der Energieeffizienz in der Mobilität sind v.a. CO 2-Ziele wichtig. Diese beziehen 
sich auf die Energieeffizienz der Transportmittel, d.h. auf die CO 2-Ziele für Fahrzeugflotten. Die 
wichtigsten hoheitlichen Instrumente zur Erreichung der Ziele sind:  
 CO 2-Emissionsvorschriften für Personenwagen und leichte Nutzfahrzeuge:  Die 2012 ein-
geführten CO 2-Emissionsvorschriften für neue Personenwagen und leicht e Nutzfahrzeuge sol-
len in Anlehnung an die EU weiter verschärft werden. Diese richten sich primär an die Import-
eure und Händler . 
 CO 2-Emissionsvorschriften und Reduktionsziele für schwere Nutzfahrzeuge : Aktuell dis-
kutieren die eidgenössischen Räte im Rahmen der Totalrevision des CO 2-Gesetzes CO 2-Flot-
tenzielwerte für schwere Nutzfahrzeuge in Anlehnung an die Vorgaben der EU.  
 Energieetikette  und Deklarationsforschriften  für Personenwagen  und leichte Nutzfahr-
zeuge : Die Vorschriften zu den Angaben in der Werbung , Kommunikationskanälen und an Ver-
kaufspunkte n stellen eine transparente Information der Autokäuferinnen und Autokäufer  über 
Energieeffizienz, Verbrauch und CO 2-Emissionen von Fahrze ugen  sicher. Dadurch werden die 
Ziele einer  Reduktion der CO 2-Emissionen und Steigerung der Energieeffizienz unterstützt .  
Weitere hoheitliche Instrumente zur Steigerung der Energieeffizienz im Mobilitätsbereich  sind:  
 Die Schweiz verfügt über ein im intern ationalen Vergleich attraktives ÖV -Angebot , das von 
der öffentlichen Hand gefördert wird.  
 Schwerverkehrsabgabe:  Abgabe des Schwerverkehrs zur Deckung der Kosten zulasten der 
Allgemeinheit und zur Verlagerung des Güterverkehrs auf die Bahn (Schwerverkehrsab gabe-
gesetz, SVAG) . 
 Es bestehen steuerliche Anreize  für Elektro - und für Gasfahrzeuge (insbesondere die teil-
weise bis vollständige Befreiung von Treibstoffzollabgaben o.ä.).  
 Ebenfalls im Bereich der Güterlogistik  fallen die Zufahrtsbeschränkungen in Innenstadtzonen 
für die Anlieferung etc.  
 Chauffeur -Zulassungs -Verordnung CZV: Fahrer schwerer Nutzfahrzeuge müssen alle 5 
Jahre Weiterbildungskurse nachweisen. Dabei können sie auch EcoDrive -Kurse besuchen . 
 Neulenkera usbildung . EcoDrive ist seit 2005 Teil der Neulenkerausbildung . 2018 wurde  die 
obligatorische Weiterbildung von zwei auf einen  Tag gekürzt . 
 Der Bund erhält neu Kompetenzen zur Koordination und Förderung des Veloverkehrs : 
Die Veloinfrastruktur dürfte mittel - bis längerfristig sicherer und durchgängiger und somit für 
die Nutzenden attraktiver werden.  
4.1.6  Verbleibende Herausforderungen  
Die CO 2-Emissionsvorschriften für Personenwagen, leichte Nutzfahrzeuge und zukünftig vielleicht 
auch schwere Nutzfahrzeuge richten  sich primär an die Hersteller, Importeure und Händler der Fahr-
zeuge. EnergieSchweiz kann mit gezielten Information s- und Kommunikationsm assnahmen auf der 
Nachfrageseite dazu beitragen, dass neue Technologien rascher Verbreitung finden und vermehrt 
effizientere Fahrzeuge gekauft werden und die hoheitlichen Ziele erreicht werden. Zudem sollen mit 
marktorientierten Projekten gezielt die notwendigen Rahmenbedingungen geschaffen werden, da-
mit sich  neue Technologien und Mobilitätsformen im Alltag rascher etablieren können.  29 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Es bestehen grosse Poten ziale und es existieren innovative Lösungen für eine effizientere Mobilität . 
Diese sind teilweise noch zu wenig bekannt, nicht marktgerecht , für den Handel  zu wenig attraktiv  
oder für die Nutzenden nicht komfortabel genug. Zudem erfordern sie oft Anpassungen  von Ge-
wohnheiten .  
Durch ganzheitliche Mobilitätskonzepte, neue Mobilitätsformen und multimodale Mobilitätsdienst-
leistungen kann die Mobilität insgesamt  effizienter gestaltet werden. Hierzu ist eine Vernetzung von 
Akteuren, die Schaffung der nötigen Plattformen und der richtigen Rahmenbedingungen zentral. 
Zudem müssen auch die verschiedenen Bundesämter ihre Aktivitäten im Themengebiet  Mobilität 
noch besser aufeinander abstimmen und Herausforderungen gemeinsam angehen.   
4.2 Ziele 
Die Zielvorgaben des Energiegesetzes (Reduktion Energieverbrauch pro Person und Jahr gegen-
über dem Stand im Jahr 2000 bis zum Jahr 2035 um 43 Prozent, siehe Kapitel 2.1) sind ohne we-
sentliche Beitr äge im Mobilität sbereich  nicht erreichbar.  Freiwillige  Massnahmen  verbunden mit ge-
setzlichen Vorschriften  können im Bereich  Mobilität weitreichende Wirkung erzielen . Entsprechend 
legte der Bundesrat in der Botschaft zum ersten Massnahmenpaket der Energiestrategie 205015 für 
die Mobilität folgende Ziele fest: 
 Die Energieeffizienz von neuen Personenwagen, Lieferwagen und leichten  Sattelschleppern 
soll entsprechend dem Stand der Technik kontinuierlich verbessert werden  
 Der Energieverbrauch und die CO2 -Emissionen im Verkehrsbereich werden gegenüber der 
bisherigen Energiepolitik (Szenario «Weiter wie bisher») massgeblich reduziert.  
 Zur Erreichung dieser Ziele sind die folgenden Massnahmen vorgesehen:  
 Verschärfung beziehungsweise Einführung von CO2-Emissionsvorschriften  
 Förderung alternativer Antriebe und Treibstoffe16 
 Unterstützende Massnahmen , die unter dem Dach von EnergieSchweiz umg esetzt  werden.  
EnergieSchweiz strebt an, einen wesentlichen Beitrag zum Erreichen diese r Ziele zu leisten . Dies 
soll durch einen attraktiven Massnahmenmix bei den Zielgruppen Private (als Nutzende) und Unter-
nehmen (als Nutzende, Anbieter und Mittler) erreicht werden.  
Die folgenden Ziele erfordern einen Massnahmenmix, der s ich einerseits an die Beschaffenden und 
die Nutzenden  und andererseits an die Anbietenden  und an Mittler richtet.  
  
                                                      
15 Botschaft zum ersten Massnahmenpaket der Energiestrategie 2050 und zur Volksinitiative «Für den geordneten Auss tieg 
aus der Atomenergie (Atomausstiegsinitiative)» vom 4. September 2013.  
16 u.a. Roadmap Elektromobilität 2022 (siehe www.roadmap2022.ch ).  30 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Zur Zielerreichung sollen  zwei auf den Neuwagenverkauf bezogene Ziele beitragen:  
 Anteil der Elektrofahrzeuge  (BEV und PHEV) bei den Neuwagen beträgt bis 2030 38 Prozent17.  
 Durchschnittliche r CO 2-Ausstoss von neuen Personenwagen liegt im Jahr 2030 um 37.5  Pro-
zent tiefer als im Jahr 2021.18  
Beim Mobilitäts - und Fahrv erhalten sollen folgende  Ziele  erreicht werden : 
 Beim  Personenverkehr verschiebt sich der Modalsplit19 zu Gunsten energieeffizienter Trans-
portmittel und Transportlösungen (inkl. Carpooling) . 
 Anstieg des Besetzungsgrad s der Personenwagen. Zum Anstieg trägt insbesondere der Pend-
lerverkehr bei . 
 Bedeutender Anstieg bei der  Nutzung von Sharing -Angeboten . 
 Der Anteil des Veloverkehrs beim Modalsplit nimmt zu, insbesondere bei Kurzstrecken bis 5 
km steigt  der Veloanteil im Modalsplit  an. 
 Die Energieeffizienzp otenzi ale der Assistenzsysteme sind bekannt und werden genutzt. Die im 
2030 aktiven Autolenker/innen kennen mehrere Einspar potenzial e und setzen mindestens eine 
Massnahme selber um . 
Ziele für die Zielgruppe Unternehmen :  
 Bei der unternehmensinduzierten Mobilität  steigt die Energieeffizienz  besonder s bei der Per-
sonen mobilität . Dabei wird auf den Pendlerverkehr, den Geschäftsverkehr und den Kunden - 
und Besucherverkehr  fokussiert . Diese Stossrichtung umfasst auch die Beschaffung, den Ein-
satz und den Unterhalt der Fahrzeugflotte . 
 Im Güterverkehr und der Logistik  steigt die Energieeffizienz.  Dabei wird auf die Flottenpolitik 
bei leichten und schweren Nutzfahrzeugen, bei der Verkehrsträgerwahl in der Güterlogistik 
sowie bei der energieeffizienten Citylogistik (eingebettet in Smart City -Konzepte)  fokussiert.  
4.3 Massnahmen  
Zur Unterstützung einer energieeffizienten, ressourcen - und klimaschonenden Mobilität verfolgt 
EnergieSchweiz zukünftig im Themengebiet  Mobilität fünf Hauptstossrichtungen. Drei richten sich 
an Pr ivate und z wei Hauptstossrichtungen sprechen  explizit Unternehmen  an. Die bisherigen Mas-
snahmenschwerpunkte von EnergieSchweiz in der Mobilität waren primär auf die Personenmobilität 
ausgerichtet . Diese wird auch weiterhin eine wichtige Rolle spielen. Nebe n der Personenmobilität 
soll neu zusätzlich die Energieeffizienz im Güterverkehr und in der Logistik als Schwerpunkt adres-
siert, aufgebaut und weiterentwickelt  werden.  
                                                      
17 Quelle: Grundlagendaten aus «Die Energieperspektiven für die Schweiz bi s 2050», Prognos, 12.09.2012  
18 In Anlehnung an die bereits beschlossene Regulierung in der Europäischen Union. In der Schweiz ist die Übernahme der 
Regulierung Gegenstand der laufenden Totalrevision des CO 2-Gesetzes.  
19 Der Modalsplit bezeichnet den Anteil  der Verkehrsträger, wie z.B. Auto, Schienenverkehr, öffentlicher Strassenverkehr 
sowie Fuss - und Veloverkehr, an den zurückgelegten Distanzen.  31 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 4.3.1  Massnahmen Personenmobilität  von Privaten  
Die Massnahmen erster Priorität  im Bereich Per sonenmobilität werden in folgende n Schwerpunk-
ten umgesetzt:  
Mobilitätsverhalten: Wahl von energieeffizienten Transportmitteln und Mobilitätslösungen  
Das grösste Einsparpotenzial besteht bei der Transportmittelwahl bzw. bei der optimalen , energie-
effizienten  Verknüpfung und  Kombination verschiedener Verkehrsmittel und -träger sowie  Mobili-
tätslösungen. Das Ein sparpotenzial  beträgt bis zu 100 Prozent , z.B. bei m Umsteigen  vom Auto auf 
das Velo.  Bei anderen Massnahmen ist es geringer, z.B. mind.  50 Prozent  beim Carpooling (Mitfah-
ren). Das Potenzial  ist zum Teil  rasch, aber nicht zwingend dauerhaft , realisierbar (z.B. abhängig 
von der Witterung) . Zudem  besteht für die Lösungen häufig eine eher geringe Akzeptanz , da Ver-
haltensänderungen nötig sind bzw. R outinen  durchbrochen werden müssen, die für die Menschen 
oft eine grosse Bedeutung haben . Zudem setzen Anpas sungen beim Mobilitätsverhalten  oft eine 
Kombination mehrerer Massnahmen voraus, insb esondere  die geschickte  Kombination von Push - 
(Parkplatzmanagement ) und Pull-Massnah men (attraktives ÖV -Angebot) .  
Bei der Umsetzung und Förderung werden Massnahmen (v.a. neue , innovative  Lösungen , verbes-
serte Informations - und Beratungs angebote  sowie Sensibilisierungsmassnahmen ) in folgende n 
Massnahmenschwerpunkte n im Mittelp unkt stehen:  
 Erleichterung der multimodalen Mobilität bzw. Attraktivitätssteigerung von multimodalen, ener-
gieeffizienten Mobilitätsketten zur intelligente n Kombination von A ktivverkehr (Velo, Fussver-
kehr) sowie  ÖV- und MIV -Angeboten   
 Förderungen der kollaborativen Mobilität (Sharing, Pooling) bzw. Teilen von Fahrzeugen und 
Fahrten   
 Förderung des Aktivverkehrs  (Fuss - und Veloverkehr ), insbesondere der Velonutzung  durch 
die Unterstützung attraktiver Angebote (Aus -/Weiterbildung, Animationsangebote) und mittels 
Informations - und Kommunikationskampagnen  
 Verkehrsreduktion und Verkehrs vermeidung , beispielsweise durch virtuelle Mobilität , Cowor-
king, mobiles Arbeiten bzw . Homeoffice  
Kaufverhalten: Unterstützung des Kaufentscheids hin zu energieeffizienten Fahrzeugen und 
Modellen mit alternative n Antriebe n (inkl.  Infrastruktur ) 
Beim Kauf eines neuen Personenwagens oder leichten Nutzfahrzeugs beträgt das Effizienz potenzial  
bis zu 50  Prozent . Das Potenzial  ist wegen der hohen Fahrzeuglebensdauer und der geringen Erneu-
erungsrate der Fahrzeugflotte jedoch eher längerfristig voll realisierbar. Im Bereich Kaufverhalten  be-
stehen auf gesetzlicher Ebene mit den CO 2-Emissionsvorschriften, der Energieetikette  und den CO 2-
Kompensationsmassnahmen  hoheitliche Instrumente. Die Fahrzeugbr anche hat  dadurch  bereits  ein 
Interesse an der Steigerung der Energieeffizienz von neuen Fahrzeugen.  Zudem w erden zusammen 
mit der Branch e und den Akteuren der öffentlichen Hand unterstützende Massnahmen lanciert (Bei-
spiel Roadmap Elektromobilität 2022) , die insbesondere auf optimale Rahmenbedingungen für ener-
gieeffiziente Antriebstechnologien wie beispielsweise die Elektromobilität fokussi eren.  
  32 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Bei der Umsetzung bzw. Förderungsmassnahmen stehen folgende Stossrichtungen im Mitte lpunkt:   
 Sensibilisierung, Kommunikation  und Information  von Privatpersonen, damit der Kaufentscheid 
zugunsten eines energieeffizienten Fahrzeug s ausfällt  (neue Personenwagen und leichte 
Nutzfahrzeuge)  und der Betrieb dieser Fahrzeuge durch erneuerbare Energieträger erfolgt . 
 Förderung der Energieeffizienz über alle Antriebstechnologien  hinweg  durch Informations - und 
Sensibilisierungsmassnahmen sowie der Aus - und Weiterbildung des Garagen - und Automo-
bilgewerbes.  
 Förderung alternativer , energieeffizeinter und klimaschonender  Antriebe inkl. Treibstoffe durch 
Informations - und Beratungsangebote sowie die Schaffung förderlicher Rahmenbedingungen 
(insbesondere für  die (Lade -)Infrastruktur)  sowie Unterstützung bei der Koordination der dabei 
involvierten Stakeholder der Privatwirtschaft und der öffentliche n Hand  
In zweiter Priorität  werden Massnahmen in folgendem Schwerpunkt umgesetzt:  
Fahrverhalten /effizientes Fahre n: Energieeffizienter Einsatz der Fahrzeuge  
Fahrzeuglenkende können mit ihrem Fahrstil , der optimalen Ausrüstung und dem richtigen Fahr-
zeugunterhalt den Treibstoffverbrauch um rund 20  Prozent  reduzie ren oder im Fall eines Elek tro-
fahrzeuges ihre Reichweite markant erhöhen . Dies ist mit einfachen Informations -, Sensibilisie-
rungs - sowie Aus - und Weiterbildungsm assnahmen rasch umsetzbar und stösst auf eine breite  Ak-
zeptanz. Da sich diese Massnahme an alle Fahrzeug fahrende  richtet, kann eine grosse Zielgruppe 
angesprochen werden. Die Wirkungen sind aber erst dann dauerhaft, wenn die Massnahmen auch 
zur Gewohnheit werden.  
Es gibt Massnahmen auf gesetzlicher Ebene (Chauffeurzulassungsverordnung CZV, Zweiphasen-
ausbildung für Neulenkende), die das energieeffiziente F ahrverhalten unterstützen. Das grösste Po-
tenzial  besteht insgesamt daher bei erfahrenen Lenkern , die den Fahrausweis vor mehr als 10 Jah-
ren erlangt haben . 
Mit der technologischen Entwicklung nimmt die Anzahl Assistenzsysteme  zu. Diese  unterstützen  
die Lenk ende n beim Fahren und tragen teilweise zur Verbrauchsreduktion bei . Gleichzeitig wird d as 
Potenzial  von EcoDrive -Ausbildungen reduzier t. Dennoch besteht nach wie vo r ein erhebliches Ein-
sparpotenzial  von rund 20 %.  
Bei der Umsetzung und Förderung werden folgende Stossrichtungen im Mittelpunkt stehen:  
 Durchführung von Informations - und Sensibilisierungsk ampagnen  und anderen Kommunikati-
onsa ktionen  sowie  Ausbildungen zur Verbreitung der Eco -Drive -Fahrweise  sowie eines effi-
zienten Fahrzeugunterhalts  
 Bereitste llung von Hilfsmittel n zur Unterstützung der Ausbildenden (Fahrschulen, Experten etc.)  
 Informations -, Sensibilisierungs - sowie Aus - und Weiterbildungsmassnahmen zur Verbesse-
rung des Fahrzeugunterhalt s und der Ausrüstung der Fahrzeuge  
 Sensibilisierung und Information des Garagen - und Automobil gewerbes  
Das Einspar potenzial  wird mit der  zunehmende n Verbreitung von Assistenzsystemen und teilauto-
matisierter Fahrzeuge abnehmen . Entsprechend wird auch die Priorität dieses Massnahmen-
schwerpunktes zwischen 2021  und 30 tendenziell abnehmen.  33 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 4.3.2  Massnahmen Personen - und Gütermobilität im Unternehmen  
Massnahmen in folgenden Schwerpunkten werden in erster Priorität  umgesetzt:  
Energieeffiziente Mobilität in Unternehmen   
Unternehmen verfügen in der von ihnen induzierten Mobilität über ein hohes Potenzial zur Steige-
rung der Energieeffizienz . Dieses wird  in absehbarer Zukunft weder durch sich ändernde wirtschaft-
liche Rahmenbedingungen noch durch regulatorische Instrumente abgedeckt . Dazu zählt i nsbeson-
dere der Einfluss der Unternehmen auf das Mobilitätsverhalten der Mitarbeitenden , sowohl  beim 
Geschäftsverkehr als auch beim Pendlerverkehr.  Zudem kann durch die Beschaffung von Flotten-
fahrzeugen mit alternativen Antrieben die Energieeffizienz erhöht und den Mitarbeitenden die nötige 
Infrastruktur zur Verfügung gestellt werden . Mit Mobilitätsmanagement, insbesondere bei einem gut 
abgestimmten Instrumentenmix bestehend aus Push - und Pull -Massnahmen, kann der unterneh-
mens induzierte  Energieverbrauch der  Mobilität um 10 Prozent und mehr reduziert werden . Konkret 
sollen Aktivitäten in den folgenden von Unternehmen beeinflussbaren Verkehrszwecken aufg ebaut 
bzw. weiterentwickelt werden:  
 Pendlerverkehr : Unternehmen haben einen erheblichen Einfluss auf die Verkehrsmittelwahl, 
die ÖV-Nutzung und die Fahrzeugauslastung beim Pendlerverkehr ihrer Mitarbeitenden. An-
knüpfungspunkte sind der Einbezug des Aktivv erkehrs (v.a. Velo), die Parkplatzbewirtschaf-
tung und -bepreisung, die Anbindung an den öffentlichen Verkehr und Vergünstigungen bei 
Abonnementen, die Förderung von Angeboten im Bereich Carsharing und Carpooling sowie 
Softmassnahmen wi e Flexib ilisierung de r Arbeitszeiten, das Ermöglichen von Homeoffice so-
wie die Beteiligung an wohnortnahen Coworking -Spaces. Auch die Bereitstellung von Ladein-
frastruktur für E -Fahrzeuge auf Mitarbeiter -, Kunden - und Besucherparkplätzen kann Anreize 
für energieeffiziente Fahrz euge setzen.  
 Geschäftsverkehr: Unternehmen haben einen grossen Einfluss, den Geschäftsverkehr (z.B. 
durch Monteure, Verkaufspersonal etc.) energieeffizient zu betreiben. Dies betrifft u.a. die effi-
ziente Flottenpolitik der eigenen Fahrzeugflotte (inkl. de r Beschaffung der Fahrzeuge), einen 
effizienten Betrieb der Flotte, die Nutzung innovativer Kommunikationsmittel zum Ersatz von 
Dienst - und Geschäftsreisen und die Nutzung von multimodalen Mobilitätsdienstleistungen.  
 Kunden - und Besucherverkehr : Unternehmen können hier durch zahlreiche eigene Aktivitä-
ten wie Parkplatzbewirtschaftung, ÖV-Anbindung, Lieferservices etc. zu einer Reduktion des 
Energie - und Platzverbrauchs beitragen. Hierbei spielen Standortentscheide , insbesondere bei 
publikumsinten siven Einrichtungen , bereits in der Planungsphase eine zentrale Rolle für eine 
möglichst en ergieeffiziente Erschliessung.  
EnergieSchweiz unterstützt die Unternehmen in ihren Entscheiden im Bereich Mobilität durch  fol-
gende Massnahmen : 
 Information und Kommu nikation (Kampagnen, Analyseinstrumente,  Auszeichnungen,  Werk-
zeugkoffer) sowie Bereitstellen  von Entscheid ungs grundlagen  für Unternehmen  
 Instruktion , Information sowie Aus - und Weiterbildung  von Personen mit mobilitätsrelevanten 
Funktionen (Flottenverantwo rtliche, Facility -Manager, HR/Dienstreisereglement)  
 Entwicklung und Unterstützung von innovativen Projekten  und attraktiven Angeboten   
 Beratung und unabhängige Qualitätssicherung . 34 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Energieeffizienz im Güterverkehr und der Logistik  
Unternehmen verfügen über ein hohes Potenzial zur Steigerung der Energieeffizienz im Güterver-
kehr und der Logistik, welches in absehbarer Zukunft weder durch sich ändernde wirtschaftliche 
Rahmenbedingungen noch regulatorische Instrumente ausreichend abgedeckt wird.  Aktivitäten  von 
EnergieSchweiz fokussier en vor allem auf folgende Elemente:  
 Flottenpolitik bei leichten und schweren Nutzfahrzeugen : gezielte Berücksichtigung effizi-
enter Fahrzeuge und Antriebe, Unterstützung und Koordination für die Bereitstellung der ent-
sprechenden  Lade - und Tankstelleninfrastruktur  
 Verkehrsträgerwahl in der Güterlogistik : entscheidenden Einfluss hat hier der Einbezug des 
Schienengüterverkehrs sowie des kombinierten Verkehrs in die Logistik (kein direkter Schwer-
punkt von EnergieSchweiz , Federführung  bei der Verlagerungspolitik hat  das Bundesamt für 
Verkehr BAV ) 
 Energieeffiziente Logistik und Citylogistik eingebettet z.B. in Smart City Konzepte: durch 
den Einsatz von intelligenten Logistikkonzepten insbesondere in der Feinverteilung durch den 
Einbezug  moderner Pooling -Konzepte, den Einsatz von E -Cargo -Bikes und weiteren innovati-
ven Fahrzeugkonzepten lassen sich erhebliche Effizienzpotenziale bei der zunehmend an Be-
deutung gewinnenden Belieferung von Endkonsumenten realisieren.  
Für EnergieSchweiz  stellt dies ein neue s Themenfeld dar, das bisher erst wenig  bearbeitet wurde 
und daher in einem ersten Schritt vertieft analysiert wird mit dem Ziel, P rioritäten zu setzen . An-
schliessend  sind folgende Massnahmen vorgesehen:  
 EnergieSchweiz informiert in Zusamme narbeit mit Partnern die Unternehmen mittels Kampag-
nen und zielführenden  Informationsinstrumente n in ihren Entscheiden im Bereich Güter -Mobi-
lität. Zudem unterstützt EnergieSchweiz die Wirtschaft sakteure  bei der Entwicklung von ziel-
führenden Analyseinstrumenten . 
 Entwicklung  und Unterstützung  von innovativen Projekten  und Lösungen  
 Vermittlung von Expertise , Beratung , Aus - und Weiterbildungsangeboten  sowie  unabhängige 
Qualitätssicherung . 
Bei den unternehmensfokussierten Massnahmenschwerpunkten k ommt der Einbettung dieser Akti-
vitäten in die weiteren unternehmensorientierten Kanäle der anderen Schwerpunkte von Energie-
Schweiz besondere Bedeutung zu.  
  35 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 4.3.3  Massnahmen zur Förderung von Innovationen  
Massnahmen in diesem Bereich werden in erster Priorität  umgesetzt:  
Der Mobilitätsbereich steht vor grossen Veränderungen  und Herausforderungen . Der Anstoss und 
die Akquisition von neuen Ideen und die Unterstützung innovativer Projekte im Mobilitätsbereich 
wird auch für EnergieSchweiz eine zentrale Querschnittsaufgabe darstellen. Dies kann einerseits 
durch neue Partnerschaften mit Start -ups und innovativen Marktakteuren geschehen  wie auch durch  
Initiierung von neuen Ideen in definierten Schwerpunktfeldern. Diese Ideen können anschliessend 
durch Markt akteure mit der Unterstützung durch EnergieSchweiz (finanziell, kommunikativ oder in-
haltlich) weiterentwickelt , zur Marktreife gebracht und gezielt verbreitet werden. Mit folgende n Ele-
mente n sollen  innovative Projekte  gezielt  gefördert werden : 
 Betrieb  und Weiterentwicklung  einer Anlauf - und Koordinations stelle, die in Abstimmung 
mit anderen Bundesstellen innovative Projekte ämterübergreifend  fördern  kann.  Die gute  
und gezielte  Koordination und Abstimmung der jeweils betroffenen Ämter verbessert  die Nut-
zung der vorhandene n Potenzial e. Die Anlaufstelle  stellt als Wissensplattform den Marktakteu-
ren Informationen zur Verfügung und fördert den Austausch unter den Akteuren. Innovative 
Projekte werden finanziell sowie mit Fachwissen unterstützt. Durch das Fest legen von Mass-
nahmen -Schwerpunkten können Fokusthemen bewusst priorisiert und gefördert werden. Zu-
dem wird die Ab stimmung  zu Förderinstrumenten mit Fokus Technologie sichergestellt . 
 Unterstützung von mehrjährigen Feldexperimenten  (Mobility Labs) zur Förderung von inno-
vativen Mobilitätsmassnahmen für definierte Zielgruppen bzw. in konkreten Aktionsfeldern. 
Durch die mehrjährige Unterstützung von EnergieSchweiz können neue Wege ausserhalb be-
stehender Rahmen und Prozesse modellhaft beschritten und innovative Ansätze getestet so-
wie deren Wirkung gemessen werden . Best Practices dienen anschliessend als Basis für Ak-
tivitäten weiterer Marktakteure.  
4.3.4  Synergien mit Aktivitäten und Massnahmen weiterer Handlungsfelder und Schwer-
punkte  von Ener gieSchweiz  
Die Förderung einer energieeffizienten Mobilität weis t erhebliche Synergien zu Massnahmen weite-
rer zentraler Handlungsfelder wie de n Gebäude n, den Anlagen und Prozesse n in Industrie und 
Dienstleistungen , wie auch zu verschiedenen Querschnittsthe men, insbesondere Städte, Gemeinde 
und Regionen  auf.  
Gemeinde, Städte und Regionen sind für die lokale Planung sowie die Verkehrsinfrastruktur und 
das Verkehrsangebot verantwortlich und spielen eine wichtige Rolle als Multiplikatoren und Mittler 
von mobil itätsrelevanten Effizienzmassnahmen. Eine aktive Zusammenarbeit mit diesen Stakehol-
dern ist eine wichtige Chance für breit vernetzte und abgestützte Effizienzmassnahmen.  
  36 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 
 Anlagen und Prozesse in Industrie und Dienst-
leistungen   
Das zentrale Handlungsfeld «Anlagen und Prozesse in Industrie und Dienstleistungen» deckt dieje-
nigen Technologien und Anwendungen ab, die für Unternehmen spezifisch sind und sich somit auch 
klar von denjenigen der privaten Haushalte unterscheiden. Konkret sind das thermische und elekt-
romechanische Prozesse, Anlagen und Geräte (inklusive IKT, Kälte und Beleuchtung), wie sie etwa 
in der Produktion eingesetzt werden oder nur in der Infrastruktur von Unternehmen anzutreffen sind. 
Nicht Teil des zentralen Handlu ngsfelds sind die Unternehmensmobilität und der Gebäudebereich 
sowie die Nutzung und Produktion von erneuerbaren Energien, wie sie in dieser Form nur direkt in 
Unternehmen möglich sind, etwa mit Hochtemperaturwärmepumpen, welche die interne Prozess-
abwärme nutzen, oder durch den Einsatz von Biogas und Energieholz. Landwirtschaftsbetriebe wer-
den ebenfalls berücksichtigt. Diese Aspekte werden im Kapitel 4 «Mobilität von Pr ivaten und Unter-
nehmen» und im Kapitel 6.1 «Gebäude und erneuerbare Energie in Industrie und Dienstleistungen» 
behandelt. Die Marktbearbeitung bzw. die Umsetzung der en tsprechenden Massnahmen für Indust-
rie und Dienstleistungen soll jedoch koordiniert und möglichst alle Aspekte umfassend erfolgen.  
In der Regel ist es zielführender, bestimmte Unternehmen oder Branchen über Anlagen und Pro-
zesse hinaus gleichzeitig auch zu Gebäuden, erneuerbaren Energien und Mobilität zu informieren 
und zu beraten. Das insbesondere, weil dadurch aus einem systemischen Ansatz optimale Lösun-
gen gefunden werden können . Dies bedeutet aber nicht, dass nicht auch Massnahmen umgesetzt 
werden, die s pezifisch auf Anlagen und Prozesse fokussieren.  
Infrastrukturbetriebe der öffentlichen Hand und Energieversorgungsunternehmen als Produzenten 
erneuerbarer Energien schliesslich sind nicht Teil dieses Handlungsfelds ( vgl. dafür Kapitel 6.3). 
5.1 Ausgangslage   
5.1.1  Energieverbrauch  
Rund 38 Prozent der in der Schweiz verbrauchten Energie wird in den Sektoren Industrie, Dienst-
leistungen und Landwirtschaft eingesetzt (Verwendungszweck statistik BFE 2017, S. 38 ). Dies ent-
spricht rund 81 TWh , dies ohne Energieverbrauch der Mobilität der Unternehmen (vgl. zur Mobilität 
Kapitel 4.1). Unternehmen verbrauchen viel Elektrizität, also eine besonders hochwertige Energie-
form: Über 60 Prozent des Stroms in der Schweiz wird von Unternehmen verbraucht (2017 rund 36 
TWh ( 128 PJ )). Der grösste Teil des Verbrauchs fällt bei den «Anlagen und Prozesse n in Industrie 
und Dienstleistungen» an: Die entsprechenden Technologien und Anwendungen benötigen jährlich 
über 23 Prozent der Energie und über 50 Prozent der Elektrizität, die in der Sch weiz verbraucht 
werden (50 TWh bzw. 29 TWh Strom ). Das Potenzial der Produktion und grösstenteils der eigenen 
Nutzung von erneuerbaren Energien durch für Unternehmen spezifische Anlagen kann auf rund 7 
TWh geschätzt werden (Eicher +Pauli 2018).  
 37 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Tabelle 3: Anteile von grossen, mittleren und kleinen Unternehmen am Stromverbrauch  
 Stromverbrauch pro Un-
ternehmen  Anzahl Unternehmen  Anteil am Stromver-
brauch im Sektor Indust-
rie und Dienstleistungen  
Grosse Unternehmen 
mit Zielvereinbarung  Mehr als 500 MWh / Jahr  1 400 30 %  
Grosse Unternehmen 
mit Potenzial für neue 
Zielvereinbarung  Mehr als 500 MWh / Jahr  10 000 30 %  
Mittlere Unternehmen  100 bis 500 MWh / Jahr  80 000 30 %  
Kleine Unternehmen  < als 100 MWh / Jahr  400 000 10 %  
Quelle: BFE, 2011, Stromeffizienz im Industrie - und Dienstleistungssektor: Schlussbericht der Arbeitsgruppe.  
Die Unternehmen können nach Energieverbrauch und Energiekosten in «grosse», «mittlere» und 
«kleine» Unternehmen unterteilt werden ( vgl. Tabelle 3). Dabei wird angenommen, dass Elektrizi-
tätsverbrauch und thermischer Energieverbrauch korrespondieren und sich keine wesentlichen Ver-
schiebungen bei der Anzahl Unternehmen in den verschiedenen Grössenklassen ergeben:  
 Die «grossen» Unternehmen (>500 MWh el oder 5  000 MWh th oder jährlichen Energiekosten 
von über CHF 300  000) umfassen heute rund 10  000 bis 12  000 Unternehmen. Sie können 
sich durch eine Zielvereinbarung von Detailvorsch riften der Kantone (vgl. kantonale Grossver-
braucherartikel  gemäss EnG Art. 46 Abs. 3 ) und/oder von der CO 2-Abgabe befreien bzw. den 
Netzzuschlag rückerstatten lassen (bzw. unterstehen teilweise dem Emissionshandel). Die 
grossen Unternehmen sind für einen A nteil von rund 60 Prozent (ohne Treibstoffe) des Ener-
gieverbrauchs der Unternehmen verantwortlich.  
 Die Gruppe der «mittleren » Unternehmen (100 –500 MWh el oder jährlichen Energiekosten zwi-
schen CHF 20  000 und 300  000) betrifft ca. 80  000 Unternehmen mit eine m Energiever-
brauchsanteil von rund 30 Prozent. Im Vergleich zu den grossen Unternehmen haben diese 
Unternehmen weniger Fachkompetenzen und Ressourcen und weniger Anreize durch ener-
gie- und klimapolitische Massnahmen wie Rückerstattung der CO 2-Abgabe und de s Netzzu-
schlags oder der Erfüllung des Grossverbraucherartikels der Kantone.  
 Die Gruppe der «kleinen » Unternehmen (<  100 MWh el oder jährliche Energiekosten von 
< CHF 20 000) umfasst mehr als 400  000 Unternehmen mit einem Energieverbrauchsanteil 
von rund 1 0 Prozent. Neben einem vergleichsweise geringen Energieverbrauchsanteil sind sie 
aufgrund anderer Prioritäten sehr schwierig für Investitionen in Energieeffizienz und erneuer-
bare Energien zu motivieren. In ihrem Energieverbrauchsverhalten sind sie zu einem  grossen 
Teil mit privaten Haushalten vergleichbar, zusätzlich verfügen sie über gewerbliche Geräte.  
  38 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 5.1.2  Trends  
Untern ehmen der  Industrie und der Dienstleistungen konnten die Energieeffizienz bereits steigern 
und namentlich auch die CO 2-Intensität verringern – letzteres auch durch die Substitution von Öl zu 
Gas, zu Energieholz, zu Fernwärme oder zu Strom und Umweltwärme. Künftig zeichnen sich fol-
gende Trends ab:  
 Grundsätzlich ist davon auszugehen, dass sowohl die Dekarbonisierung als au ch die Elektrifi-
zierung weiter zunehmen werden . Neue Anlagen und Prozesse werden noch stärker automa-
tisiert, digitalisiert und auf elektrischen Antrieben und Informations - und Kommunikationstech-
nologien basieren.  
 Dank technischem Fortschritt und Skaleneff ekten verbessert sich die Wirtschaftlichkeit von er-
neuerbaren Energien und von energieeffizienten Technologien. Neue Marktakteure und Ange-
bote in der stärker dezentralisierten und vernetzten Energiewirtschaft erlauben es den Unter-
nehmen, mit eigener Produk tion und gesteuertem Verbrauch zu stabilen dezentralen Energie-
systemen beizutragen.  
 Durch die zunehmend liberalisierten Energiemärkte sowie die technischen Möglichkeiten der 
Digitalisierung, können die Unternehmen auch auf Innovationszyklen und technologi sche Um-
brüche  reagieren , die in immer kürzeren Zeitspannen stattfinden.  
 Der gesellschaftliche und politische Druck für Klimaschutz, Energieeffizienz un d erneuerbare 
Energien nimmt zu.  Unternehmen engagieren sich stärker, weil das den Vorgaben der interna-
tionalen und nationalen Klima - und Energiepolitiken entspricht (zu den gesetzlichen Rahmen-
bedingungen vgl. weiter unten) und weil die Konsumenten dies fordern. Durch eigene Beiträge, 
die über die minimalen Vorgaben der Politik hinausgehen, können sich Unter nehmen gegen-
über den Kunden profilieren.  
5.1.3  Potenziale  
Anlagen und Prozesse in der Industrie und in Dienstleistungen verfügen über ein hohes Effizienz-
potenzial, das mit bestehenden Technologien und grösstenteils wirtschaftlich ausgeschöpft werden 
kann.  
 Bei der Prozesswärme (Industrie) sind Einsparungen von 30 bis 35 Prozent realistisch, bei 
elektromechanischen Antrieben und Prozessen solche von 20 bis 25 Prozent.  
 Bei den Informations - und Kommunikationstechnologien (Rechenzentren) können über 35 Pro-
zent ein gespart werden («efficiency in ICT»), wobei diese Technologien auch dazu dienen, in 
anderen Anwendungen Energie einzusparen («efficiency through ICT»).  
 Die Beleuchtung kann mit LED und Sensorik zwischen 50 und 75 Prozent des verbrauchten 
Stroms einsparen.   
Insgesamt gibt es in der Industrie grosse Potenziale bei der Energieeffizienz, den elektrischen An-
triebssystemen und der Wärmerückgewinnung respektive Abwärmenutzung . Im Dienstleistungssektor 
liegen die Potenziale eher bei der ICT und den Infrastrukturan lagen wie Lüftungen, Klimakälte und 
Beleuchtung. Weitere Potenzial e ergeben sich durch die Nutzung von erneuerbaren Energien sowie 
von Fern - und Nahwärme. Diese gilt es im Hinblick auf die Dekarbonisierung vermehrt auszuschöpfen.  39 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 5.1.4  Hemmnisse  
Grundsätzlich haben die Unternehmen ein Interesse, wirtschaftliche Effizienzmassnahmen zu rea-
lisieren und erneuerbare Energien zu nutzen. Dies gelingt jedoch oft nicht. Die Haupthemmnisse für 
die Ausschöpfung der Potenziale sind:  
 Es fehlen die Kompetenz en und die Zeit f ür die Analyse der ökonomischen Potenziale oder die 
ökonomischen Potenziale sind angesichts der geringen Bedeutung der Energiekosten für die 
Unternehmen zweitrangig.  
 Es bestehen betriebliche und organisatorische Hemmnisse, etwa die Vermeidung einer Stö-
rung des Produktionsprozesses oder unterschiedliche Verantwortlichkeiten für Investition und 
Unterhalt/Betrieb.  
 Investitionsentscheide werden oft kurzfristig getroffen. Die Energieeffizienz steht dann nicht im 
Fokus, sondern eine möglichst identische Ersatzbes chaffung der bisherigen Technologien. Die 
Investitionen werden nicht auf der Basis des gesamten Lebenszyklus (Life Cycle Costs) be-
wertet . Damit werden Energieeffizienz - und Einsparpotenziale nicht ausgeschöpft – was sich 
etwa in Ausschreibungen zeigt, die oft den Einkaufspreis zu stark gewichten bzw. die Betriebs-
kosten nicht berücksichtigen.  
 Oft mangelt es a n Wissen über das vorhandene Angebot oder an Vertrauen in eine neue, 
besonders effiziente Technologie, weil konkrete Anwendungsbeispiele oder der Zugang  zu Be-
ratung fehlen.  
 Im Zusammenhang mit der Betriebsoptimierung fehlt die Sensibilisierung des Managements 
und des Betriebspersonals, bzw. den Massnahmen wird zu wenig Priorität eingeräumt. Das 
Bewusstsein für das Potenzial und eine Berechnung des Kosten -Nutzen -Verhältnisses fehlen. 
Die Unterstützung durch die Hersteller der Anlagen und Lieferanten bleibt in der Phase der 
Betriebsoptimierung in der Regel aus.  
 Schliesslich bestehen auch bei Mittlern und Multiplikatoren Hemmnisse. Mittler stehen in direk-
tem Kontakt mit den Unternehmen und können sich mit zielführenden Dienstleistungen bei 
ihrer Kundschaft einen Vorteil verschaffen. Multiplikatoren sind Organisationen und Unterneh-
men, die bereits über enge Kontakte zu Unternehmen verfügen, in diesen aber nicht  Massnah-
men umsetzen oder begleiten. Für Mittler und Multiplikatoren stehen die Themen Energieeffi-
zienz und erneuerbare Energien oft noch nicht im Fokus, sie verfügen über knappe Ressour-
cen und/oder Know -how.  
5.1.5  Energie - und klimapolitische Ziele und Massnahm en 
Das Energiegesetz formuliert kein verbindliches Ziel für die Energieeffizienz von Anlagen und Prozes-
sen oder die Produktion und Nutzung von erneuerbaren Energien durch Unternehmen. Im CO 2-Ge-
setz ist kein Ziel für Unternehmen definiert. Möglich ist jedoc h, dass der Bundesrat in der CO 2-Verord-
nung zukünftig ein Ziel für die Industrie definiert. Aufgrund der grossen Bedeutung der Anlagen und 
Prozesse für den Energieverbrauch und insbesondere für den Stromverbrauch, geht EnergieSchweiz 
davon aus, dass die Un ternehmen – und dabei insbesondere die Grossverbraucher sowie die mittleren 
Unternehmen – mindestens alle wirtschaftlichen Effizienz potenzial e ausschöpfen müssen. Dies ge-
rade auch in der Stromeffizienz, weil die Unternehmen in der Schweiz den grössten Teil  des Stroms 
verbrauchen und die Nachfrage nach Strom in allen Sektoren grundsätzlich steigen wird.  40 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Es bestehen bereits eine Reihe von energie - und klimapolitischen Massnahmen zu Anlagen und 
Prozessen in Industrie und Dienstleistungsunternehmen:  
 Grössere Un ternehmen sind entweder in das Emissionshandelssystem eingebunden oder dem 
kantonalen Grossverbraucherartikel unterstellt. Sie haben zudem die Möglichkeit, sich erstens 
von der CO 2-Abgabe befreien zu lassen, wenn sie sich verpflichten, Emissionen zu vermin dern. 
Zweitens können sie mit einer Zielvereinbarung auch den Netzzuschlag zurückerstatten las-
sen. Diese Massnahmen zielen in erster Linie auf wirtschaftliche Massnahmen in den Unter-
nehmen, wobei traditionell in Zielvereinbarungen und damit verbundenen Ene rgieverbrauchs-
analysen eher Massnahmen im Bereich Brennstoffe im Vordergrund stehen. Da die Massnah-
men über einen längeren Zeitpunkt vereinbart werden und bei Nichteinhaltung der Zielverein-
barung Sanktionen drohen, gelingt es jedoch oft nicht, alle wirtsch aftlichen Massnahmen der 
Unternehmen zu realisieren.  
 Für serienmässig hergestellte Geräte und Anlagen gibt es energetische Vorschriften (Mindest-
anforderungen an die Effizienz, Deklaration der Effizienz und des Verbrauchs). Damit wird der 
Bestand von Geräten, Anlagen und Komponenten von Anlagen durch Neu - und Ersatzanschaf-
fungen mit der Zeit effizienter. Sie können aber nicht gewährleisten, dass jeweils das effizien-
teste und wirtschaftlichste Gerät bzw. Anlage beschafft wird, zudem bleiben sie auf der Ebene 
der einzelnen Komponenten und fördern nicht den Systemansatz.  
 Es gibt eine Reihe von Förderprogrammen, namentlich für die Produktion von erneuerbaren 
Energien (KEV, Investitionsbeiträge, Einmalvergütungen), für stromeffi ziente Anlagen und Ge-
räte (die  wettbewerblichen Ausschreibungen/ProKilowatt) und für CO 2-Kompensationen. Die-
sen Förderprogrammen ist gemeinsam, dass sie unwirtschaftliche Massnahmen näher an die 
Wirtschaftlichkeit führen. Sie decken damit Investitionen ab, die nicht unter die Vorschrif ten 
fallen. Die Reichweite der Förderprogramme ist jedoch begrenzt.  
5.1.6  Verbleibende Herausforderungen  
Die bestehenden energie - und klimapolitischen Massnahmen können die oben genannten Hemm-
nisse nur teilweise überwinden. Bei den grossen Unternehmen können Zie lvereinbarungen und da-
mit verbundene Energieverbrauchsanalysen komplexe und systemische Massnahmen von Produk-
tionsprozessen, Wärme - und Kältesystemen oder Systemen elektrischer Antriebe nicht abdecken. 
Dasselbe trifft für Massnahmen zur Betriebsoptimierung  zu, die regelmässig durchgeführt werden 
müssen. Bei den mittleren Unternehmen sind die Hemmnisse noch ausgeprägter, weil diese nicht 
von Anreizen zur Rückerstattung der CO 2-Abgabe oder des Netzzuschlags profitieren können und 
somit auch keine Zielvereinba rungen mit einer Energieverbrauchsanalyse eingehen. Zudem haben 
mittlere und kleinere Unternehmen oft kein eigenes technisches Personal für komplexe Anlagen und 
Prozesse. Der Energieeffizienz wird aus Zeitgründen noch weniger Priorität eingeräumt als bei g ros-
sen Unternehmen. Schliesslich sind Vorschriften und Förderprogramme keine Selbstläufer. Neben 
der Information braucht es auch genügend ausgebildete Fachkräfte, die kompetente Beratung bie-
ten und Massnahmen umsetzen können.  
Insgesamt müssen die regulativ en und finanziellen Instrumente deshalb durch EnergieSchweiz mit 
Information, Beratung, Aus - und Weiterbildung flankiert und ergänzt werden. EnergieSchweiz zielt 
im zentralen Handlungsfeld «Anlagen und Prozesse in Industrie und Dienstleistungen» vor allem 
darauf, die Defizite von Unternehmen bei der Information, dem Wissen und der Sensibilisierung 
abzubauen und neue Lösungen zu unterstützen. Damit sollen insbesondere die mit der Umsetzung 
von Energieeffizienzmassnahmen und der Nutzung von erneuerbaren Energ ien verbundenen 
Transaktionskosten der Unternehmen verringert werden.  41 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 5.2 Ziele   
5.2.1  Unternehmen  
Die Wirkungsziele von EnergieSchweiz im zentralen Handlungsfeld «Anlagen und Prozesse in In-
dustrie und Dienstleistungen» müssen je nach Grösse des Unternehmens unterschiedlich formuliert 
werden. Der Grund dafür liegt in den oben beschriebenen unterschiedlichen Hemmnissen, Prioritä-
ten und Ressourcen sowie energie - und klimapolitischen Vorgaben.  
«Grosse» Unternehmen (>500 MWh el oder 5  000 MWh th oder jä hrlichen Ener giekosten über 
CHF 300 000) stellen die prioritäre Zielgruppe dar. Bei den grossen Unternehmen wird davon aus-
gegangen, dass sie über ein Mindestmass an Ressourcen, Kapazitäten und Erfahrung im Bereich 
Energieeffizienz verfügen. Die Unternehmen sind grundsä tzlich in der Lage, einfachere Massnah-
men («low hanging fruits») zu realisieren, was aufgrund der gesetzlichen Rahmenbedingungen zu 
einem bedeutenden Teil auch erfolgt. EnergieSchweiz verfolgt die folgenden Ziele:  
 Grosse Unternehmen nutzen weitgehend alle  wirtschaftlichen Effizienzpotenziale, darunter 
sämtliche einfache n Massnahmen und speziell auch solche in komplexen Anlagen und Pro-
zessen und im Betrieb, die nicht im Rahmen von Zielvereinbarungen abgedeckt sind.  
 Sie setzen vermehrt erneuerbare Energien ein. 
 Grosse Unternehmen führen systematisch und kontinuierlich Betriebsoptimierung en sowie  ver-
tiefte Analysen der Anlagen und Prozesse durch.  
 Sie nutzen die Potenziale der Digitalisierung und verbessern die Effizienz der unternehmens-
eigenen IKT.  
«Mittlere » Unternehmen (100 –500 MWh el oder jährliche Energiekosten zwischen CHF 20  000 und 
300 000) verfügen im Vergleich zu den grossen Unternehmen über weniger Ressourcen und tiefere 
gesetzliche Auflagen für Energieeffizienz und die Nutzung von erneuerbaren Energi en. Energie-
Schweiz verfolgt die folgenden Ziele:  
 Mittlere Unternehmen sind generell über Energieeffizienz und erneuerbare Energien informiert, 
lassen sich beraten, sind für die Umsetzung von Massnahmen sensibilisiert und setzen diese 
auch um.  
 Sie realisier en möglichst alle einfache n Massnahmen («low hanging fruits»).  
 Wenn m ittlere Unternehmen  die einfachen Massnahmen realisiert haben, verfolgen sie diesel-
ben Ziele  wie die grossen Unternehmen.  
«Kleine » Unternehmen (< 100 MWh el oder jährliche Energiekosten vo n < CHF 20  000) werden aus 
Kosten -Nutzen -Überlegungen nicht prioritär angesprochen. EnergieSchweiz verfolgt nichtsdestot-
rotz die folgenden Ziele:  
 Kleine Unternehmen setzen bei Interesse  einfache und wirtschaftliche Massnahmen mit wenig 
Aufwand um. 
 Sie sind über einfach umsetzbare und wirtschaftliche Massnahmen informiert und entspre-
chend sensibilisiert.  
  42 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Aus Effektivitäts - und Effizienzüberlegungen sollten die bei den Unternehmen angestrebten energie - 
und klimapolitischen Ziele in erster Linie durch Verhaltensänderungen der grossen Unternehmen 
erreicht werden (Orientierungsgrösse: ca. 2/3). Die mittleren U nternehmen sollten zu knapp einem 
Drittel  zu den Zielen beitragen. Die kleinen Unternehmen haben mit erwarteten Zielbeiträgen weni-
ger als 5 Prozent keine Priorität. Diese Aufteilung bezieht sich auf Anlagen und Prozesse, zusätzlich 
sind auch Verhaltensände rungen bei Gebäuden und erneuerbaren Energien und der Mobilität nötig 
(vgl. Kapitel 4 und 6.1). 
5.2.2  Mittler und Multiplikatoren  
Enge Partnerschaften mit Mittlern und Multiplikatoren tragen massgebend zur Zielerreichung bei. 
Damit gemeinsame Massnahmen und Aktivitäten erfolgreich sind, müssen sie sowohl für die Unter-
nehmen als Endkunden als auch für die beteiligten Mittler und Multiplikatoren Chancen bieten. Ener-
gieSchweiz zielt deshalb auf eine partnerschaftliche Zusammenarbeit mit Mittlern und Multiplikato-
ren ab, welche diese darin unterstützt, attraktive Dienstleistungen für die Energie effizienz und er-
neuerbaren Energien anzubieten (angebotsseitige Massnahmen). Bestehende Angebote werden 
nicht konkurrenziert. Wie bei den Unternehmen beschrieben, wirkt EnergieSchweiz in erster Linie 
auf der Nachfrageseite, indem der Markt erweitert wird.  
Als prioritäre Mittler sind Energieberater, Installateure, Fachplaner, Anlagenbauer, Hersteller , Ge-
meindeverwaltung en und Lieferanten zu nennen. Energieeffizienz und erneuerbare Energien bieten 
diesen Mittlern ein Geschäftsfeld an. Sie können der Kundschaf t nur zielführende Dienstleistungen 
anbieten, wenn sie über die entsprechenden Qualifikationen verfügen. Gleichzeitig muss die Kund-
schaft über das Angebot an Effizienztechnologien und erneuerbaren Energien aus neutraler Warte 
informiert sein und (wie oben dargestellt) diese Dienstleistungen in einem viel höheren Masse auch 
nachfragen. EnergieSchweiz verfolgt entsprechend die folgenden Ziele:  
 Es sind genügend gut aus - und weitergebildete Mittler vorhanden.  
 Energieeffizienz und erneuerbare Energien sind stand ardmässig ein integraler Bestandteil von 
Angeboten der prioritären Mittler.  
 Mittler verfügen über die nötigen Grundlagen, Qualifikationen und Ressourcen, um in Unter-
nehmen konkrete Massnahmen für die Energieeffizienz und erneuerbaren Energien auszulö-
sen un d zu begleiten.  
Prioritäre Multiplikatoren  sind vor allem Fach - und Branchenverbände, Städte und Gemeinden, die 
Kantone, und Energieversorgungsunternehmen. Für die Multiplikatoren stehen die Themen Ener-
gieeffizienz und erneuerbare Energien oft nicht im Fok us. Sie verfügen über knappe Ressourcen 
und Know -How oder – im Falle der öffentlichen Hand – beschränken diese meist auf die Umsetzung 
des gesetzlichen Minimums, wodurch weitere Potenziale nicht ausgeschöpft werden. Energie-
Schweiz verfolgt entsprechend die  folgenden Ziele:  
 Multiplikatoren informieren, sensibilisieren und beraten in ihrem Einflussbereich Unternehmen 
über konkrete Massnahmen für die Energieeffizienz und erneuerbare Energien.  
 Multiplikatoren bieten Aus - und Weiterbildungen an oder weisen auf solche hin.  
  43 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Ergänzend sind die folgenden spezifischen Mittler und Multiplikatoren von Bedeutung: Umwelt - und 
Konsumentenorganisationen sowie NGO, Finanzierer und Banken, Aus - und Weiterbildungsstätten 
und -organisationen (z.B. Berufsverbände, ETH, FHS), Agenturen ( z.B. act, EnAW, energo), Stif-
tungen und Vereine (u.a. Klik, Klimastiftung, myclimate, Reffnet) und die Medien. EnergieSchweiz 
verfolgt entsprechend die folgenden Ziele:  
 Die weiteren Mittler und Multiplikatoren bieten Information, Beratung und Au s- und Weiterbildung 
für Energieeffizienz und erneuerbare Energien an oder weisen auf bestehende Angebote hin.  
 Die weiteren Mittler und Multiplikatoren  nutzen bestehende Synergien und verstärken dadurch 
die Wirkung und Effizienz ihrer Massnahmen.  
5.2.3  Beitrag z u den energie - und klimapolitischen Zielen  
Die anvisierten Verhaltensänderungen bei Unternehmen, Mittler en und Multiplikatoren dienen an-
schliessend dazu, dass die Unternehmen die Energieeffizienzpotenziale, die mit bestehenden Tech-
nologien umsetzbar und we itgehend wirtschaftlich sind, ausschöpfen und die Potenziale für die Nut-
zung von erneuerbaren Ene rgien für die Prozesswärme und -kälte nutzen. Dabei stehen quantitativ 
wie oben beschrieben die grossen Unternehmen im Mittelpunkt. Während bei den mittleren U nterneh-
men ebenfalls Verhaltensänderungen erzielt werden sollen, spielen die kleineren Unternehmen aus 
Kosten -Nutzen -Überlegungen für das Handlungsfeld «Anlagen und Prozesse in Industrie und Dienst-
leistungen» keine prioritäre Rolle. Durch die energetischen  Wirkungen und durch die Substitution von 
fossilen Energien durch erneuerbare Energien und Strom reduzieren die Unternehmen ihre CO 2-Emis-
sionen. Insgesamt trägt dies zu den energie - und klimapoli tischen Zielen der Schweiz bei.  
5.3 Massnahmen   
Massnahmen i n den Handlungsfeldern  Mobilität, Gebäude und erneuerbare Energien werden im 
Kapitel 4 «Mobilität von Privaten und Unternehmen» und im Kapitel 6.1 «Gebäude und erneuerbare 
Energie in Industrie und Dienstleistungen» behandelt. Die Marktbearbeitung bzw. die Umsetzung 
der entsprechenden Massnahmen für Industrie und Dienstleistungen erfolgt  koordiniert und soll 
möglichst alle Aspekte umfassen.   
5.3.1  Massnahmen für grosse Unternehmen  
Die Massnahmen für grosse Unternehmen entsprechen allesamt der ersten Priorität , da sie die 
prioritäre Zielgruppe des zentralen Handlungsfelds «Anlagen und Prozesse i n Industrie und Dienst-
leistungen» sind.  
 Förderung von Information und Beratung: Im Vordergrund stehen vertiefte, systematische 
Feinanalysen zur Quantifizierung der Potenziale und Bestimmung von Massnahmen für ener-
gieeffiziente Wärme - und Kälteprozesse, der  Nutzung von Abwärme sowie für elektrische und 
elektromechanische Anlagen.  
 Begleitung und Unterstützung der Unternehmen bei der Umsetzung von Erneuerungsinvestitio-
nen und vorzeitigem Ersatz, u.a. durch Erhöhung der Beschaffungskompetenz (Grundlagen, In-
formation, Förderung von Beratung) und Information zu Förderm öglichkeiten (z.B. ProKilowatt)   44 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
  Begleitung und Unterstützung der Unternehmen bei der energieeffizienten Betriebsoptimierung 
und Instandhaltung durch Information, Aus - und Weiterbildung des Betriebspersonals sowie 
Sensibilisierung der Geschäfts leitungen  
 Information und Beratung von Unternehmen über die Potenziale der Nutzung der Digitalisie-
rung für die Energieeffizienz (z.B. Sensibilisierung und Information der Geschäftsleitungen, 
Analyse des  Potenzials der Unternehmen, Unterstützung von Pilotprojekten und Er stellung von 
guten Beispielen)  
 Information und Beratung für strategische Entscheide zur Beschaffung und Erneuerung von 
IKT (Grundlagen, Kam pagnen, Förderung der Beratung)  
 Weiterbildung der  Leitenden aus Technik, Betrieb und Einkauf  
 Weiterbildung und Qualitätssicherung der Energieberater von Installateuren, Fachplanern und 
Anlagenbauern  
 Verstärkte Zusammenarbeit mit wichtigen Multiplikatoren (z.B. Fach - und Branchenverbände, 
EVU, Kantone, St ädte und Gemeinden) für die Information von grossen Unternehmen  
5.3.2  Massnahmen für mittlere Unternehmen  
Bei den mittleren Unternehmen hat die Förderung von Information und Beratung zur ganzen Breite 
der möglichen wirtschaftlich realisierbaren Potenziale hohe P riorität. Dem nachgelagert werden die-
selben Massnahmen angeboten wie bei den grossen Unternehmen, weshalb sich die Darstellung 
der Massnahmen zwar grösstenteils wiederholt, die Priorität aber im Vergleich zu den grossen Un-
ternehmen tiefer ist. Im Vergleich  zu den grossen Unternehmen nehmen hingegen die gewerblichen 
Geräte einen höheren Stellenwert ein (z.B. Küchengeräte für Gastronomie oder Spitalgeräte).  
Massnahmen erster Priorität :  
 Förderung von Information und Beratung. Im Vordergrund stehen einfache In strumente zur 
Quantifizierung der Potenziale und Bestimmung von Massnahmen für energieeffiziente 
Wärme - und Kälteprozesse, der Nutzung von Abwärme sowie für elektrische und elektrome-
chanische Anlagen.  
 Begleitung und Unterstützung der Unternehmen bei der en ergieeffizienten Betriebsoptimierung 
und Instandhaltung durch Information, Aus - und Weiterbildung des Betriebspersonals sowie 
Sensibilisierung der Geschäftsleitungen  
Massnahmen zweiter Priorität : 
 Begleitung und Unterstützung der Unternehmen bei der Umsetzu ng von Erneuerungsinvestitio-
nen und vorzeitigem Ersatz, u.a. durch Erhöhung der Beschaffungskompetenz (Grundlagen, In-
formation, Förderung von Beratung) und Information zu Fördermöglichkeiten (z.B. ProKilowatt)  
 Flankierende Information und Beratung zu Vorsc hriften und Förderprogrammen, insbesondere 
auch zu gewerblichen Geräten und Schaffen von Grundlagen für transparente Kundeninfor-
mation und Normierung  
 Information und Beratung von Unternehmen über die Potenziale der Nutzung der Digitalisie-
rung für die Energ ieeffizienz (z.B. Sensibilisierung und Information der Geschäftsleitungen, 
Analyse des Potenzials der Unternehmen, Unterstützung von Pilotprojekten und Erstellung von 
guten Beispielen)  45 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
  Weiterbildung und Qualitätssicherung der Energieberater, von Installate uren, Fachplanern und 
Anlagenbauern  
 Verstärkte Zusammenarbeit mit wichtigen Multiplikatoren (z.B. Fach - und Branchenverbände, 
EVU, Kantone, Städte und Gemeinden) für die Information von mittleren Unternehmen  
5.3.3  Massnahmen für kleine Unternehmen  
Für kleine Unt ernehmen werden nur einzelne einfache Massnahmen vorgesehen , die lediglich der 
dritten Priorität  entsprechen . Hier ist die Zusammenarbeit mit wichtigen Multiplikatoren besonders 
bedeutend . Einfach umsetzbare und wirtschaftliche Massnahmen stehen im Vordergrund. Zudem 
können viele Massnahmen bzw. Angebote des Handlungsfelds «Gebäude und erneuerbare Ener-
gien in privaten Haushalten» (vgl. Kapitel 3) von kleinen Unternehmen ebenfalls genutzt werden.  
 Bereitstellung von Informationen zu Energieeffizienz und erneuerbaren Energien  
 Zusammenarbeit mit wichtigen Multiplikatoren (z.B. Fach - und Branchenverbände, EVU,  Kan-
tone, Städte und Gemeinden) für die Information von kleinen Unternehmen  
 
  46 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 
 Weitere Handlungsfelder   
EnergieS chweiz setzt in einer Reihe weiterer Handlungsfelder Massnahmen im Bereich der Infor-
mation, Beratung, Aus - und Weiterbildung sowie Qualitätssicherung um. Diese sind für die restli-
chen, insgesamt rund 26 Prozent des Energieverbrauchs der Schweiz verantwortlich. Auch in die-
sen Handlungsfeldern besteht jeweils ein bedeutendes Energieeffizi enz- und/oder Produktions po-
tenzial , das mit Massnahmen adressiert werden soll. Im Vergleich zu den drei genannten prioritären 
Handlungsfeldern (vgl. Kapitel 3, 4 und 5) sind diese aber geringer oder weniger leicht umsetzbar, 
weshalb weniger Ressourcen zur Verfügung gestellt werden . 
Zu den w eitere n Handlungsfelder n gehört die Verbesserung der Gebäudeeffizienz und die Unter-
stützung des Einsatzes erneuerbarer Energien in Unternehmen , bei den Privathaushalten die ener-
gieeffizienten Elektrogeräte inklusive der  Beleuchtung. Ebenfalls Han dlungsfelder sind  der Ausbau 
der Produktion von erneuerbaren Energien in der Schweiz durch Produzenten, welche die Energie 
nicht selber  nutzen, sondern weiterverka ufen, sowie Netze und Speicherung .  
6.1 Gebäude und erneuerbare Energien in Industrie und Dienst-
leistungen   
6.1.1  Ausgangslage  
Die Unternehmen investieren noch zu wenig in erneuerbare Energien und schöpfen das zu 
erreichende Potenzial nur in geringem Masse aus. Industriebetriebe und Dienstleistungsunterneh-
men können Raumwärme und Brauchwarmwasser gut durch erneuerbare Energien decken. Beson-
ders attraktiv ist die effiziente Koppelung von Kälte - und Wärmebedarf unter Einsatz von Wärme-
pumpen.  
Das Potenzial für erneuerbare Energien in Industrie und Dienstleistungen ist gross. Eine direkte 
Einbindung in industrie lle Prozesse ist oft anspruchsvoll, aber möglich. Ein grosses Potenzial be-
steht für erneuerbare Energie, die für die Raumwärme, das Warmwasser oder den Eigenverbrauch 
an Strom genutzt werden kann.  
 Die Nutzung der Photovoltaik,  speziell zum Eigenstromverbra uch, weist ein grosses Potenzial 
auf. Entsprechende Massnahmen sind im Kapitel 3 Gebäude und erneuerbare Energien in 
privaten Haushalten und im Kapitel 6.3 Grossanlagen für erneuerbare Energie sowie im Kapitel 
6.4 Netze und Speicherung enthalten.  Die Nutzung der thermischen Solarenergie weist hinge-
gen nur ein geringes Potenzial auf.  
 Erdgas kann direkt durch Biogas substituiert werden, was zu einem theoretischen Potenzial  
von 7.5 TWh/a führt. Diesem steht jedoch ein Biogas potenzial  von nur 2.3 TWh/a  gegenüber.  
 Die Biomasse (in erster Linie Energieholz) hat mit ca. 4.0 TWh/a das zweitgrösste Potenzial . 
Das dafür benötigte Energieholz wäre ausreichend  vorhanden .  
 Standardwärmepumpen könnten für die Produktion von Warmwasser und die Raumheizung 
einen B edarf von 1.6 TWh/a decken. Hochtemperaturwärmepumpen nutzen die interne Pro-
zessabwärme, ihr Potenzial  wird auf 0.7 TWh/a geschätzt.  47 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 6.1.2  Ziele  
EnergieSchweiz verfolgt die folgenden Ziele:  
 Beim Ausbau und der Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien werden primär die grossen und 
mittleren Unternehmen aktiv . Prioritär sollen die wirtschaftlichen Potenziale erschlossen 
werden. Dabei spielt es per se keine grosse Rolle, in welche erneuerbaren Energien die 
Unternehmen investieren. Wenn jedoch bestimmte Vorausset zungen und Gelegenheiten 
bestehen, sollte in geeignete Anlagen investiert werden (z.B. Wärmepumpe zur Nutzung von 
Abwärme aus Kälteanlagen).   
 Mittler und Multiplikatoren sprechen Ihre Kunden gezielt auf den Einsatz von erneuerbaren 
Energien an.  
6.1.3  Massnahmen  
EnergieSchweiz setzt insbesondere folgende Massnahmen um:  
 Information, Sensibilisierung und Motivierung von Entscheid ungsträger n in den Unternehmen 
zum Thema erneuerbare Energien  und Ausräumung bestehende r Vorurteile zu den einzelnen 
Technologien.  
 Aufzeig en von wirtschaftliche n und  multiplizierbare n Beispiele n für den Einsatz von 
erneuerbaren Energien und die Nutzung von Abwärme, wobei der Fokus auf die Lebenszyklus -
Kosten statt auf den einfachen pay back gelegt wird.  
 Schulung der wichtigsten Player (z.B. act, EnAW, energo, Energieberater, Ingenieurbüros, 
Architekten, Fachplaner, Installateure  und EVU), damit sie ihre Kunden fundiert und 
zielgerichtet beraten können.  
 Verpflichtung der entsprechenden Akteure i n den von EnergieSchweiz unterstützten Proj ekten 
und Aktivitäten ( z.B. PEIK, Pinch Analysen, Stromeffizienz,  usw.), den Einsatz erneuerbarer 
Energien zu thematisieren.  
Für die Ausschöpfung der Potenziale bei den  Gebäude n in Industrie und Dienstleistungen, wie z.B. 
der Ersatz von fossilen Wärm eerzeu gern, Gebäudehüllensanierung, Betriebsoptimierung usw., kön-
nen die Massnahmen des Kapitels 3 Gebäude und erneuerbare Energien in privaten Haushalten 
übertragen werden und müssen mit den weiteren Massnahmen i m Bereich  Industrie und Dienstleis-
tungen koordiniert werden.  
6.2 Elektrogeräte und Beleuchtungen in privaten Haushalten   
6.2.1  Ausgangslage  
Haushaltsgrossgeräte (17.9 Mio. Stück in Betrieb, Stromverbrauch 5.4 TWh), Elektronikgeräte (30.7 
Mio. Stück in Betrieb, Stromverbrauch 1.6 TWh) und Beleuchtungen (138 Mio. Stück in Betrieb, 
Stromverbrauch 1.3 TWh) in privaten Haushalten verursachten 2017 zusammen einen Stromver-
brauch von 8.3 GWh, rund 14  Prozent  des gesamten Str omverbrauchs in der Schweiz. Zu den 
grössten Stromverbrauchern bei den Haushaltsgeräten gehören die Elektroherde, Backöfen, Kühl-
geräte und Wäschetrockner, bei den Elektronikgeräten Fernseher, Set -Top-Boxen und Computer. 48 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Seit 2002 ergibt sich bei Haushaltsg rossgeräten eine Bestandszunahme von 32 Prozent , der Strom-
verbrauch hat dabei deutlich weniger stark zugenommen (+2  %). Im Bereich der Elektronikgeräte 
(IT-, Büro - und Unterhaltungselektronikgeräte) sind die Effizienzgewinne noch grösser als bei den 
Hausha ltgrossgeräten. Über alle Kategorien hinweg gesehen hat der Bestand seit dem Jahr 2002 
um 44  Prozent  zugenommen, der Stromverbrauch hingegen hat um 34  Prozent  abgenommen.  
Das Effizienzpotenzial  des heutigen Gerätebestands wird, verglichen mit Bestgeräten,  auf 25 Pro-
zent geschätzt. Im Bereich der Beleuchtung sind Einsparungen von über 50 Prozent realistisch. 
Zusätzlich gibt es durch die Digitalisierung (Internet  of Things) ein Potenzial , die Haushaltsgeräte 
im Lastmanagement einzusetzen.  
Für die Steigerung der Stromeffizienz von Elektrogeräten stehen verschiedene politische Instru-
mente zur Verfügung. Die bestehenden Effizienzanforderungen und Deklarationsvorschriften für 
Elektrogeräte werden entsprechend dem Stand der Technik verschärft und auf neue Geräteka tego-
rien ausgeweitet. Dies geschieht mehrheitlich gestützt auf Vorarbeiten der EU. Die Einhaltung dieser 
Vorschriften wird durch eine umfassende Marktkontrolle sichergestellt. Im Rahmen der wettbewerb-
lichen Ausschreibungen werden Projekte und Programme zur  Förderung der Stromeffizienz von 
Elektrogeräten (z.B. effizienter Beleuchtung) unterstützt.  
Als grösste Hemmnisse  zu einer noch stärkeren Verbreitung von effizienten Elektrogeräten und 
deren effizienten Nutzung zählen:  
 Die fehlende Transparenz bezüglich Lebensdauerkosten : Der Stromverbrauch weist in der Re-
gel eine geringe Bedeutung für Konsumenten auf . Die Investitionskosten beeinflussen den 
Kaufentscheid massgebend.  
 Die bereits grossen Fortschritte im Bereich der Stromeffizienz : Die Unterschiede zwische n den 
einzelnen Klassen der Energieetikette werden tendenziell  umso  kleiner, je ausgereifter eine 
Produktgruppe bereits ist. Die Unterschiede in der Effizienz vermögen die allfälligen Mehrkos-
ten über die Lebensdauer des Produkts nicht mehr aufzuwiegen.  
 Defizite in der Aus - und Weiterbildung von Mittlern (v.a. Handwerker, Handel, Architekten/Pla-
ner, Berater, Grosseinkäufer)  
 Fehlende Sensibilisierung oder Information für die effiziente Benutzung von Elektrogeräten 
(insbesondere Vermeidung von Standby -Verbrauc h) 
6.2.2  Ziele  
Die Ziele im Handlungsfeld Elektrogeräte und Beleuchtung lauten wie folgt:  
 Der Energieverbrauch von Elektrogeräten und der Beleuchtung wird stabilisiert resp. reduziert . 
Die Information und Sensibilisierung betreffend der (neuen) Energieetikette werden erhöht und 
die Umsetzung von Vorschriften und Förderprogrammen generell verbessert.  
 Der Information s- und Sensibilisierung sgrad  bezüglich effiziente r Geräte und optimierte m Be-
nutzerverhalten steig t, vor allem auch bei den Mittlern und Multiplikatore n. 
 Die Chancen des Internet of Things werden genutzt, um zusätzliche Effizienzgewinne zu er-
zielen und den Einsatz von Elektrogeräten in Mikrogrids oder als Regele nergie -Speicher zu 
optimieren.  49 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 6.2.3  Massnahmen  
Zur Erreichung obiger Ziele werden die folgenden Mas snahmen ergriffen : 
 Prioritär ist die Begleitung und Unterstützung von gesetzlichen Vorschriften  und Förderpro-
grammen durch  Information, Sensibilisierung und Aus - und Weiterbildung , z.B.  bezüglich den 
Energieetiketten , Bestgeräte n (energetische Betrachtung)  und ProKilowatt.  Sensibilisierung, 
Information und Beratung werden primär online vorgenommen . Offline -Aktivitäten sind punk-
tuell ergänzend sinnvoll. Auf ein statisches Label für Bestgeräte wird verzichtet, um keine Dop-
pelspurigkeiten mit den Energieetiket ten zu schaffen.  
 Ebenfalls prioritär ist die Erarbeitung von Grundlagen (z.B. Marktübersichten), welche der In-
formation der Konsumenten über Bestgeräte dienen und/oder in die Erarbeitung neuer Vor-
schriften oder von Förderprogrammen (ProKilowatt) einfliesse n. 
 Erkennung der Chancen der Informations - und Kommunikationstechnologien für die effiziente 
Verwendung von Energie und des Lastmanagement s und bei Bedarf diesbezügliche Informa-
tion und Beratung für die Bevölkerung (bspw. Einsatz von Sensoriklösungen in de r Beleuch-
tung). Das bedingt u.a. zusätzliche Ausbildungsangebote bei Mittlern (Elektroinstallateuren, 
Architekten, Bauherren , o.a. ). 
 Informierung der privaten Haushalte betreffend die effiziente Nutzung von Elektrogeräten, z.B. 
bei Elektronikgeräten auf di e Vermeidung des Standby -Verbrauchs hinweisen oder Energie-
aufwand in der Internetnutzung (Streaming) . 
6.3 Grossanlagen für erneuerbare Energien   
6.3.1  Ausgangslage  
Der Begriff «Grossanlagen für erneuerbare Energien» umfasst alle Anlagen zur Erzeugung erneu-
erbarer En ergien (Strom, Wärme und Treibstoff), die nicht den privaten Haushalten zugeordnet sind 
(vgl. Kapitel 3). Konkret sind es insbesondere die Kleinwasserkraftwerke, die W indenergieanlagen, 
die Tiefengeothermieanlagen, die Holzenergieanlagen, die Bio gasanlagen (zur Stromproduktion o-
der zur Aufbereitung und Einspeisung des Biogases ins Erdgasnetz) , die grossen Photovoltaik - und 
Solarthermieanlagen, die Infrastrukturanlagen ( KVA, ARA, Abwärme -, Abwasser - und Wasserver-
sorgung), die thermischen Netze zur Übertragung von Energie , der damit verbundene Einsatz von 
Wärmepumpen  sowie Anlagen, die zur Sektorkopplung dienen.  
Die Strom - und Wärmeproduktion aus neuen erneuerbaren Energien (ohne Wasserkraft) hat in den 
letzten zehn  Jahren (2007 –2017) stark zugenommen: Die Stromproduktion um zirka 200  Prozent  
und die Wärmeproduktion um zirka 50  Prozent  (Schweizerische Statistik de r erneuerbaren Ener-
gien). Gemäss den Richtwerten des Artikels 2 des Energiegesetzes soll die Stromproduktion aus 
neuen Erneuerbaren Energien bis 2035 um 212  Prozent  zunehmen und auf 11  400 GWh/Jahr stei-
gen. Weil mit den Kernkraftwerken künftig Bandenergie wegfallen wird, bekommt der Winterstrom -
Anteil der Stromproduktion aus erneuerbaren Energien zunehmende Bedeutung. Hier können vor 
allem die Geothermie und die Windenergie, in kleinerem Umfang aber auch die Photovoltaik und 
die Kleinwasserkraft wesentliche  Anteile beitragen.  50 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Für die Wärmeproduktion gibt es keine entsprechenden Richtwerte, sondern Szenarien für die En-
denergienachfrage aus erneuerbaren Energien in den Energieperspektiven 2050. Gemäss diesen 
Ausbauszenarien wäre eine Zunahme der Wärme bis 203 5 gegenüber heute von 57  Prozent  nötig.  
Für die Entwicklung der erneuerbaren Energien gibt es heute nach wie vor viele Hemmnisse, die je 
nach Technologie unterschiedlich ausfallen: Langwierige und komplexe Bewilligungsverfahren 
(Wind - und Wasserkraft); Kon flikte der Energieproduktion mit zahlreichen anderen Interessen wie 
z.B. dem Landschaftsschutz (Windenergie) oder der Luftreinhaltung (Holzenergie); hohe Anfangsi-
nvestitionen und entsprechende Finanzierungsschwierigkeiten; geringe Wettbewerbsfähigkeit bei 
tiefen Preisen für fossile Energieträger; Kostendruck und deren Wirkung auf die Qualität der Anla-
gen; mangelndes Fachwissen; Akzeptanzprobleme und Desinformation durch Opponenten etc.  
Für die Weiterentwicklung der erneuerbaren Energien und das Erreichen der Ausbauziele sind neben 
regulatorischen Massnahmen (Förderung, Lenkung) auch freiwillige  Massnahmen (z.B. Information, 
Beratung, Sensibilisierung) nötig. Diese werden im Rahmen von En ergieSchweiz durchgeführt.  
6.3.2  Ziele  
Die Aktivitäten von EnergieSchweiz leisten einen wesentlichen und unverzichtbaren Beitrag zur För-
derung der erneuerbaren Energien . Sie ergänzen die gesetzlichen Vorschriften und finanziellen För-
dermassnahmen der Energiestra tegie 2050 sinnvoll.  
EnergieSchweiz hilft, die oben beschriebenen Hemmnisse zu überwinden und hat dabei folgende 
Ziele:  
 Die Bevölkerung erhält  neutrale und hochwertige Informationen über die erneuerbaren Energien , 
einerseits von EnergieSchweiz direkt, ande rerseit über Dritte wie z.B. die Branchenverbände.  
 Potentiellen Bauherren stehen kompetente und gezielte  Beratungsdienstleistungen  zur Verfü-
gung . 
 Kantonale und kommunale Behörden verfügen über effiziente Bewilligungsprozesse und tau-
schen ihr Wissen regelmä ssig untereinander aus (insbesondere bei der Windenergie und der 
Geothermie).  
 Es sind  ausreichend qualifizierte Fachleute vorhanden , die den Stand der Technik kennen und 
verbauen.  
 Die Qualitätssicherung der Grossanlagen für erneuerbare Energien wird auf ho hem Niveau 
wahrgenommen . Es werden internationale Standards verwendet oder übertroffen.  
 Neue und innovative  Technologien  werden verbreitet und angewendet . 
6.3.3  Massnahmen  
Zur Unterstützung der Grossanlagen für erneuerbare Energien sind folgende Massnahmen geplant:  
 Erarbeitung von Grundlagen für die Optimierung der Rahmenbedingungen (Beispiele: Vor-
schriften, Leitfäden, Potenzial analysen, Machbarkeitsstudien etc.)  
 Erstellung und Unterstützung von neutralen und qualitativ hochwertigen Informationen für alle 
relevanten Zielgruppen (Publikationen, Webseite, Newsletter etc.)  
 Unterstützung von Beratungsmassnahmen zur Förderung der erneuerbaren Energien (Hotline, 
individuelle Vorgehensberatung, Ratgeber etc.)  51 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
  Stärkung der Sensibilisierung zugunsten der erneuerbaren Energien (Kommunikationskam-
pagnen, Ratgeber, Success -Stories etc.)  
 Unterstützung von Aus - und Weiterbildungsaktivitäten für die Fachleute (Kurse, Schulungsun-
terlagen, Fachveranstaltungen etc.)  
 Förderung und Unterstützung von Qualitätssicherungsmassnahmen v on erneuerbaren Ener-
giesystemen (Aufbau von Branchen -Know -how, Werkzeuge, Handbücher etc.)  
 Förderung und Unterstützung von innovativen Technologien (Austauschplattformen, Ausarbei-
tung von innovativen Konzepten, Kommunikation etc.)  
EnergieSchweiz arbeitet b ei der Entwicklung dieser Massnahmen in der Regel mit Partnern aus 
dem öffentlichen Sektor oder aus der Privatwirtschaft zusammen, damit die Verbreitung der Bot-
schaften von einem Multiplikationseffekt profitieren kann . Die enge Zusammenarbeit mit Branchen-
verbänden ist besonders zu erwähnen: Sie stellt sicher, dass die Massnahmen mit den aktuellen 
Marktbedürfnissen übereinstimmen. Die Verbände sorgen zudem für eine bessere Akzeptanz der 
Massnahmen durch den Einbezug der Marktakteure und stärken den Know -how Austausch zwi-
schen den relevanten Akteuren.   
6.4 Netze und Speicherung   
6.4.1  Ausgangslage  
Das vorliegende Kapitel beinhaltet sämtliche Infrastrukturen für die Strom - und Wärmebereitstellung 
sowie deren Verwendung.  
Die Herausforderungen aller netzgebundenen Energie infrastrukturen liegen bei der bedarfsgerech-
ten Bereitstellung der Energie, welche oft nicht dann «anfällt», wenn sie gebraucht wird. Mit Ener-
giespeichern kann das Angebot zeitlich verschoben werden Deshalb besteht national wie internati-
onal viel Interesse  am Thema Energiespeicher. Angesichts des klimapolitisch motivierten Ausbaus 
erneuerbarer Energien überall in Europa gelten sie als eine der Optionen zur notwendigen Flexibili-
sierung von Strom - und Wärmebereitstellung. Tatsächlich stellt die zunehmende flu ktuierende de-
zentrale Einspeisung in die Stromnetze, vor allem durch Wind - und Solarenergie, eine Herausfor-
derung für die Systemstabilität dar.  
Um Effizienzziele und die Verringerung des Energieverbrauch s zu erreichen, können Kurzzeit - oder 
saisonale Speic her einen wesentlichen Beitrag leisten, seien es z.B. Wärmespe icher in thermischen 
Netzen mit oder ohne WKK -Anlagen, geologische Speicher, Schwungräder, Pumpspeicher, chemi-
sche Speicher wie Batterien, P2X -Technologien und noch viele mehr. Diese können zur Vermeidung 
von Energieverlusten und damit zur Steigerung der Systemeffizienz beitragen.  
Es gibt somit einige Schnittstellen zwischen der Strom - und Wärmeproduktion aus erneu erbaren 
Energien  und den  Netzen sowie entsprechenden Speicher n. Diese werden  aktuell auch im hoheitli-
chen Bereich diskutiert (etwa bei der Revision des StromVG) und wird künftig relevant sein.  52 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 6.4.2  Ziele  
Das grundlegende Ziel ist die Vereinfachung und Optimierung der Integration grosser Anteile von 
Elektrizität und Wärme aus erneuerb aren Energien ins Schweizer Energiesystem. Dabei sind neben 
der Begleitung der oben beschriebenen Entwicklungen folgende Ziele wichtig:  
 Die Energieversorgung im Winter sollte ausreichend sein und mit Produktionsüberschüssen im 
Sommer ist sinnvoll umzugehen20.  
 Strom - und Wärme -Netze sind gemäss den Bedürfnissen des zukünftigen Produktionsparks 
optimiert.  
 Die erforderliche Qualität der Systeme und Systemkomponenten wird durch Aus - und Weiter-
bildung, Information und Beratung erreicht.  
 Umfassende notwendige Gru ndlagen wie Statistiken, Normen und Standards in Planungs - und 
Ausbildungsunterlagen stehen zur Verfügung  und sind aktuell.  
 Der sinnvolle Einsatz von Speicherlösungen je nach Bedarf und Anwendungsbereich ist si-
chergestellt, z.B. bei der Entlastung des Verteilnetzes mittels Batterien  oder virtuellen Kraft-
werken  sowie  bei der Unterstützung der Speicherung von Produktionsüberschüssen vom Som-
mer für den Winter.  
 Die Steuerung des Verbrauchs und das Angebot der Energien spielen optimal zusammen .  
 Hemmnisse be im notwen digen Aus - und Umbau von Netz - und Speichersystemen  werden ab-
gebaut . 
6.4.3  Massnahmen  
 Erarbeitung von Grundlagen für die Optimierung der Rahmenbedingungen (Beispiele: Vor-
schriften, Leitfäden, Potenzial analysen, Machbarkeitsstudien etc.)  
 Erstellung und U nterstützung von neutralen und qualitativ hochwertigen Informationen für alle 
relevanten Zielgruppen (Publikationen, Webseite, Newsletter etc.)  
 Stärkung der Sensibilisierung der diversen Branchen und anderer zugunsten der Integration 
erneuerbarer Energien (Ratgeber, Success -Stories etc.)  
 Förderung und Unterstützung von innovativen Technologien (Ausarbeitung von innovativen 
Konzepten, Kommunikation etc.)  
 Bestimmung von Hemmnissen und Entwicklung von entsprechenden Massnahmen zusammen 
mit den Partnern  
Energie Schweiz arbeitet bei der Entwicklung dieser Massnahmen verstärkt mit den Branchen sowie 
Vertretern des öffentlichen Sektors oder aus der Privatwirtschaft zusammen, damit die Verbreitung 
der Botschaften von einem Multiplikationseffekt profitieren kann . Wie im Kapitel zuvor ausgeführt, 
ist auch hier die enge Zusammenarbeit mit Branchenverbänden besonders wichtig.  
 
  
                                                      
20 Das zukünftige Schweizer Elektrizitätssystem wird von Solarenergie und Wasserkraft dominiert sein und im Winte r a priori 
deutlich weniger Elektrizität produzieren als im Sommer.  53 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 
 Querschnittsthemen   
Bei den Querschnittsthemen handelt es sich um Themen, die die bereits diskutierten prioritären und 
weiteren Handlungsfelder übergreifen  und damit auch die entsprechende Priorität haben . Dazu ge-
hört insbesondere die Aus - und Weiterbildung der zukünftig notwendigen Fachkräfte in den ver-
schiedenen Handlungsfeldern. Ein weiteres wichtiges Querschnittsthema stellt Städte , Gemeinden,  
Quartiere und Regionen  dar. Die Digitalisierung , der Klimaschutz sowie die Innovation stellen wei-
tere Querschnittsthemen dar.  
7.1 Aus- und Weiterbildung   
7.1.1  Ausgangslange  
Bei der Umsetzung der Ziele der Energiestrategie 2050 spielt die Aus - und Weiterbildung der Fach-
leute eine wichtige Rolle. Das strategische Ziel der Aus - und Weiterbildungsaktivitäten ist, dazu 
beizutragen, dass der Arbeitsmarkt über genügend qualifizierte  Fachkräfte für die Umsetzung der 
Energiestrategie 2050 des Bundes verfügt und das Knowhow und die Handlungskompetenzen in 
den verschiedensten Branchen sichergestellt sind.  
Die Aktivitäten im Themengebiet  Aus- und Weiterbildung leiten sich aus verschieden en Bedürfnis-
sen ab. Erstens orientieren sie sich an den inhaltlichen Schwerpunkten von EnergieSchweiz und an 
den Bedürfnissen der Kantone. Daraus werden die prioritär aus - oder weiterzubildenden Berufe mit 
Energiebezug  abgeleitet, um fehlende Kompetenzen z u beheben oder Wissen aktuell zu halten. 
Zweitens setzt EnergieSchweiz auf eine proaktive Zusammenarbeit mit den Organisationen der Ar-
beitswelt (OdA) und Bildungsinstitutionen. Bei den Zielgruppen handelt es sich in der Regel um 
Lernende von relevanten Ber ufen (b erufliche Grundbildung, BGB), um im Arbeitsmarkt tätige Be-
rufsleute, um Absolventen höherer Berufsbildung (HBB) und Studierende an Fachschulen (b erufs-
orientierte Weiterbildung, WB) sowie um Studierende der Fachhochschulen und Universitäten. Drit-
tens verfolgt EnergieSchweiz Ziele in der Zusammenarbeit mit den allgemeinbildenden Schulen. 
Dazu gehören die Volkschule, Gymnasien, Fachmittelschulen sowie Berufsschulen ( allgemeinbil-
dender Unterricht , ABU ). 
7.1.2  Ziele  
EnergieSchweiz verfolgt im Handlungsfeld  Aus- und Weiterbildung die folgenden Ziele:  
 Die durchgeführten Massnahmen orientieren sich am bestehenden Bildungssystem, basieren 
auf Marktbedürfnissen und sind mit den relevanten Stakeholdern wie OdA, Branchenverbän-
den, Kantonen und Bildungsinstitutionen ko nsolidiert.  
 Die Massnahmen im Handlungsfeld Aus- und Weiterbildung sind erstens  auf die inhaltlichen 
Schwerpunkte von EnergieSchweiz , zweitens auf die Bedürfnisse der Arbeitswelt und drittens 
auf die Aktivitäten der allgemeinbildenden Schulen ausgerichtet.  
 Es gibt  genügend ausgebildete Fachkräfte in Berufen mit Energiebezug.  
 Die vielfältigen Energiet hemen werden im U nterricht auf genommen und Schüler und Schüle-
rinnen sind für den nachhaltigen Umgang mit Energie sensibilisiert.  54 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 7.1.3  Massnahmen  
Zur E rreichung der festgelegten Ziele werden  insbesondere  folgende Massnahmen in Angriff ge-
nommen:  
 Verankerung der konkreten Themen in den Bildungsplänen und Bildungsverordnungen der re-
levanten Berufe (BGB) sowie in den relevanten Prüfungsordnungen der berufso rientierten Wei-
terbildung (HBB /WB): Diese Aufgabe im formalen Bildungsbereich wird in Zusammenarbeit mit 
dem BAFU wahrgenommen. Es werden gleichzeitig Energie - und Ressourcenthemen sowie 
die Klimathematik abgedeckt. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeiten werden «Basis -Analysen» finanziert, 
welche dazu dienen, ein entsprechendes Berufsfeld genauer zu untersuchen und die konkre-
ten Handlungskompetenzen aufzuzeigen. Die Analysen dienen als Grundlage für den formalen 
Berufsbildungsprozess und für die Erarbeitung von Unterric htsmaterialien und Weiterbildungs-
angeboten.  
 Unterstützung des Aufbaus, der Überarbeitung und der Durchführung von zielgruppengerech-
ten nicht -formalen Weiterbildungen (Kurse, CAS -, MAS -Lehrgänge etc.)  
 Unterstützung der Erarbeitung oder Überarbeitung von Bi ldungsmaterialien  
 Unterstützung der Information der Zielgruppen über Aus - und Weiterbildungsangeboten sowie 
die Koordination solcher Angebote unter den verschiedenen Bildungsanbietern  
 Unterstützung von Partnerprojekten im Aus - und Weiterbildungsbereich, we lche dazu beitra-
gen, die Hauptziele zu erreichen.  
 Finanzierung von Bedarfsabklärungen, Aus - und Weiterbildungsbilanzierungen, Marktanaly-
sen, Basis -Analysen und allgemeinen Aus - und Weiterbildungskonzepten  
 Information von Lehrpersonen bezüglich energierelev anter Themen und Bereitstellen von Fak-
tenblättern und Lehrmaterialien via Webseite sowie weiterer Kommunikationskanäle von  
EnergieSchweiz   
 Unterstützung zielführender Schulprojekte externer Partner  
 Unterstützung der Bildung für nachhaltige Entwicklung (BN E) über den Einsitz des Bundes-
amts für Energie im Bestellergremium der Stiftung éducation 21  
  55 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 7.2 Städte, Gemeinden, Quartiere und Regionen   
7.2.1  Ausgangslage  
Viele Schweizer Städte und Gemeinden haben in den letzten zwei bis drei Jahrzehnten in ihrer 
Energie - und Klimapolitik ein hohes Niveau erreicht , etwa als Energiestadt . Sie haben sich eine 
stabile energiepolitische Basis erarbeitet, die heute in ihrer politischen Agenda einen wichtigen Platz 
einnimmt. Fortschrittliche Städte und Gemeinden möchten ihre Energie aktivitäten nun konsequent 
auf die Zielsetzungen der Energiestrategie 2050 und des Pariser Klimaabkommens von 2015 aus-
richten. Diese Ziele sind in den Städten und Gemeinden dabei oft über den direkten Bezug zur 2000 -
Watt-Gesellschaft fest in ihren jeweilig en kommunalen Grundlagen (Gemeinde -Ordnungen, Leitbil-
der, Volksabstimmungen etc.) verankert. Der Absenkpfad der 2000 -Watt -Gesellschaft stellt dabei 
eine direkte «Übersetzung» von Zielen der nationalen Energiestrategie 2050 und internationalen 
CO 2-Abkommen auf kommunaler Ebene dar. Diese energiepolitischen Initiativen können von Städ-
ten und Gemeinden konsequent in integrale Konzepte  (z.B. Smart City)  eingebunden werden. 
Dadurch werden energiepolitische Aktivitäten mit weiteren Themen verknüpft, sowie verschi edene 
Verwaltungseinheiten, Unternehmen und private Stakeholder dabei abgeholt.  
EnergieSchweiz will diese Bestrebungen weiter unterstützen und legt den Fokus primär auf die fort-
schrittlichen Städte und Gemeinde  welche die Energie - und Klimapolitik der Schweiz umsetzen und 
für ihre Bevölkerung und andere Städte und Gemeinden als Vorbild wirken.  Sie sollen dazu motiviert 
werden, mit klaren Zielvorgaben neue Themen anzugehen und mittels einer integralen Sichtweise 
innovative Projekte anzustossen. Das gewonnene Wissen soll anderen Interessenten aktiv zur Ver-
fügung gestellt werden.  
7.2.2  Ziele  
EnergieSchweiz verfolgt für die Städte und Gemeinden die folgenden Ziele:  
 Die Schweizer Gemeinden nutzen ihre sehr guten Voraussetzungen, um für die Ziele der Ener-
giestrategie 2050 einen wirksamen Beitrag zu leisten und im Rahmen ihrer Möglichkeiten ihr 
energie - und klima olitisches Potenzial voll aus zuschöpfen.  
 Energiepolitisch fortschrittliche Gemeinden haben auf der Grun dlage von individuellen Analy-
sen gemeindespezifische Zielsetzungen entwickelt ( z.B. kommunaler Absenkpfad 2000 -Watt -
Gesellschaft entsprechend den Zielen der Energiestrategie 2050) und agieren konsequent ent-
sprechend ihren langfristigen Konzepten.  
 Die Geme inden nehmen ihre Vermittlerrolle und ihre Schnittstellenfunktion konsequent wahr, 
verknüpfen das Energie - und Klima thema mit weiteren Themenkomplexen und binden die un-
terschiedlichen Akteure ein.  
 Das regionale Umfeld wird zwecks energie - und klima strateg ischen Überlegungen mittels in-
terkommunalen Abkommen einbezogen. Die Produktion und der Bezug von erneuerbaren 
Energien sowie die strategische Bündelung von Ressourcen werden auf diese Weise koordi-
niert und auf möglichst nachhaltige Weise genutzt.  
 In der Quartier - und Arealentwicklung geben urban geprägte Gemeinden privaten sowie öffent-
lichen Bauherren klare energetische Zielvorgaben für ihre Projekte vor. Die Gemeinden fordern 
die Nachweise ihrer definierten Zielsetzungen vom Projektentwickler ein.  56 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
  Die G emeinden nehmen ihre Rolle als Vorbild gegenüber lokalen Unternehmen und Privaten 
wahr und üben Einfluss auf das energie - und klima relevante Verhalten der Bewohnerinnen und 
Bewohner aus.  
 Gemeinden, welche das Thema Energie  und Klima  bisher nicht stark beac hteten, verankern eine 
nachhaltige Energie - und Klima politik in der kommunalen Gesetzgebung und setzen diese um.  
 Gemeindespezifische Förderprogramme  werden entwickelt , damit alle in der Energie - und 
Klimapolitik engagierten Städte und Gemeinden angesproche n und angemessen begleitet 
werden.  
7.2.3  Massnahmen  
Städte und Gemeinden mit einer fortschrittlichen sowie ambitionierten Energie - und Klimapolitik ste-
hen im Fokus der Massnahmen von EnergieSchweiz. Während sich EnergieSchweiz auf die Akti-
vierung, Inputberatung  und Projektförderung in den Gemeinden konzentriert, wird die Umsetzung 
der Leistungen für die Gemeinden von privaten Akteuren durchgeführt.  
Um die Ziele zu erreichen, werden insbesondere folgende Massnahmen in Angriff genommen:  
 Unterstützung von kommuna len Projekten, die einen quantifizierbaren Beitrag zur Zielerrei-
chung der Energiestrategie 2050 aufweisen , sowie dem Absenkpfad der 2000 -Watt-Gesell-
schaft und des Smart -City-Konzepts entsprechen.  
 Unterstützung von Städten und Gemeinden im Energiestadt - oder Smart -City-Prozess, falls 
diese die Energie - und Klimastrategie der Schweiz unterstützen: Verbindliche Verankerung auf 
der politischen Ebene unter Einbezug der Verwaltung und der Stakeholder  
 Fokus der Subvention auf Infrastrukturprojekte, in denen die Ge meinden im Entwicklungspro-
zess eine tragende Rolle einnehmen (Wärmeverbund, kommunale Produktion von erneuerba-
ren Energien, etc.).  
 Gemeinden bieten Austauschplattformen zwecks Einbindung der verschiedenen Akteure und 
Wissenstransfer an. EnergieSchweiz bet reibt eine zentrale Wissensplattform für verschiedene 
Akteure im Gemeinde und Städte Umfeld.  
 Setzen von Anreizen zu interkommunalen Zusammenschlüssen von ländlichen Gemeinden zu 
Energie -Regionen und von urban geprägten Gemeinden zu Smart -Regionen  
 Betreibu ng von themenspezifischen Programmen zu Smart -City, Energie -Region und 2000 -
Watt-Areal: Das Programm 2000 -Watt -Areal wird weiterhin mit einem Zertifikat für Grossbau-
projekte geführt. Zudem wird die methodische Grundlage zur 2000 -Watt -Gesellschaft weiterhin  
von EnergieSchweiz gepflegt  
 Multiplikation von fortschrittlichen Konzepten sowie Wissenstransfer in die Breite durch die un-
terstützen Programme  
 Entflechtung und Vereinfachung des generellen Angebots an Programmen, Labels und Instru-
menten für die Unterstü tzung von energiepolitischen Aktivitäten der Gemeinden  
 Definition von quantifizierbaren gemeindespezifischen Zielsetzungen auf der Grundlage von 
individuellen Analysen: Die Gemeinden legen den Weg eigenständig fest, wie die Ziele zu er-
reichen sind.  
  57 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 7.3 Klim aschutz   
Das Thema Klimaschutz, insbesondere die Reduktion der CO 2-Emissionen aus fossilen Brenn - und 
Treibstoffen, weist grosse Überschneidungen mit der Energieeffizienz und den erneuerbaren Ener-
gien auf. Die Energieeffizienz und die Substitution von fossilen durch erneuerbare Energien sind für 
die Erreichung der klimapolitischen Ziele zentral, da rund drei Viertel der Treibhausgasemissionen 
auf energiebedingtes CO 2 zurückzuführen sind.  
Die in den letzten Jahren begonnene projektspezifische Zusammenarb eit der Bundesämter für 
Energie und Umwelt (BFE, BAFU) soll deshalb weiterentwickelt und intensiviert werden. Es ist das 
Ziel der beiden Fachämter, für die Periode 2021 –2030 Synergien von Anfang an bei Informations -, 
Beratungs - und Bildungsaktivitäten verm ehrt zu nutzen, um Energieeffizienz und Klimaschutz wirk-
sam voranzubringen. Ziel ist eine klimaverträgliche Energieversorgung  der Schweiz , das heisst, eine 
Energieversorgung, die ab Mitte Jahrhundert so nahe wie möglich an einer Bilanz von Nu ll Treib-
hausga semissionen ist.  
Eine gut verankerte horizontale Integration von Klimaschutz ist wichtig in den strategischen Zielen 
des Programms  EnergieSchweiz , namentlich in den drei prioritären Handlungsfeldern Gebäude und 
erneuerbare Energie in privaten Haushalten ( siehe Kapitel 3), Mobilität von Privaten und Unterneh-
men ( Kapitel  4) und Anlage n und Prozesse der Industrie ( Kapitel  5) sowie in den weiteren Hand-
lungsfeldern Aus - und Weiterbildung ( Kapitel  7.1), Städte, Gemeinden, Quartier und Regionen ( Ka-
pitel 0) und schliesslich  in der Kommunikation von EnergieSchweiz ( Kapitel 8). Die Verankerung 
von Klimaschutz in der Strategie von EnergieSchweiz ermöglicht eine Gesamtsicht der beiden zent-
ralen  Themen Energie und Klimaschutz.  Sie ist themat isch naheliegend, aus Ressourcensicht ziel-
führend und für die Kommunikation gegenüber Dritten sinnvoll. Für verschiedene Zielgruppen er-
schliesst sich die Rel evanz von Energieeffizienz und e rneuerbarer Energie einfacher , wenn über die 
Klimaziele argumentier t wird.  
7.4 Digitalisierung  
7.4.1  Ausgangslage  
Die Digitalisierung umfasst eine Reihe von IKT -, Hardware - oder Softwaretechnologien, die eine 
große Menge digitaler Daten erzeugen und/oder verwenden, um Wert zu schaffen. Dazu gehören 
beispielsweise vernetzte Geräte  (Internet of Things, IoT), Roboter, Big Data und künstliche Intelli-
genz, API, Cloud - und Edge -Computing, Blockchain -Transaktionen sowie Plattformen, die die Pro-
duzenten und Benutzer vernetzen oder die verschiedene Dienste auf virtuellen Marktplätzen anbie-
ten (Everything as a Service).  
Der Einsatz digitaler Technologien im Energiesektor wird in Zukunft noch schneller voranschreiten, 
da technische Standards Cybersicherheit gewährleisten und klare Regeln für den Datenschutz ent-
wickelt werden. Langfristig wird der Betrieb des dezentralen Stromnetzes der Zukunft, d.h. des in-
telligenten Stromnetzes (Smart Grid) und seiner Konvergenz mit anderen Energienetzen durch di-
gitale Technologien sichergestellt.  58 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 Durch die Entwicklungen der Digitalisierung kann der Stromverb rauch zunehmen. Allerdings wird 
sich EnergieSchweiz bemühen, diesen Effekt zu minimieren. Nichtsdestotrotz bietet die Digitalisie-
rung in den Themengebieten  Energieeffizienz und erneuerbare Energien viele Möglichkeiten. Einige 
davon sind in folgender Liste festgehalten:  
 Energieoptimierung: Dank intelligenten Zählern (Smart Meter) und anderen Sensoren wird es 
nicht nur möglich sein, die Energieflüsse und den Verbrauch angeschlossener Geräte und An-
lagen zu visualisieren, sondern auch detaillierte D aten zu gen erieren, mit welchen Effizienzpo-
tenziale aufgezeigt werden können. Diese Daten werden anschliessend zur Entwicklung digi-
taler Produkte und Dienstleistungen zur Betriebsoptimierung und zur Senkung des Energie-
verbrauchs verwendet. Z udem können Anwendungen zu r Effizienzsteigerung von Wohn - oder 
Geschäftsgebäuden (Smart -Home, Smart -Building) sowie von Produktions - oder Logistikpro-
zessen (Industrie 4.0) in Betracht gezogen werden.  
 Cloud -Dienste: In Haushalten und Büros führt die Miniaturisierung und Effizienzste igerung von 
IKT- und Freizeitelektronikgeräten in Kombination mit digitalen Anwendungen oder Diensten 
für den Fernzugriff zu Energieeinsparungen, da weniger physische Ressourcen benötigt wer-
den, um bestimmte Aufgaben auszuführen.  
 Speicherung und Abstimmung  von Netzwerken: In Gebäuden können große, angeschlossene 
Elektrogeräte (Wärmepumpen, Warmwasserbereiter, Batterien und eventuell  Haushaltsge-
räte) in Bilanzkreisen zusammengefasst werden. Dadurch dienen sie der Stabilisierung  des 
Stromnetzes und vermeiden eine Netze rweiterung. Elektroautos spielen eine Rolle als Spei-
cherelement in einem durch Algorithmen gesteuerten intelligenten Stromnetz.  
 Eigenverbrauch und neue Geschäftsmodelle: In Gebäuden oder Quartieren werden Ener-
gieman agementsysteme den Eigenverbrauch und die Speicherung von lokal erzeugter erneu-
erbarer Energie optimieren und die Integration der Infrastruktur in das intelligente Stromnetz 
sicherstellen. Dank Peer -to-Peer -Transaktionen können die Prosumer ihre überschüss ige 
Energie dann auf speziellen Marktplattformen vermarkten.  
 Intelligente Mobilität: Im Bereich Mobilität bietet die Digitalisierung viel Effizienz potenzial . Es 
werden Lösungen zur Verkehrsoptimierung und zur Reduktion der Anzahl zugelassener Fahr-
zeuge entwickelt. Beispielsweise gibt es multimodale Plattformen, die es den Verbrauchern 
ermöglichen, je nach Bedarf unterschiedliche Verkehrsmittel (Züge, Busse, Autos usw.) zu nut-
zen und nur für die in Anspruch genommenen Dienste zu zahlen.  
 Intelligente Städte: In Städten, Gemeinden und Regionen sorgen neue digitale Dienste für ein 
effizienteres Management von öffentlichen Gebäuden, Infrastruktur, Verkehr, Abfall, Industrie-
dienstleistungen usw.  
 Innovation: In allen Energiebereichen wird die Verfügbarkeit vieler D aten aus unterschiedlichen 
Quellen, kombiniert mit den Möglichkeiten der Bearbeitung durch intelligente Algorithmen, In-
novation en ermöglichen . Durch flexible digitale Lösungen und Skaleneffekte entstehen neue 
Geschäftsmodelle, die Energieeinsparungen einfa cher und vorteilhafter machen. Dazu gehö-
ren zum Beispiel neue Energiedienstleistungen (Contracting, maßgeschneiderte Lösungen 
usw.), die es Einzelpersonen sowie Unternehmen und Behörden ermöglichen, ihren Energie-
verbrauch ohne große finanzielle Investition en zu senken.  59 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 7.4.2  Ziele  
EnergieSchweiz setzt sich die folgenden Ziele:  
 Technologische Trends (nationale und internationale) und digitale Innovationen  werden in Zu-
sammenarbeit mit relevanten Partnern identifiziert , welche Einfluss auf ihre prioritären Hand-
lungsfelder haben.  Dazu gehört auch die Früherkennung von Pfadabhängigkeiten , um zeitnah 
und effizient reagieren zu können.  
 Diejenigen Trends  werden unterstützt, genutzt oder entwickelt , die möglicherweise zu den Zie-
len der Energiestrategie 2050 beitragen.  
7.4.3  Massnahmen  
Für die Erreichung der aufgestellten Ziele setzt EnergieSchweiz insbesondere folgende Massnahmen 
um:  
 Regelmässige Prüfung der Entwicklung von digitalen Technologien und ihrer Auswirkung auf 
Effizienz oder Entwicklung erneuerbarer Energien: Dies b etrifft insbesondere Projekte im Zu-
sammenhang mit Energieoptimierung, Cloud -Diensten, Netzwerkspeicherung und -optimie-
rung, Eigenverbrauch und neuen Geschäftsmodellen, intell igenter Mobilität, intelligenten  Städ-
ten und Innovation.  
 Entwicklung von auf die n euen Trends und Entwicklungen angepassten Sensibilisierungs - und 
Informationskampagnen, die a uf die Bevölkerung oder Unternehmen ausgerichtet sind.  
 Entwicklung von auf die neuen Trends und Entwicklungen angepassten Massnahmen im The-
mengebiet  Aus- und Weit erbildung, z.B. Fachschulungen  
 Entwicklung eines Digitalisierungsradars, der die digitalen Produkte und Dienstleistungen im 
Schweizer Energiesektor beobachtet und präsentiert.  
7.5 Innovation   
7.5.1  Ausgangslage  
EnergieSchweiz  will neues m arktfähig machen und ist bestrebt, Themen und  Projekte mit möglichst 
grossem Potenzial  in den  Themengebieten  Energieeffizienz und erneuerbare Energie zu fördern 
und die Mittel möglichst effizient und effektiv einzusetzen. In einer dynamischen Umgebung braucht 
es dazu einen Innovat ionsprozess , der Chancen und Gefahren frühzeitig erkennt und adressiert. Es 
ist wichtig, dass die Fördermöglichkeiten von EnergieSchweiz möglichst vielen potentiellen Partnern 
bekannt sind, um aus einem breiten Reservoir von Projekten schöpfen zu können.  
Gerade in dynamischen Zeiten ist diese Weitsicht besonders wichtig. Die Geschwindigkeit, mit der 
sich aktuell Technologien, Prozesse und Rahmenbedingungen in der Energiewirtschaft ändern, paart 
sich mit der rasanten Entwicklung der Digitalisierung und führt  zu einer noch höheren Dynamik.  
Im Markt stehen  etablierte Technologien (z.B. f ossile Heizungen) alternativen Technologien gegen-
über (z.B. erneuerbar es Heizen). Diese innovativen Technologien  zu bestimmen und zu fördern , ist 
eine der Aufgaben von EnergieSc hweiz . 60 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 7.5.2  Ziele  
EnergieSchweiz setzt sich die folgende n Ziele:  
 Die besten Projekte am Markt  gewinnen an Sichtbarkeit und werden umgesetzt.  
 Relevante Entwicklungen werden frühzeitig und mit einem genügend langen Outlook wahrge-
nommen, um darauf reagieren zu können.  
7.5.3  Massnahmen  
Quellen der Innovation sind EnergieSchweiz und ihre internen und externen Organisationen:  Das 
Bundesamt für Energie , andere Bundesstellen sowie das Partnernetzwerk von EnergieSchweiz. Der 
Pflege u nd Nutzung dieser Quellen soll  in Zukunf t mehr Gewicht verliehen werden. Bis zu 5  Prozent  
der Ressourcen von EnergieSchweiz sollen dafür aufgewendet werden. EnergieSchweiz setzt  ins-
besondere  folgende Massnahmen  um:  
 Etablierung eines Scoutings , welches zukünftige Entwicklungen möglichst frühzeit ig erkennt 
und beurteilt. Damit kann EnergieSchweiz gegebenenfalls rechtzeitig positive Entwicklungen 
unterstützen und auf Entwicklungen  aufmerksam machen,  die nicht im Sinne der Energiestra-
tegie 2050 wirken . 
 Optimierung und Ausweitung des Partnernetzwerkes , um alle relevanten Organisationen und 
Personen in den Innovationsprozess mit einzuschliessen.  
 Etablierung eines EnergieSchweiz -Innovationsprozesses, der die effiziente Sammlung und Pri-
orisierung der Innovationen sicherstellt.  
 Verstärkte  Nutzung von themenspezifischen Projektausschreibungen und Wettbewerben, wel-
che nicht nur den Ideentrichter füllen,  sondern die Möglichkeit der Projektförderung breiter be-
kannt machen . 
 Aktives Abschliessen von bestehenden Projekten , um Raum für neue Projek te zu schaffen . Neue 
Förderungen werden schon von Anfang an als Projekt mit einem Abschlussdatum geplant . 
Das intensivierte Innovationsmanagement ist auch ein Instrument  für die regelmässige Neu-Priori-
sierung der Handlungsfelder und Massnahmen von EnergieS chweiz.    61 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 
 Kommunikation  
Die Kommunikation von EnergieSchweiz stützt sich auf Artikel 47 des Energiegesetzes und infor-
miert, sensibilisiert und berät die Öffentlichkeit (Private und Unternehmen) und die Behörden über 
die freiwilligen Möglichkeiten einer sparsamen und effizienten Energienutzung sowie über die Nut-
zung erneuerbarer Energien. Dabei informiert EnergieSchweiz neben der breiten Öffentlichkeit auch 
gezielt spezifische Anspruch sgruppen , wie z um Beispiel Hauseigentümerinnen und Hauseigentü-
mer, Architektinnen und Architekten oder Gemeindeverwaltungen. Dies geschieht in der Regel zu-
sammen mit externen Partnern.  
8.1 Ausgangslage  
Die Kommunikation von EnergieSchweiz ist über die letzten Jahre anspruch svoller und damit rele-
vanter geworden. Der rasche Takt des Technol ogie- und Knowh ow-Wandels lässt Wissen schneller 
veralten. Das bestätigen Umfragen , wie z.B. der Kundenbarometer der HSG. Die Realisation von 
Projekten in den Themengebieten  Energieeffizienz  und erneuerbare  Energie n wird komplexer und 
dadurch steigt auch der Kommunikationsa ufwand , um die Inhalte zielgruppen gerecht zu vermitteln. 
Hier wird der Einbezug von Mittlern , wie z.B. Verbänden , immer wichtiger.  
Gleichzeitig nehmen  die Vielfalt an Kommunikationsmöglichkeiten und die Ansprüche der Zielgrup-
pen zu. Zielgruppen suchen ihre Inhalte nicht mehr über Marken,  sondern über Google und Social 
Media und bewegen sich in individuellen Communities. Google, YouTube und die verschied enen 
Social -Media -Kanäle , wie Facebook, Instagram, Twitter etc. , haben sich in unserem Alltag etabliert 
und sind nicht mehr wegzudenken aus der heutigen Mediennutzung. Google führt heutzutage 91. 5 
Prozent  aller Internetsuchen durch. Von diesen werden 60 Prozent  über Mobilgeräte durchgeführt . 
Aufgrund der vielfältigen Suchmöglichkeiten gelangen die User direkt zu spezifischen Subseiten 
und nicht auf Einstiegsseiten.  
Der enge Fokus auf einzelne Kommunikationsk anäle scheint immer weniger zielführend . Die Gren-
zen zwischen Facebook, Instagram,  dem Facebook Messenger und bald auch WhatsApp ver-
schwimmen für User immer mehr. Grundsätzlich geht es daher nicht mehr um Plattformen, sondern 
um den Einzelinhalt, der idealerweise über alle verfügbaren Plattformen verbrei tet wird und dadurch 
das User -Engagement erhöht.  
Fortschrittliche System e können heutzutage das User -Engagement und die am besten funktionie-
renden Inhalte in Realtime erheben. Diese Einblicke ( Insights ) führen zu einer laufenden Anpassung 
der Inhalte. Das bedeutet, dass funktionierende Inhalte stetig optimiert und nicht Anklang findende 
Inhalte verworfen werden . Die Zukunft führt gemäss der Studie „Medientrends der Deutschschweiz 
2018“ von SRF über digitales Storytelling. Ein  wirklicher  Mehrwert für die Nutzerinnen und Nutzer 
wird durch qualitativ hochwertige n Inhalt  generiert . 
Durch diese Entwicklungen ändert sich die Relevanz von EnergieSchweiz. Nicht mehr die Bekannt-
heit de r Marke,  sondern deren  Image  (Vertrauen, Neutralität , Relevanz ) ist wichtig . Die einzelnen  
Projekte müssen bei den entsprechenden Zielgruppen bekannt sein, bzw. die benötigten Inhalte 62 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 müssen über suchoptimierte Plattformen einfach und gezielt gefunden werden (search engine opti-
mization SEO/ search engine adverti sing SEA) .  
Eine wachsende  Herausforderung stellen die politischen Sensibilität en der kommunizierten Inhalte  
dar. Sie stehen im Spannungsfeld von Befürwortern und Gegnern der Energiestrategie  2050. Spe-
ziell im Bereich Kommunikation kann das zu Angriffen führen.  
Die Erfahrung zeigt, dass gemeinsame Themen über Partnerschaften (Public Private Partnership) 
effizienter und effektiver vermittelt  werden können. Dabei übernehmen die Partner ein en relevanten 
Anteil der Kosten, stellen ihr Netzwerk zur  Verfügung u nd bringen ihr Knowh ow ein. Die Partner-
schaft selbst zeigt auch, dass für den Markt relevante Themen adressiert werden.  
8.2 Ziele   
EnergieSchweiz verfolgt die folgenden Ziele:  
 Die Kommunikation ist weitgehend an den prioritären Handlungsfeldern orientiert . 
 Die Kommunikation ist z ielgruppenorientiert in Inhalt, Sprache und Kanäle  (Relevanz)  aber frei 
zugänglich . 
 Information  wird effizient und verhaltensorientiert vermittelt . 
 Die Kommunikation unterstützt die Werte Neutralität, Vertrauen, Professionalität, und Relevanz.  
 Die Kommunikation zieht wo sinnvoll die Partner (andere Ämter, Verbände, Vereine) mit ein . 
 Alle geförderten Projekte vermitteln ihre Erfahrungen aktiv , um einen möglichst breiten Nutzen 
der Projekterfahrungen sicher zu stelle n.  
 Die Kommunikation  ist flexibel und richtet sich rasch an neuen Bedürfnissen und Kommunika-
tionsmöglichkeiten (Kanäle n, Partner n, Messresultate n) aus .  
8.3 Massnahmen  
Um die oben dargestellten Ziele zu erreichen, werden insbesondere folgende Massnahmen in An-
griff genommen:  
 Festlegung der Kommunikationsplanung in Abstimmung mit den Verantwortlichen der Hand-
lungsfelder und laufende Anpassung an sich verändernde Kommunikationsbedürfnisse  
 Definition der Zielgruppen und Einordnung dieser bezüglich Verhaltensoptionen (Bedürfnisse 
und Hemmnisse) f ür jede s Kommunikation sprojekt . Dafür stehen entsprechende Hilfsmittel be-
reit, u.a. Massnahmen zur Beseitigung von allfällige n Hemmnissen.  
 Orientierung der Informationsbereitstellung a m Suchverhalten der Zielgruppen:  Entsprechend e 
Neugestaltung des Webangebot s, erleichterte Suche und Auffindbarkeit (Themencluster, 
SEO) und Lenkung der Aufmerksamkeit auf viel gesuchten Content (SEA)  
 Allfällige Ergänzung der digitale n Informationsvermittlung durch analoge Medien (Inserate, Zei-
tung, Broschüren) und einer Infol ine (Anfragen per Telefon oder E -Mail) 
 Führung der digitale n Kommunikation von EnergieSchweiz unter der Prämisse Mobile First : 
Dies entspricht h eute der mit Abstand häufigsten Nutzungsart.   63 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
  Laufende Analyse der Nutzung des Inform ationsangebot s und entsprechende Anpassung der 
Kommunikation  
 Übernahme von übergeordneten Kommunikationsaufgaben durch den  Brand EnergieSchweiz 
als Dach - und Qualitätsmarke (Rolle als Absender ).  
 Prioritäre Behandlung von  Projekte n mit allfälligen eigenen  Projektmarken : Diese können auch 
eine Koproduktion mit Partnern sein bzw. können deren Brand mit einbeziehen.  
 Bevorzugung von p artnerschaftliche r Realisation,  um Effizienz und Effektivität zu gewährleisten.  
 Verstärkter Einbezug von Social Media in die Inf ormationsvermittlung für ein z ielgruppenorien-
tiertes Vorgehen:  Social Media wird dabei auch als Sensor für die Bedürfnisse der Zielgruppen 
eingesetzt . Die dazu notwendigen Fähigkeiten werden intern und extern aufgebaut.  
 
 
  64 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 
 Zusammenarbeit mit Partnern  
EnergieSchweiz setzt die Massnahmen in der Regel in Zusammenarbeit mit Partnern aus der Privat-
wirtschaft, Verbänden und der öffentlichen Hand um. Dazu führt EnergieSchweiz derzeit ein Portfolio 
von rund 800 Projekten. Die Zusammenarbeit ist notwendig, um d ie Ziele von EnergieSchweiz über-
haupt erst zu erreichen. Zusammen mit den Partnern bildet das Programm die wichtigste zentrale 
Plattform in der Schweiz, in der sich die Akteure für Information, Beratung und Aus - und Weiterbildung 
im Bereich Energie vernetz en und untereinander koordinieren.  
Partner von EnergieSchweiz zeichnen sich durch folgende Eigenschaften aus:  
 Begründete Bereitschaft und Interessen: Sie sind bereits in den Handlungsfeldern von Ener-
gieSchweiz aktiv oder sind interessiert und motiviert, da rin Massnahmen zu entwickeln.  
 Stellenwert bei Zielgruppen: Sie verfügen über wichtige Kanäle, um mit grosser Reichweite auf 
Zielgruppen (Endkunden sowie allenfalls auf Mittler und Multiplikatoren) zuzugehen.  
 Know -How: Sie verfügen über wichtige Kenntnisse und Fähigkeiten in einem Handlungsfeld 
von EnergieSchweiz (Technologien, Märkte, Prozesse, u.a.).  
 Finanzielle und personelle Ressourcen: Sie verfügen über finanzielle und personelle Ressour-
cen und entwickeln Aktivitäten, die entweder ohne Mittel von Energi eSchweiz finanziert sind, 
oder welche von EnergieSchweiz ergänzend finanziert werden.  
Nicht zwingend Partner sind somit: die einzelnen Zielgruppen der Aktivitäten von EnergieSchweiz (Pri-
vate, Unternehmen, öffentliche Hand); Auftrag - oder Subventionsnehmer,  die punktuell mit Energie-
Schweiz Projekte durchführen oder für EnergieSchweiz punktuell Leistungen erbringen. Auch gilt wei-
terhin das Projekt - und nicht Agenturmodell, d.h. Partner engagieren sich mit EnergieSchweiz in zeit-
lich und thematisch abgegrenzten  Projekten.  
Von besonderer Bedeutung sind für EnergieSchweiz Akteure, die in den zentralen Handlungsfeldern 
tätig sind bzw. sein könnten oder die besonders geeignet sind, Innovationen auszulösen. Energie-
Schweiz wird hierzu proaktiv mögliche neue Partner a nsprechen. Interessierte Verbände und Stellen 
können laufend mit EnergieSchweiz Kontakt aufnehmen.  
EnergieSchweiz bietet den Partnern eine Reihe von Vorteilen:  
 Die Partner sind Teil eines Netzwerks und profitieren vom fachlichen Austausch, dem Vermei-
den vo n Doppelspurigkeiten und der Nutzung von Synergien.  
 EnergieSchweiz erhöht die Sichtbarkeit und Glaubwürdigkeit der Aktivitäten von Partnern (z.B. 
als Patronat).  
 EnergieSchweiz leistet einen Beitrag zur Sicherung der Qualität der Projekte.  
 Wo nötig kann Ene rgieSchweiz einzelne Projekte mit Förderbeiträgen unterstützen oder ein-
zelne Grundlagen erarbeiten lassen.  
 Partner haben die Möglichkeit, an den Themen von EnergieSchweiz mitzuarbeiten. Energie-
Schweiz stellt den Partnern auch die langfristigen und strategi schen Themen rund um die Wei-
terentwicklung der Handlungsfelder und Querschnittsthemen zur Diskussion.  
 Und schliesslich werden Partner auf weitere Angebote des BFE hingewiesen (z.B. Veranstal-
tungen, Referate).  
EnergieSchweiz ist politisch neutral und verfolgt Partnerschaften breit und in Hinblick auf die Ziele und 
Qualität von Projekten und des Austausches. Gegenüber den Partnern setzt EnergieSchweiz auf offene 
und verbindliche Kommunikation, auf transparente und klare Abläufe sowie auf Gleichbehandlun g. 65 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 
 Anhang  
10.1 Tabellenverzeichnis  
Tabelle 1: Prioritäre Handlungsfelder EnergieSchweiz 2021 –2030 nach Massnahmen der 
Energiestrategie 2050 (Botschaft vom 4. September 2013, BBl 2013 7561) und nach Zielg ruppen 
Private, Unternehmen sowie öffentliche Hand.  8 
Tabelle 2: Prioritäre Handlungsfelder EnergieSchweiz 2021 –2030 nach Massnahmen der 
Energiestrategie 2050 (Botschaft vom 4. September 2013, BBl 2013 7561) und na ch den 
Zielgruppen Private, Unternehmen sowie öffentliche Hand. Die Prozentzahlen in Klammern 
stellen den anteiligen Energieverbrauch des Handlungsfeldes dar.  11 
Tabelle 3: Anteile von grossen, mittleren und kleinen Unternehmen am Stromverbrauch  37 
 
10.2 Ausführliches Inhaltsverzeichnis  
 
Zusammenfassung  ................................ ................................ ................................ ..............................  2 
 Einleitung  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...............................  6 
1.1 Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ..........................  6 
1.2 Zweck der Programmstrategie  ................................ ................................ ................................ . 7 
1.3 Gliederung  ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................  7 
1.4 Prozesse zur Definition der prioritären Handlungsfelder:  Erstellung Produktstrategie und 
Ressourcenallokation  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...............  7 
 Eckpfeiler EnergieSchweiz 2021 –2030  ................................ ................................ ...............  9 
2.1 Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..........  9 
2.2 SWOT -Analyse  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 10 
2.3 Strategie  ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .11 
 Gebäude und erneuerbare Energien in privaten Haushalten  ................................ .........  14 
3.1 Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 14 
3.1.1  Energieverbrauch  ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 14 
3.1.2  Trends  ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ....14 
3.1.3  Potenziale  ................................ ................................ ................................ .............................. 15 
3.1.4  Hemmnisse  ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 16 
3.1.5  Energie - und klimapolitische Ziele und Massnahmen  ................................ ........................... 17 66 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 3.1.6  Verbleibende Herausforderungen  ................................ ................................ .......................... 18 
3.2 Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 19 
3.2.1  Effizienzziele  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 19 
3.2.2  Produktionsziele  ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 19 
3.2.3  Verh alten der verschiedenen Akteure  ................................ ................................ .................... 20 
3.3 Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 21 
 Mobilität von Privaten und Unternehmen  ................................ ................................ .........  24 
4.1 Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 24 
4.1.1  Energieverbrauch  ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 24 
4.1.2  Trends  ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ....25 
4.1.3  Potenziale  ................................ ................................ ................................ .............................. 26 
4.1.4  Hemmnisse  ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 27 
4.1.5  Energie - und klimapolitische Ziele und Massnahmen  ................................ ........................... 28 
4.1.6  Verbleibende Herausforderungen  ................................ ................................ .......................... 28 
4.2 Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 29 
4.3 Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 30 
4.3.1  Massnahmen Personenmobilität von Privaten  ................................ ................................ ......31 
4.3.2  Massnahmen Personen - und Gütermobilität im Unternehmen ................................ .............. 33 
4.3.3  Massnahmen zur Förderung von Innovationen  ................................ ................................ .....35 
4.3.4  Synergien mit Aktivitäten und Massnahmen weiterer Handlungsfelder und Schwerpunkte 
von EnergieSchweiz  ................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 35 
 Anlagen und Prozesse in Industrie und Dienstleistungen  ................................ .............  36 
5.1 Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 36 
5.1.1  Energieverbrauch  ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 36 
5.1.2  Trends  ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ....38 
5.1.3  Potenziale  ................................ ................................ ................................ .............................. 38 
5.1.4  Hemmnisse  ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 39 
5.1.5  Energie - und klimapolitische Ziele und Massnahmen  ................................ ........................... 39 
5.1.6  Verbleibende Herausforderungen  ................................ ................................ .......................... 40 
5.2 Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 41 
5.2.1  Unternehmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 41 67 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 5.2.2  Mittler und Multiplikatoren  ................................ ................................ ................................ ......42 
5.2.3  Beitrag zu den energie - und klimapolitischen Zielen  ................................ ............................. 43 
5.3 Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 43 
5.3.1  Massnahmen für grosse Unternehmen  ................................ ................................ .................. 43 
5.3.2  Massnahmen für mittlere Unternehmen  ................................ ................................ ................. 44 
5.3.3  Massnahmen für kleine Unternehmen  ................................ ................................ ................... 45 
 Weitere Handlungsfelder  ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 46 
6.1 Gebäude und erneuerbare Energien in Industrie und Dienstleistungen  ................................ 46 
6.1.1  Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 46 
6.1.2  Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 47 
6.1.3  Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 47 
6.2 Elektrogerät e und Beleuchtungen in privaten Haushalten  ................................ ..................... 47 
6.2.1  Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 47 
6.2.2  Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 48 
6.2.3  Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 49 
6.3 Grossanlagen für erneuerbare Energien  ................................ ................................ ............... 49 
6.3.1  Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 49 
6.3.2  Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 50 
6.3.3  Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 50 
6.4 Netze und Speicherung ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 51 
6.4.1  Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 51 
6.4.2  Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 52 
6.4.3  Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 52 
 Querschnittsthemen  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...........  53 
7.1 Aus- und Weiterbildung  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 53 
7.1.1  Ausgangslange  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 53 
7.1.2  Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 53 
7.1.3  Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 54 
7.2 Städte, Gemeinden, Quartiere und Regionen  ................................ ................................ .......55 
7.2.1  Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 55 
7.2.2  Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 55 68 
Programmstrategie Energie -Schweiz 2021 bis 20 30 
 
 
 
 7.2.3  Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 56 
7.3 Klimaschutz  ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 57 
7.4 Digitalisierung  ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 57 
7.4.1  Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 57 
7.4.2  Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 59 
7.4.3  Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 59 
7.5 Innovation  ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 59 
7.5.1  Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 59 
7.5.2  Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 60 
7.5.3  Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 60 
 Kommunikation  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................  61 
8.1 Ausgangslage  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 61 
8.2 Ziele ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 62 
8.3 Massnahmen  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 62 
 Zusammenarbeit mit Partnern  ................................ ................................ ...........................  64 
 Anhang  ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ . 65 
10.1  Tabellenverzeichnis  ................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 65 
10.2  Ausführliches Inhaltsverzeichnis  ................................ ................................ ............................ 65 
 SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
ENERGY STRATEGY 2050 ONCE
THE NEW ENERGY ACT IS IN FORCE
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
 2CONTENTS
1.Current status of Energy Strategy 2050
2.New Energy Act
3.Electricity Networks StrategySWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
 3CURRENT STATUS OF
ENERGY STRATEGY 2050
4 September 2013 Federal Council adopts Dispatch 
to Parliament on new Energy Act
30 September 2016 Final vote in Parliament
21 May 2017 Referendum
1 January 2018 Entry into force of revision of 
applicable legislation*
* The revised law on the federal direct tax enters into force the 1 January 2020.SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
 4ENERGY STRATEGY 2050
FURTHER DOSSIERS
Energy research
“Coordinated Energy Research in Switzerland” action plan –
Swiss Competence Centres for Energy Research
Innovation promotion
Promotion of pilot, demonstration and flagship projects
by the SFOE
Market launch support by SwissEnergy
Competitive tenders
Parliamentary Initiative 12.400
Increase in network surcharge to 1.5 cents/kWh
Partial to full refund for companies with high electricity 
consumption
Regulation governing own consumption
0500100015002000250030003500400045005000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020GWhRenewable energy –electricity (excludin ghydropower)
Solar (photovoltaics)
Geothermal energy
Wind
Wood
Biogas
Waste (50% renewable)SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
 5NEW ENERGY ACT:
THREE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
Measures to increase energy efficiency
Buildings
Mobility
Industry
Appliances
Measures to increase the use of renewable energy
Promotion
Improvement of legal framework
Withdrawal from nuclear energy
No new general licences
Step-by-step withdrawal –safety as sole criterion
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
Average per capita energy consumption
Reduction versus level in 2000
-16% in 2020
-43% in 2035
Average per capita electricity consumption
Reduction versus level in 2000
-3% in 2020
-13% in 2035
6NEW ENERGY ACT:
ENERGY EFFICIENCY –GUIDELINES
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
Average domestic production of renewable energy 
excluding hydropower
in 2020: 4’400 GWh
in 2035: 11’400 GWh
Hydropower
37’400 GWh in 2035
7NEW ENERGY ACT:
RENEWABLE ENERGY –GUIDELINES
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
Network surcharge for promotion of electricity from 
renewable energy, energy efficiency and 
improvement of quality of bodies of water
new surcharge: 2.3 cents/kWh
including 0.2 cents for market premium to existing large 
hydropower plants
8NEW ENERGY ACT:
NETWORK SURCHARGE
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
Use of network surcharge (2.3 
cents/kWh)
Timeframe: For the duration of market 
premium for large hydropower plants 
(2018 to 2022), i.e. reduced one -time 
remuneration, geothermal energy 
contributions, investment contributions for 
small hydropower plants and biomass
9NEW ENERGY ACT:
NETWORK SURCHARGE –USE
Feed -in remuneration
1.2 cents per kWh
One-time remuneration for 
photovoltaics
0.2 cents per kWhContributions towards 
investments in small -scale 
hydropower and biomass
0.03 cents per kWhContributions towards 
investments in new large -
scale hydropower plants 
0.1 cents per kWhMarket premium for existing 
large -scale hydropower 
plants 
0.2 cents per kWhImprovement of quality of 
bodies of water 
0.1 cents per kWhRefund of network surcharge
0.3 cents per kWhCompetitive tenders
0.1 cents per kWhContributions and 
guarantees for 
geothermal 
exploration
0.07 cents per 
kWhSWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
Lower prerequisites for refund to companies with 
high electricity consumption
Repeal of requirement to use part of refunded network 
surcharge for energy -efficiency measures
Old Energy Act:
At least 20% of the refunded amount must be used for energy -efficiency 
measures.
10NEW ENERGY ACT:
NETWORK SURCHARGE –REFUND
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
Changeover from current feed -in remuneration at 
cost scheme to feed -in remuneration with direct 
marketing
Better market integration
Direct marketing as basic principle, exemptions for small 
facilities
11NEW ENERGY ACT:
PROMOTION SYSTEM –DIRECT MARKETING 
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
Limitation of promotion in legislation
With effect from the sixth year after entry into force of the 
initial package of measures, no new commitments in the 
feed-in premium scheme
With effect from 2031, no new investment contributions / 
one-time remuneration
12NEW ENERGY ACT:
LIMITATION OF PROMOTION
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
Market premium for existing power plants
Compensation of difference between production costs and 
lower market price
Power plants receive a premium of max. 1 cent/kWh for 
electricity they sell on the free market below production cost
Financing via network surcharge (0.2 cents/kWh)
Investment contributions for new power plants
Amount to be specified on a case -by-case basis; max. 40% 
of recoverable investment costs
Financing via network surcharge (max. 0.1 cents/kWh)
13NEW ENERGY ACT:
LARGE -SCALE HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
Lower limit for promotion of small -scale hydropower 
production: 1 MW
Only hydropower production facilities with an output of at 
least 1 MW will be able to participate in the feed -in 
remuneration scheme
Exceptions apply for facilities with low environmental impacts
14NEW ENERGY ACT:
SMALL -SCALE HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION 
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
The use and continued expansion of renewable 
energy are in Switzerland’s national interest
Improved basis for weighing up interests
Shift of focus in favour of renewable energy
Exclusion of new facilities in biotopes of national importance 
and in certain nature reserves
15NEW ENERGY ACT:
NATIONAL INTEREST
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
Renewable energy: shortening and streamlining
Cantons must endeavour to speed up licensing procedures
Federal government as single point of contact
Deadline for assessments by the Federal Commission for the 
Protection of Nature and Cultural Heritage
Networks: acceleration of licensing procedure
Shortening of appeals procedure thanks to restriction on 
access to the Federal Supreme Court
Official time limits for sectoral plan and planning approval 
procedures
16NEW ENERGY ACT:
LICENSING PROCEDURES
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
Partial earmarking of revenue from CO2-levy for 
improving energy -efficiency in buildings
Increase in upper limit from the present -day 300 million to 
450 million SFr./annum (as before 1/3 of revenue)
Increase in CO2-levy as before if interim targets are not 
reached (current levy 96 SFr./tonne of CO2)
Modification of “Buildings” programme
Payout in the form of global contributions; cantons 
responsible for implementation
New requirements placed on the cantons
17NEW ENERGY ACT:
BUILDING PROGRAMME
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
Higher taxincentives forimproving energy
efficiency in buildings
Option ofallocating energy -efficiency investment costs to
thetwofollowing taxperiods
Taxdeduction ofdemolition costs when replacing old
buildings
18NEW ENERGY ACT:
TAX INCENTIVES FOR BUILDING RENOVATION
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
More stringent emission regulations for cars
Reduction to 95 g CO2/km by the end of 2020
Harmonisation with the EU
Extension of emission regulations to utility vehicles 
and light semi -trailers 
Reduction to 147 g CO2/km by the end of 2020
Old CO2 Act:
Reduction of emissions to 130 g CO2/km by the end of 2015 
19NEW ENERGY ACT:
MOBILITY
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
Basis for introduction of Smart Metering
Clear framework conditions for introduction of Smart 
Metering
Intelligent control and adjustment mechanisms
20NEW ENERGY ACT:
SMART METERING
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
No new general licences for nuclear power plants 
No ban on nuclear technology
Continued operation of existing power plants as long as their 
safety is guaranteed
Long -term operation to be regulated by Ordinance
Reprocessing of spent fuel elements 
Ban instead of the existing moratorium
Extension of moratorium until June 2020 (separate 
regulation in effect)
21NEW ENERGY ACT:
WITHDRAWAL FROM NUCLEAR ENERGY 
SWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
 22ELECTRICITY NETWORKS STRATEGY:
CURRENT SITUATION
Need for action…
Congestion in the transmission network, need for 
renovation
Increasingly decentralised energy supply structure
… but slow progress
Various conflicts of interest
Insufficient transparency of processes
Lack of understanding among the general population
Lack of social acceptance
Source: SwissgridSWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
 23ELECTRICITY NETWORKS STRATEGY:
STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
Source: SwissgridObjective of revision
Availability of the right network at the right time
Key points
Criteria for further development 
of electricity networks
Optimisation of licensing procedures 
for transmission line projects
Criteria for decision concerning 
use of cabling or overhead lines
Better acceptance of transmission line projectsSWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
 24ELECTRICITY NETWORKS STRATEGY: 
STATUS OF DEBATE
Source: Swissgrid13 April 2016 Adoption by Federal Council 
of Dispatch to Parliament 
15 December 2017 Adoption by Parliament in 
final voteSWISS FEDERAL OFFICE OF ENERGY  ▪MEDIA AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS DIVISION  ▪18 JANUARY 2018
 25FURTHER INFORMATION
ENERGIESTRATEGIE2050.CH
BFE.ADMIN.CH

In [ ]:
# Importing relevant libraries needed for GPT and set parameters
try:
    import openai
except:
    !pip install openai
    import openai
Collecting openai
  Downloading openai-1.3.5-py3-none-any.whl (220 kB)
     ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 220.8/220.8 kB 3.3 MB/s eta 0:00:00
Requirement already satisfied: anyio<4,>=3.5.0 in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (from openai) (3.7.1)
Requirement already satisfied: distro<2,>=1.7.0 in /usr/lib/python3/dist-packages (from openai) (1.7.0)
Collecting httpx<1,>=0.23.0 (from openai)
  Downloading httpx-0.25.2-py3-none-any.whl (74 kB)
     ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 75.0/75.0 kB 4.3 MB/s eta 0:00:00
Requirement already satisfied: pydantic<3,>=1.9.0 in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (from openai) (1.10.13)
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Requirement already satisfied: idna>=2.8 in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (from anyio<4,>=3.5.0->openai) (3.4)
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Requirement already satisfied: exceptiongroup in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (from anyio<4,>=3.5.0->openai) (1.1.3)
Requirement already satisfied: certifi in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (from httpx<1,>=0.23.0->openai) (2023.7.22)
Collecting httpcore==1.* (from httpx<1,>=0.23.0->openai)
  Downloading httpcore-1.0.2-py3-none-any.whl (76 kB)
     ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 76.9/76.9 kB 7.3 MB/s eta 0:00:00
Collecting h11<0.15,>=0.13 (from httpcore==1.*->httpx<1,>=0.23.0->openai)
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Installing collected packages: h11, httpcore, httpx, openai
ERROR: pip's dependency resolver does not currently take into account all the packages that are installed. This behaviour is the source of the following dependency conflicts.
llmx 0.0.15a0 requires cohere, which is not installed.
llmx 0.0.15a0 requires tiktoken, which is not installed.
Successfully installed h11-0.14.0 httpcore-1.0.2 httpx-0.25.2 openai-1.3.5
In [ ]:
import os

## API Key
# Cynthia's API key here, please use your own key to run this cell
API_KEY= "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"

os.environ['OPENAI_API_KEY'] = API_KEY
openai.api_key = os.getenv("OPENAI_API_KEY")

## OpenAI API parameters
# model = "gpt-3.5-turbo" # 4K tokens
# model = "gpt-3.5-turbo-16k" # 16K tokens
model4 = "gpt-4"
max_tokens = 2048
n = 1
stop = None
temperature = 0.5
In [ ]:
energy_links = 'https://www.eda.admin.ch/aboutswitzerland/en/home/wirtschaft/energie/energiepolitik.html, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CO2_Act_(Switzerland), \
https://www.fedlex.admin.ch/eli/cc/2004/723/en'
In [ ]:
prompt1 = "I want to extract and summarize the energy related policies for Switzerland. I will provide you with several weblinks, \
and you will create a list of policy summary of how Switzerland implemented or plan their energy usage or other relative policies related to energy. \
Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text and website. Some of the content may not in English, \
but you should also read them and give the answer in English. You should not include any personal opinions \
or interpretations in your summary, but rather focus on objectively presenting the information from the report. Please ensure that your summary is clear, \
concise, and accurately reflects the content of the \
original text and website. The website links is: '{input1}'.".format(input1 = energy_links)

# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt1[:min(len(prompt1),40000)]
Out[ ]:
"I want to extract and summarize the energy related policies for Switzerland. I will provide you with several weblinks, and you will create a list of policy summary of how Switzerland implemented or plan their energy usage or other relative policies related to energy. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text and website. Some of the content may not in English, but you should also read them and give the answer in English. You should not include any personal opinions or interpretations in your summary, but rather focus on objectively presenting the information from the report. Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, and accurately reflects the content of the original text and website. The website links is: 'https://www.eda.admin.ch/aboutswitzerland/en/home/wirtschaft/energie/energiepolitik.html, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CO2_Act_(Switzerland), https://www.fedlex.admin.ch/eli/cc/2004/723/en'."
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the first prompt
response1 = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful  assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt1[:min(len(prompt1),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput1 = response1.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput1)
After reviewing the provided links, here's a summary of Switzerland's energy-related policies:

1. Energy Strategy 2050: Switzerland's Federal Council developed the "Energy Strategy 2050" in response to the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011. The strategy aims to reduce energy consumption, increase energy efficiency, and promote renewable energies. It also plans to gradually phase out nuclear power. The strategy is based on amending the Energy Act (EnA) and implementing a series of measures, including building regulations, requirements for appliances, and support for renewable energies.

2. CO2 Act: The CO2 Act in Switzerland aims to reduce CO2 emissions and contribute to global efforts to limit climate change. The act was first introduced in 1999 and has been revised multiple times to set stricter emission targets. The most recent revision in 2021 set a goal to reduce CO2 emissions by 50% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The act includes measures such as a CO2 levy on fossil fuels, emission standards for cars, and a climate cent on airline tickets.

3. Promotion of Renewable Energy: Switzerland promotes the use of renewable energy through feed-in tariffs and investment aid. The government supports the production of electricity from hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal energy, as well as from biomass and waste. The goal is to increase the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

4. Energy Efficiency: Switzerland has implemented various measures to improve energy efficiency. For example, the government has set minimum energy performance standards for appliances and vehicles, and introduced building regulations to reduce energy consumption in buildings. The government also promotes the use of energy-efficient technologies and practices in industries.

5. Nuclear Energy Policy: Switzerland has decided to gradually phase out nuclear energy. The country will not build new nuclear power plants and will shut down existing ones at the end of their safe operational life. The government is also investing in research and development of new energy technologies as alternatives to nuclear power.

6. International Cooperation: Switzerland is actively involved in international energy cooperation. The country is a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and participates in various international energy forums and initiatives. Switzerland also supports energy projects in developing countries through its international cooperation programs. 

7. Regulatory Framework: The Swiss Federal Electricity Commission (ElCom) is responsible for regulating the electricity market, ensuring non-discriminatory access to the grid, and monitoring electricity supply security. The Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) is responsible for implementing the government's energy policy.

In conclusion, Switzerland's energy policies focus on reducing energy consumption, promoting renewable energies, improving energy efficiency, phasing out nuclear power, and reducing CO2 emissions. The country has set clear targets and implemented various measures to achieve these goals.
In [ ]:
prompt2 = "Next, I want to extract and summarize the energy related policies for Switzerland based on some text documents. I will provide you with several text, \
and you will create a list of policy summary of how Switzerland implemented or plan their energy usage or other relative policies related to energy. \
Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. \
Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text and website. Some of the content may not in English, \
but you should also read them and give the answer in English. You should not include any personal opinions \
or interpretations in your summary, but rather focus on objectively presenting the information from the report. Please ensure that your summary is clear, \
concise, and accurately reflects the content of the original text: '{input2}'.".format(input2 = swiss_energy_text)

# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt2[:min(len(prompt1),40000)]
Out[ ]:
"Next, I want to extract and summarize the energy related policies for Switzerland based on some text documents. I will provide you with several text, and you will create a list of policy summary of how Switzerland implemented or plan their energy usage or other relative policies related to energy. Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text and website. Some of the content may not in English, but you should also read them and give the answer in English. You should not include any personal opinions or interpretations in your summary, but rather focus on objectively presenting the information from the report. Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, and accurately reflects the content of the original text: ' \n Eidgenössisches Departement für  \nUmwelt, Verkehr, Energie und Kommunikation UVEK \nBundesamt für Energie BFE \n  \n \n \n C:\\Documents and Se"
In [ ]:
## OpenAI API parameters
# model = "gpt-3.5-turbo" # 4K tokens
model_35 = "gpt-3.5-turbo-16k" # 16K tokens
# model = "gpt-4"
max_tokens = 2048
n = 1
stop = None
temperature = 0.5

# Call OpenAI API for the second prompt
response2 = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model_35,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful  assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt2[:min(len(prompt2),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput2 = response2.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput2)
Summary of Energy Related Policies in Switzerland:

1. The Swiss government implemented the Stromversorgungsgesetz (StromVG) in 2004, which aimed to open up the Swiss electricity market. It included provisions for the gradual liberalization of the market, starting with larger consumers and eventually extending to households.

2. The StromVG also introduced measures to promote renewable energy and energy efficiency. It set a target for the increase of renewable energy generation by at least 5.4 billion kilowatt-hours by 2030, which is equivalent to around 10% of the current electricity consumption.

3. The Swiss government established EnergieSchweiz as a central platform for raising awareness, providing information, and offering advice on energy efficiency and renewable energy. EnergieSchweiz focuses on three priority areas: building efficiency and renewable energy for households, mobility for households and businesses, and industrial and service sector processes.

4. EnergieSchweiz aims to reduce non-price barriers and transaction costs that hinder energy efficiency measures and the use of renewable energy. It works with private households, businesses, and the public sector to promote behavioral changes and the adoption of energy-efficient technologies.

5. The program emphasizes collaboration with partners, including cantons, cities, municipalities, and other stakeholders. It also supports research and innovation in the energy sector, with a focus on market-ready solutions and the creation of sustainable jobs.

6. EnergieSchweiz is regularly evaluated to ensure its effectiveness and to adapt to changing market dynamics and technological advancements. It prioritizes flexibility and agility in responding to new developments in the energy market.

7. The program is aligned with the goals of the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050, which aims to reduce energy consumption, increase the share of renewable energy, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

8. EnergieSchweiz collaborates with other government agencies, such as the Federal Office for the Environment (BAFU) and the Federal Office for Roads (ASTRA), to integrate climate protection measures and address the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

Overall, Switzerland's energy policies focus on market liberalization, promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency, and fostering collaboration among stakeholders to achieve sustainable energy goals.
In [ ]:
from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()
Upload widget is only available when the cell has been executed in the current browser session. Please rerun this cell to enable.
Saving canada-energy-futures-2023.pdf to canada-energy-futures-2023 (1).pdf
In [ ]:
# Example usage
canada_energy_files = [
    'canada-energy-futures-2023.pdf']

# Extract text from each PDF and combine
canada_energy_text = ""
for file in canada_energy_files:
    canada_energy_text += extract_text_from_pdf(file)

print(canada_energy_text)
Canada’s Energy Future 20232
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORPermission to Reproduce
Materials may be reproduced for personal, educational and/or  
non-profit activities, in part or in whole and by any means, without 
charge or further permission from the Canada Energy Regulator, 
provided that due diligence is exercised in ensuring the accuracy of 
the information reproduced; that the Canada Energy Regulator is 
identified as the source institution; and that the reproduction is not 
represented as an official version of the information reproduced, nor 
as having been made in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of 
the Canada Energy Regulator.
If a party wishes to rely on material from this report in any regulatory 
proceeding before the CER, it may submit the material, just as it 
may submit any public document. Under these circumstances, the 
submitting party in effect adopts the material and that party could be 
required to answer questions pertaining to the material.
This report does not provide an indication about whether any 
application will be approved or not. The Commission will decide  
on specific applications based on the material in evidence before it  
at that time.
For permission to reproduce the information in this publication for 
commercial redistribution, please e-mail: info@cer-rec.gc.ca
© His Majesty the King in Right of Canada as 
represented by the Canada Energy Regulator 2023
Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand 
Projections to 2050
PDF: NE2-12E-PDF 
Paper: NE2-12E
ISSN 2562-069X (Print)
ISSN 2292-1710 (Electronic)
Key title: Canada's Energy Future
This report is published separately in both official languages. 
This publication is available upon request in multiple formats.Autorisation de reproduction
Le contenu de cette publication peut être reproduit à des fins 
personnelles, éducatives et(ou) sans but lucratif, en tout ou en partie 
et par quelque moyen que ce soit, sans frais et sans autre permission 
de la Régie de l'énergie du Canada, pourvu qu’une diligence 
raisonnable soit exercée afin d’assurer l’exactitude de l’information 
reproduite, que la Régie de l'énergie du Canada soit mentionnée 
comme organisme source et que la reproduction ne soit présentée 
ni comme une version officielle ni comme une copie ayant été faite 
en collaboration avec la Régie de l'énergie du Canada ou avec 
son consentement. 
Quiconque souhaite utiliser le présent rapport dans une instance 
réglementaire devant la Régie peut le soumettre à cette fin, comme 
c’est le cas pour tout autre document public. Une partie qui agit ainsi 
se trouve à adopter l’information déposée et peut se voir poser des 
questions au sujet de cette dernière. 
Le présent rapport ne fournit aucune indication relativement à 
l’approbation ou au rejet d’une demande quelconque. La Régie 
étudie chaque demande en se fondant sur les documents qui lui sont 
soumis en preuve à ce moment. 
Pour obtenir l’autorisation de reproduire l’information contenue 
dans cette publication à des fins commerciales, faire parvenir un 
courriel à : info@cer-rec.gc.ca
© Sa Majesté le Roi de droit du Canada représenté 
par la Régie de l’énergie du Canada 2023
Avenir énergétique du Canada en 2023 - Offre et demande 
énergétiques à l’horizon 2050
PDF : NE2-12F-PDF 
Papier : NE2-12F
ISSN 2562-0703 (version imprimée)
ISSN 2292-1729 (version électronique)
Titre clé : Avenir énergétique du Canada
Ce rapport est publié séparément dans les deux langues officielles. 
On peut l'obtenir sur supports multiples, sur demande.CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORTable of Contents
Message from the Chief Executive Officer  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Executive Summary   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Key Findings ................................................ 7
Introduction  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Scenarios and Assumptions   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Scenario premise  ........................................... 20
Key assumptions  ........................................... 26
Domestic climate policy ..................................... 26
Technology  .............................................. 32
Crude oil and natural gas markets ............................. 34
Non-energy and land use, land-use change and forestry emissions  
(LULUCF) ................................................ 38
Results   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions  .............................. 40
Canada’s GHG emission profile ............................... 40
GHG emission projections ................................... 42
Energy demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Residential and commercial .................................. 48
Industrial  ................................................ 52
Transportation  ............................................ 56
Primary energy demand ..................................... 61Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Electricity use ............................................. 64
Electricity production ....................................... 68
Energy use associated with electricity generation  ................. 80
GHG emissions associated with electricity generation .............. 80
Oil and natural gas production  ................................. 82
Crude oil  ................................................ 82
Natural gas  .............................................. 93
Natural gas liquids ......................................... 96
Energy use in the oil and gas sector  ........................... 98
GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector ...................... 99
Hydrogen  ................................................ 100
Hydrogen use  ........................................... 101
Hydrogen production ...................................... 105
GHG emissions associated with hydrogen production ............. 106
Negative emissions ......................................... 107
Macroeconomics  .......................................... 112
Access and Explore Energy Future Data   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
About the CER  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
About this Report   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
Appendix 1: Domestic Climate Policy Assumptions  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
Appendix 2: Technology Assumptions   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1261
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORMessage from the 
Chief Executive Officer
As with past versions of Canada’s Energy Future, EF2023 explores how 
possible energy futures might unfold for Canadians over the long term. In this 
analysis, we begin with the end goal in mind: net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) 
emissions in 2050, and use our models to identify pathways to that point. 
This is a different approach compared to past versions of the report where 
we ran our models without restrictions, giving us insights into what a given 
premise meant for the future.
In this report we explore a key question about Canada’s energy future: what 
could reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 look like? This report is not a 
prediction or a recommendation. It presents net-zero scenarios that can help 
Canadians and policy makers see what a net-zero world could look like, 
visualize the goal, and make informed decisions.I am proud to introduce the 2023 edition of  
Canada’s Energy Future—our most ambitious report 
yet, and the Canada Energy Regulator’s (CER) first 
long-term outlook modeling net-zero by 2050
1
2
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORWe know that modeling the pathways to net-zero is a big challenge. Canada’s energy 
system is complex and diverse, and how we produce and use energy in net-zero 
world will be dramatically different than it is today. As you’ll read in this report, there 
are some key components of this dramatically different world:
• Electricity becomes the cornerstone of the net-zero energy system. Devices 
that we use every day that use fossil fuels are replaced by technologies that 
use electricity. By 2050, technologies like electric vehicles and heat pumps 
become commonplace.
• Low-carbon fuels like hydrogen and biofuels enable the energy system’s path 
to net-zero, while carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) helps to 
reduce emissions in many industries and the power generation sector.
• In a future with ambitious global climate action, global demand for fossil fuels 
falls steeply, reducing oil and natural gas prices and Canadian production of 
those commodities.
Uncertainty is inherent in all energy modeling exercises, including EF2023. And I am 
sure not everyone will agree with the assumptions we made, nor our findings. To 
address uncertainty about the future, we look at three scenarios in EF2023, two of 
which explore net-zero. We also introduce five additional “What if” cases that ask 
how changing some of our assumptions could impact Canada’s pathway to net-zero. 
Our analysis is a means to understand what the future could look like under a certain 
premise and set of assumptions. Relying on just one scenario to understand the 
energy future implies too much certainty about what could happen.
3
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIt is important to state that the pathway to net-zero is broader than the technical 
and economic considerations that are the primary focus of EF2023. Policy 
choices, the regulatory landscape, Canada's journey towards Reconciliation, 
and societal preferences will each play a critical role in Canada’s energy future. 
EF2023 is another step in the CER’s net-zero modeling journey. We continue to 
learn and look forward to building on this report in the years to come. 
The CER’s energy information work is a key part of our mandate as an 
independent regulatory body. We do not develop government policies nor assess 
the appropriateness of such policies, and the assumptions, narrative, and results 
in EF2023 do not represent an official government position or policy direction. 
Canada’s Energy Future contributes analysis and data to help inform Canada’s 
energy dialogue for policy makers, the energy industry, and Canadians looking to 
make informed energy choices.
Additional CER work is underway to support Canada’s emission reduction 
ambitions, beyond the energy information we provide to Canadians. For example, 
in collaboration with Natural Resources Canada, we are working to develop a 
regulatory framework for renewable energy projects and power lines in Canada’s 
offshore areas, an activity within the CER’s regulatory responsibility. We are also 
working to make sure we are ready to oversee the transportation of hydrogen 
by pipeline should such a facility be proposed within the CER’s jurisdiction. 
In addition, we recently updated the GHG emissions and climate change 
information that companies need to provide the CER when they are seeking 
approval for a project.Consultation and collaboration have always been key to the success of the 
Canada’s Energy Future series. Our work is better when we hear the perspectives 
of others. Over the past 18 months we have sought advice and feedback from 
experts within the federal government, particularly Natural Resources Canada 
and Environment and Climate Change Canada. We also sought advice from 
some of the top energy system modeling experts outside of government, both 
in Canada and internationally. Finally, many experts responded to a technical 
discussion paper and survey on our preliminary approach. I would like to thank all 
of those who participated in these activities.
I would like to close by thanking the dedicated staff at the CER who contributed 
to EF2023. This report is the CER’s latest contribution to the very important public 
dialogue on what the pathways to net-zero might look like. I am excited to share 
these scenarios with Canadians and look forward to the interesting discussions 
ahead as we navigate Canada’s dynamic energy future.
Gitane De Silva,  
Chief Executive Officer  
Canada Energy Regulator4
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORExecutive Summary
Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and 
Demand Projections to 2050 (EF2023) is the latest 
long-term energy outlook from the Canada Energy 
Regulator (CER). 
The Canada’s Energy Future series explores how possible energy futures 
might unfold for Canadians over the long term. 
EF2023 focuses on the challenge of achieving net-zero greenhouse 
gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. We explore net-zero scenarios to help 
Canadians and policy makers see what a net-zero world could look like, 
visualize the goal, and make informed decisions. Our scenarios cover all 
energy commodities and all Canadian provinces and territories. We use 
economic and energy models to do this analysis.
The results in EF2023 are not predictions about the future, nor 
are they policy recommendations . Rather, they are the product of 
scenarios based on a specific premise and set of assumptions. 
Relying on just one scenario to understand the energy outlook implies too 
much certainty about what could happen in the future.
5
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIn EF2023 the end point of our analysis is predetermined: net-zero GHG emissions 
by 2050. We then explore the question, “what might a pathway to that end point look 
like?” Previous Canada’s Energy Future reports contained scenarios assessing how 
varying levels of future climate action might affect Canada’s energy future. In those 
reports, we did not limit the outcome of our scenarios based on a particular goal 
or target. 
EF2023 contains three scenarios: Global Net-zero, Canada Net-zero, 
and Current Measures 
In the Global Net-zero Scenario, we assume Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 
2050. We also assume the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit global 
warming to 1.5 Celsius (°C). In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, Canada also achieves 
net-zero emissions by 2050, but the rest of the world moves more slowly to reduce 
GHG emissions. 
The pace of action outside of Canada to reduce GHG emissions is the main 
difference between the net-zero scenarios in EF2023. As a trading nation, what 
happens globally affects Canada’s economy and energy system. EF2023 focuses 
on Canada, and we do not model global energy markets for the scenarios. Instead, 
international factors relevant to the Canadian energy outlook, such as global prices 
for crude oil and natural gas, and costs for many low-carbon technologies, are inputs 
into our models. For some of these inputs, we rely on scenarios from the International 
Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2022.
The third scenario, the Current Measures Scenario, assumes limited action in Canada 
to reduce GHG emissions beyond measures in place today and does not require that 
Canada achieve net-zero emissions. In this scenario we also assume limited future 
global climate action. Figure ES.1 shows the three scenarios.
6
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORFigure ES.1: 
Illustration of the scenarios in EF2023
Five “What if” cases explore uncertainties on the path to net-zero
In addition to the three main scenarios in EF2023, you will find five cases in this report that ask: “What if?” There are many uncertainties on the pathway to net-zero. 
These cases explore some of them by changing some key assumptions in EF2023 and showing what it could mean for Canada’s pathway to net-zero. 
• What if the technologies to enable wide-scale adoption of hydrogen are more or less costly?
• What if small modular reactor (SMR) technology matures less quickly and is more costly?
• What if direct air capture (DAC) technology matures more quickly and is less costly?
• What if carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology does not mature as quickly and is more costly?
• What if electricity vehicle charging patterns result in higher peak electricity demand?7
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIn our net-zero scenarios, the types of energy 
Canadians use changes dramatically, including 
using a lot more electricity.1Key Findings
The energy system in 2050 is very different than it is today in both of 
our net-zero scenarios. We project that electricity becomes the most 
important end-use energy source while the use of fossil fuels falls 
significantly. 
As shown in Figure ES.2, electricity, hydrogen, and biofuels make up a 
much greater share of energy use. By 2050, we project that electricity 
makes up 41% of total end-use energy consumption in the Global Net-
zero Scenario, and 39% in the Canada Net-zero Scenario, up from 17% 
in 2021. 
Hydrogen and biofuels emerge as important alternatives when 
electricity may not be the best option to use, for example in heavy 
freight transportation, aviation, or certain industrial processes. By 2050, 
hydrogen makes up 12% of the energy mix and biofuels make up another 
13% in the Global Net-zero Scenario.
With greater use of low and non-emitting energy sources, fossil fuel use 
drops by 65% from 2021 to 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario, and by 
56% in the Canada Net-zero Scenario. Fossil fuels still play an important 
part in the energy system, with much of the fossil fuel in 2050 used at 
industrial facilities outfitted with carbon capture technology, or for non-
energy use like asphalt, lubricants, and petrochemicals.
8
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIn both net-zero scenarios, electricity use more than 
doubles from 2021 to 2050, becoming the dominant 
energy source in the energy system. This is because 
many energy technologies we use today are steadily 
replaced with devices that do the same things but 
use electricity instead, like electric vehicles replacing 
vehicles with internal combustion engines and heat 
pumps replacing gas and oil furnaces. Many industries, 
like iron and steel and manufacturing, also switch to 
using more electricity. Finally, producing hydrogen 
and capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) directly from the 
atmosphere further increase electricity use later in the 
projection period. In many instances, using electricity 
is much more efficient than using fossil fuels, and 
contributes to energy use decreasing by 22% from 
2021 to 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario. Figure 
ES.3 shows electricity use by sector in the Global Net-
zero Scenario.
While the types of fuels and technologies that shape 
our energy system change considerably over the next 
27 years, we project little change to the energy services 
Canadians receive in both net-zero scenarios. Energy 
services are not the energy or technologies we use, 
but rather the things that energy enables us to do, 
like heat our homes, travel from place to place, or run 
equipment at a business. In 2050, Canadians continue 
to comfortably heat and cool their homes, get around 
how they prefer, and have their electricity needs met.Figure ES.2:
End-use energy use, by fuel, all scenarios 
Figure ES.3:
Electricity use by sector, Global Net-zero Scenario
9
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORThe electricity system, which decarbonizes by 2035 
and achieves net-negative emissions thereafter, is the 
backbone of our net-zero scenarios.2
In both net-zero scenarios, the electricity sector transforms to 
accommodate increasing electricity use while also rapidly decarbonizing 
electricity production. By 2050 in both net-zero scenarios, more than 
99% of electricity is from non- or low-emission technologies. We project 
that wind, nuclear power, hydro, natural gas with CCUS, bioenergy with 
carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and solar make up most of the 
new generation growth over the projection period. Meanwhile, fossil fuel 
generation without CCUS declines swiftly in response to increasingly strong 
climate policies. The sector achieves net-zero emissions by 2035 and 
becomes net-negative thereafter, a result of using BECCS.
Canada’s electricity system is regionally diverse, with the generation mix 
largely determined by the resources available in each province or territory. 
Many regions already have low-emitting electricity systems while others rely 
more on fossil fuels. This variation means that the transition of the electricity 
sector in each region is unique. Each region capitalizes on their own 
resources and technological expertise to drive the electricity sector towards 
net-zero.
10
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORAs shown in Figure ES.4, among all technologies, wind 
contributes the greatest amount of new generation 
by 2050, increasing ninefold from current levels in the 
Global Net-zero Scenario. Wind increases it share of 
generation in most provinces, with significant growth in 
Alberta, Saskatchewan, British Columbia, and Ontario. 
Generation from hydroelectricity, currently the largest 
source of generation in Canada, increases by 26% 
from 2021 to 2050, largely in provinces that currently 
have significant hydroelectric resources already. 
Natural gas-fired generation with CCUS becomes 
a key source of power, particularly in Alberta and 
Saskatchewan, where it makes up 13% of generation 
in those provinces by 2050 in the Global Net-zero 
Scenario. Nuclear generation, in the form of small 
modular reactors (SMRs), increases significantly in the 
2040 to 2050 period, with strong growth in Ontario and 
deployment in many other provinces. Solar generation 
increases steadily in both net-zero scenarios, making 
up 5% of total generation by 2050.
We project that the electricity sector reaches net-zero 
GHG emissions by 2035 in both net-zero scenarios 
and, after that, becomes net-negative due the use of 
BECCS. Negative emissions are achieved by burning 
biomass to generate power and then capturing and 
permanently storing the CO2 which would otherwise 
be released naturally when the plants die. By 2050, net 
emissions from the power sector are -36 megatonnes 
(MT) in the Global Net-zero Scenario, as shown in 
Figure ES.5.Figure ES.4: 
Change in electricity generation from 2021 to 2050, by fuel, Global Net-zero Scenario
Figure ES.5: 
GHG emissions from the electricity sector, by fuel, Global Net-zero Scenario
11
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOR
A portfolio of emerging technologies plays a key role 
in our net-zero scenarios, especially to address more 
difficult-to-reduce emissions.3
For some energy uses, switching to electricity is not possible or less 
effective than other low- or non-emitting options. In both net-zero 
scenarios, a portfolio of options plays important supporting roles, 
including CCUS, hydrogen, negative emission technologies and nature-
based solutions.
As shown in Figure ES.6, CCUS is used to capture CO2 emissions from 
the electricity, heavy industry, and oil and gas sectors in both net-zero 
scenarios. By 2050, nearly 60 MT of CO2 are captured from these sectors 
using CCUS in the Global Net-zero Scenario, which is about 9% of 
Canada’s total GHG emissions in 2021. In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, 
almost 80 MT of CO2 are captured by 2050, as there are more emissions 
to be captured from the greater amount of fuel used to produce oil and 
natural gas. 12
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORA robust hydrogen economy develops in both net-
zero scenarios. Most hydrogen is used in heavy freight 
vehicles and in industries like chemicals, iron and 
steel, and petroleum refining. We project hydrogen use 
reaches over 8.5 MT by 2050 in the Global Net-zero 
Scenario, or 12% of total energy use. We also assume 
an additional 5 MT of hydrogen exports in the Global 
Net-zero Scenario. Combined, Canada produces 
nearly 14 MT of hydrogen by 2050 in the Global Net-
zero scenario, and slightly more in the Canada Net-
zero Scenario. We project hydrogen production from 
a variety of technologies including using natural gas 
as a feedstock along with CCUS, electrolysis using 
water and electricity, and biomass-based processes, 
as shown in Figure ES.7. Biomass-based hydrogen 
production, when coupled with CCUS, results in net-
negative GHG emissions much like BECCS electricity 
generation. 
Despite all sectors significantly reducing emissions, 
several sectors, like buildings, heavy industry and oil 
and gas still have positive GHG emissions by 2050 in 
both net-zero scenarios. Technologies like BECCS and 
direct air capture, as well as nature-based solutions, 
result in negative emissions by 2050 in both net-zero 
scenarios, allowing emissions to balance to zero. By 
2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario, we project -36 
MT net-negative emissions from the electricity sector, 
-21 MT from hydrogen production using biomass with 
CCUS, and -46 MT from direct air capture technology. 
We also assume 50 MT of negative emissions from 
land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). Figure ES.6: 
GHG emissions captured and permanently stored from fossil fuel combustion and 
industrial processes, by sector, Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios 
Figure ES.7: 
Hydrogen production by technology, Global Net-zero Scenario
13
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORCanada’s oil and natural gas industry significantly 
reduces its emissions in our net-zero scenarios and, 
while production declines, the pace of global climate 
action determines by how much.4
In both net-zero scenarios, GHG emissions from producing and 
processing oil and natural gas decrease approximately 90% by 2050 
compared to 2021. We project that increasingly strong climate policies 
result in the adoption of CCUS, technological and process improvements 
to dramatically reduce methane emissions, efficiency improvements, 
and reliance on electricity where feasible. Ultimately, falling production in 
response to much lower crude oil and natural gas prices in the Global 
Net-zero Scenario is also a key driver of decreasing emissions.
In EF2023, the assumptions we make about the price of crude oil and 
natural gas have the largest impact on our projections for Canadian oil 
and gas production. Those prices are different in each scenario and are 
driven by the pace of global climate action in the future and the resulting 
amount of global demand for oil and natural gas. 
In the Global Net-zero Scenario, we assume that global prices of oil 
and natural gas fall steeply in response to declining global demand for 
fossil fuels over the coming decades. In this scenario, we project that 
Canadian crude oil production falls to 1.2 million barrels per day (MMb/d) 
(194 thousand cubic metres per day (10³m³/d)) by 2050, 76% lower than 
in 2022 as shown in Figure ES.8. As shown in Figure ES.9, natural gas 
production falls by 68% over the same period, reaching 5.5 billion cubic 
feet per day (Bcf/d) (156 million cubic metres per day (106m³/d)) by 2050.
14
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIn the Canada Net-zero Scenario, prices fall less than in 
the Global Net-zero Scenario, a result of less ambitious 
global climate action, which results in higher global 
demand for fossil fuels. We project that oil production 
falls to 3.9 MMb/d (623 10³m³/d) by 2050, 22% lower 
than in 2022, and natural gas production falls to 
11.0 Bcf/d (310 106m³/d), 37% lower than in 2022. 
In the Current Measures Scenario, where prices are 
highest and future climate action is the least ambitious, 
crude oil and natural gas production are the highest, 
and so are emissions from the sector. Crude oil 
production reaches 6.1 MMb/d (964 10³m³/d) by 2050, 
20% higher than in 2022. Production of natural gas 
grows to 21.5 Bcf/d (607 106m³/d), a 24% increase 
over the projection period. Figure ES.8: 
Crude oil production, all scenarios 
Figure ES.9: 
Natural gas production, all scenarios
15
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORReaching net-zero in our scenarios is driven by increasingly strong climate policies, in Canada and abroad.5
Both the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios achieve net-zero GHG 
emissions by 2050, a pre-determined outcome given the nature of the 
analysis. Large emission reductions occur across the economy, with all 
sectors contributing to achieving net-zero. Figure ES.10 shows emissions by 
economic sector over the projection period in the Global Net-zero Scenario, 
with positive emissions from some sectors being offset by negative emissions 
in other sectors by 2050. The emission trends are similar in the Canada Net-
zero Scenario.
Continued increases in the strength of climate policies in Canada is the key 
driver of emission reductions over the coming decades in both net-zero 
scenarios. Our modeling shows that the pace of climate action in Canada will 
need to continue to increase in the 2030 to 2050 period in order to achieve 
net-zero emissions by 2050. This is in contrast to the Current Measures Scenario, where domestic climate 
action does not increase beyond those measures currently in place today. 
In that scenario, we project that GHG emissions are just 13% lower in 2050 
than they were in 2021. 
Action to reduce emissions globally also plays an important role in our 
projections and what the paths to net-zero look like in our scenarios. 
Depending on the scenario, we assume that climate policies around the 
world drive technological innovation and create markets for low-carbon 
technologies. This innovation and market development results in our 
assumption of lower costs and better performance for low emission 
technologies in the net-zero scenarios. In addition, global climate action also 
factors into our projections by influencing the prices and exports of energy 
we produce, which are key drivers of our scenarios.
Figure ES.10: 
GHG emissions by economic sector, Global Net-zero Scenario16
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIntroduction
Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply 
and Demand Projections to 2050 (EF2023) is 
the latest long-term energy outlook from the   
Canada Energy Regulator (CER).
The Canada’s Energy Future series explores how possible energy futures 
might unfold for Canadians over the long term. We use economic and 
energy models to explore how supply and demand for energy could 
evolve. EF2023 is the CER’s first long-term outlook that models scenarios 
where Canada reaches net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 
2050. To model net-zero, we begin with the end goal in mind—net-zero 
GHG emissions in 2050—and use our models to identify pathways to that 
point. This is a different approach compared to past versions of the report 
where we ran our models without restrictions, giving us insights into what 
a given premise meant for the future.
17
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOREF2023 includes three scenarios, two that reach net-zero by 2050
EF2023 contains three scenarios. Two of these scenarios explore pathways 
where Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050. In the Global Net-zero 
Scenario, we assume Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050. We 
also assume the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit global 
warming to 1.5 Celsius (°C). In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, Canada also 
achieves net-zero emissions by 2050 but the rest of the world moves more 
slowly to reduce GHG emissions. The third scenario, the Current Measures 
Scenario, assumes limited action to reduce GHG emissions beyond measures 
in place today. In this scenario, we do not require our modeling results achieve 
net-zero GHG emissions in Canada by 2050. We also assume limited future 
global climate action.
Five “What if” cases explore uncertainties on the path to net-zero 
In addition to the three main scenarios in EF2023, you will find five cases in 
this report that ask: “What if?” There are many uncertainties on the pathway 
to net-zero. These cases explore some of them by changing some key 
assumptions in EF2023 and showing what it could mean for Canada’s 
pathway to net-zero: 
• What if the technologies to enable wide-scale adoption of hydrogen are 
more or less costly?
• What if small modular reactor (SMR) technology matures less quickly 
and is more costly?
• What if direct air capture (DAC) technology matures more quickly and is 
less costly?
• What if carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology 
does not mature as quickly and is more costly?
• What if electricity vehicle charging patterns result in higher peak 
electricity demand?
18
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORWe have been working to improve our analytical tools over the past several years 
to ensure we are up to the challenge of modeling net-zero. In late 2021, the 
Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Natural Resources and the Minister 
responsible for the CER, wrote a letter to the Chairperson of the CER’s Board of 
Directors, Cassie Doyle. The letter requested that the CER undertake scenario 
analysis consistent with Canada achieving net-zero emissions1 by 2050 as soon 
as possible. Minister Wilkinson requested that the analysis:
• Include fully modelled scenarios of supply and demand for all energy 
commodities in Canada.
• Be consistent with a global context in which the world achieves its Paris 
Accord goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C.
• Consider relevant uncertainties, including future trends in low-carbon 
technology and energy markets.
In her response, Chairperson Doyle welcomed the clarity provided by the 
Minister’s letter and confirmed the next Canada’s Energy Future report will include 
net-zero scenarios.
Consultation and collaboration have always been key to the Canada’s Energy 
Future series. We sought advice and feedback from various experts throughout 
the process, with the goal of validating our approach, assumptions, and 
preliminary results to ensure EF2023 was technically robust and credible.
Federal departments, particularly Natural Resources Canada and Environment 
and Climate Change Canada, played an important role in supporting the EF2023 
analysis. While the CER is ultimately accountable for the content of EF2023, both 
organizations supported our efforts by contributing substantial technical expertise 
to the analysis. This collaboration ensured we had the best possible information 
about the latest technologies and climate policy developments. The CER would 
like to thank both organizations for their steadfast support in this endeavor.
1 The term “net-zero emissions” refers to a state where human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are balanced by human-caused removals of GHGs from the atmosphere. GHG emissions include all gases that have heat-trapping 
potential including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and various other gases. The Canadian Energy Regulator Act (CER Act) is the foundation for 
nearly all that we do. Our Strategic Plan aligns with the mandate set out 
in the CER Act and describes our mission as:
Regulating federal infrastructure to ensure safe and efficient delivery 
of energy to Canada and the world, protecting the environment, 
recognizing, and respecting the rights of the Indigenous Peoples, 
and providing timely and relevant energy information and analysis.
The CER’s Board of Directors sets the strategic direction of 
our organization. The Board of Directors supported the CER taking on 
the challenge of modeling net-zero and provided strategic direction for 
EF2023 throughout the exercise. 
Core to the governance of our organization is a clear separation between 
the operational and adjudicative functions of the CER. The CER’s 
energy information work, which includes EF2023, is separate from the 
adjudicative role of the Commission of the CER.
The Commission is responsible for making independent adjudicative 
decisions and recommendations pursuant to the CER Act and other 
legislation. The Commission considers each matter before it based on 
the evidence parties submit in a proceeding. If a party wishes to rely on 
material from EF2023 in a regulatory proceeding before the CER, it may 
submit the material, just as it may submit any public document. Under 
these circumstances, the submitting party in effect adopts the material 
and that party could be required to answer questions pertaining to 
the material.19
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORWe also sought advice from some of the top experts 
outside of government, both in Canada and internationally. 
Conversations with experts from organizations like the 
International Energy Agency , Canadian Climate Institute, 
and Institut de l’énergie Trottier were instrumental to 
ensuring our approach was sound. We deeply appreciate 
their advice.
The CER would also like to thank the many experts who 
responded to a technical discussion paper and survey 
on our preliminary approach in the Spring of 2022. This 
early feedback on our project was important in setting the 
direction of our work. A summary of that engagement is 
on our website: Discussion Paper Results – A Summary of 
What we Heard.
We base the projections in EF2023 on several important 
assumptions, which we outline in the Scenarios and 
Assumptions chapter. The Results chapter describes our 
projections of the Canadian energy system to 2050 for 
each of the three scenarios. Finally, the Access and Explore 
Energy Futures Data chapter links to data, tools, and 
interactive data visualizations that offer further insight into 
EF2023.The Scope of EF2023
The projections in EF2023 are based primarily on economic and technical factors. This 
includes economic activity, relevant policies, technology performance and costs, energy 
costs, and the characteristics of various energy devices. Our models simulate the decision-
making of households and businesses based on those factors, which differ in each of our 
scenarios. 
The future of energy in Canada is, however, much broader than the economic and 
technical factors driving the projections in EF2023 . Many of these are beyond the 
scope of our analysis. These include evolving societal preferences, regulatory frameworks 
and decisions, socioeconomic and affordability considerations, and the interaction between 
the energy transition and Canada's journey towards Reconciliation.
An example would be the choices our model makes regarding the type of power generating 
facilities that might be built to meet growing electricity demand in a given year. Our model 
simulates what technology is likely to be chosen based on the upfront costs of various 
options, future fuel costs, the impact on grid stability and any relevant policy considerations, 
such as carbon pricing.
Given our assumptions, the model might suggest that building a wind farm, for example, 
is the optimal outcome. However, the process to build such a facility would also depend 
on additional factors like the results of regulatory decision-making and societal viewpoints 
towards the project. We look at these factors in a general sense to assess if our projections 
are reasonable, but these factors are not easily accounted for within our energy models or 
study design, and largely fall outside the scope of EF2023.
Another aspect of Canada’s energy future outside the scope of EF2023 is how climate 
change will impact the economy and energy system. Many of the impacts of climate change 
on Canada today are described in Canada’s National Adaptation Strategy . These impacts 
include more frequent and intense weather events, such as floods and heat waves, and 
more gradual impacts such as permafrost thaw and coastal erosion. According to the 
United Nations International Panel on Climate Change, global surface temperatures are 
very likely to increase until at least 2050. This increase suggests that the impacts of climate 
change on the energy system and economy will increase over the projection period. Our 
models do not currently account for the wide range of climate impacts on the energy system 
and economy.
20
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORThis chapter describes the premise of the  
three scenarios in EF2023. We also describe  
the assumptions2 of those scenarios.
2 In the context of EF2023, assumptions are inputs to our energy and economic models. Assumptions are often made when a factor is necessary for the analysis but are not something that is explicitly modelled. 
Modellers often develop different sets of assumptions to generate different scenarios to understand how the energy future might look under different circumstances.Scenarios and Assumptions
Scenario premise
EF2023 analyzes three scenarios: the Global Net-zero Scenario, the Canada 
Net-zero Scenario, and the Current Measures Scenario. All three scenarios 
provide projections for all energy commodities and all Canadian provinces 
and territories. We developed these scenarios to explore questions that are 
relevant to the current Canadian energy dialogue, and to depict a range of 
potential outcomes for the future.
21
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOR.
3 Net-zero GHG emissions means that Canada’s human-caused GHG emissions are balanced by human-caused removals of GHGs from the atmosphere.The premise of each scenario differs based on:
• The pace of climate action in Canada (including whether Canada must 
achieve net-zero emissions by 2050).
• The pace of climate action in the rest of the world.
Both the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios share the premise that the future 
pace of climate action in Canada is consistent with Canada reaching net-zero3 
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2050. Simply put, a key outcome of these 
scenarios is predetermined: the level of GHG emissions in 2050. We then rely on 
our energy and economy models to project a pathway for the energy system that 
is consistent with this outcome. 
In the Current Measures Scenario, there is no additional action to reduce GHGs 
beyond those in place today. In this scenario, we do not require our modeling 
results to achieve net-zero GHG emissions in Canada by 2050. 
Global climate action affects Canada’s energy system
While the pace of domestic climate action is a key part of our scenarios, the 
pace of action outside of Canada is also important. As a trading nation, what 
happens globally affects Canada’s economy and energy system. EF2023 focuses 
on Canada, and we do not model global energy markets. Instead, international 
factors relevant to the Canadian energy outlook are assumptions, or inputs, that 
we put into our models. Examples include global prices for crude oil and natural 
gas, and costs for many low-carbon technologies. 
While both net-zero scenarios share the same overall premise for achieving net-
zero in Canada, they differ based on the pace of global climate action. The Global 
Net-zero Scenario is based on rapid global climate action: a pace consistent 
with the world achieving the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, 
compared to pre-industrial levels. In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, the pace of 
global climate action increases, but not as quickly. Global action in the Current 
Measures Scenario is the slowest, with limited future global action beyond 
policies in place today. 
22
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORThe IEA’s global outlook is our primary source for 
international assumptions
The primary source for international assumptions 
in the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios is the 
International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy 
Outlook 2022 (WEO2022). Much like the CER’s 
Canada’s Energy Future report, the IEA’s energy 
outlook contains multiple long-term scenarios.
Published in October 2022, WEO2022 provides robust 
and transparent projections. Relying on this analysis 
for the international perspective in EF2023 ensures 
our assumptions reflect recent international trends and 
events, including the impact of the Russian invasion of 
Ukraine on the global energy system. 
While the IEA does model Canada, we do not rely 
on those results in EF2023. Rather we use the IEA’s 
projections of key global variables (such as the 
global crude oil price) as assumptions in EF2023. We 
describe the specific assumptions we draw from the 
WEO2022 in the following section, Key Assumptions.
The Global Net-zero Scenario uses assumptions 
from the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 
Scenario
In our Global Net-zero Scenario, we use the IEA’s 
Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario from WEO2022 
as a source for many assumptions. This scenario is 
described by the IEA as “consistent with limiting the 
global temperature rise to 1.5°C without a temperature 
overshoot (with a 50% probability).” As a result, the 
scenario provides a good basis for ensuring our Global 
Net-zero Scenario reflects rapid global action to reduce 
GHG emissions. Figure A.1: 
Scenarios and assumptions
23
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORThe principles of the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario are summarized below:
• The uptake of all the available technologies and emissions reduction options is 
dictated by costs, technology maturity, policy preferences, and market and country 
conditions. 
• All countries co-operate towards achieving net-zero emissions worldwide. 
• An orderly transition across the energy sector, ensuring the security of fuel and 
electricity supplies at all times.
The Canada Net-zero Scenario uses the IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario for its 
international assumptions 
The Announced Pledges Scenario includes all the climate commitments and longer-term 
targets made by governments around the world and assumes that they will be met in full and 
on time. It covers net-zero by 2050 targets from Canada, the United States, the European 
Union, and others. It also includes targets such as China’s goal to achieve carbon neutrality 
before 2060, and India’s goal to reach net-zero by 2070. 
The IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario models increasing global climate action but is 
unlikely to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C. According to the IEA, the global GHG 
emissions resulting from this scenario would cause a temperature rise of around 1.7°C 
by 2100. The premise of the Canada net-zero Scenario is aligned with the Announced 
Pledges Scenario, with slower climate action outside of Canada than in the Global 
Net-zero Scenario.
The Current Measures Scenario uses other sources for international assumptions
The international assumptions of the Current Measures Scenario are not from the WEO2022. 
Instead, we review global scenario analysis produced by institutions, academia, industry, 
private forecasters, and other relevant energy analysis, to develop our own assumptions.
Figure A.1 summarizes, at a high-level, the premise of the CER’s scenarios, and how they 
relate to the assumptions in EF2023. The following section, Key Assumptions, describes the 
assumptions in detail.
24
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOR
Different global scenarios modeling a net-zero world
For the Global Net-zero Scenario in EF2023, we rely on the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario 
as a source for international assumptions. We also rely on the IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario in 
our Canada Net-zero Scenario. The IEA is an autonomous inter-governmental organization within the 
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development framework. Canada is one of 31 full member 
countries of the IEA. 
We chose this approach because the IEA’s global energy outlooks are among the most authoritative 
analyses of the global energy system. The World Energy Outlook series is publicly available, transparent 
about its assumptions and modeling approach, and provides significant context to accompany the 
results. Nearly all of the variables we require for the international assumptions in our own modeling 
exercise, such as crude oil and natural gas prices and technology costs, are readily available.
Other global outlooks were considered for EF2023
There are other energy outlooks that include global net-zero pathways that we considered but ultimately 
did not use in EF2023. Choosing a different global scenario to rely on would have resulted in different 
assumptions and outcomes in EF2023. Other global outlooks include the International Renewable Energy 
Agency World Energy Transitions Outlook, BP Energy Outlook, Shell Scenarios, and Platts Future Energy 
Outlooks. 
In addition, as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report  
(AR6), authors collected and assessed model-based scenarios related to climate change mitigation. 
The collection of these scenarios is referred to as the AR6 Scenarios Database4. 
The IEA’s outlook compared to other global pathways to net-zero
WEO2022 provides a comparison between the 16 IPCC scenarios that are comparable with the Net Zero 
Emissions by 2050 Scenario outcome of net-zero emissions from the global energy system. It indicates 
that the IEA’s scenario has lower total energy demand (due to efficiency and electrification), higher wind 
and solar electricity generation, and higher hydrogen consumption compared to many of the IPCC 
scenarios. It also shows that the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario has lower levels of bioenergy, 
carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and energy-related carbon dioxide removals than 
most of the IPCC scenarios. This does not indicate that the IEA, IPCC or any other scenarios are more 
reasonable but rather that there is a range of global pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
4 The database, and a scenario explorer tool is hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.25
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOR
In addition to the three main scenarios in EF2023, you will find five cases in this report that ask: “What 
if?” There are many uncertainties on the pathway to net-zero. These cases explore some of them by 
changing key assumptions in EF2023 and showing what it could mean for Canada’s pathway to net-
zero: 
• What if the technologies to enable wide-scale adoption of hydrogen are more or less costly?
• What if small modular reactor (SMR) technology matures less quickly and is more costly?
• What if DAC technology matures more quickly and is less costly?
• What if CCUS technology does not mature as quickly and is more costly?
• What if electricity vehicle charging patterns result in higher peak electricity demand? 
We chose these questions based on the magnitude of the impact these factors could have on the 
pathway to net-zero, and the level of uncertainty about their future. Why do we do scenario analysis?
EF2023, and most previous versions of the report, 
contain multiple scenarios. Scenario analysis is 
common in most long-term energy outlooks. 
We do scenario analysis to explore uncertainties 
facing the future of the energy system. The results 
in EF2023 are not predictions about the future. 
Rather, they are the product of scenarios based 
on a premise and a certain set of assumptions. 
Relying on just one scenario to understand the 
energy outlook implies too much certainty about 
what could happen in the future.
The scenarios in EF2023 explore uncertainty 
about the future pace of climate action in Canada 
and around the world. Past versions of the report 
explored this and other areas of uncertainty using 
scenarios. Past scenarios focused on energy 
infrastructure developments, energy prices, 
economic growth, and technological progress. 
While scenarios provide a range of potential 
outcomes for the future, they are also useful to 
compare against one another. The similarities and 
differences across the scenarios often provide 
more useful insights than a single scenario in 
isolation. 26
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORKey assumptions
Domestic climate policy
Domestic climate policies include laws, regulations, and programs put in place 
by governments with the goal of reducing GHG emissions. Such policies can 
affect the trajectory of Canada’s energy system. We make assumptions about the 
climate policies we model in each scenario in EF2023. This section outlines some 
of the key policies we include. Additional details are available in Appendix 1: 
Domestic Climate Policy Assumptions.
Domestic climate policies in the Current Measures Scenario
Federal, provincial, and territorial climate policies that are currently in place are the 
basis of the Current Measures Scenario. A policy is “in place” if it was enacted 
prior to March 2023. We do not include announced policies that are not yet 
implemented in the Current Measures Scenario. 
The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act (CNZEAA) enshrines 
in legislation the Government of Canada’s commitment to achieve net-zero 
GHG emissions by 2050. The CNZEAA does not contain mechanisms that 
directly influence the energy system like a more typical climate policy might, 
rather it provides a framework of accountability and transparency to deliver on 
Canada’s climate commitments. The Current Measures Scenario does not model 
the CNZEAA.Carbon pricing in EF2023 
Pricing carbon pollution is a key existing climate policy in Canada. 
Canada’s carbon pricing approach allows provinces and territories to 
choose their own system to price carbon pollution, or to rely on the 
federal pricing system. The federal pricing system is comprised of two 
parts, a regulatory charge on fossil fuels like gasoline and natural gas, 
called the fuel charge, and a performance-based system for industries, 
called the Output-Based Pricing System. Provinces and territories that 
develop their own systems must meet minimum national stringency 
criteria set by the federal government to ensure consistency and fairness. 
In all instances, mechanisms for allocating proceeds from carbon pricing 
continue as outlined by provinces or territories in their own systems, or 
as defined in the federal system. All revenue from the federal carbon 
pricing system is returned to the provinces and territories where they 
are collected. 
In all three scenarios, we assume that existing provincial and territorial 
carbon pricing systems remain in place. Prices in all jurisdictions increase 
from current levels by $15 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) 
per year to reach $170 per tonne by 2030. We describe our assumptions 
about how we model the cost of carbon between 2030 and 2050 later in 
this section.
* All dollar figures throughout the report are in Canadian dollars unless stated otherwise.27
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORCarbon pricing and mitigating economic competitiveness risks
How we apply carbon pricing to large industrial emitters differs between scenarios. 
This difference ensures consistency with each scenario premise. A key difference 
between all three scenarios is the level of future climate action outside of Canada. 
This can influence the design of carbon pricing systems. When some countries 
are not moving as quickly as Canada to reduce GHG emissions, there is a risk that 
some industries in those countries have an economic advantage over competitors 
in Canada. There is also a risk some industrial facilities may move from Canada to 
another country to avoid paying a price on carbon pollution; this migration is often 
called carbon leakage. 
The federal and provincial carbon pricing systems have mechanisms to mitigate 
these risks. Under the federal system, this mechanism is referred to as the Output-
Based Pricing System. This performance-based system is designed to create a 
financial incentive for industries to reduce emissions but also reduce the risk of 
carbon leakage and adverse competitiveness impacts due to domestic carbon 
pricing. Industry-specific benchmarks (output-based standards) are used to 
determine the amount of carbon price owed. Instead of paying the fuel charge on 
fuels that they use, facilities must provide compensation for emissions above an 
emissions limit, calculated by multiplying relevant output-based standards and the 
quantity of product produced. 
We assume that in the Global Net-zero Scenario, the Output-Based Pricing System, 
and provincial mechanisms to mitigate the risks of competitiveness impacts and 
carbon leakage, phase out completely by 2050. In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, 
slower global action implies that competitiveness could still be a concern. As a 
result, we assume these mechanisms remain in place but the benchmarks for 
determining the emission limits decline steadily over the projection period. In the 
Current Measures Scenario, these emission limits remain at their current levels over 
the projection period.
28
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORDomestic climate policies in the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios
The Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios include all in-place federal, provincial, 
and territorial climate policies. Both net-zero scenarios also include all announced 
but not-yet-implemented policies, to the extent possible. We applied the following 
criteria to determine whether an announced policy was included in our analysis:
• The policy was announced prior to March 2023.
• Sufficient details exist to model the policy.
The federal government made several key climate policy announcements that it is 
working to implement, including: 
• Clean Electricity Regulations – regulations to reduce GHG emissions from 
the generation of electricity to help work towards a net-zero electricity 
supply by 2035.
• Oil and Gas Emissions Cap – regulations to reduce GHG emissions from 
the oil and gas sector at a pace and scale necessary to achieve Canada’s 
2030 and 2050 climate targets.
• Light-duty Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Sales Mandate – a mandatory 
100% zero-emission vehicle sales target by 2035, including interim targets 
of at least 20% by 2026 and at least 60% by 2030.
• A 75% reduction in oil and gas sector methane emissions relative to 2012 
levels by 2030 – regulations and other measures needed to achieve at 
least a 75% reduction in methane emissions from the oil and gas sector 
from 2012 levels by 2030.
• Investment Tax Credit for Clean Hydrogen – a tax credit to support 
investments in clean hydrogen productionAssumptions regarding future policies in EF2023 are meant to  
be illustrative and represent a stylized future policy environment.  
Our assumptions are not policy recommendations for governments.  
In developing future policies, governments will consider economic, 
social, legal, jurisdictional (both within and outside of Canada),  
and other factors.These and other announced but not-yet-implemented policies are modeled in 
both net-zero scenarios. Final details of some of these policies were not available 
at the time of analysis. We include these policies by relying on assumptions about 
those policies as necessary.
In some cases, we strengthen existing and announced policies beyond what 
is specified in a policy or regulation. For example, the Clean Fuel Regulations 
require the emission intensity of certain fuels for sale in Canada to decline by a 
specific rate until 2030. We continue emission intensity reductions as if the policy 
continued to increase in strength beyond 2030. 
Finally, to ensure the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios achieve net-zero 
by 2050, we rely on some hypothetical policies in the 2030 to 2050 period. The 
following section, Modeling Net-zero and Future Climate Policy Assumptions 
describes this approach.
Table A.1 describes the key policy assumptions in EF2023. Further details on 
these and other policies is available in Appendix 1: Domestic Climate Policy 
Assumptions.29
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORTable A.1: 
Overview of domestic climate policy assumptions
Policies currently in place  
These policies are the basis of the Current Measures Scenario and are also included in the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios.
Policy Description
Carbon pricing Current provincial and territorial pricing systems, as well as the federal carbon pricing backstop. 
Methane regulations Federal and provincial regulations applying to methane, including federal regulations for the upstream oil and gas sector 
aimed at reducing emissions by 40% from 2012 levels by 2025.
Investment tax credit for carbon capture, 
utilization, and storageA federal investment tax credit for CCUS projects that permanently store captured carbon dioxide (CO2) in geological 
storage or in concrete. 
Investment tax credit for clean technologies A federal investment tax credit for electricity generation systems, stationary electricity storage systems, low-carbon heat 
equipment, and industrial zero-emission vehicles and related infrastructure. 
Clean fuel regulations A performance-based supply standard requiring suppliers of gasoline and diesel to reduce the lifecycle carbon intensity of 
their fuels.
Coal phase-out Traditional coal-fired generation is phased out of electricity generation by 2030.
Energy efficiency regulations Current federal and provincial regulations on energy efficiency for appliances, heating and cooling equipment, building 
codes, and vehicles. 
Zero-emissions vehicle subsidies Current federal and provincial subsidies on zero-emission vehicles. 
Renewable fuels Current provincial and federal regulations for blending biodiesel, ethanol, hydrogenation-derived renewable diesel, and 
renewable natural gas.
Announced policies that are not yet implemented  
These policies are included in the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios but not the Current Measures Scenario.
Policy Description
Clean electricity regulations Federal regulations to reduce GHG emissions from the generation of electricity to help work towards a net-zero electricity 
supply by 2035.
Zero-emission vehicle mandate A federal zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate is introduced in 2025, rising to 100% of new light duty vehicle sales by 
2035 in the provinces. New heavy duty vehicle sales rise to 100% ZEV where feasible by 2040. 
National net-zero emissions building strategy Increase energy efficiency of new and existing buildings out to 2050. 
Oil and gas emissions cap Regulations to reduce GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector at a pace and scale necessary to achieve Canada’s 
2030 and 2050 climate targets.
Methane regulations Methane emissions from the upstream oil and gas sector are reduced by 40% by 2025 from 2012 levels and 75% by 
2030.
Carbon pricing See the following section, “Modeling net-zero and Future Climate Policy Assumptions.”30
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORModeling net-zero and future climate policy assumptions 
A requirement of the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios is that Canada 
reaches net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. In the net-zero scenarios in 
EF2023, we begin with the end goal in mind: net-zero GHG emissions 
in 2050, and use our models to identify a pathway to that point. This is a 
different approach compared to past versions of this report. Previously, we ran our 
models without restrictions, giving us insights into what a given premise and set of 
assumptions meant for the future. 
5 Another approach to modeling net-zero pathways is referred to as optimization. This approach uses models to compute an optimal pathway to a pre-determined outcome (such as net-zero emissions by 2050). Canadian Energy 
Outlook 2021 published by the Institut de l’énergie Trottier is an example of modeling Canada’s energy system using optimization techniques.To reach net-zero, we take an iterative approach 
This approach5 begins with running the Energy Futures Modeling System with an 
initial set of assumptions. Once complete, we look at the resulting GHG emissions 
in 2050. If our projections do not result in net-zero emissions by 2050, we alter 
our hypothetical future climate policy assumptions and re-run our models. With 
each additional model run, we alter the policy assumptions, resulting in higher or 
lower GHG emissions. We repeat this process until the outcome of the model is 
consistent with net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Other assumptions, such as 
those on technologies, international markets, and behaviour, remain constant. 
Figure A.2 shows this process.
Figure A.2: 
Simplified iterative approach to modeling net-zero in the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios
31
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOR
The main driver of our models reaching a net-zero emissions outcome 
is what we refer to as the “aggregate cost of carbon.” The aggregate 
cost of carbon represents the hypothetical suite of policies, 
regulations, and programs, that we assume in the 2030 to 2050 
period. In practical terms, to implement this in the Energy Futures 
Modeling System, we rely on a hypothetical economy-wide carbon 
price to represent the aggregate cost of carbon. This choice is solely 
for technical modeling purposes. It is likely that future climate policy 
in Canada, like it is today, will be a diverse mix of tools to reduce 
emissions. Our assumptions are not policy recommendations 
for governments . In addition, these assumptions are not an 
estimate of what future carbon prices are necessary to achieve 
net-zero, but instead a modeling technique we use to explore 
potential net-zero outcomes.
The aggregate cost of carbon resulting from the iterative process 
shown in Figure A.2 increases steadily from $0 per tonne of carbon 
dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2030 to 2022$330 per tonne of CO2e 
in 2050 in inflation adjusted terms in the Global Net-zero Scenario, 
and to 2022$380 per tonne of CO2e in the Canada Net-zero 
Scenario. In both net-zero scenarios, this is in addition to the federal 
backstop carbon price of $170 per tonne of CO2e in 2030 to 2050 
(or 2022$95 per tonne of CO2e in inflation-adjusted terms by 2050), 
as well as all in-place federal, provincial, and territorial climate policies 
and the announced but not-yet-implemented policies that we model 
in our analysis.32
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORTechnology
To model Canada’s energy system, we make assumptions about a wide variety 
of technologies that use or produce energy. These range from well-established 
technologies (like refrigerators, furnaces, and wind turbines) to those under 
development or not yet widely used (like heat pumps, small modular reactors 
(SMRs), and DAC processes). We make assumptions about the current and 
future costs, performance, and efficiency of technologies. 
Energy technology development and the pace of climate action are related 
Climate policies drive technological innovation and create markets for low-
carbon technologies. This innovation and market development can result in 
lower costs and better performance. The difference in global climate action in 
our three scenarios means we make different assumptions about technology in 
each scenario. 
The Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios assume continued technological 
progress, including commercialization of many emerging technologies that can 
support a net-zero future. Both scenarios rely on the IEA’s scenarios for many 
of the technology assumptions, where clean energy technologies generally 
get progressively less costly over time. The pace of this cost decline varies 
by scenario. In the IEA’s analysis, the more households and businesses use a 
technology, the more its cost tends to decline. This means that technology costs 
decline the most in the Global Net-zero Scenario because it draws its technology 
assumptions from the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, which is the 
most ambitious scenario in WEO2022. The cost declines in the Canada Net-zero 
Scenario are somewhat slower, as that scenario relies on the IEA’s Announced 
Pledges Scenario, which has somewhat slower global climate action. The Current 
Measures Scenario has the slowest pace of technological development. 
Figure A.3 provides an example of the cost declines for some of the technologies 
in the Global Net-zero Scenario.Figure A.3: 
Capital cost trends for select technologies, Global Net-zero Scenario
33
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORCritical minerals are key to low-carbon energy deployment
All assumptions in EF2023 have a degree of uncertainty associated with them. 
How much different technologies eventually cost will likely differ from what we 
assume in this report. A key factor affecting many low-carbon technologies is the 
cost of inputs to manufacture those technologies, including critical minerals. In its 
WEO2022 report, the IEA notes that the increasing use and importance of critical 
minerals could become a bottleneck for clean energy deployment. For more 
information on the impact of critical minerals on the Canadian energy outlook, see 
the text box: “Critical Minerals and the Energy Transition” in EF2021, or the CER’s 
Market Snapshot “Critical Minerals are Key to the Global Energy Transition”.
Table A.2 describes many of the technology assumptions in EF2023 in all 
three scenarios. Further details on these and other technologies is available in 
Appendix 2: Technology Assumptions.
Table A.2: 
Overview of technology assumptionsa
Technology Global Net-zero Canada Net-zero Current Measures
CCUS Capture costs are different by industry and 
range from $45-200/tCO2 by 2030 and $30-
160/tCO2 from 2030-2050.Capture costs are different by industry and 
range from $45-200/tCO2 by 2030 and 
$ 30-160/tCO2 from 2030-2050.Capture costs are different by industry and 
range from $45-200/tCO2 through the projection 
period.
Battery-electric 
passenger vehiclesCost declines 30% by 2030 and 38% by 2050. Cost declines 28% by 2030 and 36% by 2050. Cost declines 26% by 2030 and 33% by 2050.
Medium and heavy-
duty freight vehiclesBattery-electric and fuel cell truck costs fall 
steadily, approaching parity with diesel vehicles 
in 2035-2050 period.Battery-electric and fuel cell truck costs fall 
steadily, approaching parity with diesel vehicles 
in 2035-2050 period.Battery-electric and fuel cell truck costs remain 
near current levels.
Heat pumps Cost declines 15% by 2030 and 40% by 2050. Cost declines 13% by 2030 and 34% by 2050. Cost declines 7% by 2030 and 20% by 2050.
Wind electricity Capital cost declines 13% by 2030 and 17% by 
2050.Capital cost declines 10% by 2030 and 16% by 
2050.Capital cost declines 9% by 2030 and 15% by 
2050.
Solar electricity Capital cost declines 44% by 2030 and 60% by 
2050.Capital cost declines 44% by 2030 and 60% by 
2050.Capital cost declines 40% by 2030 and 57% by 
2050.
Direct Air Capture 
(DAC)Capture cost declines to $330/tCO2 by 2035 
and $230/tCO2 by 2050.Capture cost declines to $350/tCO2 by 2035 
and $250/tCO2 by 2050.Capture cost remains at $400-450/tCO2 over 
projection period.
Hydrogen electrolyzer Capital cost declines 80% by 2030 and 84% by 
2050.Capital cost declines 74% by 2030 and 82% by 
2050.Capital cost declines 62% by 2030 and 70% by 
2050.
a Cost reductions are relative to 2021, and dollar figures are adjusted for inflation.
34
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORCrude oil and natural gas markets
Global crude oil and natural gas prices are a key driver of the Canadian energy system 
and are determined by supply and demand factors beyond Canada’s borders. The CER 
does not model international energy markets. Instead, we rely on other sources of 
information, including the analysis of others, to develop assumptions on factors like 
crude oil and natural gas prices. As we describe later in this section, we rely on IEA’s 
WEO2022 projections for key inputs in both of our net-zero scenarios.
Global crude oil prices were volatile over the past few years 
After averaging around US$60 per barrel (bbl) from 2017 to 2019, the annual average 
price for Brent crude oil fell to US$42/bbl in 2020. This price decreased largely because 
the COVID-19 pandemic reduced business activity, commuting, shipping, and travel, 
reducing global demand for oil-based products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. 
Beginning in 2021, prices began to steadily increase, as consumption of these products 
rebounded when many countries eased pandemic restrictions. Meanwhile, oil producers 
were slow to increase investment from 2020 levels, meaning there was less new oil 
production to supply growing demand. Price increases accelerated in early 2022 when 
Russia invaded Ukraine and countries around the world sanctioned Russia’s energy 
exports, increasing demand for non-Russian oil. The price for Brent crude oil rose above 
US$100/bbl for several months in 2022 before declining to closer to US$80/bbl late in 
the year.
North American natural gas prices followed similar trends to crude oil 
From 2017 to 2019, the Henry Hub natural gas price was stable around US$3.00 per 
million British thermal units (MMBtu). With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the 
price fell, averaging just over US$2.00/MMBtu in 2020. Like crude oil, natural gas prices 
increased through 2021 and 2022, at first because many countries eased pandemic 
restrictions and then because natural gas producers were slow to ramp up investment 
levels as demand increased. Then Russia invaded Ukraine, increasing demand for 
non-Russian natural gas around the world, especially liquefied natural gas (LNG) from 
markets like the United States. Henry Hub natural gas prices averaged US$8.81/MMBtu 
in August 2022, the highest monthly average since July 2008. By the end of 2022, 
natural gas prices decreased to less than US$6.00/MMBtu. In the first three months of 
2023, gas prices continued to fall, trading closer to US$2.00/MMBtu in March.
35
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORInternational crude oil and natural gas prices
We rely on the IEA’s WEO2022 for the global oil and natural gas price 
assumptions in the two net-zero scenarios in EF2023. The IEA’s Net Zero 
Emissions by 2050 Scenario is the source of price assumptions for our 
Global Net-zero Scenario. The IEA projects crude oil prices to decrease to 
2021US$35/bbl in inflation-adjusted terms by 2030 and 2021US$24/bbl in 
2050. In the IEA’s scenario, global crude oil consumption falls from 94.5 million 
barrels per day (MMb/d) (15.0 10³m³/d) in 2021, to 75.3 MMb/d (12.0 10³m³/d) 
in 2030 and 22.8 MMb/d (3.6 10³m³/d) in 2050. Much of this drop is because of 
the electrification of transportation; all global passenger vehicle sales are electric 
vehicles by 2035 in the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. By 2050, 
three quarters of remaining global crude oil use is for products like petrochemical 
feedstock, lubricants, and asphalt, where the oil is not combusted.
In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, the IEA projects that North 
American natural gas prices fall from 2021US$6.60/MMBtu in 2021 to 
2021US$2.00/MMBtu in 2030 and 2021US$1.80/MMBtu in 2050, in inflation-
adjusted terms. Global demand for natural gas in this scenario falls by 20% 
from 2021 to 2030, and by over 70% by 2050. The steepest reductions in the 
global use of natural gas occurs in electricity generation and heating of buildings. 
Producing low-carbon hydrogen from natural gas makes up half of the remaining 
consumption in 2050.
The IEA’s WEO2022 Announced Pledges Scenario is the source of global price 
assumptions for our Canada Net-zero Scenario. In the Announced Pledges 
Scenario, the drop in fossil fuel consumption is not as dramatic as in the Net Zero 
Emissions by 2050 Scenario. Global crude oil consumption declines 40% from 
2021 to 2050, and natural gas falls 37% over the same period. As a result, the 
price of crude oil decreases to 2021US$64/bbl in 2030 and 2021US$60/bbl 
in 2050 in inflation-adjusted terms in the IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario. 
The price of natural gas decreases to 2021US$3.70/MMBtu in 2030 and 
2021US$2.60/MMBtu in 2050.EF2023 uses IEA price projections to model crude oil and natural 
gas production
While we rely on the IEA’s crude oil and natural price projections, we do not use 
the IEA’s projected production of Canadian crude oil and natural gas. Instead, we 
use the IEA’s prices (adjusted to reflect local Canadian prices) in our models to 
project crude oil and natural gas production (which we describe in the following 
chapter, “Results”). 
We base our global price assumptions in the Current Measures Scenario on a 
review of price projections by various other organizations. In this scenario, we 
assume the Brent crude oil price is 2021US$75/bbl by 2030 and stays at that 
level through the projection period. We assume the Henry Hub natural gas price 
reaches 2021US$3.75/MMBtu in 2030, after which the price increases slowly, 
reaching 2021US$4.40/MMBtu in 2050.
Figures A.4 and A.5 show the prices we assume for crude oil and natural gas for 
all three scenarios in EF2023. For the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios, we 
adjust the IEA’s WEO2022 prices to align with key global price benchmarks used 
in the Canada’s Energy Future series: Brent, the primary global benchmark price 
for crude oil, and Henry Hub, a key North American benchmark price for natural 
gas. We also interpolate annual prices from IEA’s projections, which are only 
available for the years 2030 and 2050. 36
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORDomestic crude oil and natural gas prices
While international prices are a key driver of Canadian crude oil prices 
(like Western Canada Select (WCS) for heavy crude oil), local factors are also 
important in determining the prices Canadian crude oil producers receive. 
The difference, or “differential,” in prices between local markets and international 
prices depends on many things, such as whether pipelines have enough capacity 
to ship all exports, issues in downstream markets, and quality differences 
between different types of crude oil (like the chemical and compositional 
differences between light, sweet crude oil, and heavy, sour crude oil). 
In all three scenarios, the difference between West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a 
key North American crude benchmark, is US$2.50/bbl lower, in inflation-adjusted 
terms, than Brent over the entire projection period. We also assume that the 
difference between WTI and WCS remains at its historical level over the projection 
period at US$12.50/bbl in the Current Measures and Canada Net-zero scenarios. 
In the Global Net-zero Scenario, this differential begins to narrow slightly starting 
in 2035, reaching US$10/bbl in 2050. We alter the differential in this scenario to 
account for continued demand of heavier refined products, like asphalt.
Figure A.4: 
Brent crude oil price assumptions, all scenariosFigure A.6:
Canadian LNG export volume assumptions, all scenariosFigure A.5: 
Henry Hub natural gas price assumptions, all scenarios
37
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORLiquefied natural gas
We make assumptions about the amount of natural gas that Canada exports 
as LNG in all three scenarios (Figure A.6). Unlike many other industries, we 
do not use a model to project future LNG production. This is because the 
sector consists of a few large potential projects, each with their own unique 
circumstances. Instead, we rely on Asian natural gas prices in the WEO2022 to 
assess the economic viability of Canadian LNG exports, from which we develop 
our assumptions. 
We assume LNG production is the lowest in the Global Net-zero Scenario
In the Global Net-zero Scenario, we assume exports of LNG from the first phase 
of the LNG Canada project begin in 2025 and ramp up to 1.7 billion cubic feet 
per day (Bcf/d) 49.0 106m3/d) in 2026. This is the volume of natural gas that 
would be exported, accounting for natural gas used for fuel at the LNG facility. 
We also assume the Woodfibre LNG project begins production in 2028 and 
increases to full capacity of just below 0.3 Bcf/d (8.5 106m3/d) in 2029. Total 
exports in the Global Net-zero Scenario reach 2 Bcf/d (56.6 106m3/d) in 2029 and 
remain at that level until 2044. In 2045, LNG production begins to fall in response 
to much lower global LNG demand, reaching 0.3 Bcf/d (8.5 106m3/d) by 2046 
and staying at that level to 2050.
LNG exports increase to 2030 and then level off in the Canada Net-zero 
Scenario
In addition to the LNG exports in the Global Net-zero Scenario, we assume the 
Canada Net-zero Scenario also includes the second phase of the LNG Canada 
project beginning in 2029. Total LNG exports reach 3.8 Bcf/d (108.2 106m3/d) in 
in 2030 and continue at that level throughout the projection period. We assume 
higher LNG exports in the Canada Net-zero Scenario because of higher natural 
gas prices and global LNG trade in the IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario. 
LNG exports are the highest in the Current Measures Scenario
LNG Exports reach 4.6 Bcf/d (131.4 106m3/d) in 2034 and staying at that level 
to 2050 in the Current Measures Scenario. In all three scenarios, we assume all 
LNG exports originate from Canada’s west coast. Future LNG development is 
uncertain and could be significantly different than implied by these assumptions.Implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
In early 2022, Russia, a major exporter of oil and natural gas to world 
energy markets, invaded Ukraine. Nations around the world condemned 
the invasion and responded by sanctioning Russian energy exports. 
For example, much of Europe, which relied heavily on Russian natural 
gas, restricted imports. In addition, transportation of Russian natural 
gas to Europe was severely curtailed when the Nord Stream pipeline 
– two offshore pipelines that connect Russia to Germany – reduced 
flows in July 2022, and then was shut down entirely in September 2022 
because of sabotage. These events resulted in an immediate surge in 
global demand for non-Russian oil and natural gas that could last for 
several years.
European countries have also responded by accelerating plans to shift 
to less reliance on oil and natural gas. This acceleration includes new 
policies to speed up the adoption of electric vehicles, enable bigger 
and quicker buildouts of renewable energy, delay the retirement of 
some nuclear power plants, and increase energy efficiency. These are 
in addition to accelerating climate policy action around the world. In 
the WEO2022, the IEA projects that policies in place around the world 
today could cause fossil fuel demand to peak in the mid-2020s and then 
decline.
These developments result in additional uncertainty in modeling 
Canada’s energy system. Canada is major exporter of oil and natural 
gas, and the global market is undergoing significant changes. For a 
detailed discussion of how these events could impact the global energy 
outlook, please see “The global energy crisis” in the IEA’s WEO2022.38
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORNon-energy and land use, land-use change and forestry emissions (LULUCF)
The analysis in EF2023 focuses on energy production, processing, transportation, and consumption in Canada, which currently represents approximately 80% of 
Canada’s GHG emissions (mostly from fossil fuel combustion). 
To depict a net-zero outcome for Canada, however, our analysis requires projections for all GHG emission sources and sinks. There are several human-caused GHG 
emission sources and sinks not directly linked to the energy system. While we do model non-energy emissions from industrial processes and product use, we do not 
model other non-energy GHG emissions in Canada. As a result, we make assumptions about them in our scenarios. Table A.3 describes the non-energy emissions we 
do not model, and the assumptions we make in our scenarios.
Table A.3: 
Non-energy emission assumptions, all scenarios
Emissions source Description6Assumption
Agriculture Emissions related to the production of crops and livestock 
(excludes on-farm fuel use). Agriculture emissions were 54 
MT in 2021.Our projections of agricultural sector output were the primary driver of the agriculture 
emission assumptions. Some potential emissions reductions from adoption of innovative 
agriculture practices are included in the net-zero scenarios.
Current Measures Scenario: 55 MT in 2030 and 59 MT by 2050
Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios: 51 MT in 2030 and 41 MT by 2050 
Waste Emissions from the treatment and disposal of solid and 
liquid wastes, and waste incineration. Waste emissions were 
21 MT in 2021. Our projections of the number of households were the primary driver of the waste 
emission assumptions. We account for the proposed regulations on landfill methane in 
the assumptions of the net-zero scenarios.
Current Measures Scenario: 22 MT in 2030 and 23 MT by 2050 
Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios: 13 MT in 2030 and 11 MT by 2050 
Land use, land-use 
change and forestry 
(LULUCF)Net emissions associated with Canada’s managed lands, 
such as forests and cropland. Land use, land-use change 
and forestry emissions were negative 17 MT in 2021. Our assumptions for land use, land-use change and forestry emissions are based 
on a review of various studies and projections of others, such as recent studies by 
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Canadian Climate Institute, and Institut de 
l’énergie Trottier.
Current Measures Scenario: -13 MT in 2030 and beyond 
Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios: -30 MT in 2030 and -50 MT by 2050 
6 A full description of the types of non-energy emissions is available in Canada’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report.39
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOR
Results
This chapter presents results of the EF2023 projections. 
These projections are not a prediction, but instead 
illustrate possible futures based on the scenarios and 
assumptions described in the previous chapter. 
Many factors and uncertainties will influence future trends. Key uncertainties 
are discussed in each section of this chapter.
The data supporting this discussion, including full data tables for all three 
scenarios, is available in the “Access and Explore Energy Futures Data” 
chapter.
* All dollar figures throughout the report are in Canadian dollars unless stated otherwise.40
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOR
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
In December 2015, most countries in the world, including Canada, 
adopted the Paris Agreement. The overarching goal of the agreement 
is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well 
below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit 
the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” These 
efforts are because the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on 
Climate Change indicates that crossing the 1.5°C threshold risks far 
more severe climate change impacts, including more frequent and 
severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall. Fundamental to achieving 
the goal of the agreement is dramatically reducing global GHG 
emissions. 
Canada’s long-term climate goal is reaching net-zero GHG emissions 
by 2050.7 Given that reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 is the 
central focus of both our net-zero scenarios in EF2023, GHG emission 
trends are vital to our analysis. Around 80% of Canada’s total 
emissions are related to the production and consumption of energy, 
so the GHG emission and energy supply and demand projections in 
EF2023 are tightly linked.
7 The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act
8 2021 emissions data, along with some historical revisions to 1990-2020 data, was released by Environment and Climate Change Canada in April 2023 in the 2023 National Inventory Report. The modeling in EF2023 is based on 
emissions data from the 2022 National Inventory Report, which includes GHG emission data up to 2020. Total emissions shown in EF2023 include Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), which are often negative.
9 Canada reports GHG emissions different formats, including by economic sector. These different categorizations simply allocate GHG emissions into different groupings; there is no difference in the overall magnitude of Canadian 
emissions estimates. The economic sectors allocate emissions to the sector from which they originate.Canada’s GHG emission profile
From 2000 to 2019, Canada’s GHG emissions have fluctuated between just 
below 700 megatonnes (MT) to around 750 MT. In 2020, emissions fell 8% from 
2019 levels. Much of this decrease was a result of lower energy use in response 
to actions to reduce the spread of COVID-19, such as travel restrictions and 
closing businesses. The decrease in emissions from 2019 to 2020 is the largest 
drop in emissions recorded over the period for which data is available (1990 
to 2021). 
In 2021, emissions were 653 MT, or a 1.2% increase from 2020 levels, but 
7.3% lower than in 2019. Figure R.1 shows Canada’s GHG emissions in 2021,8 
categorized by economic sector.9 
Of the sectors in Figure R.1, GHG emissions fell in electricity (-56%), heavy 
industry (-13%), transportation (-4%), and waste and others (-10%) from 2005 
to 2021. GHG emissions increased in oil and gas (+13%), buildings (+2%), and 
agriculture (+8%) over that same period. Consistent with the past 30 years, about 
80% of GHG emissions in 2021 were related to the production and consumption 
of energy, mostly from the combustion of fossil fuels. The remaining 20% of 
emissions are from other activities such as agriculture, waste management, and 
certain industrial processes. 
Canada’s GHG emission profile varies significantly among the provinces and 
territories, as shown in Figure R.2.
Detailed data and a more thorough description of Canada’s GHG emission profile 
can be found in Canada’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report, published 
by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).41
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORFigure R.1: 
GHG emissions by economic sector, 2021
Figure R.2: 
GHG emissions by province and territory, 2021
42
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORGHG emission projections
This section provides an overview of our projections of GHG emissions in all three 
scenarios. The sections that follow explore the energy and GHG emissions trends 
for the individual segments of the energy system.
Net economy-wide GHG emissions fall to zero by 2050 in the Global and Canada 
Net-zero scenarios, which is a pre-determined outcome due to the nature of the 
analysis. Total emission trends are similar in the two scenarios given they share 
similar climate policy assumptions. In the Current Measures Scenario, we project 
emissions to be 566 MT by 2050, 13% lower than 2021 levels. This projection 
of GHG emissions in the Current Measures Scenario only includes policies 
currently in place during the analysis and does not reflect recently announced 
policies that are in development. Figure R.3 shows total net emissions in all 
three scenarios and figure R.4 shows emissions by economic sector in the 
Global Net-zero Scenario.
Figure R.3: 
Total GHG emissions, all scenarios 
43
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORWhich GHG emissions are included in EF2023 
Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) estimate and report their historical GHG emissions according to guidelines 
developed by the UNFCCC. This report is referred to as a country’s National Inventory Report (NIR). The UNFCC’s guidelines for calculating GHG emissions 
aim to make reporting by countries transparent, consistent, comparable, complete, and accurate. ECCC is responsible for preparing and submitting Canada’s 
national GHG inventory to the UNFCCC. 
Each country’s NIR covers emissions (and removals) of GHGs, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and various other gases that have heat-
trapping potential. GHG emissions are calculated as those that occur within a country. For example, if country A produces and exports natural gas to country 
B, any GHG emissions resulting from producing that natural gas (such as the GHG emissions from facilities that process raw natural gas) are attributed to 
country A, while emissions related to the combustion of that natural gas are attributed to country B. 
The historical GHG emissions that we report in EF2023 align with Canada’s NIR. The latest historical emissions data available is from 2021. The GHG emission 
projections in EF2023 are estimates resulting from the Energy Futures Modeling System, relying on inputs based on the scenario premise and assumptions we 
describe in the previous chapter. In various publications, such as the Emission Reduction Plan and Biennial Report to the UNFCCC, ECCC produces the official 
analysis of Canada’s current emissions outlook and performance against its climate commitments.
Figure R.4: 
GHG emissions by economic sector, Global Net-zero Scenario44
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORTable R.1: 
Change in emissions from 2021 to 2050 by economic sector, and key outcomes, Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios 
Sector 2021 2050 Key outcomes – Net-zero scenarios
Global 
Net-zeroCanada 
Net-zero
Total 653 MT 0 MT 0 MT • Domestic and global climate policy assumptions drive most of the emission reductions in both net-zero 
scenarios, which grow in strength over the projection period.
Buildings 87 MT 25 MT 25 MT • Heat pumps steadily replace natural gas and heating oil furnaces.
• Improved efficiency of buildings, reducing overall space heating needs.
Heavy industry 77 MT 19 MT 19 MT • Innovative industry-specific technologies to reduce energy and process GHG emissions. 
• Application of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in industries like chemicals and fertilizers, 
cement, and iron and steel.
• Some switching to low- or non-emitting fuels like electricity, hydrogen, and biofuels.
Transport 150 MT 15 MT 14 MT •  Electric vehicles become the primary mode of on-road passenger transportation.
•  Freight shipping by truck, train, and ship is increasingly fueled by electricity, hydrogen, or biofuels.
•  Aviation emissions are reduced using a mix of bioenergy and hydrogen-based aviation fuel. 
Electricity 52 MT -36 MT -35 MT • Electricity use doubles over the projection period in both net-zero scenarios.
• Rapid growth in low- and non-emitting generation sources, led by wind, natural gas with CCUS, bioenergy 
with CCUS, and nuclear, accompanied by steady growth in solar and hydro. 
• The electricity system decarbonizes and becomes net-negative by 2035 with the deployment of bioenergy 
with CCUS generation facilities.
Oil and gas 189 MT 17 MT 32 MT • Declines in crude oil and natural gas production in the Global Net-zero Scenario, mostly driven by falling 
international demand and prices. Production declines more slowly in the Canada Net-zero Scenario.
• Adoption of CCUS, especially in the oil sands.
• Rapid uptake of processes and technologies to significantly reduce methane emissions from conventional 
oil and natural gas production and processing activities.In both net-zero scenarios, all sectors have much lower emissions by 2050, compared to 2021 levels. Table R.1 shows the GHG emissions in each sector in 2050, 
and briefly describes the transformations that occur in each sector. 45
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORSector 2021 2050 Key outcomes – Net-zero scenarios
Global 
Net-zeroCanada 
Net-zero
Low-emitting 
hydrogen 
production0 MT -21 MT -25 MT • To meet growing hydrogen demand from domestic and international markets, hydrogen production grows 
significantly.
• Low or non-emitting hydrogen is produced from electricity, natural gas, and biomass.
• Coupled with CCUS, production of hydrogen using biomass results in net-negative emissions from the 
sector. 
Direct air capture 
(DAC)0 MT -46 MT -55 MT • DAC technology is deployed later in the projection period, offsetting particularly difficult-to-reduce GHG 
emissions from other sectors.
Agriculture 69 MT 50 MT 49 MT • We assume GHG emissions from agriculture decline somewhat with the adoption of innovative agricultural 
practices.
Waste and others 
(coal production, 
light manufacturing, 
construction, and 
forest resources)47 MT 26 MT 26 MT • We assume emissions from waste decline, in part due to proposed regulations that aim to reduce landfill 
methane emissions.
Land Use, Land-
Use Change and 
Forestry (LULUCF)-17 MT -50 MT -50 MT • We assume LULUCF emissions are net-negative in 2050, based on a review of various studies and 
projections by other organizations.
46
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOREnergy demand
This section first discusses secondary10 (or “end-use”) energy demand11 
projections by reviewing energy use by sector of the economy and their 
associated GHG emissions. We then describe the primary energy demand12 
projections. End-use demand includes consumption of energy, including electricity 
and hydrogen, but not the energy used to produce electricity and hydrogen. 
We make projections about energy demand by simulating the energy choices of 
households and businesses, including the energy technologies and fuels they use. 
Economic activity, population growth, technology characteristics, energy prices, 
and climate policies all influence the model’s outcomes. 
Our energy demand projections also rely on projections about the need for 
energy services. Energy services are not the energy or technologies we use, but 
rather the things that energy enables us to do, like heat our homes, travel from 
place to place, or run equipment at a business. This includes projections of the 
output from various industries, the number of homes and businesses requiring 
heating and cooling, and the number of kilometres that passengers and goods 
move. The eventual level of energy services required may be different than in our 
scenarios, which would impact our projections of energy use. 
In all three scenarios, energy use increases in the near term
We estimate Canadian end-use energy demand increased 4% in 2022, largely a 
result of increasing industrial and oil and gas activity, as well as a return to near 
pre-pandemic transportation levels. We project that demand growth continues in 
2023 and 2024, but at a slower pace. 
10 Energy used by final consumers for residential, agricultural, commercial, industrial and transportation purposes. It excludes the energy used to generate electricity, which is included under primary demand.
11 That energy is accounted for in primary energy demand. Historical energy demand data is sourced primarily from Statistics Canada’s Report on Energy Supply and Demand in Canada. This data is supplemented with additional details 
from ECCC, Natural Resources Canada, and various provincial data sources.
12 Primary demand is the total energy used in Canada, including energy to produce electricity and hydrogen.In the long term, energy use falls in both net-zero scenarios
While we project continuing economic and population growth, end-use demand 
declines by 22% from 2021 to 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario and 12% 
in the Canada Net-zero Scenario. As we describe in the following sections, this 
decline is largely due to switching to different technologies and fuels, more efficient 
use of energy, and lower activity levels in some sectors. In particular, switching 
from fossil fuels to electricity can reduce overall energy demand significantly 
because electric devices often use energy more efficiently. For example, 30% 
or less of the energy in gasoline is used to propel vehicles with much of the 
remainder being lost to heat. In an electric vehicle (EV), much more of the energy 
stored in the vehicle’s battery is converted to movement. The combined impact 
of these changes reduces Canada’s energy intensity. The energy intensity of the 
economy, often measured as energy use per $ of real gross domestic product, 
declines by 2.2% per year in the Global Net-zero Scenario, and 1.7% per year in 
the Canada Net-zero Scenario. Energy intensity has typically fallen about 1% per 
year on average in recent decades.
In the Current Measures Scenario, energy use is relatively stable 
In the Current Measures Scenario, energy use is relatively stable until 2040. 
After 2040, energy use begins slowly increasing again. This increase is because 
climate policies do not strengthen beyond 2030, but the economy and population 
continue to grow, increasing energy use. Figure R.5 shows the changes in end-
use energy demand in each scenario. 47
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIn all scenarios, households and businesses continue to receive the energy 
services much like they do today, like being able to reliably heat their homes 
or travel from place to place. As described in the following sections, we 
project considerable changes to the types of fuels and technologies that 
power the energy system in the future, but little change to the energy services 
Canadians receive.Figure R.5: 
Change in end-use energy demand by sector, 2021 to 2050, all scenarios
KEY TRENDS
Energy demand
• Rapid adoption of devices that use electricity, 
like EVs and heat pumps in the net-zero 
scenarios.
• In both net-zero scenarios, clean fuels such 
as hydrogen and bioenergy, along with CCUS, 
play an increasing role in areas that are harder 
to electrify.
• Energy efficiency improves steadily over the 
projection period.48
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORResidential and commercial
The residential sector made up 13% of Canada’s end-use energy demand, 
and 6% of its GHG emissions in 2021. The commercial sector, which includes 
buildings like offices, restaurants, and schools, made up 11% of Canada’s 
end-use energy demand, and 7% of its GHG emissions in 2021. Most energy 
use in both sectors is electricity and natural gas, and in some regions refined 
petroleum products (RPPs) and biomass are also key fuels. When combined, 
GHG emissions in both sectors are referred to as the “buildings sector” for the 
purposes of GHG emission reporting. GHGs in the buildings sector are primarily 
the result of burning natural gas and fuel oil for heating buildings and water.
In the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios, we project that energy use 
patterns change considerably in both sectors. The electrification of space and 
water heating, along with rapid improvements in the efficiency of buildings, are 
core to this sector’s transformation. 
In the Global Net-zero Scenario, we project that building shell efficiency (or how 
well buildings resist losing heated or cooled air to the outside environment) of 
the entire residential building stock improves by 50% from 2021 to 2050. In the 
commercial sector, this improvement is slightly slower at 43%. Efficiency gains 
are driven by energy retrofits of existing buildings and increasingly strict building 
codes for new buildings, with all new homes built to a “net-zero-ready” standard 
by 2030. Efficiency improvements are similar in the Canada Net-zero Scenario. 
These efficiency improvements are important because residential and commercial 
floorspace both grow around 50% over the projection period as new houses 
and buildings are built. In the Current Measures Scenario, less ambitious policy 
measures result in slower improvements in efficiency.
49
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORFuel-switching is necessary to achieve net-zero
In both net-zero scenarios, efficiency improvements support achieving net-
zero, but switching existing fossil fuel heating devices to non-emitting options 
is necessary to achieve net-zero emissions. In many regions, heating needs are 
currently met with natural gas or heating oil furnaces. Due to our assumptions 
about climate policies and technology cost reductions, electric heat pumps 
steadily become the device of choice when households and businesses replace 
their furnaces. Heat pumps also grow in regions that currently rely heavily on 
electric baseboard heating. Because heat pumps are very energy efficient, 
switching from baseboard heating to heat pumps helps limit electric demand 
growth in the building sector. Currently, heat pumps are gaining popularity 
in some regions in Canada but are used sparingly in many regions. More 
information about the characteristics of heat pumps is in the text box “Spotlight 
on Heat Pumps.” Importantly, our projections are based on parameters about the 
willingness of households and businesses to adopt new technologies like heat 
pumps. However, societal preferences change over time, which could change 
the adoption rates of heat pumps, or any of the other technologies we discuss in 
this chapter. 
Heat pump use increases in both net-zero scenarios, but some gas and oil 
furnaces remain
In both net-zero scenarios, heat pumps provide about 50% of residential 
space heating needs by 2050, up from 6% in 2021, as shown in Figure R.6. 
This is similar in the commercial sector as heat pumps provide around half 
of space heating needs by 2050. While heat pumps dominate new heating 
technology installations by the mid-2030s, the rate of change in the residential 
and commercial sectors tends to be slow as most households and businesses 
usually replace devices near the end of their useful lives. As a result, we project 
that some natural gas and heating oil furnaces remain in 2050 in both net-zero 
scenarios. Efficiency improvements and blending fossil fuels with low-carbon fuels 
such as hydrogen and renewable natural gas helps reduce the emissions from 
these buildings. By 2050, approximately 13% of the energy used in gas-fired 
residential and commercial space and water heating is renewable natural gas, 
and 7% hydrogen.
50
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORSpotlight on heat pumps
Electric heat pumps are a key technology for building decarbonization in our net-zero scenarios. 
Heat pumps have been used globally for decades and most Canadians already have technologies 
that operate under the same principles in their homes: refrigerators and air conditioners. Heat 
pumps work by moving heat from one space (a source) to another (a sink). The two most common 
sources for heat pumps are the outside air and the ground. Electricity is used to transfer heat from 
the air or ground to a sink, either the indoor air or water of a building. This process can be reversed 
so that the building acts as a source and the air or ground acts as a sink, cooling the building 
instead of heating it. Therefore, heat pumps can be used year-round in Canada to regulate indoor 
temperatures.
Since heat pumps move heat instead of generating it, they can achieve efficiencies far beyond 
those of conventional heating methods like a natural gas furnace. Heat pumps currently on the 
market can achieve efficiencies of 300-550% depending on the temperature of the source and the 
size of the heat pump. 
Air-source heat pumps are lower cost and cheaper to install than ground-source heat pumps and 
subsequently makeup most of the installed heat pumps across Canada, both now and in our 
scenarios. However, as the outside air temperature decreases, air source heat pumps become 
less efficient. Currently, cold climate air-source heat pumps can still achieve efficiencies of 180% 
at -15°C and still function well up to -25°C. Below this temperature, however, they have difficulty 
supplying enough heat to a home. As temperatures decrease, homes lose heat more quickly and 
more energy is required to extract heat from the air.
Canadians that live in climates that drop below -25°C and wish to install heat pumps have two 
options to heat their homes even on the coldest of days. First, when installing a heat pump, they 
can leave their current heating system as a backup or install a new backup at the same time. This 
backup can be any conventional technology used to heat a home, such as a natural gas furnace 
or electric resistance heating. Secondly, Canadians can choose to invest in a ground-source heat 
pump instead. Even in the coldest climates in Canada, the ground retains significantly more heat 
than the air and therefore can efficiently provide heat all winter.
Further information on heat pumps including functionality, technical specifications, and installation 
is available from Natural Resources Canada’s Heating and Cooling With a Heat Pump.
51
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORFigure R.6: 
Residential space heating by technology, Global Net-zero Scenario
Total energy use in the residential sector declines by 22% from 2021 to 2050 
in the Global Net-zero and Canada Net-zero scenarios. While overall demand 
decreases, electricity use grows at 1.2% per year over the projection period, 
largely because of steady growth of electric heating with heat pumps. As more 
homes switch to heat pumps and electric hot water heating, demand for natural 
gas falls steadily. In the Global Net-zero Scenario, residential natural gas demand 
is 72% lower in 2050 compared to 2021, and 73% lower in the Canada Net-zero 
Scenario. Energy use from at-home charging of EVs is accounted for in the 
transportation sector, which we describe later in this chapter.
In the Current Measures Scenario, the residential and commercial sectors show 
steady improvements in efficiency plus some switching to electricity-based 
heating. However, the pace of change is much slower than in the net-zero 
scenarios. Natural gas demand in these sectors declines by 18% from 2021 
to 2050, while electricity use also increases at a pace similar to the past two 
decades. Figure R.7 shows total electricity and natural gas demand in the Global 
Net-zero and Current Measures scenarios. 
Residential and commercial GHG emissions
GHG emissions from residential and commercial buildings follow the energy 
demand trends we describe above. GHG emissions from the buildings sector 
track closely to the volume of natural gas and heating oil used. In the Global 
Net-zero Scenario, GHG emissions in the buildings sector fall from 87 MT in 2021 
to 25 MT in 2050, a 71% decrease, with very similar reductions in the Canada 
Net-zero Scenario. In both net-zero scenarios, emissions from the buildings 
sector remain positive in 2050, but Canada overall achieves net-zero due to 
negative emissions occurring in other sectors. In the Current Measures Scenario, 
emissions decline more slowly in the buildings sector, reaching 64 MT in 2050, 
a 27% decline. Figure R.7: 
Combined residential and commercial buildings energy use by fuel, Global 
Net-zero and Current Measures scenarios
52
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIndustrial
The industrial sector accounted for 54% of Canada’s end-use energy demand 
in 2021, making it the largest in terms of energy use. The industrial sector is 
diverse, with several sub-sectors, including oil and natural gas, and various heavy 
industries like cement, pulp and paper, and iron and steel. The sector is also 
diverse in terms of energy use, with natural gas making up the largest share of 
fuel use at 49% in 2021, followed by RPPs (28%), electricity (14%), and biofuels 
(8%). The main use of energy in the industrial sector is to produce heat, which 
is used in different industrial processes. Energy commodities such as RPPs and 
natural gas liquids are also used as non-energy feedstock in sectors such as 
chemicals and fertilizer production.
Industrial GHG emissions are mainly from oil and gas and heavy industry
In 2021, the oil and natural gas sector emitted 189 MT, 29% of Canada’s total 
emissions. Heavy industry made up 12% of total emissions in 2021, or 77 MT. 
This section focuses mostly on the energy use and GHG emission trends in heavy 
industry. We describe the trends for the oil and natural gas sector in the “Oil and 
natural gas production” section.
In both net-zero scenarios, new technology, CCUS, and fuel switching are 
key changes in heavy industry
In the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios, the changes that occur in the 
sector to reduce GHG emissions is varied due to unique processes specific 
to each industrial subsector. However, the primary factors driving change are 
technological innovation, the application of CCUS technology, and fuel switching. 
In heavy industry, there are two major emissions sources: emissions from the 
combustion of fossil fuels to create high temperature heat and process emissions 
that occur from chemical or physical reactions in the production process itself. 
53
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORLower costs and stronger climate policies drive new technology 
deployment
New industrial technologies are adopted in the net-zero scenarios as they 
become more widely available at lower costs, and as producers look for options 
to respond to strengthening climate policies. For example, in the aluminum 
production sector, the use of inert anodes becomes an increasingly economic 
choice. Compared to carbon anodes, the benefit of inert anodes is that carbon 
dioxide (CO2) is no longer released as a byproduct of the aluminum smelting 
process. 
Another example of technology innovation occurs in the iron and steel industry. 
Most new steel produced in Canada occurs by reacting iron ore with coal, which 
creates both combustion and process emissions. In both net-zero scenarios, iron 
and steel producers use a mix of technologies that rely on electricity, natural gas 
with CCUS, and hydrogen to decarbonize the industry. Steel can also be recycled 
using 100% electricity and producers increasingly use this pathway where scrap 
steel is available. 
CCUS becomes an important decarbonization option in the industrial sector
CCUS becomes an important decarbonization option where a production 
process requires high-temperature heat and/or has significant process related 
emissions. CCUS is a suite of technologies that capture CO2 from facilities to 
either store it in geological formations underground or use in other processes, 
like permanent mineralization in concrete. Instead of being permanently stored, 
there are also other potential uses for captured carbon, such as producing 
synthetic fuels.
In heavy industry, several sectors increasingly use CCUS over the projection 
period in both net-zero scenarios, as shown in Figure R.8. We project the heavy 
industry sector captures a total of 6 MT of GHG emissions in 2030, increasing to 
24 MT by 2040 in the Global Net-zero Scenario, after which CCUS in the sector 
is relatively stable. This excludes the carbon captured in the electricity and oil 
and gas sectors, which we describe later in this chapter. In the Canada Net-zero 
Scenario, CCUS plays a similar role in heavy industry.Figure R.8: 
GHG emissions captured using CCUS in heavy industry,  
Global Net-zero Scenario
54
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORFuel-switching is an important trend in both net-zero scenarios
Various climate policies change the relative cost of fuels and industries respond 
by switching to low- or non-emitting energy sources when feasible. As shown in 
Figure R.9, the share of low- or no-carbon energy sources grows steadily over 
the projection period. The use of low-carbon hydrogen as a share of total heavy 
industrial energy demand increases from less than 1% in 2021 to 6% in 2050 in 
the Global Net-zero Scenario, and similar in the Canada Net-zero Scenario. Other 
energy sources, such as electricity, biomass, biofuels, and renewable natural gas, 
increase their share in both net-zero scenarios. These low- or no-carbon energy 
sources offset energy from fossil fuels, whose combined share of the heavy 
industrial sector’s energy use falls from around 60% of energy use in 2021 to 
32% in 2050.
Figure R.9: 
Share of energy type in the industrial sector, excluding the oil and natural 
gas sector, Global Net-zero Scenario
55
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOREnergy use changes are much slower in the Current Measures Scenario 
In the Current Measures Scenario, energy use in the industrial sector undergoes 
some change, such as efficiency improvements and some limited applications 
of CCUS. However, the pace of change is much slower than in both net-zero 
scenarios. This is because of our assumptions about climate policies and 
technology costs in this scenario give less incentive for industries to change their 
energy use patterns.
Total industrial energy use increases less than 10% in both net-zero 
scenarios
We project total energy use in the heavy industry sector to be relatively flat in 
both net-zero scenarios, increasing less than 10% from 2021 to 2050, compared 
to nearly 20% in the Current Measures Scenario. New technologies and energy 
efficiency improvements reduce energy use in the sector.
In the Global Net-zero Scenario, total energy use in the entire industrial sector, 
including energy use in  oil and gas, light industry, and for direct air capture 
processes, declines by 27% to 2050. Declining energy use for oil and natural gas 
production drives this trend and is partly offset by the emergence of direct air 
capture (DAC) facilities later in the projection period, which use large amounts of 
electricity and natural gas. In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, oil and natural gas 
production are higher and total industrial energy use is higher than the Global 
Net-zero Scenario, but still declines by 10% by 2050. In the Current Measures 
Scenario, total industrial energy use grows steadily, although somewhat slower 
than over the past two decades. 
Figure R.10 shows total industrial demand by fuel in the Global Net-zero 
Scenario. By 2050, the share of electricity, clean fuels such as bioenergy and 
hydrogen, and fossil fuels with CCUS more than triples from current levels. Figure R.10: 
Total industrial energy use by fuel, Global Net-zero Scenario
Industrial GHG emissions
The key trends we describe in the previous section, technological innovation, 
CCUS, and fuel switching, result in steadily decreasing GHG emissions from the 
heavy industry sector in both net-zero scenarios. In both net-zero scenarios, 
emissions decline by nearly 75% from 2021 levels. This implies that heavy 
industry GHG emissions are positive in 2050, although Canada still achieves net-
zero due to negative emissions occurring in other sectors. Emissions fall by 15% 
in the Current Measures Scenario.
DAC facilities, which we consider to be a part of the broader industrial sector, 
result in net-negative emissions by 2050 in both net-zero scenarios. Emissions 
from the oil and gas sector drop significantly in both net-zero scenarios. We 
describe our energy use and GHG emission results for both of these sectors later 
in this chapter. 56
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORTransportation
The transportation sector accounted for 21% of Canada’s end-use energy 
demand in 2021. This demand includes energy used to transport people and 
goods using a variety of modes, including on-road vehicles, rail, airplanes, 
and boats. Almost all energy use in this sector is RPPs derived from crude oil. 
Gasoline, the primary fuel for on-road passenger vehicles, made up 53% of total 
transportation demand in 2021. In the freight sector, diesel is the most common 
fuel, making up 32% of total transportation demand in 2021. Aviation fuel, 
biofuels, and heavy fuel oil made up much of the remaining energy use in 2021. 
Electricity is a small but growing portion of energy demand in the transportation 
sector. 
The transportation sector’s GHG emissions in 2021 were 150 MT, or nearly a 
quarter of Canada’s total emissions. Emissions from the sector have declined by 
4% since 2005. Transporting passengers accounted for 57% of GHG emissions 
in the transportation sector, with freight making up 33% and the remaining 
emissions coming from off-road vehicles.
Passenger transportation
In both our net-zero scenarios, the primary change in the passenger 
transportation sector is the movement towards electric passenger vehicles and 
away from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Emissions from ICE vehicles 
remaining on the road also decline.The use of EVs increases substantially in all scenarios
EV sales, including plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs), made up over 8% 
of all vehicles sales in Canada in 2022, up from 2% in 2018. We project this 
trend to accelerate in the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios, with nearly all 
passenger vehicle sales being EVs by 2035. However, the total stock of vehicles 
on the road changes more slowly, as vehicles can stay on the road for 15 or more 
years. Though sales of new ICE vehicles are nearly zero by 2035, there are some 
older vehicles on the road by 2050 in both net-zero scenarios. In the Current 
Measures Scenario, EV sales grow at a slower rate than in the net-zero scenarios 
but still become a competitive choice for consumers, making up 50% of all 
vehicle sales by 2035, and 75% in 2050. Figure R.11 shows the share of EV sales 
and passenger vehicles on the road that are EVs in the Global Net-zero Scenario.
The electrification of the passenger vehicle fleet is driven by the policies we 
assume in the net-zero scenarios. The federal mandatory zero-emission vehicle 
sales targets and similar policies in British Columbia (BC) and Quebec, federal 
and provincial EV incentives, and increasing carbon pricing all increase the 
availability and cost-effectiveness of EVs compared to ICE vehicles. In addition, 
we assume the costs of batteries, which are major component of the cost of EVs, 
decline over the projection period. 
Emissions from the remaining ICE vehicles decrease significantly 
While EVs gain an increasing market share over the projection period, emissions 
from ICE vehicles also decline in all three scenarios. Policies, including Canada’s 
light-duty vehicle GHG emissions standards and Clean Fuel Regulations, result 
in lower overall emissions per kilometre travelled by ICE vehicles. This includes 
greater blending of biofuels into the liquid fuel supply and better fuel efficiency of 
new ICE vehicles. Combined with wide-scale adoption of EVs, the emissions per 
kilometre travelled by passenger vehicles fall by around 95% in both the Global 
and Canada Net-zero scenarios from 2021 to 2050. In addition to the switch to 
EVs, public transportation continues to play a key role in moving people. Transit is 
increasingly powered by electricity and bioenergy in the net-zero scenarios.57
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORAir travel emissions reduce due to aircraft efficiency improvements and use 
of clean fuels
In all three scenarios, demand for aviation fuel recovers to pre-pandemic levels 
by 2023. In the Global Net-zero Scenario, we project energy use for passenger 
aviation remains relatively stable after 2023 as newer, more efficient aircraft help 
to improve fuel efficiency of air travel, and the trends are similar in the Canada 
Net-zero Scenario. In the net-zero scenarios the main source of GHG emissions 
reductions in the sector are through increased use of biofuels and hydrogen-
based fuels. 
Passenger transportation energy use declines across all scenarios
Led by large-scale adoption of EVs, we project total energy use in the passenger 
transportation sector to decline by 43% from 2021 to 2050 in the Global Net-
zero Scenario and similar levels in the Canada Net-zero Scenario. This drop in 
energy use is largely due to EVs being far more energy-efficient compared to 
ICE vehicles13. By 2050, electricity makes up nearly 50% of the energy use in the 
passenger transportation sector in both net-zero scenarios, up from below 1% in 
2021. Low-carbon aviation fuel, conventional jet fuel, gasoline, and ethanol make 
up much of the remaining fuel mix in 2050. In the Current Measures Scenario, 
passenger transportation energy use declines slowly after rebounding to pre-
pandemic levels in 2023. Increasing number of EVs and improving efficiency of 
ICE vehicles are reasons for this decline.
13 CER Market Snapshot: Battery electric vehicles are far more fuel efficient than vehicles with internal combustion enginesFigure R.11: 
EVs as a share of total vehicle sales and vehicles on the road,  
Global Net-zero Scenario 
58
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORFreight transportation
In both net-zero scenarios, we project a few key shifts in the energy use and 
technologies used to transport goods. Electric trucks and vans increase 
significantly in some segments of the freight sector but in the heavy freight sector 
we project that other options are viable, including increasing use of hydrogen 
fuel cell technology. Biofuels also become an economically attractive fuel in the 
net-zero scenarios, providing a low-carbon fuel that can be used in existing diesel 
engines, or blended with fossil fuel-derived diesel to reduce the emission intensity 
of that fuel. 
Light-duty freight vehicles are typically used to move smaller loads over relatively 
short distances. In both net-zero scenarios, electric trucks and vans gradually 
become the most economic choice of vehicle to serve this purpose. Nearly all 
light-duty freight vehicle sales are electric by 2040 in both net-zero scenarios.Hydrogen-based vehicle use grows significantly in the heavy freight sector 
in the net-zero scenarios.
For heavier freight, electric-powered vehicles take a share of the market in 
our net-zero scenarios, as do other technologies. A robust hydrogen supply 
develops in both net-zero scenarios, in part due the demand for hydrogen 
to use in trucks, rail locomotives, and marine vessels equipped with fuel cell 
technology. Fuel cells convert hydrogen to electricity, which then drives electric 
motors. Compared to batteries, compressed hydrogen paired with fuel cells is 
more energy-dense, which is beneficial when moving heavy goods over long 
distances. The use of hydrogen in the freight sector grows from nearly 0.5 MT in 
2030 to almost 5 MT in 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario, with slightly more 
in the Canada Net-zero Scenario. Electricity demand for freight transportation 
reaches over 90 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario. 
Given the relatively high efficiency of EVs, this represents a large portion of freight 
activity. Unlike the passenger sector, where electrification of personal vehicles 
has significant momentum, the relative mix of technologies in the freight sector is 
more uncertain. Depending how technologies and markets evolve, we may see 
more or less hydrogen, electricity, or other clean fuels in the future. We explore 
this uncertainty further in the “What if” case for hydrogen supply and demand, 
located in the hydrogen results section.
59
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORRenewable diesel use grows to 35% of the diesel fuel supply by 2050 in the 
Global Net-zero Scenario
We also project steady growth of biofuel use in the freight sector. The most 
common biofuels used today are ethanol and biodiesel. These biofuels are often 
blended into petroleum-based fuels for use in ICE vehicles. However, the rate at 
which these fuels can be blended into the petroleum-based fuel stream is limited, 
usually anywhere from 5 to 20% depending on the characteristics of the engine. 
In the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios, renewable diesel, often referred 
to as hydrogenation-derived renewable diesel, emerges as the leading biofuel 
over the projection period. Renewable diesel is chemically equivalent to diesel 
derived from fossil fuels. This means it is a “drop-in” biofuel and can be used as a 
direct replacement for petroleum-based diesel or blended at a much higher ratio 
than biodiesel. Renewable diesel can be derived from many different processes, 
allowing a diverse set of biomass feedstocks to be used. By 2030, in the Global 
Net-zero Scenario, we project renewable diesel’s share of the diesel fuel supply to 
reach 7%, then grow to 35% by 2050.  
In the Current Measures Scenario, the freight sector gradually becomes 
more efficient, with improvements mostly focused on engine efficiency and 
aerodynamics. We also project much lower uptake of electric and hydrogen fuel 
cell vehicles, and less use of biofuels. 
Freight energy use decreases in the net-zero scenarios, and increases in 
the Current Measures Scenario 
Total energy use in the freight transportation sector increases in the near 
term as shipping volumes recover to pre-pandemic levels. In the longer term, 
demand trends downward in both net-zero scenarios. This decrease is primarily 
due to growth of electric and hydrogen fuel cell freight vehicles, both of which 
are more energy efficient compared to ICE vehicles. This effect is partially offset 
by steadily growing demand for freight transportation services. In the Current 
Measures Scenario, energy use in the freight sector increases by 25% over the 
projection period. 
Figure R.12 shows end-use demand by fuel in the transportation sector, including 
passenger, freight and off-road energy use in the Global Net-zero Scenario, and 
total end-use demand in the other two scenarios.
60
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORTransportation GHG emissions
Emissions from the transportation sector decline steeply in both net-zero 
scenarios while staying relatively flat in the Current Measures Scenario. We 
project that GHG emissions in the Global Net-zero Scenario fall by 90% from 
2021 to 2050, and to a similar level in the Canada Net-zero Scenario. In both net-
zero scenarios, these reductions are driven by our assumptions about policies like 
the federal mandatory zero-emission vehicle sales targets and steadily increasing 
economy-wide carbon pricing. Declining costs of certain technologies such as 
batteries in EVs and hydrogen vehicles also factor into our projections. While 
Canada achieves net-zero by 2050 in our net-zero scenarios, some emissions 
from the transportation sector remain in 2050, mainly in the aviation and freight 
sectors. In the Current Measures Scenario, emissions fall steadily after 2025, 
with continued emission reductions in the passenger sector offsetting growing 
emissions in the freight sector. Figure R.12: 
Transportation sector end-use demand by fuel, Global Net-zero Scenario
61
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORPrimary energy demand
In this analysis, primary demand is the total amount of energy used in Canada. 
Primary demand is calculated by adding the energy used to generate electricity14 
and hydrogen to total end-use demand, and then subtracting the end-use 
demand for electricity and hydrogen. Primary demand is higher than end-use 
demand due to factors such as heat loss in thermal electric generation, and the 
energy required for the hydrogen production process. 
In both net-zero scenarios, total primary demand falls, largely a result of 
declining fossil fuel use
Coal use continues its current declining trend, largely due to the phase out of 
coal-fired power generation. Demand for RPPs falls, largely due to much greater 
use of electricity in the transportation sector. One source of crude oil demand that 
is relatively stable over the projection period is for non-energy products such as 
asphalt, lubricants, and petrochemical feedstocks.
Natural gas demand declines in both net-zero scenarios, and increases in 
the Current Measures scenario
Natural gas demand falls due to electrification of home heating, less natural gas 
use in the upstream oil and natural gas sectors, and efficiency improvements in 
the residential and industrial sectors. The decrease in natural gas demand is less 
than for coal and RPPs, as we project that natural gas becomes increasingly 
used in the power generation sector when coupled with CCUS, and as a 
feedstock for hydrogen production. In the Current Measures Scenario, primary 
energy demand is relatively flat until 2040, before increasing in the last decade 
of the projection period. Figure R.13 shows primary demand by fuel for all three 
scenarios.
14 Including fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewable energy. See Figure R.25 for a breakdown of these demands.
62
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORFigure R.13: 
Primary energy demand by fuel, all scenarios
KEY UNCERTAINTIES
Energy demand
• Energy use drivers: The need for energy in each sector is driven by our projections of activity in that sector, like economic output of various industries or 
population growth. Different outcomes for any of the energy use drivers could impact the long-term energy outlook.
• Technology: We make assumptions about the costs of various energy technologies in the future. Costs that are different than we assume will change the 
decision-making of energy users and the energy use projections in our scenarios. We explore some of these uncertainties in the “What if” cases throughout 
this report. 
• Behavioural change: Energy users’ decision-making changes as societal preferences change over time. For example, preferences could evolve towards 
more or less dense cities, more remote work, or bigger or smaller homes, all of which can influence energy use projections.
63
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORElectricity
Canada’s electricity system is currently among the lowest emitting in the world, 
with 81% of the sector’s generation coming from low- or non-emitting sources. 
This is largely due to Canada’s hydroelectric generation resources, which 
supplied over 61% of Canada’s electricity in 2021. Nuclear generation and, 
increasingly, wind and solar, also contribute to Canada’s high proportion of non-
emitting power generation. 
To develop the electricity production projections in EF2023, we rely on a model 
that simulates the operations and the investment decisions of the electricity 
sector, while also ensuring reliability of the system. The model builds new 
generation, storage and transmission infrastructure based on minimizing the 
total system costs throughout the projection period. We also incorporate our 
assumptions about policies and the costs and operational characteristics 
of various generation technologies. Factors beyond these can impact the 
development of a wide array of energy projects, including electricity projects. 
Examples include concerns about air quality, safety, noise, competing land-uses, 
or visual impacts. Societal preferences and how they may evolve in the future, 
are largely beyond the scope of our analysis but have potential to impact the 
projections for any of the electricity generation technologies we describe in this 
section. 
64
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORKEY TRENDS
Electricity
• Electricity use more than doubles over the projection period in 
both net-zero scenarios.
• We project the most growth in wind generation in all scenarios, 
including the Current Measures Scenario, despite less ambitious 
climate policies and more modest technology cost improvements.
• The electricity system decarbonizes and becomes net-negative by 
2035 with the deployment of BECCS generation facilities.
Electricity use
As described in the “Energy demand” section of this chapter, we project that 
electricity demand grows significantly in all end-use sectors in both net-zero 
scenarios. This growth is driven by wide-scale adoption of EVs and heat pumps, 
and electrification of some industrial activities. In addition, as we describe in more 
detail in the “Hydrogen” section of this chapter, hydrogen production becomes 
a significant source of new electricity demand in the future. Finally, we project 
construction of direct air capture (DAC) facilities, which become another new 
source of electricity demand later in the projection period. We describe the role of 
DAC in the “Negative emissions” section later in this chapter. 
Figure R.14 shows electricity demand by sector in the Global Net-zero Scenario. 
Overall, we project electricity demand to grow 120% from 2021 to 2050 in 
the Global Net-zero Scenario, and 135% in the Canada Net-zero Scenario. 
In both scenarios, the annual rate of demand growth is almost triple that of the 
1995 to 2019 period. In the Current Measures Scenario, electricity demand 
grows more slowly than in the net-zero scenarios, increasing by 62% over the 
projection period.Canada’s electricity system is regionally diverse
The generation mix in each province and territory is largely determined by the 
resources it has available. Quebec, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, 
Yukon, and BC have significant amounts of hydro generation, whereas Alberta, 
Saskatchewan, and remote and northern communities rely more on fossil fuel 
generation. Ontario and New Brunswick both have diverse electricity mixes, 
including nuclear. This regional diversity means that the emission reduction 
pathways in our net-zero scenarios are unique to each region’s specific 
circumstances. 
The electricity sector has exhibited the greatest reduction in emissions among 
Canada’s major sectors, cutting emissions by more than half from 2005 to 
2021. Many provinces reduced emissions from this sector during that time, with 
the biggest reductions from Ontario and Alberta. Ontario phased out coal-fired 
generation by 2015 and Alberta is likely to do so by the end of 2023. In total, the 
electricity sector accounted for 8% of Canada’s emissions in 2021.
Electricity use increases while emissions decrease in the net-zero scenarios
In the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios, electricity becomes the 
cornerstone of Canada’s energy system. In both scenarios we project the 
amount of electricity generated and consumed in Canada in 2050 more than 
doubles from current levels. While the need for electricity grows, we project the 
electricity system also reduces emissions to net-zero by 2035 in both scenarios. 
This reduction in emissions is led by growth in wind, nuclear, hydroelectric, and 
natural gas-fired generation with CCUS, and the phase out of coal-fired electricity 
generation. After 2035, GHG emissions from the electricity sector become net-
negative, meaning the sector removes more emissions than it emits through 
deployment of bioenergy coupled with CCUS technology (BECCS). 65
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOROur electricity projections are also influenced by changes in day-to-day and 
seasonal electricity use patterns. As new uses of electricity emerge, the annual 
peak in electricity demand in a system will likely change. This change will 
influence how electricity systems evolve as utilities and system operators need to 
reliably meet the annual peak in electricity demand, which might occur for only an 
hour or two in a year.
In both net-zero scenarios, the annual hourly peak of electricity demand 
grows in all regions
This increase is because of growing electricity use overall, but also growing use of 
devices that increase electricity use more during a certain period during the day 
or in a particular season. For example, EVs typically draw relatively large amounts 
of electricity over a short period when owners plug them in. Similarly, greater use 
of heat pumps means that overall electricity demand is more sensitive to weather 
than it is now. Figure R.14: 
Electricity use by sector, Global Net-zero Scenario
What if electricity vehicle charging patterns result in higher peak 
electricity demand?
Sales of EVs in Canada have quickly increased in recent years, reaching 
over 8% of total vehicle sales in 2022. While ICE vehicles rely on RPPs 
like gasoline and diesel as their source of energy, EVs are powered by 
electricity stored in large batteries, which drive electric motors, propelling 
the vehicle. EV batteries are charged using the same electricity grid we 
use to power other aspects of our daily lives. 
EVs need more electricity than most other household devices
Most currently available EVs consume about 3,000 to 6,000 kilowatt-
hours (kWh) in a year based on 20,000 km of driving. A new refrigerator 
uses about 500 kWh per year. Currently, most EV charging occurs 
through a charger installed in a garage or at a dedicated public charging 
station. Most EV charging occurs at a fairly high rate of power transfer 
in order to charge batteries quickly. Most home chargers can charge a 
depleted battery in 4 to 12 hours. Many public EV charging stations are 
much quicker than home chargers.
EV owners tend to plug their vehicles into chargers when they arrive 
home. For many drivers, this is often in the late afternoon when they 
return from work. Residential electricity demand is often already high 
during these hours, including higher use of stoves and electronics. It is 
also often the hottest part of the day in the summer, meaning more air 
conditioning units may be running. If charging patterns are not managed 
as the share of EVs grows, EV charging could contribute to much higher 
electricity use during peak times. The level of peak electricity demand 
throughout the day and over the year affects how electricity systems 
develop. Utilities and system operators need to continually meet the 
electricity needs of users, but also have sufficient capacity to meet 
annual peak electricity demand, which might be for only a few hours in 
a year.66
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORHow EV charging patterns affect peak electricity demand largely depends on 
how much utilities and grid operators can more evenly spread charging out 
across the hours of the day. Charging patterns can be influenced through 
market mechanisms, such as offering consumers lower electricity prices 
during certain hours of the day when demand is lower. Most home chargers 
can be controlled by consumers or grid operators to delay charging to lower 
demand hours.
“What if” EV charging during peak hours is not managed?
In the Global Net-zero Scenario, we assume that a combination of price 
signals, technologies, and behavioural changes result in charging that is 
more evenly spread across the hours of the day. In this “What if” analysis, we 
explore how uncoordinated EV charging might impact the electricity system 
and ultimately the total amount of electricity generating capacity required. 
This analysis, the Uncoordinated Charging Case, models an outcome where 
more drivers charge their EVs during peak hours. 
Peak electricity demand in each province and territory increases throughout 
the projection period in the Global Net-zero Scenario as total electricity 
demand increases and electricity use patterns change. For example, peak 
electricity demand in Ontario was 22.2 gigawatts (GW) in 2021. In the Global 
Net-zero Scenario, peak demand is 177% higher by 2050, reaching 61 GW. 
This increase in peak demand is similar in magnitude in many other provinces 
and territories. 
However, while total electricity use is identical in both cases, peak demands 
by 2050 in most provinces and territories in the Uncoordinated Charging 
Case are between 1 and 5% higher than in the Global Net-zero Scenario. 
Despite this higher peak in demand, the overall impact on system-wide 
needs for new capacity is relatively small, as we project some changes to 
the generation mix compared to the Global Net-zero Scenario, as well as 
changes to the operations of the electricity system.Energy systems become more flexible, potentially accounting for 
uncoordinated charging
Figure R.15 shows an example winter day in 2050, showing hourly electricity 
demand in BC with coordinated and uncoordinated EV charging. The 
emergence of hydrogen as a new source of electricity demand requires 
building more electricity generation capacity. However, hydrogen production 
is a flexible source of electricity demand. During periods of high demand, 
hydrogen production using electricity can be reduced to accommodate 
the needs of the electricity system. That flexibility allows the electricity 
systems in several regions to accommodate the higher peak demand in the 
Uncoordinated Charging Case without significant additional investment in 
generating capacity. 
We project that many provinces utilize this flexibility in both the Global Net-
zero Scenario and Uncoordinated Charging Case to offset peak periods of 
demand. Without this demand flexibility, the difference in peak demand in 
the two scenarios would have been higher, requiring more investment in new 
generation in the Uncoordinated Charging Case. 
Figure R.15: 
Example daily hourly electricity demand in British Columbia by use, winter 
of 2050, Global Net-zero Scenario and Uncoordinated Charging Case
67
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORWind generation increases while solar decreases in the Uncoordinated 
Charging Case
As shown in Figure R.16, compared to the Global Net-zero Scenario, we project 
more wind and less solar generation in the Uncoordinated Charging Case. In 
this case, electricity use is higher during the early evening and lower during the 
day. Because solar generates more during the day than in the evening, solar 
generation is less valuable in the Uncoordinated Charging Case relative to the 
Global Net-zero Scenario and less solar generation is built. Conversely, wind 
tends to blow more during the evening period, so becomes a more valuable 
asset to the electricity system in the Uncoordinated Charging Case. By 2050, 
wind generation is 4% higher in the Uncoordinated Charging Case compared to 
the Global Net-zero Scenario, while solar generation is 32% lower. Natural gas without CCUS is used more often in the Uncoordinated 
Charging Case
Finally, in some provinces, we project higher generation from natural gas with and 
without CCUS. To accommodate the highest peaks in generation throughout 
the year, some provinces have natural gas-generating facilities without CCUS 
that are utilized very rarely in the Global Net-zero Scenario. In the Uncoordinated 
Charging Case these assets are utilized more often in order to meet higher and 
more frequent peaks in electricity demand. As a result of more frequent natural 
gas use, there are slightly higher GHG emissions from the electricity sector in the 
Uncoordinated Charging Case.
Greater use of EVs, along with greater electricity use across the energy system, 
would likely require investments in local distribution system infrastructure to 
ensure sufficient capacity to deliver electricity during high demand periods. 
This need for additional infrastructure could be increased by uncoordinated EV 
charging, but this is beyond the scope of this analysis. The analysis in EF2023, 
and in this “What if,” focuses on the bulk power system and does not model local 
electricity distribution systems.
Figure R.16: 
Difference in generation between the Global Net-zero Scenario  
and the Uncoordinated Charging Case in 2050, by select fuel
68
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORElectricity production
To meet rapidly growing electricity demand while also decarbonizing electricity 
production, we project significant changes to Canada’s electricity system in both 
net-zero scenarios. Our assumptions about policies like carbon pricing and the 
proposed Clean Electricity Regulations mean that almost all electricity-generating 
facilities built over the projection period are low- or non-emitting, or even net-
negative in terms of GHG emissions. Given the diversity of Canada’s electricity 
system today, there is considerable variety in how each region’s electricity system 
evolves in our net-zero scenarios. Technologies deployed include wind, solar, 
hydro, nuclear, fossil fuel with CCUS, and BECCS. Meanwhile, power generation 
from coal and natural gas not equipped with CCUS drops quickly over the first 
decade of the projection and is near zero after 2035. Figure R.17 shows the 
difference in capacity, by fuel, from 2021 to 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario.Figure R.17: 
Change in electricity capacity from 2021 to 2050, by fuel,  
Global Net-zero Scenario
Figure R.18: 
Electricity generation by fuel, all scenarios
We project that electricity production grows more slowly in the Current Measures 
Scenario when compared to the net-zero scenarios. There are also fewer policies 
aimed at reducing the sector’s GHG emissions. Still, while not as dramatic as in 
the net-zero scenarios, in-place policies, along with our assumptions of modest 
technology cost improvements, result in strong growth in low-emitting generation 
sources. Figure R.18 shows electricity generation by fuel in each scenario.69
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORWind and solar 
In all three of the scenarios in EF2023, we project substantial growth of wind 
generation and steady growth of solar. Our modeling suggests that the low 
capital and operating costs of both resources make them among the most 
attractive options for utilities and power producers to increase electricity 
generation to meet growing demand while also reducing GHG emissions.
Onshore wind generation increases significantly in all scenarios
Electricity generation from onshore wind increases the most among all generation 
technologies considered in our analysis. We project that wind generation grows 
ninefold in both the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios, making up over a 
quarter of all electricity produced in Canada by 2050. In the Current Measures 
Scenario, wind generation does not grow as quickly as in the net-zero scenarios, 
but still increases substantially from current levels, and seven times higher 
by 2050.
Onshore wind generation grows the most in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario. 
This is in part due to strong wind resources in these provinces. In addition, wind 
generation often matches periods of high electricity demand in these regions, 
making the energy it generates particularly valuable. For example, in Alberta, it 
is often windier during the winter, coinciding with periods when demand from 
electric heat pumps is also high.
Offshore wind grows in both net-zero scenarios
This technology currently not deployed in Canada, but increasingly used in 
Europe and Asia. Grid-connected offshore generation reaches 23 TWh by 2050. 
All of that generation comes from offshore wind facilities15 built off the coast of 
Nova Scotia. As we discuss in the hydrogen section, additional offshore wind 
capacity is built off the coast of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland & Labrador and 
is directly connected to hydrogen electrolysis facilities aiming to export hydrogen 
to international markets.
15 The CER is the federal regulator responsible for exploration, construction, operation, and decommissioning activities related to renewable energy projects and power lines in Canada’s offshore areas.  
Any inclusion of offshore wind in our projections has no bearing on any regulatory proceeding before the CER related to the development of offshore renewable energy.
70
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORSolar generation grows steadily in all three scenarios 
Like wind, solar generation becomes one of the most economic choices for 
utilities and power producers in most regions. In the Global Net-zero Scenario, 
utility-scale solar generation becomes an important aspect of the electricity 
system in many provinces, with total Canadian generation growing from 2.5 TWh 
of generation in 2021 to 50 TWh in 2050. By 2050, solar generation makes up 
around 5% of total electricity generation in both the Global and Canada Net-zero 
scenarios. In the Current Measures Scenario, solar generation grows at a similar 
rate as in the net-zero scenarios.
We also project steady growth of distributed solar generation installed primarily 
on rooftops of residential and commercial buildings. The growth is driven by 
declining costs and supporting policies such as net-zero building policies and 
voluntary actions by companies to reduce their environmental footprint. Total 
installed rooftop capacity reaches 8.2 GW by 2050, meeting 2.5% of residential 
and commercial electricity demand in the Global Net-zero Scenario. Figure R.19 
shows generation from wind and solar in the Global Net-zero Scenario.Matching electricity supply and demand
Compared to most power generation technologies, wind and solar are unique in 
that their power output is tied to weather patterns, specifically wind speeds and 
sunlight. Other generating technologies, like hydroelectric or fossil fuel-based 
generation, can usually adjust their output, although different resources can 
adjust more quickly and cost effectively than others. This adjustment is important, 
because electricity systems must constantly balance electricity production and 
consumption in real time. 
Electricity consumption can vary significantly over a day and from season 
to season in response to factors like the patterns of daily life and weather 
conditions. Wind and solar become important sources of bulk power in all our 
scenarios but adjustable sources of power remain critical to balancing electricity 
systems. Our modeling takes this necessity into account, ensuring the electricity 
needs of users are met, and regional electricity demand and supply are in 
balance on an hourly basis. Figure R.20 shows our projections of hourly electricity 
demand and generation on two typical days in Alberta in the summer and the 
winter of 2050. 
Figure R.20: 
Example hourly electricity supply and demand in Alberta for a day in 
summer and winter, 2050, Global Net-zero Scenario
Figure R.19: 
Generation from onshore wind, offshore wind, and solar,  
Global Net-zero Scenario
71
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORHydroelectricity
Hydroelectricity is currently the core of many provincial electricity systems, 
making up 90% or more of generation in Newfoundland and Labrador, Manitoba, 
Quebec, and BC. Hydroelectric generation is emission-free, and most facilities 
can vary power generation to help grids balance electricity supply and demand.
Hydroelectric generation grows steadily and at a similar rate in all three 
scenarios
Hydroelectric generation increases around 26% from 2021 to 2050 in each 
scenario. Total hydroelectric generation as a share of total Canadian generation 
falls from 61% in 2021 to 38% in 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario, as other 
generation sources increase more quickly. Our projections of hydroelectric power 
include the Site C project in BC, which is currently under construction. Our 
technology cost assumptions indicate that building a new hydroelectric facility is 
relatively expensive compared to many other options. 
Most growth in hydroelectric power occurs in provinces with existing 
hydroelectric facilities
The geography of those regions presents more opportunities for additional 
hydroelectric projects or expansions. In both net-zero scenarios, hydroelectric 
generating capacity increases the most in Quebec (+11% from 2021 to 2050) 
and Manitoba (+40%). Most hydroelectricity growth comes from projects that are 
currently under construction and projected new developments. The remainder 
comes from upgrades to existing hydroelectricity units. 
72
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORNuclear
Nuclear power is a key component of Ontario and New Brunswick’s electricity 
systems. Nationally, nuclear power generation made up 14% of total electricity 
generation in 2021. 
In all three scenarios, we project nuclear generation to vary over time as some 
of the large nuclear facilities are refurbished, meaning the units are modernized 
to extend their usable life. We assume Ontario’s nuclear fleet is refurbished as 
per the schedule laid out by the Ontario Independent System Operator in its 
2022 Annual Planning Outlook.Figure R.21: 
Nuclear generation by technology, Global Net-zero Scenario
Small modular reactors (SMRs) increase significantly in both net-zero 
scenarios
In all three scenarios, we do not project any new large-scale nuclear facilities are 
built over the projection period, as other generation technologies more cost-
effectively meet growing electricity demand given our assumptions. However, 
in both net-zero scenarios, we project considerable growth for small modular 
reactors (SMRs), particularly in the 2035 to 2050 period. Along with renewable 
technologies, these nuclear SMR units play a pivotal role in Canada’s electricity 
system in the net-zero scenarios. By 2050, generation from SMRs make up 
12% of total electricity generation by 2050 in both net-zero scenarios, with large 
additions in Ontario, Alberta, and BC. In the Current Measures Scenario, nuclear 
generation remains close to current levels through much of the projection period, 
with very limited growth in SMRs. Figure R.21 shows nuclear generation over the 
projection period in the Global Net-zero Scenario.73
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORWhat if small modular reactor (SMR) technology matures less quickly and is more costly?
Canada has a long history with nuclear power, with three large-scale power 
facilities operating in Ontario, and one in New Brunswick. About 14%, or 82 
TWh, of Canada’s electricity came from nuclear power in 2021. Recently, 
some governments, utilities, and power producers have focused on SMRs as 
a potential way to meet future electricity demand growth with a carbon-free 
generation option. In 2020, the Government of Canada released its SMR Action 
Plan, and in 2022 the governments of Ontario, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, 
and Alberta released A Strategic Plan for the Deployment of SMRs. In the fall of 
2022, Ontario Power Generation began site preparation activities and applied to 
the Canada Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission for a license to construct an 
SMR at the existing Darlington nuclear site.
SMRs are an emerging class of nuclear reactors that are smaller than 
conventional nuclear power plants in terms of size and power output. The 
modular aspect of SMRs means many components of a facility are factory-built, 
shortening plant construction times. SMRs can be used to generate electricity 
and to produce steam for some industrial applications such as in-situ oil sands 
operations. 
SMR building costs fall and generation increases in the  
Global Net-zero Scenario
In EF2023, our electricity sector analysis relies on assumptions about the 
costs of various technologies. The electricity model then projects the future 
electricity generating mix based on the demand for electricity and the costs and 
characteristics of a wide range of options to generate electricity. In the Global 
Net-zero Scenario, we assume the capital cost of building and connecting a new 
SMR to the grid is 2022$9,180 per installed kilowatt (kW) of capacity in 2030, 
falling to 2022$7,080/kW in 2050. Given these assumptions, and the costs and characteristics of other generating 
facilities, we project nuclear power generation to more than double from current 
levels by 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario. All of that growth is from SMRs, 
which are almost all built in the post-2035 period. About 52% of this growth 
occurs in Ontario, where the nuclear industry is already well-established, along 
with notable additions of SMRs in Quebec, BC, and Alberta.
Low SMR Case: “What if” SMR building costs remain high?
As SMRs are an emerging technology, there is considerable uncertainty as to 
how much the technology will ultimately cost, especially 25 years or more in the 
future. To explore this uncertainty, we modeled the Low SMR Case, where we 
assume higher capital costs for SMRs than in the Global Net-zero Scenario. In 
the Low SMR Case, we assume that the capital cost of building a new SMR is 
2022$10,170/kW in 2030, falling to 2022$9,173/kW in 2050. 
The results of this analysis suggest that higher costs for SMRs translates into 
less investment in SMRs and greater deployment of a variety of other generating 
technologies. Generation from SMRs is 34% lower in the Low SMR Case than 
in the Global Net-zero Scenario. The share of generation from SMRs by 2050 in 
the Low SMR Case is 9% of total generation in Canada, compared to 12% in the 
Global Net-zero Scenario. 74
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOROther types of electricity generation increase in the Low SMR Case
Lower use of SMRs to meet electricity demand affects the broader electricity mix. 
Compared to the Global Net-zero Scenario, the installed capacity and generation 
of almost all other forms of generation increase in the Low SMR Case, with the 
largest increases in wind and natural gas with CCUS, as shown in Figure R.22. 
In the Global Net-zero Scenario, SMRs played a role in supporting the electricity 
system as a flexible source of electricity production. In the Low SMR Case, more 
of this flexible generation comes from natural gas with CCUS. 
Figure R.22 
Difference in generation between the Global Net-zero Scenario  
and the Low SMR Case in 2050, by select fuel
Given the emerging nature of SMRs, there is uncertainty in the role they will play 
in achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. This “What if” analysis shows that lower 
use of SMRs results in an increased capacity and generation from a diverse mix 
of technologies. However, the overall GHG emissions from Canada's electricity 
sector in the Low SMR Case still remain close to the Global Net-Zero Scenario.
75
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIn the Current Measures Scenario, unabated natural gas-fired generation 
increases steadily. Natural gas-fired generation grows by 38% from 2021 to 
2050, making up 11% of total generation at the end of the projection period. 
We do not project any natural gas generating units with CCUS in the Current 
Measures Scenario. Figure R.23: 
Fossil fuel generation by fuel, Global Net-zero Scenario
Fossil fuels
All provinces and territories have some fossil fuels in their electricity generation 
mix, and in 2021, 18% of all electricity generated in Canada came from facilities 
powered by fossil fuels, including coal, natural gas, and RPPs. The majority of 
generation in Nova Scotia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nunavut, and the Northwest 
Territories was fossil fuel based. 
Unabated fossil fuels remain only for emergencies in the net-zero scenarios 
In both net-zero scenarios, we project that generation from coal is completely 
phased out by 2030. This phase-out, along with steady growth in electricity use, 
means natural gas-fired electricity generation increases early in our projections. 
We also project unabated fossil fuel generation, meaning no CCUS is used to 
capture emissions, is nearly zero after 2030. Our assumptions about policies and 
costs of other technologies mean low- and non-emitting power sources are the 
most cost-effective option for generating electricity. Some unabated generation 
facilities remain online throughout the projection period, providing an option for 
emergency generation if required. The share of unabated fossil fuel generation 
falls from 18% in 2021 to 2% by 2035, and further decline to less than 1% of 
generation in 2050. An exception is the Territories and other remote and northern 
regions, where many communities rely solely on diesel-fired generation. 
Natural gas with CCUS is a flexible power source in the net-zero scenarios
While unabated fossil fuel generation is largely phased-out in the net-zero 
scenarios, natural gas-fired generation combined with CCUS becomes an 
important part of the generation mix in some regions. Natural gas with CCUS 
is first deployed in 2030 and grows steadily throughout the projection period, 
reaching 69 TWh by 2050. While more expensive compared to wind and solar 
per unit of electricity generated, natural gas with CCUS is a flexible source 
of power, meaning it plays an important role in balancing electricity systems, 
particularly those that do not have many other flexible options. Most additions of 
natural gas with CCUS are in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario. Figure R.23 
shows fossil fuel generation by fuel in the Global Net-zero Scenario.76
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORBiomass 
In 2021, just over 2% of Canada’s electricity is generated from biomass, much of 
which is in BC. Biomass and biofuel combustion releases CO2 that was originally 
captured and stored in plant matter. Plants release this stored CO2 when they 
die naturally. As a result, we consider biomass and bioenergy a low-carbon 
source of energy when well managed. In both net-zero scenarios, bioenergy with 
carbon capture and storage (BECCS), becomes a key technology that supports 
decarbonization of the electricity sector and Canada as a whole. Generating 
electricity using BECSS can result in negative GHG emissions by permanently 
storing carbon that would otherwise be temporarily stored in plants. As a result, 
BECCS generation serves a dual purpose in the energy system, providing 
electricity to the grid and offering a source of negative emissions. We assume 
those negative emissions can then be sold to other power producers or industries 
outside of the power sector aiming to offset their GHG emissions. 
Negative emissions from BECCS plays an important role in both  
net-zero scenarios
In the Global Net-zero Scenario, BECCS generation begins in 2035 and grows 
to reach 51 TWh in 2050, or 4% of total generation. The negative emissions 
resulting from BECCS are 9 MT in 2035, and 41 MT by 2050 in both net-zero 
scenarios. We discuss total GHG emissions from the electricity sector later in this 
section. 
In both net-zero scenarios, bioenergy plays an increasingly important role, in 
electricity as well as in the entire energy system. However, the annual availability 
of sustainable biomass feedstocks is limited by biological constraints and 
competition with other economic sectors like forestry and agriculture. An analysis 
of available biomass resources and our projections of its usage within Canada’s 
energy system shows that the bioenergy used for electricity generation is well 
within the total resource supply. Hydrogen
Hydrogen can be used to generate non-emitting electricity. The hydrogen is 
combusted to turn a turbine, much like a natural gas-fired facility. Currently there 
is no hydrogen-powered electricity generation in Canada.
In the Global Net-zero Scenario, we do not project any hydrogen use in the 
power sector as other generating technologies meet the power system’s needs 
at a lower cost. However, in the Canada Net-zero Scenario, we project a small 
amount of hydrogen-fueled electricity generation in Alberta late in the projection 
period. The higher cost of carbon pollution in that scenario makes hydrogen an 
attractive power generation option in Alberta during peak demand periods. In 
addition, electricity demand is higher in Alberta in the Canada Net-zero Scenario 
compared to the Global Net-zero Scenario due to higher oil and natural gas 
production, increasing electricity demand. Hydrogen generation in Alberta 
reaches 1.4 TWh, or just less than 1% of total Albertan generation in 2050.
77
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORStorage
Storage of electricity, either directly in batteries or other forms like compressed 
air or pumped hydro storage, can help balance electricity supply and demand. 
It allows electricity to be stored during times of high production or low use, and 
then be used when production is low, or use is high. Storage provides a source 
of complimentary electricity to renewable power sources like wind and solar. 
Currently, a number of provinces have grid-connected battery storage systems 
including about 90 MW in Alberta and 50 MW in Ontario. 
In both net-zero scenarios, we project growth in battery storage, while other 
forms of storage are not built. By 2030, we project 1.5 GW of battery storage 
in the Global Net-zero Scenario, reaching 9 GW by 2050. There is no battery 
storage built in the Current Measures Scenario.
In EF2023, our electricity modeling focuses primarily on electricity supply and 
demand. As a result, the incentive to build battery storage facilities is based on 
storing inexpensive power and then discharging it later at a higher price. Batteries 
can also provide other functions that support the electricity system, like short-
term reliability services. The potential for additional revenue from these services 
could increase the attractiveness of battery storage beyond what we model in 
EF2023. In addition, hydrogen production using electricity is an important source 
of flexible demand in our net-zero scenarios. This source of flexibility provides 
similar grid-balancing functionality as other storage options. Lower hydrogen 
production using electricity would mean there is more need for grid-balancing 
options and could result in greater need for battery and other storage options.
78
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORTrade and transmission
Canada is a net exporter of electricity to the U.S., and electricity is also traded 
between provinces, mainly in eastern Canada. In 2021, Canada exported 60 TWh 
of electricity and imported 13 TWh. The total aggregated interprovincial electricity 
flows in 2021 was 47 TWh. 
In both net-zero scenarios, net exports of electricity to the U.S. fall 
modestly from current levels
This decline is in response to growing Canadian electricity demand. Meanwhile, 
we project the aggregate interprovincial trade increases by about 16% in 2050 
compared to 2021 levels, facilitated by some additional transmission capacity 
between provinces. By connecting the electricity grids of different regions, grid 
operators can take advantage of regional differences in electricity mixes, available 
variable renewable energy, and periods of peak electricity demand. Without 
additional transmission capacity, some individual provinces could need to install 
more generation or storage capacity than we project in both net-zero scenarios. 
In the Current Measures Scenario, interprovincial electricity trade grows more 
slowly. Figure R.24 shows our projections of net exports out of Canada and 
aggregate interprovincial trade volumes in the Global Net-zero Scenario. 
International and interprovincial trade remains relatively small when compared to 
total generation.
Electricity market developments in the U.S. may evolve differently than our 
projections. More, or less, exports could increase or decrease the incentive to 
build additional generation capacity in Canada. Likewise, the extent to which 
additional interprovincial electricity capacity is built would influence the extent 
provinces can benefit from trade with neighboring provinces and alter how much 
generation must be built in those provinces to meet growing electricity demand.Figure R.24: 
Net exports of electricity and interprovincial trade,  
Global Net-zero Scenario
79
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOR
Electricity production in the Territories and other remote  
and northern regions
Electricity systems in the Territories and remote and northern regions of some 
provinces are unique. These regions are not connected to the North American 
electricity grid, and in many communities, electricity is generated from small 
diesel-fired stations. 
Diesel remains the main fuel source for the Territories in both net-zero 
scenarios
Electricity generation in Yukon and Northwest Territories is a mix of hydro, natural 
gas, and diesel-fired generation, and in Nunavut, diesel generation is the sole 
source of electricity. Combined, the Territories make up less than 1% of Canada’s 
total electricity generation. In both net-zero scenarios, we project that the current 
forms of electricity in each territory remain the main sources over the projection 
period. Currently, diesel is often relied upon in remote communities because it is 
transportable, energy-dense, and readily available. However, the remoteness of 
communities can create supply security issues and high transportation costs for 
fuel. Diesel is also often used for space heating in addition to electricity generation 
in many of those regions.
Some diesel consumption is offset with wind and solar generation built over 
the projection period. Combined, the Territories add 86 MW of wind over the 
projection period, and 118 MW of solar.16 Together these represent 18% of 
generation in the territories by 2050.
16 The CER’s Market Snapshot: Clean Energy Projects in Remote Indigenous and Northern Communities provides details on upcoming clean energy projects in these regions. 80
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOREnergy use associated with electricity generation
Energy used to generate electricity made up a quarter of total primary energy use 
in Canada in 2021. We project energy use by the electricity sector to increase 
nearly 90% by 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario, 100% in the Canada Net-
zero Scenario, and 30% Current Measures Scenario. Figure R.25 shows our 
projection of energy use to generate electricity in the Global Net-zero Scenario.GHG emissions associated with electricity generation 
We project that GHG emissions from the electricity sector, which made up 8% 
of Canada’s emissions in 2021, reaches net-zero by 2035 in both net-zero 
scenarios. After 2035, the electricity sector becomes a net-negative emitter, 
resulting in net-negative emissions of 36 MT by 2050 in the Global Net-zero 
Scenario, and 35 MT in the Canada Net-zero Scenario. Some types of generation 
result in positive emissions throughout the projection period, including the fraction 
of emissions CCUS does not capture, diesel generation in remote and northern 
communities, and limited amounts of unabated natural gas-fired generation. 
Figure R.26 shows GHG emissions of the electricity sector by fuel in the Global 
Net-zero Scenario.Figure R.25: 
Energy use to generate electricity by fuel,  
Global Net-zero Scenario
Figure R.26: 
GHG emissions from electricity generation, by fuel,  
Global Net-zero Scenario
81
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOR
KEY UNCERTAINTIES
Electricity
• Export markets: Electricity market developments in the U.S. will 
impact the development of Canada’s electricity system. Higher 
or lower integration with the U.S. power system than we project 
could impact the amount and type of new electricity generation 
built in Canada.
• Electricity transmission: While our projections suggest building 
electricity transmission between provinces results in lower total 
system costs in both net-zero scenarios, building large-scale 
electricity transmission will be influenced by a diverse range of 
factors. Less transmission would change the electricity investment 
outcomes in our scenarios.
• Societal preferences: Electricity generation can have positive 
and negative impacts on the communities around them, including 
particulate emissions, safety concerns, visual impacts, and 
competition with other land uses. These factors will influence 
future electricity outcomes, but are beyond the scope of EF2023.
82
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOROil and natural gas production
Crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) are produced in Canada 
for domestic use as well as for export. Most of Canada’s crude oil is produced 
in Alberta, along with significant volumes from Saskatchewan and offshore 
Newfoundland and Labrador. Nearly all of Canada’s natural gas production is 
from Alberta and BC. 
In this analysis, we project crude oil, natural gas, and NGL production by 
simulating investment and operational decisions of producers based on our 
assumptions about international and domestic crude oil and natural gas prices, 
applicable policies, resource characteristics, and the costs of production, 
including the costs of various technologies to reduce emissions. The prices of 
crude oil and natural gas that we assume account for the global supply and 
demand balance in each scenario. We assume that if Canadian producers can 
earn a profit, they choose to produce oil and gas.Crude oil 
Canadian crude oil production has been growing steadily for many years, 
increasing 87% from 2005 to 2019. Production declined by 5% in 2020, largely 
due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, production started increasing again and 
averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (MMb/d) (781 thousand cubic metres per day 
(10³m³/d)). Production grew again in 2022 and reached its highest level ever at 
5.0 MMb/d (800 103m3/d). 
Crude oil production declines in the long term in both net-zero scenarios
Total crude oil production continues to increase after 2022 in all three scenarios 
in the near term, because of relatively high prices over that period. However, each 
scenario evolves very differently in the medium and long term. Figure R.27 shows 
total crude oil production in all three scenarios.
Figure R.27: 
Crude oil production (including condensate and pentanes plus),  
all scenarios
83
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIn the Global Net-zero Scenario, we project that crude oil production peaks in 
2026, and then declines steadily thereafter, reaching 1.22 MMb/d (194 103m3/d) 
in 2050, a 76% decrease from 2022 levels. In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, 
production continues to grow until near the end of the decade before beginning 
to decline, falling to 3.92 MMb/d (623 103m3/d) by 2050. In the Current 
Measures Scenario, we project production grows to a peak of 6.20 MMb/d 
(986 103m3/d) by 2035, and remains just below that level for the remainder of 
the projection period. 
The differences between these scenarios are mostly explained by the different 
assumptions we make about the price of crude oil. We describe these 
assumptions in detail in the previous chapter, Scenarios and Assumptions. In 
the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios, we align our assumptions with 
crude oil prices from the IEA’s WEO2022 scenarios. In the Global Net-zero 
Scenario, we take the global crude oil price from the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions 
by 2050 Scenario and in the Canada Net-zero Scenario, we use prices from 
the IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario. The prices we assume in the Current 
Measures Scenario are based on a review of price projections by various other 
organizations. Table R.2 shows our crude oil price assumptions.
Table R.2: 
Brent crude oil price assumptions, all scenarios 
2030 2050
Scenario 2022US$ per barrel 2022US$ per barrel
Global Net-zero 35 24
Canada Net-zero 64 60
Current Measures 75 75
Our assumptions about climate policies also affect our projections of crude oil 
production. All scenarios include all policies currently in place. In the net-zero scenarios, we include any announced but not-yet-implemented climate policies 
to the extent feasible. These policies include the federal methane regulations, 
which aim to reduce methane emissions by 75% by 2030, and the oil and gas 
emissions cap. In both instances, the final policy design was not available before 
our modeling was complete. As a result, we relied on simplifying assumptions to 
include these policies in our analysis. Further details on those assumptions are 
available in Appendix 1: Domestic Climate Policy Assumptions.
Canadian crude oil production includes three main types of production: oil sands, 
conventional, and offshore.KEY TRENDS
Crude oil production
• In the Global Net-zero Scenario, oil production falls by 76% from 
2022 to 2050 to 1.22 MMb/d (194 103m3/d) because global oil 
demand falls to very low levels, resulting low crude oil prices that 
challenge the economic viability of many Canadian producers. 
• In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, production falls 22% from 2022 
to 2050 to 3.92 MMb/d (623 103m3/d), because oil prices are high 
enough to sustain more production.
• CCUS capacity in the oil sands peaks at 27 MT in 2033 in the Global 
Net-zero Scenario and 49 MT in 2035 in the Canada Net-zero 
Scenario.
• Oil sands emissions fall 94% from 2005 levels by 2050 in Global 
Net-zero Scenario and 76% from 2005 levels by 2050 in Canada 
Net-zero Scenario.84
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOROil sands production
Oil sands production comes from bitumen deposits located in Alberta, where 
bitumen is mined in surface pits or produced using wells and steam (called in-situ 
production). The oil sands made up nearly two-thirds of Canadian production 
in 2022. 
Oil sands production grows at a similar pace in the near term in all three 
scenarios
Production is between 4 to 7% higher by 2030 compared to 2022 levels 
depending on the scenario. Most of this growth is from a small number of existing 
projects who expand their facilities. We project that oil sands production in each 
of the three scenarios differs considerably after 2030. These differences are 
mainly driven by our assumptions about global crude oil prices, which are lowest 
in the Global Net-zero Scenario, higher in the Canada Net-zero Scenario, and 
highest in the Current Measures Scenario. In addition, climate policies in each 
scenario influence investment decisions, including how producers use technology 
to reduce emissions. Figure R.28 shows oil sands production by facility type in 
all scenarios.Oil sands production falls after 2030 in the Global Net-zero Scenario
After 2030, oil sands production in the Global Net-zero Scenario begins to 
steadily decline. This decline is largely because oil prices fall to 2022US$35 
per barrel in 2030 and continue to decrease thereafter. Oil prices fall because 
of much lower global demand for oil as more stringent climate policies are 
implemented globally, as demonstrated in the IEA’s WEO2022 Net Zero 
Emissions by 2050 Scenario. In other words, oil producers around the globe are 
facing a rapidly shrinking market. Though falling prices are the dominant factor, 
our projections also factor in increasingly strong climate policies in Canada, which 
reduce emissions but also increase the costs of production.
Only the most efficient projects produce in 2050 in the Global Net-zero 
Scenario
Over the projection period, falling prices make it increasingly difficult for oil sands 
producers to recover their operating costs and keep projects running. Operating 
costs include fuel, maintenance, royalties paid to provincial governments, carbon 
pollution costs (including any remaining carbon pollution after CCUS is installed, 
as we assume CCUS captures 90% of emissions from large point sources), 
and, when necessary, the cost of diluent so bitumen can be diluted and shipped 
on pipelines. In our analysis, shortly after the total operating costs of a facility 
exceeds its revenue, it shuts down for the remainder of the projection period. Oil 
sands facilities that have the highest operating costs begin shutting down early 
in the 2030s. As oil prices continue to drop, more and more facilities shut down 
production, and only the lowest-cost projects are still producing in 2050. Oil 
sands production falls to 1.59 MMb/d (252 103m3/d) in 2040 and 0.58 MMb/d 
(91 103m3/d) in 2050, or 83% lower than in 2022. In-situ production falls faster 
than mining production because in-situ projects are more emissions-intensive, 
meaning they have higher carbon costs than oil sands mines.Figure R.28: 
Oil sands production by type, all scenarios
85
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOR
Production declines less and more slowly in the Canada Net-zero scenario
In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, oil sands production also declines after 2030, 
but at a slower rate compared to the Global Net-zero Scenario. While global 
demand for oil falls in the IEA’s WEO2022 Announced Pledges Scenario, demand 
is still much higher than in their Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, meaning 
oil prices are much higher. In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, oil sands production 
decreases in line with the gradual natural declines in production exhibited by 
oil sands projects, which become more mature over the projection period. 
Production in the Canada Net-zero Scenario falls from a peak of nearly 3.64 
MMb/d (579 103m3/d) in 2030 to 2.30 MMb/d (366 103m3/d) by 2050, or 30% 
lower than 2022. Like in the Global Net-zero Scenario, in-situ production falls 
faster than mining production.
Oil sands production grows steadily in the Current Measures Scenario
In the Current Measures Scenario, we project that higher global prices and less 
stringent future climate policies result in continued growth in oil sands production 
over the projection period. Expansions of existing projects leads to much of the 
growth, with some greenfield projects also coming online. Oil sands production 
rises from 3.29 MMb/d (523 103m3/d) in 2022 to 3.73 MMb/d (593 103m3/d) in 
2030 and largely holds steady, reaching 3.59 MMb/d (571 103m3/d) by 2050.Oil sands producers significantly reduce emissions in both net-zero 
scenarios
This is due to increasingly strong climate policies, which cause oil sands 
producers to deploy emission-reduction technology. The primary source of GHG 
emissions from the oil sands is from burning natural gas, which is used to boil 
water to create steam for in-situ production and to create hydrogen to upgrade 
bitumen into synthetic crude oil. 
Our modeling projects that CCUS is the most economic choice for many oil 
sands producers to reduce emissions. We project that oil sands producers 
retrofit existing projects with CCUS early in the projection period in both net-zero 
scenarios and install it on any new projects. In the Current Measures Scenario, 
only a small amount of CCUS is installed. Other decarbonization technologies 
have potential, like using solvents to help with bitumen recovery or SMRs to 
generate heat without using natural gas. Given our assumptions about the costs 
and characteristics of different technologies, CCUS is the primary choice for oil 
sands producers in both net-zero scenarios. However, our projections could 
show different decarbonization pathways if these technologies proved less costly 
or more effective than we assume.
In the Global Net-zero Scenario, we project that 12.5 MT of CO2 is captured 
annually by 2030, increasing to a peak of 22.5 MT by 2036, as shown in Figure 
R.29. In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, producers rely even more on CCUS, 
mostly because oil sands production remains higher, reaching 15.0 MT of 
emissions captured in 2030 and 45.0 MT in 2037. Figure R.29: 
GHGs captured and permanently stored from the oil sands using CCUS, 
Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios86
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOROverall, GHG emissions in the oil sands peak at 87 MT per year in 2023 in the 
Global Net-zero Scenario before falling to 61 MT per year in 2030 and 4 MT per 
year in 2050, a 94% drop from 2005 levels. GHG emissions peak at 88 MT per 
year in 2023 in the Canada Net-zero Scenario before falling to 55 MT per year 
in 2030 and to 8 MT per year in 2050. Some producers in the Global Net-zero 
Scenario choose not to add CCUS because oil prices are too low for them to 
install it and recover invested capital, and instead produce what bitumen they can 
before they shut down later in the projection period. What if carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology 
is more expensive? 
CCUS is a suite of technologies that capture CO2, typically from the 
exhaust of industrial or power facilities. The captured CO2 can then 
be permanently stored in geological formations deep underground or 
permanently mineralized in cement. CO2 can also be potentially used to 
make products like synthetic fuels, rather than storing it. In this “What if” 
analysis, we focus on the application of CCUS in the oil sands. 
Many modeling exercises have identified CCUS as a key technology 
for reducing emissions from sectors where reducing emissions through 
other methods like electrification or alternative fuels may be too difficult 
or costly. In its Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, the IEA projects 
CCUS will capture 6.2 gigatonnes of CO2 by 2050, or nearly 17% of 
global CO2 emissions in 2021. In that scenario, CCUS is mostly used in 
industry, power generation, and for hydrogen production.
Canada is currently adding more CCUS projects
In Canada, crude oil producers have been injecting captured CO2 into oil 
wells to enhance recovery rates since the early 1980s. Saskatchewan’s 
coal-fired Boundary Dam Generating Station added CCUS to one of 
its units in 2014 and has captured more than 5 MT of GHG emissions 
since. In Alberta, two carbon capture projects, Quest and Alberta 
Carbon Trunk Line, were commissioned in 2015 and 2020, respectively, 
increasing Alberta’s annual carbon storage capacity to 3 MT by the 
end of 2022. Many new projects proposed in Alberta are described 
in detail in the CER Market Snapshot: New projects in Alberta could 
add significant carbon storage capacity by 2030. To encourage CCUS 
deployment, the federal government announced investment tax credits 
for CCUS projects that permanently store captured CO2. We include 
these tax credits in our analysis.
Photo credit: Suncor87
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORCCUS deployment will depend on costs
In EF2023, we make assumptions about the costs of various technologies, 
including CCUS, in our oil sands analysis. The model then simulates the 
operational and investment decisions of oil sands producers based on those 
assumptions as well as other factors. However, the actual deployment of CCUS 
will strongly depend on its eventual costs. The costs we assume could be 
optimistic. In this “What if” analysis, we consider what oil sands production and 
CCUS deployment in the sector might look like if costs of CCUS are higher and 
deployment of CCUS is lower. Table R.3 shows the lifecycle costs we assume 
for the construction and operation of a CCUS facility, including the cost of 
transporting CO2 in a pipeline, in both net-zero scenarios and for this “What if” 
analysis.
Table R.3: 
Lifecycle cost of construction and operation of CCUS facilities in the oil 
sands, including transportation, Net-zero scenarios and Low CCUS cases
2030 2050
2022$  
per tonne2022$  
per tonne2022$  
per tonne2022$  
per tonne
In-situ Upgrading In-situ Upgrading
Global Net-zero and 
Canada Net zero 
Scenario117 93 95 76
Global Net-zero and 
Canada Net-zero 
Low CCUS cases233 186 191 152
In this “What if” analysis, the only assumption we change is the cost of CCUS, to 
see how sensitive oil sands production and emissions are to changes in CCUS 
cost. We keep our assumptions about policies and crude oil prices the same as 
in the main net-zero scenarios.In the Global Net-zero Scenario, higher CCUS costs significantly reduce  
the use of CCUS
As shown in Figure R.30, producers build much less CCUS in the Global Net-zero 
Low CCUS Case than in the original scenario. However, as shown in Figure R.31, 
oil sands production is about the same in 2030. From 2030 to 2050, on the 
other hand, production falls faster than in the original Global Net-zero Scenario. 
More producers choose not to build CCUS and face higher operating costs as 
they pay for increasing costs for carbon pollution. Once those operating costs 
exceed revenues, projects begin to shut down, and production is 0.47 MMb/d 
(74 103m3/d) lower in 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario Low CCUS Case. 
Emissions are 27% higher than in the original scenario in 2030, because less 
CCUS is installed by then, though are 7% lower in 2050, as production is lower.
Figure R.30: 
GHG emissions from the oil sands captured using CCUS,  
Global Net-zero and Canada Net-zero Scenarios and Low CCUS cases
88
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORProducers delay building CCUS in the Canada Net-zero Scenario  
Low CCUS Case
In the Canada Net-zero Scenario Low CCUS Case, producers delay adding 
CCUS because of higher costs, but still build similar amounts by 2050 as in 
the original scenario as CCUS costs decrease over time. Production from 
the oil sands is slightly lower in the original scenario, because while oil prices 
are high enough to keep existing projects running, there is somewhat lower 
investment in expanding production. Emissions are 33% higher in 2030 than 
in the original scenario, while they are roughly the same by 2050.
Figure R.31: 
Oil sands production by type, Global and Canada  
Net-zero scenario, and total oil sands production, Low CCUS casesConventional onshore oil production
Alberta and Saskatchewan produce most onshore, conventional crude oil in 
Canada, with smaller amounts of production from Manitoba, BC, Northwest 
Territories, and Ontario. Conventional production was 1.01 MMb/d (160 103m3/d) 
in 2022. Conventional crude oil can be classified as light or heavy, depending 
on the density of the oil. Western Canadian conventional crude oil production 
is roughly half light and half heavy. Figure R.32 shows conventional crude oil 
production in all three scenarios, and production by type in the Global  
Net-zero Scenario. 
Figure R.32: 
Conventional onshore oil production by province and type,  
Global Net-zero Scenario
In all three scenarios, conventional crude oil production increases toward 2025 
as relatively high prices sustain drilling activity and production. Much of this 
growth is from tight oil in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and heavy oil production 
in Saskatchewan, particularly from thermal oil projects.
89
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORConventional oil production declines after 2026 in the  
Global Net-zero Scenario
We project production to peak relatively soon in the Global Net-zero Scenario, 
reaching 1.18 MMb/d (188 103m3/d) by 2026. After 2026, production declines 
steadily through the remainder of the projection period. Steadily declining crude 
oil prices reduces revenues for oil producers and results in less drilling for new 
production in following years, meaning not enough new production comes online 
to replace production declines in existing wells. By 2050, conventional crude oil 
production is 0.47 MMb/d (74 103m3/d), 54% lower than in 2022. Most of the 
remaining production in 2050 is light crude oil, mainly because of declines in 
heavy oil production. 
Production remains steady in the Canada Net-zero Scenario,  
and grows in the Current Measures Scenario 
Conventional production continues to increase in the medium term in the Canada 
Net-zero Scenario, largely due to higher crude oil prices. Production increases 
gradually, reaching 1.22 MMb/d (195 103m3/d) 2030 and staying near those 
levels until 2050. Conventional crude oil production grows the most in Current 
Measures Scenario, rising to 1.60 MMb/d (255 103m3/d) in 2050.Conventional oil is more resilient compared with the oil sands  
in the Canada Net-zero Scenario
Overall, in the Canada Net Zero Scenario, conventional production remains 
relatively resilient when compared to oil sands production, which falls. This is 
largely because the two sectors have very different cost structures and produce 
oil very differently. Projects in the oil sands have very high up-front costs and 
take years to build. In addition, oil sands production rates tend to decline slowly 
over the multi-decade life of a project, though this decline can be slowed if 
additional capital is invested. These factors mean that oil sands projects are built 
on the basis of recovering their upfront investments over a long period of time, 
and project proponents must consider the long-term uncertainty about global 
oil demand and crude oil prices in their investment decisions. Conventional 
producers, on the other hand, have a shorter time horizon to consider in their 
investment decisions. This is because tight oil wells, which make up most 
conventional wells being drilled today and over the projection period, produce 
most of their oil in the first few years after being drilled. In the Canada Net Zero 
Scenario, conventional producers respond to relatively high prices by drilling 
enough new wells to maintain relatively flat production through most of the 
projection period.
In both net-zero scenarios, conventional oil producers reduce emissions in 
response to the climate policies that we assume, like regulations to reduce 
methane emissions and the oil and gas emissions cap.
Compared to the oil sands, conventional oil production burns relatively little fuel, 
although it has higher methane emissions. The exception is Saskatchewan’s 
thermal-heavy oil projects, which use natural gas much like Alberta’s in-situ oil 
sands projects. In both net-zero scenarios, producers make technological and 
process changes, like restricting venting levels from devices like compressors and 
implementing leak detection and repair programs. We also project that, where 
feasible, the sector uses more electricity for production and processing. 
90
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORAvailability of crude oil export pipeline and rail capacity
A key issue for Canada’s energy system over the last ten years has been export 
capacity of western Canadian oil export pipelines and crude-by-rail. When total 
export capacity is full, price differences between Canadian oil markets and our 
export markets expand, particularly during unexpected outages, which causes 
western Canadian oil producers to earn less revenue than they otherwise would. 
Figure R.33 is a simplified, illustrative comparison of our projected western 
Canadian crude oil supply available to export and an illustrative level of total 
export capacity from pipelines, planned pipeline expansions, and structural rail.17 
Available capacity on existing pipeline systems could be higher or lower than 
reflected in Figure R.33, because pipeline systems evolve over time. The level of 
structural crude-by-rail could also be higher or lower than reflected in this figure. 
Comparing oil available for export and the amount of export capacity helps us 
to understand whether pipeline constraints might affect crude oil production. 
We do not, however, adjust projected crude oil production or what we assume 
for western Canadian oil prices based on potential constraints. That said, our 
near-term oil sands projections are largely based on publicly available producer 
investment plans, which could include expectations about future export capacity.
Crude oil available for export stays below export capacity in both net-zero 
scenarios
In the Global Net-zero Scenario, western Canadian crude oil available for export 
rises in the near term before falling after 2030, staying below the total export 
capacity throughout the projection period. 
In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, western Canadian crude oil available for 
export rises more in the near term and remains higher than in the Global Net-
zero Scenario after 2030, though still remains below export capacity. Declining 
demand for RPPs demand for RPPs in western Canada reduces demand for 
oil at local refineries, which leaves more production available for export. In the 
Current Measures Scenario, supply comes close to, but does not exceed, 
export capacity for much of the projection period, peaking in 2035, and declining 
gradually thereafter. 
17 Structural rail refers to crude oil that is exported by rail regardless of a given WCS-WTI differential. Companies may choose to export crude oil by rail in this way due to a number of factors. These include existing contractual 
commitments, ownership of the crude-by-rail infrastructure, and the need to access locations not well connected by pipeline.EF2023 does not explore the complex interactions between pipelines, 
energy supply, and energy demand
For example, some spare pipeline capacity can benefit crude oil producers by 
increasing flexibility as it could help producers more easily switch where they 
ship their oil, and therefore find higher values for their production. Spare capacity 
can also help ship oil that might otherwise back up into western Canada during 
pipeline maintenance or unplanned outages. On the other hand, excess capacity 
and long-term underutilization of pipelines could result in higher pipeline tolls 
for crude oil producers. Analysis of these considerations is beyond the scope 
of EF2023. We caution readers from drawing definitive conclusions from the 
illustrative comparison shown Figure R.33.
It is also important to note that estimates of total available pipeline capacity and 
the level of structural rail is uncertain and the result of many key assumptions. 
Table R.4 describes the assumptions underpinning Figure R.33. 
Figure R.33: 
Illustrative export capacity from pipelines and structural rail, crude oil 
pipeline capacity vs. total supply available for export, all scenarios
91
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORTable R.4: 
Pipeline capacity assumptions for Figure R.33
Name Takeaway capacity  
(current or timing as 
noted) (Mb/d)Capacity assumptions
Enbridge Mainline 3,290 Stated capacity includes the fully completed Line 3 Replacement Project which added 370 Mb/d of capacity to the 
Enbridge Mainline in late 2021.
Keystone 590 Capacity held fixed over the projection period. The cancelled Keystone XL project is not included in Figure R.33.
Trans Mountain 300 Capacity is held fixed over the projection period. 
Trans Mountain 
Expansion590 The Trans Mountain Expansion Project adds capacity starting in the first quarter of 2024 and increases to full capacity a few 
months later. This includes use of drag-reducing agents, which increase the capacity of the existing Trans Mountain line by 
50 Mb/d. 
Express 310 Capacity held fixed over the projection period.
Milk River 97 Capacity held fixed over the projection period.
Aurora/Rangeland 44 Capacity held fixed over the projection period.
Structural Rail 120 Capacity held fixed over the projection period.
Total 5,363  
Offshore oil production
Offshore oil production comes from wells drilled in Canada’s offshore areas. 
Currently only Newfoundland and Labrador produces offshore oil. Offshore 
production was 0.23 MMb/d (37 103m3/d) in 2022. While some production 
currently comes from Hibernia and other nearby fields, most offshore production 
now comes from the Hebron field, which came online in late 2017.
In all three scenarios, the Bay du Nord offshore project comes online in the late 
2020s, increasing Newfoundland and Labrador’s oil production. As shown in 
Figure R.34, the amount of production we project from the Bay du Nord facility 
varies by scenario, with the least amount of new production coming online in the 
Global Net-zero Scenario and the most coming online in the Current Measures 
Scenario. This is because oil prices in 2030 and later are lowest in the Global Net-
zero Scenario and highest in the Current Measures Scenario. Figure R.34: 
Offshore oil production, all scenarios
92
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORGHG emissions from offshore oil production peak around 2030 in all three 
scenarios, and then decrease toward 2050. In particular, GHG emissions decline 
faster than production in all three scenarios. This decrease is because older 
projects in Newfoundland and Labrador’s offshore tend to have higher emission 
intensities and shut down before newer projects, which have lower emission 
intensities. This means the average emission intensity for a barrel of offshore oil 
falls over time, accelerating the decline in total emissions. Emissions fall to less 
than 5% of 2019 levels by 2050 in both net-zero scenarios.
KEY UNCERTAINTIES
Crude oil
• The pace of global climate action: Canada exports most of its 
oil production, meaning our producers depend on markets outside 
of Canada to buy most of our oil supply. Demand for Canadian 
oil depends very strongly on how aggressively the world pursues 
emission reductions.
• Technology used to decarbonize the oil sands: In EF2023, the 
oil sands mainly use CCUS to decarbonize. However, if CCUS costs, 
and the costs of other emission-reduction technology, like solvents 
and SMRs, do not significantly fall, or these technologies turn out to 
be inadequate, the oil sands may find decarbonization even more 
challenging. In a rush to decarbonize the sector, constraints on labour 
and supplies might prevent costs from falling as much as we assume.
• Western Canadian export capacity: Export capacity from western 
Canada consists of several pipelines, as well as rail and marine 
vessels. Interruptions or reductions to pipeline capacity, temporary or 
permanent, can affect western Canadian prices and production. 
93
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORNatural gas 
Alberta and BC produce most of the natural gas in Canada, with smaller 
amounts of production from Saskatchewan, Ontario, Northwest Territories, and 
New Brunswick. Natural gas production grew from 13.9 billion cubic feet per 
day (Bcf/d) (394 million cubic metres per day (106m3/d)) in 2012 to 16.1 Bcf/d 
(456 106m3/d) in 2021, and to 17.3 Bcf/d (490 106m3/d) in 2022, because 
natural gas and natural gas liquid (NGL) prices rose significantly in 2021 after 
Russia invaded Ukraine.
Most natural gas in Canada comes from tight gas, which is from reservoirs that 
need to be hydraulically fractured to flow at economic rates. Most tight gas in 
Canada comes from the Montney Formation of BC and Alberta. In 2022, the 
Montney Formation produced 8.1 Bcf/d (228 106m3/d), just less than half of 
Canada’s gas production and up from 0.8 Bcf/d (23 106m3/d) in 2010.Our projections for natural gas production largely depend on price
Prices determine producer revenues and capital available to potentially invest in 
drilling new wells from year to year. Like crude oil prices, our natural gas price 
assumptions in both net-zero scenarios are from the IEA’s WEO2022 scenarios, 
and the assumptions in the Current Measures Scenario are based on a review 
of price projections by various other organizations. Table R.5 shows our natural 
gas price assumptions. A related factor that influences our projections is the 
difference, or differential, between the Henry Hub gas price and local prices in 
western Canada. Factors such as bottlenecks on Canadian pipeline systems 
have affected this differential in the past. Differentials that vary from what we 
assume could cause production to differ from our projections.
Table R.5: 
Henry Hub natural gas price assumptions, all scenarios 
2030 2050
Scenario 2022US$ per MMBtu 2022US$ per MMBtu
Global Net-zero 2.00 1.80
Canada Net-zero 3.70 2.60
Current Measures 3.75 4.40
Our natural gas projections depend on our assumptions about LNG exports. 
We describe our assumptions about LNG in detail in the Scenarios and 
Assumption chapter. In the Global Net-zero Scenario, we assume LNG exports 
begin in 2025, reaching 2.0 Bcf/d (57 106m³/d) by 2029, and then dropping to 
0.3 Bcf/d (8 106m³/d) by 2046 in response to falling LNG demand globally. In 
the Canada Net-zero Scenario, LNG exports reach 3.8 Bcf/d (108 106m³/d) by 
2030. In the Current Measures Scenario, LNG exports are the highest, reaching 
4.6 Bcf/d (131 106m³/d) by 2034.KEY TRENDS
Natural gas production
• In the Global Net-zero Scenario, gas production falls by over two 
thirds from 2022 to 2050, mostly because natural gas prices fall to 
much lower levels. 
• In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, production falls 24% from 2022 
to 2050, declining less than in the Global Net-zero Scenario due to 
somewhat higher prices for natural gas and higher liquified natural 
gas (LNG) export assumptions.
• The Montney Formation produces more than half of Canada’s total 
gas production in all three scenarios starting in 2025, and more 
than 60% in 2050. Our projections for natural gas production largely 
depend on price94
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIn the Global Net-zero Scenario, Canadian production peaks at 17.4 Bcf/d 
(492 106m³/d) in 2023, because of relatively high gas prices in 2021 and 2022. 
After staying near those levels until 2026, production steadily falls to 5.5 Bcf/d 
(156 106m³/d) in 2050, because of lower investment in drilling new wells. 
Producer revenues decrease, largely because of lower natural gas prices, but 
also higher costs related to reducing emissions and complying with various 
climate policies. 
Natural gas production declines in the net-zero scenarios, and rises in the  
Current Measures Scenario
In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, production rises to 17.7 Bcf/d (500 106m³/d) 
in 2030, because natural gas prices and LNG exports are higher than in the 
Global Net-zero Scenario. Production then falls to 11.0 Bcf/d (310 106m³/d) 
in 2050, largely because of falling gas prices which reduces producer revenue 
and investment in drilling new gas wells. In the Current Measures Scenario, as 
gas prices grow from 2023 to 2050, LNG exports are higher than in the other 
two scenarios, and climate policies are less stringent than in the two net-zero 
scenarios, and production rises to 21.5 Bcf/d (607 106m³/d) in 2050.
Montney Formation production grows and then falls by 2050 in both net-
zero scenarios
In all scenarios, the geographic location of production shifts over the projection 
period. BC has grown its share of total Canadian natural gas production 
over the past several years and this continues over the projection period, as 
shown in Figure R.35. A key driver of this is the growth of production from the 
Montney Formation, located in northeast BC and northwest Alberta. Most of 
the production from Montney is currently from within BC, and we project that 
this continues to be the case over the projection period in all three scenarios. As 
shown in Figure R.36, production from the Montney increased from 0.8 Bcf/d 
(23 106m3/d, or 6% of Canadian production) in 2010 to 8.1 Bcf/d (228 106m3/d, 
or 47% of Canadian production) in 2022. In all three scenarios, the Montney 
Formation’s share of production increases steadily, meaning that Canada’s natural 
gas production is becoming more concentrated in one area. Production from the 
Montney Formation falls to 3.4 Bcf/d (98 106m³/d) in 2050 in the Global Net-
zero Scenario, 6.8 Bcf/d (194 106m³/d) in the Canada Net-zero Scenario, and 
increases to 14.8 Bcf/d (420 106m³/d) in the Current Measures Scenario. Figure R.35: 
Natural gas production by province, Global Net-zero Scenario,  
and total production, Canada Net-zero and Current Measures scenarios
Figure R.36: 
Natural gas production by type, Global Net-zero Scenario, and total 
production, Canada Net-zero and Current Measures scenarios
95
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOREmissions from natural gas production continue to decline in the net-zero 
scenarios
GHG emissions from the production and processing of natural gas peaked in 
2007. In the Global Net-zero Scenario, emissions decline to 8 MT in 2050, a 
decrease of almost 90% from 2021 levels. This is largely because of falling natural 
gas production, but also because of various climate policies, including federal 
regulations aiming to reduce methane emissions by 75% by 2030. Electrification 
of the sector, where feasible, and the use of CCUS at larger natural gas-
processing plants also contribute to declining emissions. The Canada Net-Zero 
Scenario follows a similar trend, with emissions falling to 9 MT in 2050. In the 
Current Measures Scenario, emissions decline to 2030 before rising to 42 MT in 
2050 as production grows, and because policies do not become more stringent 
after 2030. KEY UNCERTAINTIES
Natural gas
• The pace of global climate action: Canada exports much of its 
natural gas production, meaning producers depend on markets 
outside of Canada to buy our gas supply. Demand for Canadian 
gas depends very strongly on how aggressively the world pursues 
emission reductions.
• Technology used to decarbonize the oil sands: We project that 
CCUS is key to decarbonizing the oil sands, which allows natural 
gas to remain the main fuel supply for in-situ oil sands production. 
However, other potential technologies exist to decarbonize the oil 
sands, like solvents and SMRs, which do not consume natural gas. 
We do not project that these technologies are applied in the oil sands 
but if they become more attractive, western Canadian demand for 
natural gas could significantly fall, reducing natural gas prices and 
production. On the other hand, increased demand for solvents like 
propane and butanes could increase demand for NGLs, therefore 
increasing drilling for natural gas as a result.
• Discounts for western Canadian natural gas: Differentials for 
western Canadian natural gas relative to Henry Hub could be affected 
by many things, including pipeline bottlenecks. 
• LNG exports: Small changes to economics can alter which projects 
are built and when, or when projects might shut down. In the Global 
Net-zero Scenario, the rapid decline in LNG exports from 2044 to 
2046 could happen earlier if Canadian LNG exports are more costly 
relative to remaining global LNG supply, or exports could continue 
past 2050 if secured through long-term contracts.
96
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORNatural gas liquids 
NGLs are produced along with natural gas, as well as from oil sands and refinery 
processes. Natural gas production is the main source of NGL production in 
Canada. Demand for certain NGLs adds value to natural gas production and 
is a driver of natural gas drilling. Raw natural gas at a wellhead is comprised 
primarily of methane, but often contains NGLs such as ethane, propane, butanes, 
pentanes, and condensate.
Figure R.37: 
NGL production, by type, Global Net-zero Scenario, and total NGL 
production, Canada Net-zero and Current Measures scenarios
NGL production declines in the net-zero scenarios and grows in the Current 
Measures Scenario
Figure R.37 shows total NGL production by type in the Global Net-zero Scenario 
along with total combined NGL production in the Canada Net-zero and Current 
Measures scenarios. Production grows around 4% from 2022 to 2026 in the 
Global Net-zero Scenario, reaching 1.29 MMb/d (205 103m3/d). Much of this 
production growth is condensate and pentanes plus. Condensate and pentanes 
plus are added to bitumen as a diluent to enable it to flow in pipelines and be 
loaded on to rail cars. Steady demand for condensate encourages natural gas 
drilling to focus on NGL-rich areas. 
As low gas prices reduce gas drilling and gas production, total NGL production 
declines after 2030 in the Global Net-zero scenario. NGL production continues to 
fall, reaching to 0.46 MMb/d (73 103m3/d) in 2050, 63% lower than in 2022.KEY TRENDS
NGLs
• In the Global Net-zero Scenario, production rises to 1.29 MMb/d 
(205 103m3/d) by 2026 before falling to 0.46 MMb/d (73 103m3/d) in 
2050 following natural gas production trends.
• NGL production is higher in the Canada Net-zero Scenario, 
increasing to 1.45 MMb/d (230 103m3/d) by 2030 before falling to 
0.86 MMb/d (136 103m3/d) in 2050.97
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIn the Canada Net-zero Scenario, NGL production grows by 16% from 2022 to 2030, 
and declines gradually through the remainder of the projection period. Like the Global 
Net-zero Scenario, NGL production growth is dominated by condensate, though 
propane and butanes production grow as well. In the Current Measures Scenario, total 
NGL production grows 45% from 2022 to 2050, reaching 1.80 MMb/d (286 10³m³/d). 
In this scenario, NGL production growth is a result of natural gas production growth. 
KEY UNCERTAINTIES
NGLs
• Natural gas production and LNG exports: NGLs are a byproduct of 
natural gas production, and as such, any uncertainty discussed in the 
natural gas section applies for NGL projections. 
• Oil sands production: The rate at which production grows in the 
oil sands, and the amount of diluent blending required, will affect the 
demand for condensate. Likewise, if solvents are widely adopted in the 
oil sands to reduce GHG emissions, demand for propane and butanes 
would increase.
• Petrochemical development: There is potential for ethane recovery 
to expand if there is an increase in the ethane extraction capacity and 
petrochemical facilities. This increase could be spurred by government 
programs, such as royalty credit incentives for petrochemical facilities in 
Alberta’s Petrochemicals Diversification Program. 
• Global exports: Several large-scale facilities have been approved by 
provincial and federal regulators to export some NGLs from the BC 
coast. The amount and composition of the NGLs exported at proposed 
and existing terminals could impact domestic NGL prices and the 
attractiveness of drilling for NGL-rich natural gas.
98
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOREnergy use in the oil and gas sector
Canadian crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs are large sources of energy for 
domestic and international markets. However, the process of producing, 
processing, transporting, and refining these products requires a significant 
amount of energy. In 2021, the sector used around 3,000 petajoules (PJ) of 
energy, 27% of total Canadian end-use energy consumption.18 Most of this 
energy was natural gas, not only in the oil sands, but to power oil and gas 
wells, natural gas processing, petroleum refining, and gas pipelines. Propane 
or electricity is often used to fuel operations at oil and gas wells, and electricity 
typically powers oil pipelines. 
Over the projection period, the amount of energy used in each scenario is driven 
by the amount of future production, how fast energy efficiency improves, and 
additional energy used to run CCUS equipment, if any. Also, energy use to refine 
petroleum products and transport natural gas to end-users is driven largely by the 
domestic demand for those commodities. 
In all three scenarios, energy use in the oil and gas sector grows in  
the near term 
Energy use in the sector peaks in 2023 in the Global Net-zero Scenario and 
then falls by 75% by 2050 from 2021 levels, largely in line with falling production 
levels. In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, demand falls 47% from 2021 to 2050, 
as higher crude oil production results in higher demand for energy in the sector 
compared to the Global Net-zero Scenario. In both net-zero scenarios, falling 
Canadian demand for RPPs and natural gas reduce energy use for refining and 
transporting energy to end-users. Increased deployment of CCUS technology 
impacts energy use in both net-zero scenarios. Capturing, compressing, and 
transporting CO2 from the exhaust stream of facilities takes energy. By 2050, 
energy used to power CCUS makes up 5% of oil and gas sector demands in 
the Global Net-zero Scenario, and 7% in the Canada Net-zero Scenario. In the 
Current Measures Scenario, efficiency improvements offset increased production 
levels and energy required for CCUS, and energy use in 2050 is 6% lower than in 
2021. Figure R.38 shows total energy use in the oil and gas sector.
18 This is end-use demand, so excludes on-site electricity generation, which is captured in primary demand.Figure R.38: 
Energy use in the oil and gas sector by fuel, 2021 and all scenarios in 2050
99
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORFigure R.39: 
GHG emissions in the oil and gas sector, all scenarios
GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector
We describe the trends driving GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector in the 
previous sections of this chapter. In total, we project that GHG emissions from 
the oil and gas sector in the Global Net-zero Scenario fall from 189 MT in 2021 to 
17 MT in 2050, a 90% decrease. In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, emissions fall 
to 32 MT in 2050, or 83% lower than 2021 levels. This includes GHG emissions 
from the production and transmission of oil and natural gas, and liquefaction of 
natural gas, refining of crude oil, and distribution of natural gas to end-users. 
In both net-zero scenarios, CCUS and methane mitigation play an important role 
reducing emissions in the oil and gas sector. In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, 
CCUS is particularly important because production of oil and natural gas is 
higher due to higher global demand and oil and gas prices. We also project 
some electrification of conventional oil and natural gas production currently 
met by fossil fuels. Some GHGs are still emitted in both net-zero scenarios by 
2050 but Canada achieves net-zero because of negative emissions occurring in 
other sectors.
In the Current Measures Scenario, emissions from the oil and gas sector decline 
moderately over the projection to 149 MT in 2050, 21% lower than in 2021. This 
scenario has the highest oil and natural gas production. At the same time, our 
assumption of limited future climate action in Canada in that scenario means the 
industry applies less emission reduction technologies compared to the net-zero 
scenarios. 100
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORHydrogen
There is increasing interest in using low-carbon hydrogen as a fuel in both Canada and 
globally. Like electricity, hydrogen can be an energy carrier that transports useable energy 
created elsewhere to another location. When consumed, hydrogen does not result in GHG 
emissions. For more information on the fundamentals of hydrogen, see the Government of 
Canada’s Hydrogen Strategy , released in late 2020. Our focus in this section is on hydrogen 
use as an energy carrier and its production by methods that emit little or no CO2.
We make projections about hydrogen use by simulating the energy choices of households 
and businesses, including the energy technologies and fuels they choose to use. We model 
hydrogen production to meet hydrogen use and export requirements. The type of hydrogen 
produced to meet that demand is based on technology costs, and the fuel availability and 
cost in different regions.
We project that low-emitting hydrogen use reaches over 8.5 MT19 in 2050 in the Global Net-
zero Scenario, about 12% of total energy use demand. In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, 
hydrogen use is slightly higher at nearly 9.5 MT. In the Current Measures Scenario, low-
emitting hydrogen demand is less than 1 MT by 2050, as fossil fuels remain an economically 
attractive energy source for many applications suitable for hydrogen.
We assume some hydrogen exports in all scenarios, reaching 5 MT in the Global Net-zero 
Scenario in 2050, 4.5 MT in the Canada Net-zero Scenario, and 2.5 MT in the Current 
Measures Scenario. 
19 Hydrogen is typically measured by mass. One MT is equivalent to approximately 120 PJ in energy terms.
KEY TRENDS
Hydrogen
• Hydrogen becomes a significant part of energy use in the net-zero scenarios, 
especially in the industrial and transportation sectors.
• Production of low emitting hydrogen comes from a mix of technologies, including 
natural gas with CCUS, electrolysis, and biomass gasification.101
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORHydrogen use
There are a wide variety of potential uses for hydrogen as an energy carrier in the 
energy system, ranging from transportation fuel, energy for building or industrial 
heat, or for electric power generation. Canada currently uses about 3 MT of 
hydrogen for industrial applications like oil sands upgrading and chemicals and 
fertilizer production. This existing hydrogen is counted as natural gas in Canada’s 
energy balances, and in our data appendices. This production uses natural gas 
as a feedstock and results in CO2 emissions that are not captured. 
As discussed in the Energy Demand section of this chapter, we project hydrogen 
to become a key fuel in the heavy freight and industrial sectors in both net-zero 
scenarios. In the Global Net-zero Scenario, hydrogen use in transportation 
reaches nearly 5 MT by 2050, or nearly 30% of energy use in the transportation 
sector. Hydrogen primarily fuels long-haul transportation in heavy trucks, marine 
shipping, and hydrogen-based fuels are used to help decarbonize aviation. 
Hydrogen is used in industries like chemicals, iron and steel, and petroleum 
refining. Total industrial hydrogen use reaches 2.5 MT in the Global Net-zero 
Scenario, and 3 MT in the Canada-Net-zero Scenario, by 2050. 
In both net-zero scenarios, hydrogen use grows modestly to 2035 
and accelerates thereafter
We also project some use of hydrogen for building heating in both net-zero 
scenarios, but uptake is limited to blending with natural gas to be used in 
a natural gas furnace. However, the market share of natural gas furnaces 
declines over the projection period in the net-zero scenarios. As discussed in 
the Electricity section, we do not project any hydrogen use in the power sector 
in the Global Net-zero Scenario, and a small amount in the Canada Net-zero 
Scenario, reaching 0.13 MT by 2050. We also project that hydrogen produced 
from natural gas without capturing CO2 declines and is replaced by low-emitting 
hydrogen sources. Figure R.40 shows hydrogen demand by end-use in the 
Global Net-zero Scenario. In total, hydrogen’s role in Canada’s energy system is 
modest until 2035, at which point it accelerates and grows steadily to 2050 in the 
net-zero scenarios.Figure R.40: 
Hydrogen demand by end-use, Global Net-zero Scenario
102
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORWhat if the technologies to enable wide-scale adoption of hydrogen are more or less costly? 
Canada is already one of the world’s largest producers and users of hydrogen. 
Most of this occurs in Alberta where hydrogen is produced from natural gas 
and is used as a feedstock in various industrial applications. Alberta’s Hydrogen 
Roadmap states 55% of production is used for heavy oil upgrading, 38% in the 
chemicals sector, and 7% for oil refining. At present, this hydrogen is produced 
using natural gas as a feedstock, a process which releases CO2 emissions. 
According to the Alberta Energy Regulator, 19% of the hydrogen produced in 
Alberta in 2021 was from facilities equipped with CCUS, with the remaining at 
facilities venting the CO2 to the atmosphere.
Many companies are actively expanding the production and use of hydrogen 
in Canada. An example of a recent project nearing completion is the Varennes 
Carbon Recycling plant, currently under construction in Quebec and aiming to 
be operational by 2025. The plant will produce biofuels and chemicals and will 
include an 87 MW electrolyzer to supply the hydrogen required for the process. 
Another example is the Air Products’ Canada Net-Zero Hydrogen Energy 
Complex in Alberta, which will use natural gas as a feedstock to produce low-
emission hydrogen using auto-thermal reforming technology, coupled with CCUS. 
Federal and provincial governments are supporting the expansion of 
hydrogen as a fuel
The federal government, British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec have all 
recently developed hydrogen strategies or roadmaps. The federal government 
is working to implement an investment tax credit for clean hydrogen and, along 
with many provinces, is supporting various proposed projects through technology 
funds and incentive programs. In EF2023, we make assumptions about the cost of the technologies used 
to produce hydrogen 
Along with prices for inputs like natural gas and electricity, these technology 
costs translate into the cost of hydrogen we rely on for modeling in our 
scenarios. Production costs range from $1.50/kg to 10.50/kg in 2030, and 
$1.00/kg to 7.00/kg by 2050, depending on production technologies and 
region. Our energy use model then considers how the relative costs of different 
fuels impacts household and business decision-making when investing in new 
energy-consuming devices. We also make assumptions about technology that 
use hydrogen, such as medium- and heavy-duty freight trucks, the amount of 
hydrogen blended into natural gas networks, and hydrogen exports.
“What if” hydrogen supply and demand is higher or lower than in the Global 
Net-zero Scenario?
We project hydrogen use in Canada reaches 8.5 MT in 2050 in the Global 
Net-zero Scenario. However, there is a wide range of factors that could result in 
different hydrogen supply and demand in the future, including different costs for 
technologies to produce and use hydrogen, and different amounts of hydrogen 
produced for export. In this “What If” analysis, we explore the impact on our 
projections if the drivers of hydrogen supply and demand are higher or lower 
than in the Global Net-zero Scenario. To do so, we modeled the Low and 
High Hydrogen cases, each with unique assumptions on hydrogen supply and 
demand technology costs, as well as hydrogen produced for export. These are 
summarized in Table R.6.103
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORTable R.6: 
Hydrogen-specific assumptions, Global Net-zero Scenario and High and Low Hydrogen cases
Global Net-zero Scenario Low Hydrogen Case High Hydrogen Case
Electrolyzer capital cost Capital costs declines 84% by 2050. Capital costs declines only 15% by 2050. Capital costs are 10% lower than the 
Global Net-zero scenario in 2050.
Hydrogen production from natural gas 
using CCUS capital costCapital costs declines 40% by 2050. Capital costs falls 25% by 2050. Capital costs falls 50% by 2050.
Hydrogen in transportation Fuel cell truck costs fall steadily, 
approaching parity with diesel vehicles in 
2035-2050 period.Fuel cell truck costs are less competitive 
with battery-electric trucks. Hydrogen-
based fuels play a lesser role in shipping 
and aviation.Fuel cell truck costs are more competitive 
with battery-electric trucks. Hydrogen-
based fuels play a greater role in shipping 
and aviation.
Hydrogen blending in natural gas 
networksHydrogen blending is 15-20% by volume 
for most provinces.Hydrogen blending limited to 5% by 
volume.Hydrogen blending limited to 20% by 
volume.
Hydrogen produced for export Hydrogen produced for export is 1 MT by 
2030 and 5 MT by 2050.Hydrogen produced for export is 1 MT by 
2030 and 2.5 MT by 2050.Hydrogen produced for export is 2.5 MT 
by 2030 and 8 MT by 2050.
The results of this “What if” analysis suggest that there is a wide range of possible 
levels of hydrogen use in the future. The Low Hydrogen Case shows a future 
where hydrogen plays a smaller role in Canada reaching net-zero by 2050. The 
High Hydrogen Case shows what could happen if hydrogen plays a bigger role in 
getting to net-zero. Figure R.41 compares hydrogen use and exports, as well as 
the technology used to produce it, in the Low and High Hydrogen cases and the 
Global Net-zero Scenario. In 2050, the Low Hydrogen Case shows demand and 
exports totaling 5 MT, 60% lower than in the Global Net-zero Scenario. The High 
Hydrogen Case shows demand and exports of 20 MT, 55% higher than in the 
Global Net-zero Scenario. Figure R.41: 
Hydrogen use and production in 2050, Global Net-zero Scenario,  
and High and Low Hydrogen cases
104
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORHigher or lower hydrogen use has implications for the overall end-use demand 
mix. Figure R.42 compares the end-use demand mix in 2050 for the Global 
Net-zero Scenario and the two hydrogen cases. In the Global Net-zero Scenario 
hydrogen makes up 12% of end-use demand in 2050, but this increases to 
nearly 20% in the High Hydrogen Case and falls to around 4% in the Low 
Hydrogen Case. At the end-use level, more hydrogen use in the High Hydrogen 
Case reduces electricity and bioenergy demands, while less hydrogen in the 
Low Hydrogen Case increases demands for electricity and bioenergy. Of course, 
energy is also needed to produce hydrogen, so compared to the Global Net-zero 
Scenario, overall demands for electricity and natural gas increase in the High 
Hydrogen Case and decrease in the Low Hydrogen Case.
Hydrogen is a versatile fuel that plays a key role in Canada’s energy mix in the 
Global Net-zero scenario. At the same time, the adoption of hydrogen within 
Canada, and development of export markets for Canadian hydrogen is uncertain. 
This “What if” analysis projects a range of potential levels of Canadian hydrogen 
demand, and shows that there are important implications for other energy use 
trends, including electricity and natural gas.Figure R.42: 
End-use demand in 2050, Global Net-zero Scenario and  
High and Low Hydrogen cases
105
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORFigure R.43: 
Hydrogen production by technology, Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios
Hydrogen production
In EF2023, we model hydrogen production from three technologies:
• Natural gas-based production, which uses steam methane reformation 
or autothermal reformation processes. The CO2 resulting from these 
processes is then captured and stored using CCUS. This process is 
sometimes referred to as blue hydrogen.
• Electrolysis, which uses water as a feedstock and emission-free electricity 
as an energy source. This process is sometimes referred to as green 
hydrogen.
• Biomass-based production, which uses biomass gasification to produce 
hydrogen. The CO2 resulting from these processes may or may not then 
be captured and stored using CCUS.
For more information about different types of hydrogen production methods in 
Canada and around the globe see the CER Market Snapshot: Hydrogen could be 
part of the global path to net-zero.
In the Global Net-zero Scenario, low-emitting hydrogen production is about 
2 MT by 2030, increasing to around 14 MT by 2050, with similar trends in the 
Canada Net-zero Scenario. By 2050, 32% of hydrogen production is natural 
gas-based, 58% is via electrolysis, and the remaining 10% is from biomass. 
The relatively high amount of electrolysis production is due to very large 
reductions in electrolyzer costs that we assume in the net-zero scenarios, which 
makes hydrogen produced from electricity the most cost-effective option in 
many regions. In the Current Measures Scenario, hydrogen production growth 
is limited, and largely from natural gas with CCUS. Figure R.43 shows hydrogen 
production by type of feedstock in both net-zero scenarios. 106
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORHydrogen created with bioenergy and using CCUS results in negative 
emissions
Biomass-based production of hydrogen increases to 1.5 MT in 2050 in the Global 
Net-zero Scenario. When coupled with CCUS, biomass hydrogen production 
results in negative emissions by permanently storing carbon that would otherwise 
be temporarily stored in plant matter. In the Global Net-zero Scenario, biomass 
hydrogen production results in 23 MT of negative GHG emissions by 2050.
Types of hydrogen production depend on local resources
We project that hydrogen production occurs in many provinces, with large 
volumes from Ontario, Alberta, Quebec, and BC. Hydrogen tends to be produced 
by electrolysis in regions rich with hydroelectric power, from natural gas in regions 
with lower cost natural gas and suitable CCUS storage reservoirs, and from 
biomass in regions with large biomass supplies. Notably, while electricity and 
hydrogen are both energy carriers, electricity itself is used to create hydrogen in 
our scenarios. There are energy losses in the electrolysis process but in some 
instances, there are benefits to using hydrogen instead of electricity. This is 
because hydrogen is more energy-dense compared to electricity stored in a 
battery. This makes it potentially attractive as a fuel for heavy freight compared to 
EVs, although this will ultimately depend on the future costs of both hydrogen and 
batteries. 
Hydrogen exports are supplied with a mix of electrolysis and natural gas 
with CCUS
In the Global Net-zero scenario, we assume over 3 MT of hydrogen is provided 
by dedicated on- and off-shore wind electricity in Atlantic Canada. These exports 
use over 165 TWh of wind electricity per year to produce hydrogen for export 
in 2050.20 In the Global Net-zero Scenario, energy used to produce hydrogen 
increases to about 20% of total primary energy demand by 2050. Of this energy 
use, 60% is electricity (including dedicated renewable projects that produce 
hydrogen for our assumed exports), 25% in natural gas, and the remaining 
15% is biomass. 
20 These volumes of electricity generation are not included in the electricity generation and capacity, or energy demand values, because they are assumed to not be separate from local electricity systems.  
The wind energy volumes are captured in the primary demand value discussed in the Energy Demand section.GHG emissions associated with hydrogen production
We project that GHG emissions from hydrogen production for use as an energy 
carrier are slightly positive from 2024 to 2032, a result of the fraction of emissions 
that are not captured by CCUS when hydrogen is produced from natural gas. 
By 2035, some biomass-based hydrogen production is coupled with CCUS and 
net emissions from the hydrogen sector become net-negative in both net-zero 
scenarios. By 2050, the net emissions from hydrogen production are -21 MT in 
the Global Net-zero Scenario and -25 MT in the Canada Net-zero Scenario. 
KEY UNCERTAINTIES
Hydrogen
• Domestic hydrogen markets and infrastructure: The use of 
hydrogen as a clean fuel, as projected in our net-zero scenarios, 
is currently in the early stages of development. The evolution 
of how and where hydrogen is adopted, the cost of production 
and end-use technologies, market pricing, and transportation 
infrastructure is uncertain. This could lead to different patterns of 
adoption than we project.
• Hydrogen exports: There are various proposed projects aimed at 
producing hydrogen for export. Our scenarios include varying levels 
of hydrogen produced for export as well as associated dedicated 
offshore wind generation built to power hydrogen production. 
However, export volumes could be different than we assume 
depending on how global and domestic markets develop.
107
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORNegative emissions
In most global and Canadian net-zero scenario analyses, net-zero outcomes 
include both positive and negative emissions that balance to zero at some point 
in the future. For some sources of GHG emissions, eliminating all emissions or 
reducing them at a pace sufficient to achieve zero emissions by 2050 may be 
very costly or impossible. In both of our net-zero scenarios, we project slightly 
positive emissions in 2050 in several sectors, including buildings, heavy industry, 
oil and gas, and transportation. These are balanced by negative emissions. 
Negative emissions can be realized in several ways, but all aim to remove CO2 
from the atmosphere on a permanent or long-term basis.
Nature can act as a carbon sink capable of storing carbon through 
natural processes
Managing natural processes to capture and store GHG emissions is often 
referred to as nature-based solutions. An example of a nature-based solution is 
the federal government’s 2 Billion Trees Commitment, which aims to plant two 
billion trees over 10 years to address both climate change and biodiversity loss. KEY TRENDS
Negative emissions
• Negative emissions play a key role in offsetting remaining 
emissions from other sectors.
• BECCS, direct air capture, and land use, land-use change and 
forestry (LULUCF) all play important roles in reaching net-zero.LULUCF emission reductions are uncertain
We do not model nature-based solutions in EF2023. Instead, we make 
assumptions about the emissions and removals from natural processes, which 
we account for in our assumptions about land-use, land-use change and forestry 
(LULUCF). We describe these assumptions in the previous chapter, Scenarios 
and Assumptions. We assume negative emissions from the LULUCF of 50 MT by 
2050 in both net-zero scenarios, and 13 MT in the Current Measures Scenario. 
However, there is some uncertainty on whether carbon stored through nature-
based solutions will be permanent. Wildfires, infestations from insects like the 
pine beetle, or natural decay could release stored carbon and result in reduced 
impact from LULUCF in the future. Lower negative emissions from LULUCF 
would mean that greater emissions reductions from other sectors, or more 
negative emissions from other sources, would be needed to achieve net-zero 
emissions.
A second source of negative emissions in both net-zero scenarios is the use of 
bioenergy with carbon capture and storage technology (BECCS). We describe 
our projections for BECCS in the electricity and hydrogen sections earlier in this 
chapter. BECSS delivers negative emissions through the combustion of biomass 
such as trees or crop waste to generate electricity, and then uses CCUS to 
permanently store the emissions. We project that the use of BECSS results in 
around 60 MT of negative emissions in both net-zero scenarios. 108
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORDAC is used to achieve negative emissions in both net-zero scenarios
DAC technology, which we describe in more detail in the following text box, 
is another option to achieve negative GHG emissions. In our analysis, we model 
DAC based on our assumptions about its costs and the profitability of capturing 
CO2 emissions directly from the atmosphere. We assume DAC facilities are 
compensated for capturing emissions by emitters who want to offset their 
own emissions.
In the Global Net-zero Scenario, we project that DAC facilities begin capturing 
emissions in the late 2030s, and by 2050, DAC results in negative emissions of 
46 MT. In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, DAC captures 55 MT of emissions by 
2050 and in the Current Measures Scenario, no DAC facilities are constructed. 
DAC technology requires significant energy to draw in air and separate, 
compress and store CO2
There are a variety of DAC processes being tested and commercialized; in our 
modeling we assume DAC operations require both electricity and natural gas to 
power the process. Emissions from the natural gas used in the process are also 
captured and stored. By 2050, energy used to power DAC facilities makes up 
4% of all end-use energy consumption in the Global Net-zero Scenario, and 5% 
in the Canada Net-zero Scenario.
Figure R.44 shows our assumptions about negative emissions from LULUCF 
and the negative emissions resulting from our modeling of BECCS and DAC, 
compared to total GHG emissions from the rest of the economy, in the Global 
Net-zero Scenario.Figure R.44: 
Net emissions, Global Net-zero Scenario
109
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORWhat if direct air capture (DAC) technology matures more quickly and is less costly?
DAC is an emerging technology that extracts CO2 directly from the atmosphere 
through a mix of physical and chemical processes. The CO2 can then be injected 
and stored in deep geological formations or be used as feedstock for different 
products such as synthetic fuels. By removing CO2 directly from the atmosphere, 
DAC has the potential to offset emissions from the activities whose emissions are 
hardest or most expensive to avoid.
According to a recent report by the IEA on Direct Air Capture, there are 18 
small-scale DAC plants operating in the world today, capturing a combined 0.01 
MT CO2 per year. Interest in DAC is growing; for example, by late 2024, U.S. 
oil producer Occidental Petroleum Corp aims to complete construction of the 
world’s largest DAC plant, which could remove up to 1 MT CO2 per year. This is 
the largest of a growing list of proposed DAC plants across North America and 
Europe.
DAC costs are uncertain, but may fall with time
While existing DAC plants demonstrate the technical feasibility of the technology, 
costs remain uncertain. Some estimates put the costs at between US$325 
and US$785 per tonne of CO2 captured for a plant built today.21 In comparison, 
Canada’s federal backstop carbon price is currently $65 per tonne of CO2e.
DAC deployment will depend on building and operation costs, as well as 
prices for emissions captured
As with many emerging technologies, it is possible that DAC costs will fall as 
new projects come online. Similarly, a higher price on carbon could present an 
incentive to build DAC facilities, either through direct compensation for captured 
CO2 or selling offsets to other industries looking to reduce their emissions. The 
role of DAC in Canada’s net-zero pathways will depend on the future of climate 
policies and the extent to which its costs will decline.In the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, DAC facilities capture 90 MT 
of CO2 by 2030 globally, less than half a percent of the CO2 emissions the IEA 
projects to be emitted in that year. This number rises to 980 MT of CO2 in 2050. 
Many other international net-zero pathways from other organizations see DAC 
taking a larger role in the future. Ultimately, the extent of its deployment will largely 
depend on its cost relative to other decarbonization options, as well as the price 
DAC facilities receive for emissions they capture.
In EF2023, we rely on assumptions about the cost of DAC, including the cost to 
absorb, isolate, transport, and store the CO2. Our projections of DAC in different 
scenarios are based on its cost (as discussed in Table A.2) relative to other 
decarbonization technologies. 
DAC deployment begins in the mid-2030s in the Global Net-zero Scenario
Given those assumptions, and the costs and characteristics of other carbon 
removal technologies, we project emission reductions from DAC to increase 
to 46 MT by 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario. We project most of the 
growth in DAC will occur starting in the mid-2030s once the most cost-effective 
decarbonization options are exhausted and the cost of DAC technology is lower.
DAC is an emerging and uncertain technology and could play a larger role in 
reducing Canada’s emissions to net-zero. In this “What if” analysis, we model the 
High DAC Case, where we assume that the cost of DAC falls to 2022$125 per 
tonne of CO2 by 2050, compared to 2022$230 per tonne of CO2 in the Global 
Net-zero Scenario. 
In the High DAC Case, DAC sequesters 85 MT CO2 in 2050, nearly double that 
of the Global Net-zero Scenario. Figure R.45 compares the relative importance 
of DAC in reducing Canada’s emissions, relative to Canada’s net emissions of 
732 MT in 2005.
21 World Resources Institute: 6 Things to Know About Direct Air Capture110
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORGreater use of DAC also impacts the energy system. First, more negative 
emissions from DAC means that the pressure to reduce emissions in other 
sectors is lower compared to a net-zero scenario with few negative emissions. 
Second, DAC processes use a large amount of energy. In the High DAC Case, 
more natural gas and electricity is used to operate DAC facilities.
DAC use increases energy demand in the High DAC Case
Figure R.46 shows the difference in energy demand between the High DAC 
Case and the Global Net-zero Scenario in 2050. Additional use of DAC increases 
natural gas demand by 1.5 Bcf/d (42 106m3/d), and electricity by 3.5 TWh. In the 
rest of the economy, more natural gas and other fossil fuels are used in the High 
DAC Case in place of some electricity, bioenergy, and hydrogen. The net effect of 
these changes is an over 600 PJ increase in energy use by 2050 relative to the 
Global Net-zero Scenario, or about a 7% increase. 
It is also possible that DAC might be used less than in the Global Net-zero 
Scenario. Less negative emissions from DAC would mean achieving net-zero will 
require more emission reductions from other parts of the economy. This could 
include greater use of electricity, bioenergy and hydrogen-based fuels, additional 
nature-based solutions to offset emissions, or a greater need for energy efficiency 
and conservation. 
DAC could account for an important share of Canada’s overall emission 
reductions. With faster technological advancement and increasing adoption, the 
High DAC Case shows a pathway where DAC accounts for over one tenth of the 
emission reductions required to reach net-zero. It also shows that greater DAC 
use could lead to significantly more natural gas and RPP demand than shown in 
the Global Net-zero Scenario.Figure R.45: 
Negative emissions from DAC, as a % of total GHG emissions in 2005,  
all scenarios
Figure R.46: 
Difference in energy use between the Global Net-zero Scenario and  
High DAC Case in 2050, by fuel
111
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORKEY UNCERTAINTIES
Negative emissions
• Reliance on nature-based solutions: In our analysis, we limited the reliance 
on nature-based solutions in order to focus more on the potential energy 
technologies available to reach net-zero. However, some recent Canadian 
net-zero studies assume higher contributions of land-use change to reach 
net-zero.22 The ultimate contribution of these emissions is uncertain and could 
be higher or lower than we assumed.
• Direct Air Capture: There is considerable uncertainty around the ability 
of DAC to contribute to Canada’s emission reductions. Cost trends could 
be significantly higher than we assume in the Global and Canada Net-zero 
Scenarios, and lead to different outcomes.
• Balancing remaining emissions with negative offsets: The balance of 
negative emissions versus remaining emissions in our scenarios is in line with 
other Canadian net-zero studies. If negative emission technologies progress 
less quickly than we assume, faster reductions will be needed in other areas 
of the economy, potentially involving stronger policy action. On the other hand, 
if negative emissions develop faster, it is possible less stringent policies will be 
needed to achieve net-zero emissions.
22 The Canadian Climate Institute assumes a land-use contribution of -80 MT by 2030 and -105 MT by 2050, and ECCC’s recent Canada’s Long-Term Strategy Submission to the UNFCCC assumes -100 MT by 2050 in all scenarios.112
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORMacroeconomics
The economy is a key driver of the energy system. Economic growth, industrial 
output, inflation, exchange rates, global demand, and population growth all 
influence energy supply and demand trends. The way they evolve will have a 
direct impact on Canada’s transition towards net-zero.
Figure R.47: 
Economic indicators, annual % change from 2019 to 2050, all scenarios
KEY TRENDS
Macroeconomics
• Continued population and economic growth across all scenarios.
• Slightly slower growth in the Global Net-zero and Canada  
Net-zero scenarios.The long-term projections for key economic variables are in Figure R.47. 
Real (adjusted for inflation) economic growth averages 1.4% per year over the 
projection period in the Global Net-zero scenario. Growth is slightly higher in the 
Canada Net-zero and Current Measures scenarios, largely driven by stronger oil 
and gas prices, production, and export levels. The Canada-US exchange rate 
varies across the three scenarios, also related to the large variation in oil and gas 
activity and prices.
Economic growth over the projection is generally slower than the historical 
average in all three scenarios. Reasons for slower growth include an aging 
population and slower global economic growth. 
KEY UNCERTAINTIES
Macroeconomics
• Global economic growth: Future global uncertainties, such as 
demand for Canadian exports, technology development, and 
commodity prices could impact future Canadian economic growth. 
This is especially true for the Global Net-zero Scenario, as policies 
and technologies used to reduce global emissions could lead to 
different macroeconomic outcomes than shown here. Likewise, 
geopolitical events, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, could 
impact future growth trends.
• Impacts of climate change: The three scenarios do not include 
macroeconomic estimates of damages related to climate change. 
These could significantly reduce economic growth, particularly in 
scenarios like Current Measures, where only limited measures to 
reduce climate change are included.
• Cost of decarbonization: The net-zero scenarios assume declining 
costs for key technologies, such as EVs, heat pumps, electrolyzers, 
and DAC. If these cost reductions do not materialize, achieving 
net-zero by 2050 could be more costly and involve lower economic 
growth than shown here.
113
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORAccess and Explore Energy Future Data
•  Figure Data (Excel) – Download the EF2023 figure data.
•  Full dataset (Open Gov) – Download all of the EF2023 data at once.
•  Data Appendix – Access customizable, downloadable tables arranged by variables.
•  Interactive Visualization – Interact and visualize EF2023 data behind long-term energy outlooks.
Student Resources
In partnership with Ingenium, the CER developed educational activities based on Canada’s forecasted energy demand and supply.
Targeted at students between the grades of 9 and 11, the activities encourage students and educators to explore Canada’s energy ecosystem using an interactive tool. 
This tool allows users explore how the future of energy in Canada over the long term. The material and student resources are available here.114
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORAbout the CER
The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) works to keep energy moving safely across the country. We review energy development projects and share energy information. 
We enforce some of the strictest safety and environmental standards in the world in a manner that respects the Government of Canada’s commitments to the rights of 
the Indigenous peoples of Canada. The CER regulates:
• Oil & Gas Pipelines – Construction, operation, and abandonment of interprovincial and international pipelines and related tolls and tariffs.
• Electricity Transmission – Construction and operation of international power lines and designated interprovincial power lines.
• Exports & Energy Markets – Exports of certain energy products; monitoring aspects of energy supply, demand, production, development, and trade.
• Exploration & production – Oil and gas exploration and production activities in the offshore and on frontier lands not covered by an accord.
• Offshore renewables – Offshore renewable projects and offshore power lines.
The Energy Information Program is one of four core CER responsibilities. We collect, monitor, analyze, and publish fact-based information on energy markets and 
supply, sources of energy, and the safety and security of pipelines and international power lines. Using tools like interactive pipeline maps and visualizations, we make 
complex pipeline and energy market data user-friendly and accessible.
Our Commitment:
• Canadians have access to and use energy information for knowledge, research, and decision-making.
• Canadians have access to community-specific information about CER-regulated pipelines, powerlines, and other energy infrastructure.
• Broader and deeper collaboration with stakeholders and partners informs our energy information.115
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORAbout this Report
The CER’s Energy Information core responsibility is closely linked to its mandate and responsibilities under the Canadian Energy Regulator Act (CER Act), which 
includes advising and reporting on energy matters. As well, under Part 7 of the CER Act, the Commission of the CER authorizes the export of natural gas, natural gas 
liquids, crude oil and petroleum products, and electricity. The Commission of the CER must not issue an authorization for the export of oil and gas unless it is satisfied 
that the quantity to be exported is surplus to Canadian requirements. The CER’s monitoring of energy markets and assessments of Canadian energy requirements and 
trends helps support the discharge of its regulatory responsibilities. This report, Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050, is the 
continuation of the Canada’s Energy Future series, and projects long-term Canadian energy supply and demand trends.
EF2023 was prepared by CER technical staff.
Specific questions about the information in this report may be directed to: energyfutures@cer-rec.gc.ca  
EF2023 was prepared by CER technical staff under the direction of:
Olivera Blagojevic  
Director, Energy Outlooks
Bryce van Sluys  
Project Lead
Michael Nadew  
Project Manager
Matthew Hansen  
Technical Leader, energy demand and emissions
Ganesh Doluweera  
Technical Leader, electricity and renewables
Mike Johnson  
Technical Leader, hydrocarbon supplyKey contributors by section:
Energy demand  
Gabi Diner  
Carlos Murillo
Electricity  
Eranda Bartholameuz  
Michael Nadew
Crude oil  
Ryan Safton  
Melanie Stogran
Natural Gas and NGLs  
Melanie Stogran
Hydrogen  
Michael Nadew
Macroeconomics  
Kevin Caron116
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORAppendix 1: Domestic Climate Policy Assumptions
Domestic climate policies include laws, regulations, and programs put in place by governments with the goal of reducing GHG emissions. Around 80% of Canada’s 
GHG emissions are energy-related, so climate policy aimed at reducing emissions will affect Canada’s energy system. We make assumptions about the climate policies 
we model in each scenario in EF2023. This appendix includes additional details about the climate policy assumptions, beyond those included in the Scenarios and 
Assumptions chapter.
Federal, provincial, and territorial climate policies that are currently in place are the basis of the Current Measures Scenario. A policy is “in place” if it was enacted prior 
to March 2023. We do not include announced policies that are not yet implemented in the Current Measures Scenario. 
The Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios include all in-place federal, provincial, and territorial climate policies. Both net-zero scenarios also include all announced 
but not-yet-implemented policies, to the extent possible. We applied the following criteria to determine whether an announced policy was included in our net-zero 
scenarios:
• The policy was announced prior to March 2023
• Sufficient details exist to model the policy
Final details of some of these policies were not available at the time of analysis. We include these policies by relying on assumptions about them, as necessary.
Table A1.1 provides an overview of all major federal policies included in the three scenarios. Table A2.2 provides an overview of key policies in provinces and territories. 
In the Global Net-zero and Canada Net-zero scenarios, if the federal policy is more stringent than its regional equivalent, the federal one is modelled instead.
For an exhaustive review of climate measures in Canada, see Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Fifth Biennial Report on Climate Change, 
and Canada’s revised NDC.
All dollar values are given in $2022 Canadian unless otherwise stated.117
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORTable A1.1: 
Overview of Major Federal Policies in the Global Net-zero, Canada Net-zero, and Current Measures Scenarios
Policy Description Global Net-zero and Canada Net-zero Scenarios Current Measures Scenario
Backstop carbon 
pricingApplies a regulatory charge on fossil fuels at 
the end-use level based on the relative GHG 
emissions intensity of fuels.The fuel charge rises from $50 per tonne ($50/t) by 2022, then to $140/t ($170/t in nominal dollars, 
not adjusted for inflation) by 2030. It remains constant in nominal terms from 2030 to 2050 or $95/t in 
inflation-adjusted terms by 2050.
Our modelling assumes most provincial systems follow this schedule, and by 2030 all provinces and 
territories match the federal price. 
Aggregate cost of 
carbonA hypothetical suite of policies, regulations, 
and programs in the 2030 to 2050 period 
represented by a carbon price that is added 
to the backstop carbon pricing.The aggregate cost of carbon is added to the carbon 
price backstop in both scenarios.  
Global Net-zero Scenario: Starting at $0/t CO2e 
(carbon dioxide equivalent) in 2030 and rising to $330 
in 2050.  
Canada Net-zero Scenario: Starting at $0/t CO2e in 
2030 and rising to $380 in 2050.Not included
Output-based pricing 
system (OBPS)A performance-based carbon pricing 
system for industrial facilities. Applies 
the carbon price for every ton of excess 
emissions above a specified annual intensity 
limit. This system maintains a marginal 
incentive for reducing CO2 emissions, but 
reduces the average cost of compliance 
so industries can maintain international 
competitiveness.Global Net-zero Scenario: A 2% yearly tightening rate 
on emissions intensity is applied from 2023 to 2030, 
followed by a 3% tightening rate until all emissions 
are covered in 2050. The backstop carbon price and 
aggregate cost of carbon is applied to emissions 
above the intensity limit.
Canada Net-zero Scenario: A 2% yearly tightening 
rate on emissions intensity is applied from 2023 to 
2050. The backstop carbon price and aggregate 
cost of carbon is applied to emissions above the 
intensity limit. Given that the rest of the world does 
not reach net-zero in the Canada Net-zero Scenario, 
this trajectory maintains a level of support for trade-
exposed industries.Most industrial sectors are required to reduce 
their emissions intensity by 20% relative 
to their 2014 to 2016 average from 2020 
to 2050. If a facility exceeds the emissions 
intensity limit, it must pay the backstop carbon 
price on excess emissions or submit eligible 
credits. If a facility’s emissions are below the 
limit, it receives credits to sell or use later for 
compliance.118
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORPolicy Description Global Net-zero and Canada Net-zero Scenarios Current Measures Scenario
Oil and gas emissions 
capA cap on emissions from the upstream 
oil and gas sector at a pace and scale 
necessary to achieve Canada’s goal of net-
zero by 2050, while allowing the sector to 
compete in a transitioning global economy.At the time of analysis, the oil and gas emissions 
cap was announced but was still in development. 
To model the emissions cap, we developed some 
simplifying assumptions for modeling purposes. 
These assumptions have no bearing on what the final 
policy will include.
The cap covers only upstream production sectors 
(oil sands, conventional oil production, natural gas 
production and processing). It covers all GHG 
emissions, including carbon dioxide and methane.
The cap requires a minimum emissions reduction of 
31% in total from 2005 from these sectors by 2030. 
We allow two years of flex time in meeting the 2030 
target to account for the length of time large-scale 
infrastructure like carbon capture, utilization, and 
storage (CCUS) takes to develop.
The cap declines to a 60% reduction from 2005 by 
2040, and net-zero by 2050.
In 2050, we allow the sector to achieve net-zero with 
negative emission offsets from direct air capture (DAC) 
and/or other net-negative sectors. These are capped 
at a maximum of 25 megatonnes (MT) to ensure most 
reductions occur within the sector, while also allowing 
flexibility for emissions abatement.
The cap is met by a sector-specific aggregate cost of 
carbon rising over time.Not included. 
Methane regulations 
for the upstream oil 
and gas sectorOil and gas facilities are required to 
reduce their methane emissions either 
through adoption of new methane control 
technologies or process change.Facilities must reduce their methane emissions by 40-
45% from 2012 levels by 2025 and 75% by 2030.Facilities must reduce their methane emissions 
by 40-45% from 2012 levels by 2025.
Investment tax credit 
for CCUSA federal investment tax credit for CCUS 
projects that permanently store captured 
CO2 in geological storage or in concrete.An investment tax credit for capital investments in CCUS. Tax credit is set at 50% of upfront costs for 
CCUS. The tax credit for carbon capture is 50% until 2030, 25% from 2031-2040, and 0% onwards.119
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORPolicy Description Global Net-zero and Canada Net-zero Scenarios Current Measures Scenario
Net-zero accelerator 
initiative and strategic 
innovation fundA federal investment of $3 billion over five 
years for the development and adoption 
of low-carbon technologies in all industrial 
sectors. Budget 2021 provided an 
additional $5 billion over seven years for the 
Net Zero Accelerator. Development and adoption of low-carbon 
technologies in the industrial sector. Examples 
include fuel switching to low-carbon heat sources, 
adoption of inert anodes, CCUS, replacing fossil fuel 
feedstocks, hydrogen-based steel making, and DAC.Examples include fuel switching to low-carbon 
heat sources, adoption of inert anodes, and 
CCUS.
Clean Electricity 
RegulationsThe Clean Electricity Regulations would 
establish an emissions performance 
standard having an intensity form (i.e., t/
GWh). It would be set at a stringent, near-
zero value in line with direct emissions from 
well-performing, low-emitting generation 
such as, geothermal or combined cycle 
natural gas with CCS. Net-zero electricity generation by 2035 through to 
2050. Small generating units and those that produce 
electricity for remote communities are excluded from 
the regulation.
The full regulatory details of the Clean Electricity 
Regulations are still under development. We follow the 
details in the Proposed Frame for the Clean Electricity 
Regulations. Not included. Electricity generation facilities 
are covered under the OBPS.
Phase out of coal-fired 
generation of electricityA carbon intensity performance standard for 
coal-fired power plants.Limits emissions intensity of existing coal-fired electricity generation to 420 t/CO2e per gigawatt hour 
(GWh) by 2030. 
National energy code 
for buildingsSets out technical requirements for the 
energy-efficient design and construction of 
new buildings.New buildings are “net-zero energy ready” by 2030 
and net-zero by 2050. These codes are still under 
development, so we follow modeling in the Emission 
Reduction Plan that result in substantial increases in 
the efficiency of building shells.Assumes that the 2017 building code applies 
throughout the projection period, with 
marginal efficiency improvements to building 
shells and space conditioning.
Energy Efficiency 
RegulationsMinimum energy efficiency standards for 
energy-using technologies in the residential, 
commercial, and industrial sectors (e.g. 
space conditioning equipment, water 
heaters, household appliances, lighting).Marginal efficiency gains occur from 2030-2050. Includes Amendment 17 to the Energy 
Efficiency Regulations. Energy efficiency gains 
end in 2030 and are carried through to 2050.
Hydrofluorocarbon 
(HFC) regulationA phase down of HFC consumption from a 
baseline.An 85% reduction in consumption of HFCs by 2050 from 2019 levels.120
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORPolicy Description Global Net-zero and Canada Net-zero Scenarios Current Measures Scenario
Zero Emissions Vehicle 
(ZEV) mandateA sales mandate for new light-, medium-, 
and heavy-duty vehicles that increases in 
stringency over time. The ZEV sales target for light-duty vehicles is 20% by 
2026, 60% by 2030, and 100% by 2035. Medium- 
and heavy-duty sales targets are 35% by 2030 and 
100% by 2040, where feasible. At the time of analysis, 
these regulations were still under development. We 
made the simplifying assumption that 80% of sales 
met the threshold of “feasible” by 2040, and over 
95% by 2050.Not included. Provincial mandates for ZEV 
sales can be found in Table A.1.2
ZEV incentives Major policies include the iZev subsidy 
program, the iMHZEV subsidy program, 
funding for charging network initiatives, and 
tax write-offs for businesses. Vehicle purchase rebates and assumptions on the build-out of infrastructure needed for charging and 
refueling ZEVs.
Light-duty vehicle 
GHG emissions 
standardsNew light-duty vehicles sold in Canada 
must meet progressively more stringent 
GHG emissions standards. Incorporates LDV-1 (2011-2016) and LDV-2 (2017-2026) Light-duty vehicle GHG emission standards. 
In the projection period, new light-duty vehicle fuel economy improves approximately 5% per year to 
2026.
Heavy-duty vehicle 
GHG emission 
standardsNew heavy-duty vehicles sold in Canada 
must meet progressively more stringent 
GHG emission standards. Incorporates HDV-1 (2014-2018) and HDV-2 (2021-2027) heavy-duty vehicle GHG emission 
standards. In the projection period, new heavy-duty vehicle fuel economy improves approximately 
2-3% per year to 2027.
Clean fuel regulations Reduction in carbon intensity of gasoline 
and diesel over time, through several 
mechanisms, including: 
supplying low-carbon fuels (e.g. ethanol), 
end-use fuel switching in transportation 
fuels (e.g. electric and hydrogen vehicles), 
and upstream projects (e.g. CCS).Carbon intensity decrease of 12g CO2e/megajoule 
(CO2e/MJ) below 2016 levels by 2030. Post 2030, we 
make the simplifying assumption that fuels continue 
the same rate of decrease (about 1.2g  CO2e/MJ 
per year). This decrease is modeled as an increasing 
share of renewable fuels and increased renewable 
natural gas blending, incentivized by the regulation’s 
credit creation mechanism.Carbon intensity decrease of 12g CO2e/MJ 
below 2016 levels by 2030.
Renewable fuel 
regulationsMinimum renewable fuel content for all 
regions except for Newfoundland and 
Labrador and the Territories.Specifies a minimum renewable fuel content of 5% in gasoline and 2% in diesel fuel sold in Canada by 
volume.121
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORPolicy Description Global Net-zero and Canada Net-zero Scenarios Current Measures Scenario
Northern REACHE 
programProgram to reduce diesel use for electricity 
and heat in remote communities.Increase the market share of alternative technologies.
Fertilizer emissions 
reduction targetTarget to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 
from fertilizer application in agriculture by 
30% below 2020 levels by 20302030 target met, with reductions starting in 2023 and 
additional reductions achieved post 2030.Not included.
Proposed municipal 
solid waste (MSW) 
landfill methane 
emissions regulationsProposed approaches for MSW landfills to 
help meet Canada’s commitment under the 
Global Methane Pledge of reducing global 
methane emissions by 30% below 2020 
levels by 2030.MSW landfill methane emissions are reduced by 
45% below 2020 levels by 2030 (as per federal 
government projections), with additional reductions 
achieved post-2030.Not included.122
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORRegion Policy Description
British Columbia Zero Emissions Vehicle Act Requires automakers to sell a minimum share of zero- or low-emission vehicles via a 
credit market.  Achieves 10% light-duty zero-emission vehicles sales by 2025, 30% by 
2030, and 100% by 2040.
CleanBC Go Electric Program Incentives for electric vehicles and charging station installation. Includes rebates for light-
duty vehicles of up to $3,000 and up to 50% of charger installations.
CleanBC Industry Fund Government investment into low-emission technologies using a portion of carbon pricing 
revenue above $30/tCO2e to support competitiveness in industry.
CleanBC Better Homes and Better Buildings 
programIncentives for residential and commercial building efficiency improvements.
Energy Efficiency Act Sets energy efficiency performance standards for energy-using technologies.
Low Carbon Fuel Standard Requires a decrease in the average carbon intensity of 30% by 2030 from 2020 for 
transport fuels through several compliance pathways. 
Renewable Fuel Regulation A minimum renewable fuel content of 5% ethanol for gasoline and 3% biodiesel for 
diesel fuel.
Renewable Natural Gas Regulation Requires that 15% of natural gas consumption be provided by renewable natural gas 
by 2030. Table A1.2
Overview of the major provincial policies included in all three scenarios23
23 In the Global Net-zero and Canada Net-zero scenarios, if the federal policy is more stringent than its regional equivalent, the federal one is modelled instead.123
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORRegion Policy Description
Alberta Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Requires renewable fuels to be blended into gasoline and diesel fuel.
CCUS investments Investments in CCUS projects, including the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line and Quest 
projects. 
Methane emissions reduction regulation Requires the reduction of methane emissions from oil and gas operations by 45% by 
2025 relative to 2014 levels.
Saskatchewan Ethanol Fuel Regulations and Renewable Diesel Act Regulations requiring a minimum of 7.5% of ethanol content in gasoline and 2% biodiesel 
content in diesel. 
Methane Action Plan Requires the reduction of methane emissions from oil and gas operations by 45% by 
2025 relative to 2015 levels.
Manitoba Biofuels Mandate amendment Regulations requiring a minimum of 10% ethanol content in gasoline and 2% biodiesel 
content in diesel. 
Efficiency Manitoba Act Rebates and other incentives on lighting, air conditioning, and building shell rebates 
across residential, commercial, and some industrial sectors.
Green Energy Equipment tax credit A 15% tax credit on geothermal heat pumps in residential and commercial sectors.
Ontario Cleaner Transportation Fuels: Renewable content 
requirements for gasoline and diesel fuelsA regulation requiring 15% ethanol content in gasoline and 4% biodiesel content in diesel 
by 2030.124
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORRegion Policy Description
Quebec Western Climate Initiative cap-and-trade regime A cap-and-trade system for industrial and electricity sectors, as well as fossil fuel 
distributors. Declining annual caps are set out to 2030 and the revenue generated by the 
policy is invested in low-carbon technologies. As caps are not set after 2030, the federal 
pricing systems (fuel charge and OBPS) apply.
Renewable Natural Gas Regulation Minimum 5% renewable natural gas content in natural gas by 2025. 
Chauffez Vert Program Rebates for residential renewable energy space or water heating systems, if replacing 
fossil fuel system.
Roulez Vert Program Incentives for electric vehicles and charging station installations. Rebates include up to 
$8,000 for new vehicles and $600 for home charging stations.
Zero Emissions vehicle standard Requires automakers to sell a minimum share of zero- or low-emission vehicles via a 
credit market. The credit target is 100% by 2035.
New Brunswick Energy Efficiency programs Provides purchase incentives for energy efficient appliances in residential, commercial, 
and industrial sectors.
Nova Scotia EfficiencyNS Programs Incentives for residential, commercial, transportation and some industrial sectors. 
Incentives include the transition from oil heating to electric, heat pumps, and charging 
stations. 
Newfoundland and 
LabradorEnergy Efficiency Programs Incentives for residential, commercial, and some industrial sectors. These programs 
include a home energy savings program, heat pump rebates, and commercial sector 
rebates for select appliances.125
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORRegion Policy Description
Prince Edward Island EfficiencyPEI Rebates Incentives for residential, commercial, and some industrial sectors. Various rebates on 
energy-efficient appliances, such as heat pumps, solar systems, biomass heating, and 
fuel-efficient furnaces.
Northwest Territories 2030 Energy Strategy Measures that aim to support low-carbon energy for transportation and space heating.  
Includes promoting the use of wood as an alternative source of energy to fossil fuels, 
supporting the development and implementation of community energy plans, incentives 
for energy efficiency and alternative energy projects, support for alternatives to diesel 
electricity generators, rebates for zero- and low-emission vehicles.
Yukon Our Clean Future Measures including 10% ZEV new sales by 2025 and 30% by 2030, ZEV rebates, 
blending of renewable fuels into diesel and gasoline, energy efficiency incentives and 
regulations, and renewable energy projects for remote communities.126
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORAppendix 2: Technology Assumptions
This appendix outlines key technology assumptions included in the Current Measures, Global Net-zero, and Canada Net-zero Scenarios. The percent changes in the 
assumptions are relative to 2021 unless otherwise noted. All costs are in $2022 CAD unless otherwise noted.
Table A2.1
Key Technology Assumptions
  Global Net-zero  Canada Net-zero  Current Measures 
Buildings 
Heat pumps(a)Cost declines 15% by 2030 and 
40% by 2050.Cost declines 13% by 2030 and 
34% by 2050.Cost declines 7% by 2030 and 20% by 2050.
Building shell*  Efficiency of new buildings 
improves 80% by 2050. Efficiency of new buildings 
improves 80% by 2050.Efficiency of new buildings varies regionally from 20-50% by 2050.
Hydrogen and renewable 
natural gas (RNG) blending Hydrogen: Maximum blending of 20% by volume, which occurs 
where economics are favourable. 
 
RNG: feedstock supply constraints limit blending up to 10-15% of 
natural gas content by 2050. Hydrogen price remains high and thus no blending occurs. 
 
RNG: only provinces with RNG mandates. 
Heavy industry 
Carbon capture, utilization, and 
storage (CCUS) (b)Capture costs are different by industry and range from $45-200/
tCO2 by 2030 and $30-160/tCO2 from 2030-2050.Capture costs are different by industry and range from $45-200/
tCO2 through the projection period.
Iron and steel: electric arc 
furnaces (EAF) Some facilities transition from coal to EAF(c) and from coal to direct reduced iron EAF.(d) 
Hydrogen in steel production: 
Hydrogen direct reduced Iron 
(H2-Dri)(e) Assume availability of technology at scale and adoption of 
economic conditions allow.Assume technology is not available at scale.
Aluminum production: Inert 
anodes(f) 20% adoption by 2030 and a linear incline to 100% by 2050.  20% adoption of inert anodes. 127
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORHydrogen and renewable natural 
gas blending Hydrogen: Maximum blending of 20% by volume, blending occurs 
where economics are favourable. 
 
RNG: supply constraints limit blending up to 10-15% of natural gas 
content by 2050. Hydrogen price remains too high for blending to occur. 
 
RNG: only provinces with RNG mandates. 
Transportation 
Passenger battery electric 
vehicles(g) Vehicle cost declines from by 
30% by 2030 and 38% by 
2050 (compared to $40-60,000 
currently).Vehicle cost declines 28% by 
2030 and 36% by 2050.Vehicle cost declines 26% by 2030 and 33% by 2050.
Medium and heavy-duty 
hydrogen fuel cell trucks(h)Fuel cell truck costs fall steadily, approaching parity with diesel 
vehicles in the 2035-2050 period (approximately $150,000 to 
$200,000 for a Class 8 diesel truck).Fuel Cell truck costs remain near current levels.
Medium and heavy-duty battery 
electric trucks(i)Battery electric truck costs fall steadily, approaching parity with 
diesel vehicles in the 2035-2050 period (approximately $150,000 to 
$200,000 for a Class 8 diesel truck).Battery electric and fuel cell truck costs remain near current levels.
Sustainable aviation fuel(j)Following IEA WEO international context, 40% of jet fuel needs met 
with bioenergy, 30% with hydrogen-based aviation fuel by 2050.Not included. 
Electricity Generation 
Wind electricity(k)Capital cost declines from 
$1,900/kW in 2020 to $1,752/
kW by 2030 and $1,630/kW by 
2050  (14% below 2020).Capital cost declines from 
$1,900/kW in 2020 to $1,763/
kW by 2030 and $1,668/kW by 
2050  (12% below 2020). Capital cost declines from $1,900/kW in 2020 to $1,791/kW by 
2030 and $1,736/kW by 2050  (9% below 2020).
Solar electricity(l)  Capital cost declines from 
$1,400/kW in 2020 to $790/kW 
by 2030 and $535/kW by 2050  
(62% below 2020). Capital cost declines from 
$1,400/kW in 2020 to $840/kW 
by 2030 and $585/kW by 2050  
(58% below 2020).Capital cost declines from $1,400/kW in 2020 to $905/kW by 2030 
and $675/kW by 2050 (52% below 2020).
Battery storage (4 hr) (m)  Capital cost declines from 
$2,198/kW in 2020 to $952/kW 
by 2030 and $549/kW by 2050  
(75% below 2020).Capital cost declines from 
$2,198/kW in 2020 to $1,261/
kW by 2030 and $925/kW by 
2050 (58% below 2020). Capital cost declines from $2,198/kW in 2020 to $1,563/kW by 
2030 and $1,506/kW by 2050 (32% below 2020).128
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORNatural gas combined cycle with 
CCS(n) Capital cost declines from 
$3,705/kW in 2020 to $2,625/
kW by 2030 and $2,075/kW by 
2050 (44% below 2020).Capital cost declines from 
$3,705/kW in 2020 to $3,005/
kW by 2030 and $2,530/kW by 
2050 (32% below 2020). Capital cost declines from $3,705/kW in 2020 to $3,385/kW by 
2030 and $2,990/kW by 2050 (19% below 2020).
Nuclear small modular reactors(o)  Capital cost declines from 
$9,262/kW in 2020 to $8,348/
kW by 2030 and $6,519/kW by 
2050 (30% below 2020).Capital cost declines from 
$9,262/kW in 2020 to $8,348/
kW by 2030 and $6,519/kW by 
2050 (30% below 2020). Capital cost declines from $9,262/kW in 2020 to $8,595/kW by 
2030 and $7,400/kW by 2050 (20% below 2020).
Oil and Gas Production 
Carbon capture, utilization, and 
storage(p)Capture costs range from $45-125/tCO2 by 2030 and $30-90/tCO2 from 2030-2050.
Oil sands process efficiency Oil sands process efficiency improves by 1% per year.
Hydrogen 
Electrolyzer(q)Capital cost declines 80% by 
2030 and 84% by 2050.Capital cost declines 74% by 
2030 and 82% by 2050.Capital cost declines 62% by 2030 and 70% by 2050.
Natural gas with CCUS Capital cost declines 25% by 2030 and 40% by 2050. Capital cost declines 20% by 2030 and 25% by 2050.
Biomass  Capital cost declines 18% by 2030 and 25% by 2050. Capital cost declines 16% by 2030 and 20% by 2050.
Transportation and distribution of 
hydrogenWe assume appropriate transmission and distribution networks gets built to safely and reliably transport hydrogen from producers to 
consumers, to enable hydrogen adoption throughout the energy system.
Carbon Management and Non-energy GHG Emissions 
Direct air capture(r)Capture cost declines to $330/
tCO2 by 2035 and $230/tCO2 by 
2050.Capture cost declines to $350/
tCO2 by 2035 and $250/tCO2 
by 2050.Capture cost remains at $400 to $450/tCO2 over the projection 
period.
Land-use, land-use change, and 
forestry (LULUCF)(s)30 and 50 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt of CO2e) 
removed by 2030 and 2050, respectively. This assumption is based 
on a literature review of other Canadian net-zero projections and 
on the feasibility of nature-based climate solutions in Canada, 
including an  on Nature-Based Climate Solutions from the Council 
of Canadian Academies.13 megatonnes (MT) of CO2e removed by 2030 and kept at same 
level to 2050. Consistent with recent projections from Environment 
and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).129
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORWaste(t)Assumes GHG emissions from solid waste disposal are reduced by 
45% below 2020 levels by 2030, in line with the estimated impact 
of proposed landfill methane regulations. Assumes additional 
reductions are achieved by 2050 to a level of 57% below 2020 
levels via other waste diversion and reduction measures.Waste and GHG emissions generation intensity factors follow 
historical 2001 to 2021 trends for 2022 to 2050, based on the 2023 
national inventory report (NIR) data.
Non-energy agriculture(u)  GHG emissions intensity of enteric fermentation,* manure 
management, and agricultural soils activities declines as of 2023 
to a conservative average of 23% below current measures’ levels 
in 2050, based on a review of the literature. Also assumes the 
Government of Canada’s fertilizer emissions reduction target of 
30% below 2020 levels by 2030 is met, then increases linearly to a 
40% reduction by 2040 and 50% by 2050.    Animal and crop production activities’ GHG emissions intensity 
factors follow historical 2001 to 2021 trends for 2022 to 2050 if 
negative (based on 2023 NIR 2023 data), or decline at 0.25%/yr.
 
Sources and notes:
a. IEA World Energy Outlook 2022, NREL Electrification Futures Study .
b. Various sources including: Global CCS Institute, Leeson et al 2017, International CCS Knowledge Centre, IEA Levelized cost of CO2 capture.
c. For an example of coal to EAF see Algoma Steel.
d. For an example of coal to direct reduced iron EAF see ArcelorMittal Dofasco.
e. IEA Clean Energy Technology Guide.
f. For an example of intert anodes see Elysis Carbon-Free Aluminum Facility .
g. IEA World Energy Outlook 2022, EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2022.
h. EPRI US-REGEN Documentation Version 2021 LCRI, On-Road Fleet Vehicles.
i. EPRI US-REGEN Documentation Version 2021 LCRI, On-Road Fleet Vehicles.
j. IEA World Energy Outlook 2022, Canada’s Aviation Climate Action Plan.
k. NREL Annual Technology Baseline, IEA World Energy Outlook 2022.
l. NREL Annual Technology Baseline, IEA World Energy Outlook 2022.
m. NREL Annual Technology Baseline, IEA World Energy Outlook 2022.130
CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORn. NREL Annual Technology Baseline, IEA World Energy Outlook 2022.
o. NRCan 2020, NREL Annual Technology Baseline.
p. Various sources including: Global CCS Institute, Leeson et al 2017, International CCS Knowledge Centre, IEA Levelized cost of CO2 capture, Quest Carbon 
Capture and Storage Project: Annual Report, Ordorica-Garcia, et al 2011.
q. IEA World Energy Outlook 2022.
r. EPRI US-REGEN Documentation Version 2021 LCRI, IEA Direct Air Capture 2022.
s. Canada’ s 8th National Communication and 5th Biennial Report 2022, Canada’s LTS submission to the UNFCCC 2022, CCA NBCS 2022, Drever et al. 2021, 
Smith 2020.
t. Canada’s 8th National Communication and 5th Biennial Report 2022,  Canada’s 2030 emissions reduction plan, Chapter 3 2022.
u. McKinsey, Agriculture and climate change 2020, RBC, The Next Green Revolution 2022, SPI, NZ: Implications for Canadian Agriculture 2021, Trottier, Canadian 
Energy Outlook 2021.© His Majesty the King in Right of Canada as represented by the Canada Energy Regulator 2023  
www  .cer-rec .gc .ca/energyfutures

In [ ]:
prompt3 = "Next, I want to extract and summarize the energy related policies for Canada based on some text documents. I will provide you with text, \
and you will create a list of policy summary of how Canada implemented or plan their energy usage or other relative policies related to energy. \
Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text \
and website. You should not include any personal opinions or interpretations in your summary, but rather focus on objectively presenting the information from \
the report. Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, and accurately reflects the content of the original text: '{input}'.".format(input = canada_energy_text)

# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt3[:min(len(prompt3),40000)]
Out[ ]:
"Next, I want to extract and summarize the energy related policies for Canada based on some text documents. I will provide you with text, and you will create a list of policy summary of how Canada implemented or plan their energy usage or other relative policies related to energy. Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text and website. You should not include any personal opinions or interpretations in your summary, but rather focus on objectively presenting the information from the report. Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, and accurately reflects the content of the original text: 'Canada’s Energy Future 20232\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORPermission to Reproduce\nMaterials may be reproduced for personal, educational and/or  \nnon-profit activities, in part or in whole and by any means, without \ncharge or further permission from the Canada Energy Regulator, \nprovided that due diligence is exercised in ensuring the accuracy of \nthe information reproduced; that the Canada Energy Regulator is \nidentified as the source institution; and that the reproduction is not \nrepresented as an official version of the information reproduced, nor \nas having been made in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of \nthe Canada Energy Regulator.\nIf a party wishes to rely on material from this report in any regulatory \nproceeding before the CER, it may submit the material, just as it \nmay submit any public document. Under these circumstances, the \nsubmitting party in effect adopts the material and that party could be \nrequired to answer questions pertaining to the material.\nThis report does not provide an indication about whether any \napplication will be approved or not. The Commission will decide  \non specific applications based on the material in evidence before it  \nat that time.\nFor permission to reproduce the information in this publication for \ncommercial redistribution, please e-mail: info@cer-rec.gc.ca\n© His Majesty the King in Right of Canada as \nrepresented by the Canada Energy Regulator 2023\nCanada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand \nProjections to 2050\nPDF: NE2-12E-PDF \nPaper: NE2-12E\nISSN 2562-069X (Print)\nISSN 2292-1710 (Electronic)\nKey title: Canada's Energy Future\nThis report is published separately in both official languages. \nThis publication is available upon request in multiple formats.Autorisation de reproduction\nLe contenu de cette publication peut être reproduit à des fins \npersonnelles, éducatives et(ou) sans but lucratif, en tout ou en partie \net par quelque moyen que ce soit, sans frais et sans autre permission \nde la Régie de l'énergie du Canada, pourvu qu’une diligence \nraisonnable soit exercée afin d’assurer l’exactitude de l’information \nreproduite, que la Régie de l'énergie du Canada soit mentionnée \ncomme organisme source et que la reproduction ne soit présentée \nni comme une version officielle ni comme une copie ayant été faite \nen collaboration avec la Régie de l'énergie du Canada ou avec \nson consentement. \nQuiconque souhaite utiliser le présent rapport dans une instance \nréglementaire devant la Régie peut le soumettre à cette fin, comme \nc’est le cas pour tout autre document public. Une partie qui agit ainsi \nse trouve à adopter l’information déposée et peut se voir poser des \nquestions au sujet de cette dernière. \nLe présent rapport ne fournit aucune indication relativement à \nl’approbation ou au rejet d’une demande quelconque. La Régie \nétudie chaque demande en se fondant sur les documents qui lui sont \nsoumis en preuve à ce moment. \nPour obtenir l’autorisation de reproduire l’information contenue \ndans cette publication à des fins commerciales, faire parvenir un \ncourriel\xa0à\xa0: info@cer-rec.gc.ca\n© Sa Majesté le Roi de droit du Canada représenté \npar la Régie de l’énergie du Canada 2023\nAvenir énergétique du Canada en 2023 - Offre et demande \nénergétiques à l’horizon 2050\nPDF : NE2-12F-PDF \nPapier : NE2-12F\nISSN 2562-0703 (version imprimée)\nISSN 2292-1729 (version électronique)\nTitre clé : Avenir énergétique du Canada\nCe rapport est publié séparément dans les deux langues officielles. \nOn peut l'obtenir sur supports multiples, sur demande.CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORTable of Contents\nMessage from the Chief Executive Officer  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1\nExecutive Summary   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4\nKey Findings ................................................ 7\nIntroduction  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16\nScenarios and Assumptions   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20\nScenario premise  ........................................... 20\nKey assumptions  ........................................... 26\nDomestic climate policy ..................................... 26\nTechnology  .............................................. 32\nCrude oil and natural gas markets ............................. 34\nNon-energy and land use, land-use change and forestry emissions  \n(LULUCF) ................................................ 38\nResults   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39\nGreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions  .............................. 40\nCanada’s GHG emission profile ............................... 40\nGHG emission projections ................................... 42\nEnergy demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46\nResidential and commercial .................................. 48\nIndustrial  ................................................ 52\nTransportation  ............................................ 56\nPrimary energy demand ..................................... 61Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63\nElectricity use ............................................. 64\nElectricity production ....................................... 68\nEnergy use associated with electricity generation  ................. 80\nGHG emissions associated with electricity generation .............. 80\nOil and natural gas production  ................................. 82\nCrude oil  ................................................ 82\nNatural gas  .............................................. 93\nNatural gas liquids ......................................... 96\nEnergy use in the oil and gas sector  ........................... 98\nGHG emissions from the oil and gas sector ...................... 99\nHydrogen  ................................................ 100\nHydrogen use  ........................................... 101\nHydrogen production ...................................... 105\nGHG emissions associated with hydrogen production ............. 106\nNegative emissions ......................................... 107\nMacroeconomics  .......................................... 112\nAccess and Explore Energy Future Data   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113\nAbout the CER  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114\nAbout this Report   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115\nAppendix 1: Domestic Climate Policy Assumptions  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116\nAppendix 2: Technology Assumptions   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1261\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORMessage from the \nChief\xa0Executive Officer\nAs with past versions of Canada’s Energy Future, EF2023 explores how \npossible energy futures might unfold for Canadians over the long term. In this \nanalysis, we begin with the end goal in mind: net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) \nemissions in 2050, and use our models to identify pathways to that point. \nThis\xa0is a different approach compared to past versions of the report where \nwe ran our models without restrictions, giving us insights into what a given \npremise meant for the future.\nIn this report we explore a key question about Canada’s energy future: what \ncould reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 look like? This report is not a \nprediction or a recommendation. It presents net-zero scenarios that can help \nCanadians and policy makers see what a net-zero world could look like, \nvisualize the goal, and make informed\xa0decisions.I am proud to introduce the 2023 edition of  \nCanada’s Energy Future—our most ambitious report \nyet, and the Canada Energy Regulator’s (CER) first \nlong-term outlook modeling net-zero by 2050\n1\n2\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORWe know that modeling the pathways to net-zero is a big challenge. Canada’s energy \nsystem is complex and diverse, and how we produce and use energy in net-zero \nworld will be dramatically different than it is today. As you’ll read in this report, there \nare some key components of this dramatically different world:\n• Electricity becomes the cornerstone of the net-zero energy system. Devices \nthat we use every day that use fossil fuels are replaced by technologies that \nuse electricity. By 2050, technologies like electric vehicles and heat pumps \nbecome commonplace.\n• Low-carbon fuels like hydrogen and biofuels enable the energy system’s path \nto net-zero, while carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) helps to \nreduce emissions in many industries and the power generation sector.\n• In a future with ambitious global climate action, global demand for fossil fuels \nfalls steeply, reducing oil and natural gas prices and Canadian production of \nthose commodities.\nUncertainty is inherent in all energy modeling exercises, including EF2023. And I am \nsure not everyone will agree with the assumptions we made, nor our findings. To \naddress uncertainty about the future, we look at three scenarios in EF2023, two of \nwhich explore net-zero. We also introduce five additional “What if” cases that ask \nhow changing some of our assumptions could impact Canada’s pathway to net-zero. \nOur analysis is a means to understand what the future could look like under a certain \npremise and set of assumptions. Relying on just one scenario to understand the \nenergy future implies too much certainty about what could happen.\n3\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIt is important to state that the pathway to net-zero is broader than the technical \nand economic considerations that are the primary focus of EF2023. Policy \nchoices, the regulatory landscape, Canada's journey towards Reconciliation, \nand societal preferences will each play a critical role in Canada’s energy future. \nEF2023 is another step in the CER’s net-zero modeling journey. We continue to \nlearn and look forward to building on this report in the years to come. \nThe CER’s energy information work is a key part of our mandate as an \nindependent regulatory body. We do not develop government policies nor assess \nthe appropriateness of such policies, and the assumptions, narrative, and results \nin EF2023 do not represent an official government position or policy direction. \nCanada’s Energy Future contributes analysis and data to help inform Canada’s \nenergy dialogue for policy makers, the energy industry, and Canadians looking to \nmake informed energy choices.\nAdditional CER work is underway to support Canada’s emission reduction \nambitions, beyond the energy information we provide to Canadians. For example, \nin collaboration with Natural Resources Canada, we are working to develop a \nregulatory framework for renewable energy projects and power lines in Canada’s \noffshore areas, an activity within the CER’s regulatory responsibility. We are also \nworking to make sure we are ready to oversee the transportation of hydrogen \nby pipeline should such a facility be proposed within the CER’s jurisdiction. \nIn addition, we recently updated the GHG emissions and climate change \ninformation that companies need to provide the CER when they are seeking \napproval for a project.Consultation and collaboration have always been key to the success of the \nCanada’s Energy Future series. Our work is better when we hear the perspectives \nof others. Over the past 18 months we have sought advice and feedback from \nexperts within the federal government, particularly Natural Resources Canada \nand Environment and Climate Change Canada. We also sought advice from \nsome of the top energy system modeling experts outside of government, both \nin Canada and internationally. Finally, many experts responded to a technical \ndiscussion paper and survey on our preliminary approach. I would like to thank all \nof those who participated in these activities.\nI would like to close by thanking the dedicated staff at the CER who contributed \nto EF2023. This report is the CER’s latest contribution to the very important public \ndialogue on what the pathways to net-zero might look like. I am excited to share \nthese scenarios with Canadians and look forward to the interesting discussions \nahead as we navigate Canada’s dynamic energy\xa0future.\nGitane De Silva,  \nChief Executive Officer  \nCanada Energy Regulator4\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORExecutive Summary\nCanada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and \nDemand Projections to 2050 (EF2023) is the latest \nlong-term energy outlook from the\xa0Canada Energy \nRegulator\xa0(CER). \nThe Canada’s Energy Future\xa0series explores how possible energy futures \nmight unfold for Canadians over the long term. \nEF2023 focuses on the challenge of achieving net-zero greenhouse \ngas (GHG) emissions by 2050. We explore net-zero scenarios to help \nCanadians and policy makers see what a net-zero world could look like, \nvisualize the goal, and make informed decisions. Our scenarios cover all \nenergy commodities and all Canadian provinces and territories. We use \neconomic and energy models to do this analysis.\nThe results in EF2023 are not predictions about the future, nor \nare they policy recommendations . Rather, they are the product of \nscenarios based on a specific premise and set of assumptions. \nRelying on just one scenario to understand the energy outlook implies too \nmuch certainty about what could happen in the future.\n5\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIn EF2023 the end point of our analysis is predetermined: net-zero GHG emissions \nby 2050. We then explore the question, “what might a pathway to that end point look \nlike?” Previous Canada’s Energy Future reports contained scenarios assessing how \nvarying levels of future climate action might affect Canada’s energy future. In those \nreports, we did not limit the outcome of our scenarios based on a particular goal \nor\xa0target. \nEF2023 contains three scenarios: Global Net-zero, Canada Net-zero, \nand\xa0Current\xa0Measures \nIn the Global Net-zero Scenario, we assume Canada achieves net-zero emissions by \n2050. We also assume the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit global \nwarming to 1.5 Celsius (°C). In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, Canada also achieves \nnet-zero emissions by 2050, but the rest of the world moves more slowly to reduce \nGHG emissions. \nThe pace of action outside of Canada to reduce GHG emissions is the main \ndifference between the net-zero scenarios in EF2023. As a trading nation, what \nhappens globally affects Canada’s economy and energy system. EF2023 focuses \non Canada, and we do not model global energy markets for the scenarios. Instead, \ninternational factors relevant to the Canadian energy outlook, such as global prices \nfor crude oil and natural gas, and costs for many low-carbon technologies, are inputs \ninto our models. For some of these inputs, we rely on scenarios from the International \nEnergy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2022.\nThe third scenario, the Current Measures Scenario, assumes limited action in Canada \nto reduce GHG emissions beyond measures in place today and does not require that \nCanada achieve net-zero emissions. In this scenario we also assume limited future \nglobal climate action. Figure ES.1 shows the three scenarios.\n6\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORFigure ES.1: \nIllustration of the scenarios in EF2023\nFive “What if” cases explore uncertainties on the path to net-zero\nIn addition to the three main scenarios in EF2023, you will find five cases in this report that ask: “What if?” There are many uncertainties on the pathway to net-zero. \nThese cases explore some of them by changing some key assumptions in EF2023 and showing what it could mean for Canada’s pathway to net-zero. \n• What if the technologies to enable wide-scale adoption of hydrogen are more or less costly?\n• What if small modular reactor (SMR) technology matures less quickly and is more costly?\n• What if direct air capture (DAC) technology matures more quickly and is less costly?\n• What if carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology does not mature as quickly and is more costly?\n• What if electricity vehicle charging patterns result in higher peak electricity demand?7\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIn our net-zero scenarios, the types of energy \nCanadians use changes dramatically, including \nusing\xa0a lot more electricity.1Key Findings\nThe energy system in 2050 is very different than it is today in both of \nour net-zero scenarios. We project that electricity becomes the most \nimportant end-use energy source while the use of fossil fuels falls \nsignificantly. \nAs shown in Figure ES.2, electricity, hydrogen, and biofuels make up a \nmuch greater share of energy use. By 2050, we project that electricity \nmakes up 41% of total end-use energy consumption in the Global Net-\nzero Scenario, and 39% in the Canada Net-zero Scenario, up from 17% \nin 2021. \nHydrogen and biofuels emerge as important alternatives when \nelectricity may\xa0not be the best option to use, for example in heavy \nfreight transportation, aviation, or certain industrial processes. By 2050, \nhydrogen makes up 12% of the energy mix and biofuels make up another \n13% in the Global Net-zero\xa0Scenario.\nWith greater use of low and non-emitting energy sources, fossil fuel use \ndrops by 65% from 2021 to 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario, and by \n56% in the Canada Net-zero Scenario. Fossil fuels still play an important \npart in the energy system, with much of the fossil fuel in 2050 used at \nindustrial facilities outfitted with carbon capture technology, or for non-\nenergy use like asphalt, lubricants, and petrochemicals.\n8\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIn both net-zero scenarios, electricity use more than \ndoubles from 2021 to 2050, becoming the dominant \nenergy source in the energy system. This is because \nmany energy technologies we use today are steadily \nreplaced with devices that do the same things but \nuse electricity instead, like electric vehicles replacing \nvehicles with internal combustion engines and heat \npumps replacing gas and oil furnaces. Many industries, \nlike iron and steel and manufacturing, also switch to \nusing more electricity. Finally, producing hydrogen \nand capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) directly from the \natmosphere further increase electricity use later in the \nprojection period. In many instances, using electricity \nis much more efficient than using fossil fuels, and \ncontributes to energy use decreasing by 22% from \n2021 to 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario. Figure \nES.3 shows electricity use by sector in the Global Net-\nzero Scenario.\nWhile the types of fuels and technologies that shape \nour energy system change considerably over the next \n27 years, we project little change to the energy services \nCanadians receive in both net-zero scenarios. Energy \nservices are not the energy or technologies we use, \nbut rather the things that energy enables us to do, \nlike heat our homes, travel from place to place, or run \nequipment at a business. In 2050, Canadians continue \nto comfortably heat and cool their homes, get around \nhow they prefer, and have their electricity needs met.Figure ES.2:\nEnd-use energy use, by fuel, all scenarios \nFigure ES.3:\nElectricity use by sector, Global Net-zero Scenario\n9\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORThe electricity system, which decarbonizes by 2035 \nand achieves net-negative emissions thereafter, is the \nbackbone of our net-zero scenarios.2\nIn both net-zero scenarios, the electricity sector transforms to \naccommodate increasing electricity use while also rapidly decarbonizing \nelectricity production. By 2050 in both net-zero scenarios, more than \n99% of electricity is from non- or low-emission technologies. We project \nthat wind, nuclear power, hydro, natural gas with CCUS, bioenergy with \ncarbon capture and storage (BECCS), and solar make up most of the \nnew generation growth over the projection period. Meanwhile, fossil fuel \ngeneration without CCUS declines swiftly in response to increasingly strong \nclimate policies. The sector achieves net-zero emissions by 2035 and \nbecomes net-negative thereafter, a result of using BECCS.\nCanada’s electricity system is regionally diverse, with the generation mix \nlargely determined by the resources available in each province or territory. \nMany regions already have low-emitting electricity systems while others rely \nmore on fossil fuels. This variation means that the transition of the electricity \nsector in each region is unique. Each region capitalizes on their own \nresources and technological expertise to drive the electricity sector towards \nnet-zero.\n10\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORAs shown in Figure ES.4, among all technologies, wind \ncontributes the greatest amount of new generation \nby 2050, increasing ninefold from current levels in the \nGlobal Net-zero Scenario. Wind increases it share of \ngeneration in most provinces, with significant growth in \nAlberta, Saskatchewan, British Columbia, and Ontario. \nGeneration from hydroelectricity, currently the largest \nsource of generation in Canada, increases by 26% \nfrom 2021 to 2050, largely in provinces that currently \nhave significant hydroelectric resources already. \nNatural gas-fired generation with CCUS becomes \na key source of power, particularly in Alberta and \nSaskatchewan, where it makes up 13% of generation \nin those provinces by 2050 in the Global Net-zero \nScenario. Nuclear generation, in the form of small \nmodular reactors (SMRs), increases significantly in the \n2040 to 2050 period, with strong growth in Ontario and \ndeployment in many other provinces. Solar generation \nincreases steadily in both net-zero scenarios, making \nup 5% of total generation by 2050.\nWe project that the electricity sector reaches net-zero \nGHG emissions by 2035 in both net-zero scenarios \nand, after that, becomes net-negative due the use of \nBECCS. Negative emissions are achieved by burning \nbiomass to generate power and then capturing and \npermanently storing the CO2 which would otherwise \nbe released naturally when the plants die. By 2050, net \nemissions from the power sector are -36 megatonnes \n(MT) in the Global Net-zero Scenario, as shown in \nFigure ES.5.Figure ES.4: \nChange in electricity generation from 2021 to 2050, by fuel, Global Net-zero Scenario\nFigure ES.5: \nGHG emissions from the electricity sector, by fuel, Global Net-zero Scenario\n11\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOR\nA portfolio of emerging technologies plays a key role \nin our net-zero scenarios, especially to address more \ndifficult-to-reduce emissions.3\nFor some energy uses, switching to electricity is not possible or less \neffective than other low- or non-emitting options. In both net-zero \nscenarios, a portfolio of options plays important supporting roles, \nincluding CCUS, hydrogen, negative emission technologies and nature-\nbased solutions.\nAs shown in Figure ES.6, CCUS is used to capture CO2 emissions from \nthe electricity, heavy industry, and oil and gas sectors in both net-zero \nscenarios. By 2050, nearly 60 MT of CO2 are captured from these sectors \nusing CCUS in the Global Net-zero Scenario, which is about 9% of \nCanada’s total GHG emissions in 2021. In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, \nalmost 80 MT of CO2 are captured by 2050, as there are more emissions \nto be captured from the greater amount of fuel used to produce oil and \nnatural gas. 12\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORA robust hydrogen economy develops in both net-\nzero scenarios. Most hydrogen is used in heavy freight \nvehicles and in industries like chemicals, iron and \nsteel, and petroleum refining. We project hydrogen use \nreaches over 8.5 MT by 2050 in the Global Net-zero \nScenario, or 12% of total energy use. We also assume \nan additional 5 MT of hydrogen exports in the Global \nNet-zero Scenario. Combined, Canada produces \nnearly 14 MT of hydrogen by 2050 in the Global Net-\nzero scenario, and slightly more in the Canada Net-\nzero Scenario. We project hydrogen production from \na variety of technologies including using natural gas \nas a feedstock along with CCUS, electrolysis using \nwater and electricity, and biomass-based processes, \nas shown in Figure ES.7. Biomass-based hydrogen \nproduction, when coupled with CCUS, results in net-\nnegative GHG emissions much like BECCS electricity \ngeneration. \nDespite all sectors significantly reducing emissions, \nseveral sectors, like buildings, heavy industry and oil \nand gas still have positive GHG emissions by 2050 in \nboth net-zero scenarios. Technologies like BECCS and \ndirect air capture, as well as nature-based solutions, \nresult in negative emissions by 2050 in both net-zero \nscenarios, allowing emissions to balance to zero. By \n2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario, we project -36 \nMT net-negative emissions from the electricity sector, \n-21 MT from hydrogen production using biomass with \nCCUS, and -46 MT from direct air capture technology. \nWe also assume 50 MT of negative emissions from \nland use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). Figure ES.6: \nGHG emissions captured and permanently stored from fossil fuel combustion and \nindustrial processes, by sector, Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios \nFigure ES.7: \nHydrogen production by technology, Global Net-zero Scenario\n13\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORCanada’s oil and natural gas industry significantly \nreduces its emissions in our net-zero scenarios and, \nwhile production declines, the pace of global climate \naction determines by how much.4\nIn both net-zero scenarios, GHG emissions from producing and \nprocessing oil and natural gas decrease approximately 90% by 2050 \ncompared to 2021. We project that increasingly strong climate policies \nresult in the adoption of CCUS, technological and process improvements \nto dramatically reduce methane emissions, efficiency improvements, \nand reliance on electricity where feasible. Ultimately, falling production in \nresponse to much lower crude oil and natural gas prices in the Global \nNet-zero Scenario is also a key driver of decreasing emissions.\nIn EF2023, the assumptions we make about the price of crude oil and \nnatural gas have the largest impact on our projections for Canadian oil \nand gas production. Those prices are different in each scenario and are \ndriven by the pace of global climate action in the future and the resulting \namount of global demand for oil and natural gas. \nIn the Global Net-zero Scenario, we assume that global prices of oil \nand natural gas fall steeply in response to declining global demand for \nfossil fuels over the coming decades. In this scenario, we project that \nCanadian crude oil production falls to 1.2 million barrels per day (MMb/d) \n(194 thousand cubic metres per day (10³m³/d)) by 2050, 76% lower than \nin 2022 as shown in Figure ES.8. As shown in Figure ES.9, natural gas \nproduction falls by 68% over the same period, reaching 5.5 billion cubic \nfeet per day (Bcf/d) (156 million cubic metres per day (106m³/d)) by 2050.\n14\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIn the Canada Net-zero Scenario, prices fall less than in \nthe Global Net-zero Scenario, a result of less ambitious \nglobal climate action, which results in higher global \ndemand for fossil fuels. We project that oil production \nfalls to 3.9 MMb/d (623 10³m³/d) by 2050, 22% lower \nthan in 2022, and natural gas production falls to \n11.0\xa0Bcf/d (310 106m³/d), 37% lower than in\xa02022. \nIn the Current Measures Scenario, where prices are \nhighest and future climate action is the least ambitious, \ncrude oil and natural gas production are the highest, \nand so are emissions from the sector. Crude oil \nproduction reaches 6.1 MMb/d (964 10³m³/d) by 2050, \n20% higher than in 2022. Production of natural gas \ngrows to 21.5 Bcf/d (607 106m³/d), a 24% increase \nover the projection period. Figure ES.8: \nCrude oil production, all scenarios \nFigure ES.9: \nNatural gas production, all scenarios\n15\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORReaching net-zero in our scenarios is driven by increasingly strong climate policies, in Canada and abroad.5\nBoth the Global and Canada Net-zero scenarios achieve net-zero GHG \nemissions by 2050, a pre-determined outcome given the nature of the \nanalysis. Large emission reductions occur across the economy, with all \nsectors contributing to achieving net-zero. Figure ES.10 shows emissions by \neconomic sector over the projection period in the Global Net-zero Scenario, \nwith positive emissions from some sectors being offset by negative emissions \nin other sectors by 2050. The emission trends are similar in the Canada Net-\nzero Scenario.\nContinued increases in the strength of climate policies in Canada is the key \ndriver of emission reductions over the coming decades in both net-zero \nscenarios. Our modeling shows that the pace of climate action in Canada will \nneed to continue to increase in the 2030 to 2050 period in order to achieve \nnet-zero emissions by 2050. This is in contrast to the Current Measures Scenario, where domestic climate \naction does not increase beyond those measures currently in place today. \nIn that scenario, we project that GHG emissions are just 13% lower in 2050 \nthan they were in 2021. \nAction to reduce emissions globally also plays an important role in our \nprojections and what the paths to net-zero look like in our scenarios. \nDepending on the scenario, we assume that climate policies around the \nworld drive technological innovation and create markets for low-carbon \ntechnologies. This innovation and market development results in our \nassumption of lower costs and better performance for low emission \ntechnologies in the net-zero scenarios. In addition, global climate action also \nfactors into our projections by influencing the prices and exports of energy \nwe produce, which are key drivers of our scenarios.\nFigure ES.10: \nGHG emissions by economic sector, Global Net-zero Scenario16\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORIntroduction\nCanada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply \nand Demand Projections to 2050 (EF2023) is \nthe latest long-term energy outlook from the\xa0  \nCanada Energy Regulator\xa0(CER).\nThe Canada’s Energy Future\xa0series\xa0explores how possible energy futures \nmight unfold for Canadians over the long term. We use economic and \nenergy models to explore how supply and demand for energy could \nevolve. EF2023 is the CER’s first long-term outlook that models scenarios \nwhere Canada reaches net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by \n2050. To model net-zero, we begin with the end goal in mind—net-zero \nGHG emissions in 2050—and use our models to identify pathways to that \npoint. This is a different approach compared to past versions of the report \nwhere we ran our models without restrictions, giving us insights into what \na given premise meant for the future.\n17\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATOREF2023 includes three scenarios, two that reach net-zero by 2050\nEF2023 contains three scenarios. Two of these scenarios explore pathways \nwhere Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050. In the Global Net-zero \nScenario, we assume Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050. We \nalso assume the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit global \nwarming to 1.5 Celsius (°C). In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, Canada also \nachieves net-zero emissions by 2050 but the rest of the world moves more \nslowly to reduce GHG emissions. The third scenario, the Current Measures \nScenario, assumes limited action to reduce GHG emissions beyond measures \nin place today. In this scenario, we do not require our modeling results achieve \nnet-zero GHG emissions in Canada by 2050. We also assume limited future \nglobal climate action.\nFive “What if” cases explore uncertainties on the path to net-zero \nIn addition to the three main scenarios in EF2023, you will find five cases in \nthis report that ask: “What if?” There are many uncertainties on the pathway \nto net-zero. These cases explore some of them by changing some key \nassumptions in EF2023 and showing what it could mean for Canada’s \npathway to net-zero: \n• What if the technologies to enable wide-scale adoption of hydrogen are \nmore or less costly?\n• What if small modular reactor (SMR) technology matures less quickly \nand is more costly?\n• What if direct air capture (DAC) technology matures more quickly and is \nless costly?\n• What if carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology \ndoes not mature as quickly and is more costly?\n• What if electricity vehicle charging patterns result in higher peak \nelectricity demand?\n18\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORWe have been working to improve our analytical tools over the past several years \nto ensure we are up to the challenge of modeling net-zero. In late 2021, the \nHonourable Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Natural Resources and the Minister \nresponsible for the CER, wrote\xa0a letter\xa0to the Chairperson of the CER’s Board of \nDirectors, Cassie Doyle. The letter requested that the CER undertake scenario \nanalysis consistent with Canada achieving net-zero emissions1 by 2050 as soon \nas possible. Minister Wilkinson requested that the analysis:\n• Include fully modelled scenarios of supply and demand for all energy \ncommodities in Canada.\n• Be consistent with a global context in which the world achieves its Paris \nAccord goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C.\n• Consider relevant uncertainties, including future trends in low-carbon \ntechnology and energy markets.\nIn her\xa0response, Chairperson Doyle welcomed the clarity provided by the \nMinister’s letter and confirmed the next Canada’s Energy Future report will include \nnet-zero scenarios.\nConsultation and collaboration have always been key to the Canada’s Energy \nFuture series. We sought advice and feedback from various experts throughout \nthe process, with the goal of validating our approach, assumptions, and \npreliminary results to ensure EF2023 was technically robust and credible.\nFederal departments, particularly Natural Resources Canada and Environment \nand Climate Change Canada, played an important role in supporting the EF2023 \nanalysis. While the CER is ultimately accountable for the content of EF2023, both \norganizations supported our efforts by contributing substantial technical expertise \nto the analysis. This collaboration ensured we had the best possible information \nabout the latest technologies and climate policy developments. The CER would \nlike to thank both organizations for their steadfast support in this endeavor.\n1 The term “net-zero emissions” refers to a state where human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are balanced by human-caused removals of GHGs from the atmosphere. GHG emissions include all gases that have heat-trapping \npotential including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and various other gases. The Canadian Energy Regulator Act (CER Act) is the foundation for \nnearly all that we do. Our Strategic Plan aligns with the mandate set out \nin the CER Act and describes our mission as:\nRegulating federal infrastructure to ensure safe and efficient delivery \nof energy to Canada and the world, protecting the environment, \nrecognizing, and respecting the rights of the Indigenous Peoples, \nand\xa0providing timely and relevant energy information and analysis.\nThe CER’s Board of Directors sets the\xa0strategic direction of \nour\xa0organization. The Board of Directors supported the CER taking on \nthe challenge of modeling net-zero and provided strategic direction for \nEF2023 throughout the exercise. \nCore to the governance of our organization is a clear separation between \nthe operational and adjudicative functions of the CER. The CER’s \nenergy information work, which includes EF2023, is separate from the \nadjudicative role of the Commission of the CER.\nThe Commission is responsible for making independent adjudicative \ndecisions and recommendations pursuant to the CER Act and other \nlegislation. The Commission considers each matter before it based on \nthe evidence parties submit in a proceeding. If a party wishes to rely on \nmaterial from EF2023 in a regulatory proceeding before the CER, it may \nsubmit the material, just as it may submit any public document. Under \nthese circumstances, the submitting party in effect adopts the material \nand that party could be required to answer questions pertaining to \nthe\xa0material.19\nCANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2023 – CANADA ENERGY REGULATORWe also sought advice from some of the top experts \noutside of government, both in Canada and internationally. \nConversations with experts from organizations like the \nInternational Energy Agency , Canadian Climate Institute, \nand Institut de l’énergie Trottier were instrumental to \nensuring our approach was sound. We deeply appreciate \ntheir advice.\nThe CER would also like to thank the many experts who \nresponded to a technical discussion paper and survey \non our preliminary approach in the Spring of 2022. This \nearly feedback on our project was important in setting the \ndirection of our work. A summary of that engagement is \non our website: Discussion Paper Results – A Summary of \nWhat we Heard.\nWe base the projections in EF2023 on several important \nassumptions, which we outline in the Scenarios and \nAssumptions chapter. The Results chapter describes our \nprojections of the Canadian energy system to 2050 for \neach of the three scenarios. Finally, the Access and Explore \nEnergy Futures Data chapter links to data, tools, and \ninteractive data visualizations that offer further insight into \nEF2023.The Scope of EF2023\nThe projections in EF2023 are based primarily on economic and technical factors. This \nincludes economic activity, relevant policies, technology performance and costs, energy \ncosts, and the characteristics of various energy devices. Our models simulate the decision-\nmaking of households and businesses based on those factors, which differ in each of our \nscenarios. \nThe future of energy in Canada is, however, much broader than the economic and \ntechnical factors driving the projections in EF2023 . Many of these are beyond the \nscope of our analysis. These include evolving societal preferences, regulatory frameworks \nand decisions, socioeconomic and affordability considerations, and the interaction between \nthe energy transition and Canada's journey towards Reconciliation.\nAn example would be the choices our model makes regarding the type of power generating \nfacilities that might be built to meet growing electricity demand in a given year. Our model \nsimulates what technology is likely to be chosen based on the upfront costs of various \noptions, future fuel costs, the impact on grid stability and any relevant policy considerations, \nsuch as carbon pricing.\nGiven our assumptions, the model might suggest that building a wind farm, for example, \nis the optimal outcome. However, the process to build such a faci"
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the second prompt
response3 = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model_35,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful  assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt3[:min(len(prompt3),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput3 = response3.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput3)
Policy Summary:

1. Canada's Energy Future 2023 report explores pathways to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050.
2. The report includes three scenarios: Global Net-zero, Canada Net-zero, and Current Measures.
3. In the net-zero scenarios, electricity becomes the cornerstone of the energy system, with increased use of electric vehicles and heat pumps.
4. Low-carbon fuels like hydrogen and biofuels play a significant role in achieving net-zero emissions.
5. Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology is used to reduce emissions in industries and the power generation sector.
6. The electricity sector decarbonizes by 2035 and achieves net-negative emissions thereafter, with wind, nuclear power, hydro, and solar contributing to generation growth.
7. Canada's oil and natural gas industry reduces emissions by approximately 90% by 2050, driven by CCUS and technological improvements.
8. The pace of global climate action influences the prices and demand for fossil fuels, impacting Canadian oil and gas production.
9. Strong climate policies and increased global climate action are crucial for achieving net-zero emissions.
10. The projections in the report are based on economic and technical factors and do not consider societal preferences, regulatory frameworks, or Reconciliation efforts.

Please note that this summary is based on the provided text and may not capture all the details of the report. For a comprehensive understanding, it is recommended to refer to the original Canada's Energy Future 2023 report.
In [ ]:
prompt4 = "I want to compare the energy related policies in Switzerland and Canada based on their policy summary. I will provide you with the summary, \
and you will create two list of comparison result of policy summary for how Canada and Switzerland implemented or plan their energy usage or other relative \
policies related to energy. One list for similarity and one list for difference, especially what Canada didn't do. Your answer should be shown in list, starting \
from 1. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text. You should not include any personal opinions or \
interpretations in your summary, but rather focus on objectively presenting the information from the inout. Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, \
and accurately reflects the content of the original text. \
The policy for Switzerland is: '{input1} and {input2}'. The policy for Canada is: {input3}.".format(input1 = coutput1, input2 = coutput2, input3 = coutput3)

# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt4[:min(len(prompt3),40000)]
Out[ ]:
'I want to compare the energy related policies in Switzerland and Canada based on their policy summary. I will provide you with the summary, and you will create two list of comparison result of policy summary for how Canada and Switzerland implemented or plan their energy usage or other relative policies related to energy. One list for similarity and one list for difference, especially what Canada didn\'t do. Your answer should be shown in list, starting from 1. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and objectively communicate the key points of the text. You should not include any personal opinions or interpretations in your summary, but rather focus on objectively presenting the information from the inout. Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, and accurately reflects the content of the original text. The policy for Switzerland is: \'After reviewing the provided links, here\'s a summary of Switzerland\'s energy-related policies:\n\n1. Energy Strategy 2050: Switzerland\'s Federal Council developed the "Energy Strategy 2050" in response to the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011. The strategy aims to reduce energy consumption, increase energy efficiency, and promote renewable energies. It also plans to gradually phase out nuclear power. The strategy is based on amending the Energy Act (EnA) and implementing a series of measures, including building regulations, requirements for appliances, and support for renewable energies.\n\n2. CO2 Act: The CO2 Act in Switzerland aims to reduce CO2 emissions and contribute to global efforts to limit climate change. The act was first introduced in 1999 and has been revised multiple times to set stricter emission targets. The most recent revision in 2021 set a goal to reduce CO2 emissions by 50% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The act includes measures such as a CO2 levy on fossil fuels, emission standards for cars, and a climate cent on airline tickets.\n\n3. Promotion of Renewable Energy: Switzerland promotes the use of renewable energy through feed-in tariffs and investment aid. The government supports the production of electricity from hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal energy, as well as from biomass and waste. The goal is to increase the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.\n\n4. Energy Efficiency: Switzerland has implemented various measures to improve energy efficiency. For example, the government has set minimum energy performance standards for appliances and vehicles, and introduced building regulations to reduce energy consumption in buildings. The government also promotes the use of energy-efficient technologies and practices in industries.\n\n5. Nuclear Energy Policy: Switzerland has decided to gradually phase out nuclear energy. The country will not build new nuclear power plants and will shut down existing ones at the end of their safe operational life. The government is also investing in research and development of new energy technologies as alternatives to nuclear power.\n\n6. International Cooperation: Switzerland is actively involved in international energy cooperation. The country is a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and participates in various international energy forums and initiatives. Switzerland also supports energy projects in developing countries through its international cooperation programs. \n\n7. Regulatory Framework: The Swiss Federal Electricity Commission (ElCom) is responsible for regulating the electricity market, ensuring non-discriminatory access to the grid, and monitoring electricity supply security. The Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) is responsible for implementing the government\'s energy policy.\n\nIn conclusion, Switzerland\'s energy policies focus on reducing energy consumption, promoting renewable energies, improving energy efficiency, phasing out nuclear power, and reducing CO2 emissions. The country has set clear targets and implemented various measures to achieve these goals. and Summary of Energy Related Policies in Switzerland:\n\n1. The Swiss government implemented the Stromversorgungsgesetz (StromVG) in 2004, which aimed to open up the Swiss electricity market. It included provisions for the gradual liberalization of the market, starting with larger consumers and eventually extending to households.\n\n2. The StromVG also introduced measures to promote renewable energy and energy efficiency. It set a target for the increase of renewable energy generation by at least 5.4 billion kilowatt-hours by 2030, which is equivalent to around 10% of the current electricity consumption.\n\n3. The Swiss government established EnergieSchweiz as a central platform for raising awareness, providing information, and offering advice on energy efficiency and renewable energy. EnergieSchweiz focuses on three priority areas: building efficiency and renewable energy for households, mobility for households and businesses, and industrial and service sector processes.\n\n4. EnergieSchweiz aims to reduce non-price barriers and transaction costs that hinder energy efficiency measures and the use of renewable energy. It works with private households, businesses, and the public sector to promote behavioral changes and the adoption of energy-efficient technologies.\n\n5. The program emphasizes collaboration with partners, including cantons, cities, municipalities, and other stakeholders. It also supports research and innovation in the energy sector, with a focus on market-ready solutions and the creation of sustainable jobs.\n\n6. EnergieSchweiz is regularly evaluated to ensure its effectiveness and to adapt to changing market dynamics and technological advancements. It prioritizes flexibility and agility in responding to new developments in the energy market.\n\n7. The program is aligned with the goals of the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050, which aims to reduce energy consumption, increase the share of renewable energy, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.\n\n8. EnergieSchweiz collaborates with other government agencies, such as the Federal Office for the Environment (BAFU) and the Federal Office for Roads (ASTRA), to integrate climate protection measures and address the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.\n\nOverall, Switzerland\'s energy policies focus on market liberalization, promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency, and fostering collaboration among stakeholders to achieve sustainable energy goals.\'. The policy for Canada is: Policy Summary:\n\n1. Canada\'s Energy Future 2023 report explores pathways to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050.\n2. The report includes three scenarios: Global Net-zero, Canada Net-zero, and Current Measures.\n3. In the net-zero scenarios, electricity becomes the cornerstone of the energy system, with increased use of electric vehicles and heat pumps.\n4. Low-carbon fuels like hydrogen and biofuels play a significant role in achieving net-zero emissions.\n5. Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology is used to reduce emissions in industries and the power generation sector.\n6. The electricity sector decarbonizes by 2035 and achieves net-negative emissions thereafter, with wind, nuclear power, hydro, and solar contributing to generation growth.\n7. Canada\'s oil and natural gas industry reduces emissions by approximately 90% by 2050, driven by CCUS and technological improvements.\n8. The pace of global climate action influences the prices and demand for fossil fuels, impacting Canadian oil and gas production.\n9. Strong climate policies and increased global climate action are crucial for achieving net-zero emissions.\n10. The projections in the report are based on economic and technical factors and do not consider societal preferences, regulatory frameworks, or Reconciliation efforts.\n\nPlease note that this summary is based on the provided text and may not capture all the details of the report. For a comprehensive understanding, it is recommended to refer to the original Canada\'s Energy Future 2023 report..'
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the second prompt
response4 = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful  assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt4[:min(len(prompt4),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput4 = response4.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput4)
Similarities:
1. Both countries are focused on reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and have set clear targets for achieving this goal.
2. Switzerland and Canada are both promoting the use of renewable energy sources. Switzerland is doing this through feed-in tariffs and investment aid, while Canada is focusing on electricity, with wind, nuclear power, hydro, and solar contributing to generation growth.
3. Both countries are taking measures to increase energy efficiency. Switzerland has set minimum energy performance standards for appliances and vehicles, and introduced building regulations to reduce energy consumption in buildings. Canada is focusing on the increased use of electric vehicles and heat pumps.
4. Both Switzerland and Canada are involved in international energy cooperation. Switzerland is a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and participates in various international energy forums and initiatives, while Canada's energy future is influenced by the pace of global climate action.
5. Both countries have regulatory frameworks in place for implementing their energy policies. In Switzerland, the Swiss Federal Electricity Commission (ElCom) and the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) are responsible, while in Canada, the projections in the report are based on economic and technical factors.

Differences:
1. While both countries are focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, they have different strategies for achieving this goal. Switzerland's CO2 Act aims to reduce CO2 emissions by 50% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, while Canada's Energy Future 2023 report explores pathways to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
2. Switzerland has decided to gradually phase out nuclear energy, while Canada still includes nuclear power in its mix of renewable energy sources.
3. Canada is focusing on the use of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology to reduce emissions in industries and the power generation sector, which is not mentioned in Switzerland's energy policy.
4. Canada's oil and natural gas industry is expected to reduce emissions by approximately 90% by 2050, driven by CCUS and technological improvements. This industry-specific target is not mentioned in Switzerland's energy policy.
5. Switzerland's energy policy includes a focus on reducing energy consumption, which is not explicitly mentioned in Canada's policy summary.
6. Switzerland has established EnergieSchweiz as a central platform for raising awareness, providing information, and offering advice on energy efficiency and renewable energy. Canada does not have a similar platform mentioned in the policy summary.
7. Switzerland's energy policy includes a CO2 levy on fossil fuels, emission standards for cars, and a climate cent on airline tickets. These specific measures are not mentioned in Canada's energy policy.
8. The Swiss government implemented the Stromversorgungsgesetz (StromVG) in 2004, which aimed to open up the Swiss electricity market. This type of market liberalization is not mentioned in Canada's energy policy.
9. EnergieSchweiz works with private households, businesses, and the public sector to promote behavioral changes and the adoption of energy-efficient technologies. This kind of broad-based public engagement is not explicitly mentioned in Canada's energy policy.
In [ ]:
prompt8 = "GDP/unit of energy use is purchasing power parity gross domestic product (2015 PPP$ GDP) per total energy supply (TES). TES is made up of production + \
imports – exports – international marine bunkers – international aviation bunkers +/− stock changes. GDP/TES is an indicator of energy productivity. A higher \
GDP/unit of energy use means less energy is wasted or more energy is used efficiently. In this respect, Switzerland is much better than Canada. Comparing the \
energy policies of Switzerland and Canada, we draw the following similarities and differences:\
Similarities: \
1. Both countries are focused on reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and have set clear targets for achieving this goal. \
2. Switzerland and Canada are both promoting the use of renewable energy sources. Switzerland is doing this through feed-in tariffs and investment aid, while Canada is focusing on electricity, with wind, nuclear power, hydro, and solar contributing to generation growth. \
3. Both countries are taking measures to increase energy efficiency. Switzerland has set minimum energy performance standards for appliances and vehicles, and introduced building regulations to reduce energy consumption in buildings. Canada is focusing on the increased use of electric vehicles and heat pumps. \
4. Both Switzerland and Canada are involved in international energy cooperation. Switzerland is a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and participates in various international energy forums and initiatives, while Canada's energy future is influenced by the pace of global climate action. \
5. Both countries have regulatory frameworks in place for implementing their energy policies. In Switzerland, the Swiss Federal Electricity Commission (ElCom) and the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) are responsible, while in Canada, the projections in the report are based on economic and technical factors. \
Differences: \
1. While both countries are focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, they have different strategies for achieving this goal. Switzerland\'s CO2 Act aims to reduce CO2 emissions by 50% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, while Canada's Energy Future 2023 report explores pathways to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. \
2. Switzerland has decided to gradually phase out nuclear energy, while Canada still includes nuclear power in its mix of renewable energy sources. \
3. Canada is focusing on the use of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology to reduce emissions in industries and the power generation sector, which is not mentioned in Switzerland's energy policy. \
4. Canada's oil and natural gas industry is expected to reduce emissions by approximately 90% by 2050, driven by CCUS and technological improvements. This industry-specific target is not mentioned in Switzerland's energy policy. \
5. Switzerland's energy policy includes a focus on reducing energy consumption, which is not explicitly mentioned in Canada's policy summary. \
6. Switzerland has established EnergieSchweiz as a central platform for raising awareness, providing information, and offering advice on energy efficiency and renewable energy. Canada does not have a similar platform mentioned in the policy summary. \
7. Switzerland's energy policy includes a CO2 levy on fossil fuels, emission standards for cars, and a climate cent on airline tickets. These specific measures are not mentioned in Canada's energy policy. \
8. The Swiss government implemented the Stromversorgungsgesetz (StromVG) in 2004, which aimed to open up the Swiss electricity market. This type of market liberalization is not mentioned in Canada's energy policy. \
9. EnergieSchweiz works with private households, businesses, and the public sector to promote behavioral changes and the adoption of energy-efficient technologies. This kind of broad-based public engagement is not explicitly mentioned in Canada's energy policy. \
In order to improve Canada's energy efficiency, reduce energy waste, and improve Canada's sustainability, we hope to improve or propose new policies related to \
energy. Based on these information, your will need to help us develop a proposal with some practical steps \
to do so (e.g. government programs, industry-academic collaboration initiatives, international collaborations and collaborations with Canadians abroad, \
partnerships with multinational companies, tax incentives for R&D projects, defense funding guidelines, funding from international organizations and agencies, \
etc.). Your strategy and practical steps could alsl be tied up with a PR strategy to promote Canada in media and social media. Please be detailed and practical. \
In your answer, you should first give a general proposal about your strategy, and for each strategy, list some practical steps we could implement. Give at least 5\
strategies and 5 practical steps for each. Please do not limited to my example."

# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt8[:40000]
Out[ ]:
"GDP/unit of energy use is purchasing power parity gross domestic product (2015 PPP$ GDP) per total energy supply (TES). TES is made up of production + imports – exports – international marine bunkers – international aviation bunkers +/− stock changes. GDP/TES is an indicator of energy productivity. A higher GDP/unit of energy use means less energy is wasted or more energy is used efficiently. In this respect, Switzerland is much better than Canada. Comparing the energy policies of Switzerland and Canada, we draw the following similarities and differences:Similarities: 1. Both countries are focused on reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and have set clear targets for achieving this goal. 2. Switzerland and Canada are both promoting the use of renewable energy sources. Switzerland is doing this through feed-in tariffs and investment aid, while Canada is focusing on electricity, with wind, nuclear power, hydro, and solar contributing to generation growth. 3. Both countries are taking measures to increase energy efficiency. Switzerland has set minimum energy performance standards for appliances and vehicles, and introduced building regulations to reduce energy consumption in buildings. Canada is focusing on the increased use of electric vehicles and heat pumps. 4. Both Switzerland and Canada are involved in international energy cooperation. Switzerland is a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and participates in various international energy forums and initiatives, while Canada's energy future is influenced by the pace of global climate action. 5. Both countries have regulatory frameworks in place for implementing their energy policies. In Switzerland, the Swiss Federal Electricity Commission (ElCom) and the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) are responsible, while in Canada, the projections in the report are based on economic and technical factors. Differences: 1. While both countries are focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, they have different strategies for achieving this goal. Switzerland's CO2 Act aims to reduce CO2 emissions by 50% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, while Canada's Energy Future 2023 report explores pathways to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. 2. Switzerland has decided to gradually phase out nuclear energy, while Canada still includes nuclear power in its mix of renewable energy sources. 3. Canada is focusing on the use of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology to reduce emissions in industries and the power generation sector, which is not mentioned in Switzerland's energy policy. 4. Canada's oil and natural gas industry is expected to reduce emissions by approximately 90% by 2050, driven by CCUS and technological improvements. This industry-specific target is not mentioned in Switzerland's energy policy. 5. Switzerland's energy policy includes a focus on reducing energy consumption, which is not explicitly mentioned in Canada's policy summary. 6. Switzerland has established EnergieSchweiz as a central platform for raising awareness, providing information, and offering advice on energy efficiency and renewable energy. Canada does not have a similar platform mentioned in the policy summary. 7. Switzerland's energy policy includes a CO2 levy on fossil fuels, emission standards for cars, and a climate cent on airline tickets. These specific measures are not mentioned in Canada's energy policy. 8. The Swiss government implemented the Stromversorgungsgesetz (StromVG) in 2004, which aimed to open up the Swiss electricity market. This type of market liberalization is not mentioned in Canada's energy policy. 9. EnergieSchweiz works with private households, businesses, and the public sector to promote behavioral changes and the adoption of energy-efficient technologies. This kind of broad-based public engagement is not explicitly mentioned in Canada's energy policy. In order to improve Canada's energy efficiency, reduce energy waste, and improve Canada's sustainability, we hope to improve or propose new policies related to energy. Based on these information, your will need to help us develop a proposal with some practical steps to do so (e.g. government programs, industry-academic collaboration initiatives, international collaborations and collaborations with Canadians abroad, partnerships with multinational companies, tax incentives for R&D projects, defense funding guidelines, funding from international organizations and agencies, etc.). Your strategy and practical steps could alsl be tied up with a PR strategy to promote Canada in media and social media. Please be detailed and practical. In your answer, you should first give a general proposal about your strategy, and for each strategy, list some practical steps we could implement. Give at least 5strategies and 5 practical steps for each. Please do not limited to my example."
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the sixth prompt
response8 = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model4,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt8[:min(len(prompt8),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput8 = response8.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput8)
Strategy 1: Strengthen Government Programs for Energy Efficiency

Practical Steps:
1. Develop and implement stricter energy efficiency standards for appliances, vehicles, and buildings, similar to those in Switzerland.
2. Establish a federal agency similar to Switzerland's EnergieSchweiz to raise awareness, provide information, and offer advice on energy efficiency and renewable energy.
3. Introduce a CO2 levy on fossil fuels and emission standards for cars, similar to Switzerland's policy.
4. Promote the use of electric vehicles and heat pumps to reduce energy consumption and emissions.
5. Implement a climate cent on airline tickets to encourage the aviation industry to reduce emissions.

Strategy 2: Enhance Industry-Academic Collaboration

Practical Steps:
1. Establish partnerships between universities and industries to conduct research on energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies.
2. Provide tax incentives for R&D projects focused on energy efficiency and renewable energy.
3. Encourage the development of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology through research grants and partnerships.
4. Promote the development of advanced nuclear power technology through industry-academic collaborations.
5. Encourage the oil and natural gas industry to reduce emissions through technological improvements and CCUS.

Strategy 3: Promote International Collaborations

Practical Steps:
1. Strengthen Canada's involvement in international energy forums and initiatives, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA).
2. Establish partnerships with multinational companies to promote the development and implementation of energy-efficient technologies.
3. Collaborate with Canadians abroad to promote Canada's energy policies and initiatives.
4. Seek funding from international organizations and agencies for energy efficiency and renewable energy projects.
5. Engage in bilateral and multilateral agreements with other countries to share knowledge and best practices on energy efficiency and renewable energy.

Strategy 4: Improve Defense Funding Guidelines

Practical Steps:
1. Prioritize funding for defense projects that incorporate energy-efficient technologies.
2. Encourage the development of renewable energy sources for defense facilities and operations.
3. Implement energy efficiency standards for defense equipment and vehicles.
4. Promote research and development of energy-efficient technologies in the defense sector.
5. Encourage collaboration between the defense sector and the energy industry to develop and implement energy-efficient technologies.

Strategy 5: Develop a Comprehensive PR Strategy

Practical Steps:
1. Launch a nationwide campaign to raise awareness about energy efficiency and renewable energy.
2. Use social media platforms to promote Canada's energy policies and initiatives.
3. Organize events and forums to engage the public in discussions about energy efficiency and renewable energy.
4. Collaborate with media outlets to highlight Canada's efforts in improving energy efficiency and reducing emissions.
5. Promote success stories of businesses and households that have significantly reduced their energy consumption and emissions.
In [ ]:
prompt6 = "I want to extract and summarize the ISO 14001 related policies for UK and Canada. I will provide you with several weblinks, and you will create a \
list of summary of similarities and differences of policy between UK and Canada in implement ISO 14002. Your summary should be detailed and accurately and \
objectively communicate the key points of the text and website. You should not include any personal opinions or interpretations in your summary, but rather focus \
on objectively presenting the information from the report. Please ensure that your summary is clear, concise, and accurately reflects the content of the original \
text and website. The links is: 'https://www.british-assessment.co.uk/insights/what-are-the-iso-14001-requirements/, https://www.british-assessment.co.uk/services/iso-14001/, \
and https://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/ongc-cgsb/programme-program/management/iso/sme-ems/index-eng.html"
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the sixth prompt
response6 = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model4,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt6[:min(len(prompt6),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput6 = response6.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput6)
After reviewing the provided links, below is a summary of the key points related to ISO 14001 policies in the UK and Canada:

UK ISO 14001 Policies:
- The UK's ISO 14001 policies are managed by the British Assessment Bureau, which provides certification services for organizations seeking to implement the standard.
- The ISO 14001 requirements in the UK focus on environmental management systems (EMS) which aim to reduce waste and damage to the environment.
- The standard requires a company to have an environmental policy, objectives for improvement, a plan to achieve these objectives, implementation and operation of the EMS, checking and corrective action, and management review.
- The British Assessment Bureau provides a three-stage process for certification: Gap Analysis, Implementation, and Certification Assessment. 
- The Bureau emphasizes the benefits of ISO 14001 certification, including cost savings, improved environmental performance, enhanced reputation, and compliance with legal and regulatory requirements.

Canada ISO 14001 Policies:
- Canada's ISO 14001 policies are overseen by the Canadian General Standards Board (CGSB), a federal government organization.
- The CGSB provides a Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SME) Toolkit to assist businesses in implementing an EMS based on the ISO 14001 standard.
- The toolkit includes a step-by-step guide to implementing an EMS, including establishing an environmental policy, planning, implementation and operation, checking and corrective action, and management review.
- The CGSB also emphasizes the benefits of ISO 14001 certification, including improved environmental performance, legal compliance, cost savings, and enhanced reputation.

Similarities:
- Both the UK and Canada focus on the implementation of an EMS based on the ISO 14001 standard.
- Both countries provide a step-by-step guide for businesses to implement an EMS.
- Both highlight the benefits of ISO 14001 certification, including improved environmental performance, compliance with legal requirements, cost savings, and enhanced reputation.

Differences:
- The UK's policies are managed by a private organization, the British Assessment Bureau, while Canada's are overseen by a federal government organization, the CGSB.
- The British Assessment Bureau provides a three-stage process for certification, whereas the CGSB provides a SME Toolkit to assist businesses in implementing an EMS.
In [ ]:
prompt7 = "ISO 14001 sets out the criteria for an environmental management system and can be certified to. It maps out a framework that a company or organization \
can follow to set up an effective environmental management system. In Canada, only 19 companies regiested, while in UK, 529,853 organizations regiested in 2022. \
In order to improve the sustainability of businesses and organizations and promote green environmental protection, we hope to introduce policies in Canada to \
encourage more companies or organizations to apply for ISO 14001 certification. Therefore, your will need to help us develop a proposal with some practical steps \
to do so (e.g. government programs, industry-academic collaboration initiatives, international collaborations and collaborations with Canadians abroad, \
partnerships with multinational companies, tax incentives for R&D projects, defense funding guidelines, funding from international organizations and agencies, \
etc.). Your strategy and practical steps could alsl be tied up with a PR strategy to promote Canada in media and social media. Please be detailed and practical. \
In your answer, you should first give a general proposal about your strategy, and for each strategy, list some practical steps we could implement. Give at least 5\
strategies and 5 practical steps for each"

# use the materials of countries that are doing better, and compare with canada and make conclusions
prompt7[:40000]
Out[ ]:
'ISO 14001 sets out the criteria for an environmental management system and can be certified to. It maps out a framework that a company or organization can follow to set up an effective environmental management system. In Canada, only 19 companies regiested, while in UK, 529,853 organizations regiested in 2022. In order to improve the sustainability of businesses and organizations and promote green environmental protection, we hope to introduce policies in Canada to encourage more companies or organizations to apply for ISO 14001 certification. Therefore, your will need to help us develop a proposal with some practical steps to do so (e.g. government programs, industry-academic collaboration initiatives, international collaborations and collaborations with Canadians abroad, partnerships with multinational companies, tax incentives for R&D projects, defense funding guidelines, funding from international organizations and agencies, etc.). Your strategy and practical steps could alsl be tied up with a PR strategy to promote Canada in media and social media. Please be detailed and practical. In your answer, you should first give a general proposal about your strategy, and for each strategy, list some practical steps we could implement. Give at least 5strategies and 5 practical steps for each'
In [ ]:
# Call OpenAI API for the sixth prompt
response7 = openai.chat.completions.create(
    model=model4,
    messages=[
    {"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful assistant."},
    {"role": "user", "content": prompt7[:min(len(prompt7),40000)]},
    ],
    max_tokens=max_tokens,
    n=n,
    stop=stop,
    temperature=temperature,
)

coutput7 = response7.choices[0].message.content
print(coutput7)
Strategy 1: Government Programs
Practical Steps:
1. Develop a program that offers grants or subsidies to companies who achieve ISO 14001 certification. This could be a percentage of the costs involved in achieving certification or a flat rate.
2. Create a mentorship program where companies who have achieved ISO 14001 certification guide others through the process. This could be incentivized with tax breaks or other benefits for the mentoring company.
3. Introduce legislation that requires certain industries or companies of a certain size to achieve ISO 14001 certification.
4. Provide free or subsidized training and resources to companies who wish to achieve ISO 14001 certification.
5. Implement an award or recognition program for companies who achieve ISO 14001 certification, providing them with positive publicity and recognition.

Strategy 2: Industry-Academic Collaboration Initiatives
Practical Steps:
1. Partner with universities and colleges to develop courses and programs focused on environmental management systems and ISO 14001 certification.
2. Create internships or co-op programs where students can work with companies seeking ISO 14001 certification.
3. Encourage research and development in environmental management systems through grants and funding.
4. Develop case studies with academic institutions on the benefits of ISO 14001 certification.
5. Host seminars or workshops in collaboration with academic institutions to educate companies about ISO 14001 certification.

Strategy 3: International Collaborations and Collaborations with Canadians Abroad
Practical Steps:
1. Partner with international organizations that promote ISO 14001 certification to share resources and knowledge.
2. Encourage Canadians working abroad to share their experiences with ISO 14001 certification.
3. Develop exchange programs where Canadian companies can learn from international companies who have achieved ISO 14001 certification.
4. Collaborate with international governments to learn from their policies and programs promoting ISO 14001 certification.
5. Use diplomatic channels to promote the importance of ISO 14001 certification internationally.

Strategy 4: Partnerships with Multinational Companies
Practical Steps:
1. Encourage multinational companies operating in Canada to achieve ISO 14001 certification.
2. Develop partnerships with multinational companies who have achieved ISO 14001 certification to mentor Canadian companies.
3. Use multinational companies as case studies to demonstrate the benefits of ISO 14001 certification.
4. Encourage multinational companies to invest in Canadian companies seeking ISO 14001 certification.
5. Develop programs where multinational companies can sponsor the ISO 14001 certification of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Strategy 5: PR Strategy to Promote Canada in Media and Social Media
Practical Steps:
1. Develop a campaign highlighting the benefits of ISO 14001 certification and the steps the Canadian government is taking to promote it.
2. Partner with influencers and celebrities to promote the importance of ISO 14001 certification.
3. Use social media to share success stories of companies who have achieved ISO 14001 certification.
4. Host webinars or live Q&A sessions on social media to educate companies about ISO 14001 certification.
5. Create a hashtag or social media challenge to encourage companies to share their journey towards ISO 14001 certification.

GII: ISO 14001 environment/bn PPP$ GDP

ISO 14001 specifies the requirements for an environmental management system that an organization can use to enhance its environmental performance. ISO 14001 is intended for use by an organization that is seeking to manage its environmental responsibilities in a systematic manner that contributes to the environmental pillar of sustainability. ISO 14001 helps an organization to achieve the intended outcomes of its environmental management system, providing value for the environment, the organization itself and interested parties. Consistent with the organization’s environmental policy, the intended outcomes of an environmental management system include enhancement of environmental performance, fulfillment of compliance obligations and achievement of environmental objectives. ISO 14001 is applicable to any organization, regardless of size, type or nature, and applies to the environmental aspects of its activities, products and services that the organization determines it can either control or influence from a life-cycle perspective. ISO 14001 does not state specific environmental performance criteria. It can be used in whole or in part to systematically improve environmental management. Claims of conformity to ISO 14001, however, are not acceptable unless all its requirements are incorporated into an organization’s environmental management system and fulfilled without exclusion. The data are reported per billion PPP$ GDP.

Source: International Organization for Standardization, ISO Survey of Certifications to Management System Standards, 2021 (www.iso.org/the-iso-survey.html); and International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2022 (www.imf. org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/October). Data year: 2021.

In Canada, only 19 companies on the regiested list: https://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/ongc-cgsb/programme-program/management/iso/sme-ems/iso-eng.html#iso_table.
529,853 companies regiested: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1x5FrTHlheyq-an1-O-P-up07tax9R58a#scrollTo=O-Q4G_6_YYAz&line=3&uniqifier=1